Will Tom Brady Pass Johnny Unitas in 2011?

[ctpatsfan77]

A couple of people have also mentioned "who cares?" to this poll. Peyton Manning's neck surgery at age 34 is pretty significant stuff and suggests he's looking at the end.

Maybe new polls are worth posing: Will Peyton Manning pass Dan Marino for #2 all time this year? Will Brady ever pass Fran Tarkenton?

Manning has to get healthy and stay healthy, and that offensive line looked terrible against the Green Bay Packers when the starters were in there last night. 21 more passing TDs could be a challenge for Peyton Manning.

The Patriots sure are built for Brady to catch Tarkenton with the offensive line and receiving corps they have, but that means three more years of elite production.

I despise Brett Favre for all his diva/creepy pervy crap, but his 508 career TDs is just a stunning statistic. Brady won't get within 100 of that.

50 a year for 3 years would do the trick.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Gotta hand it to Neil O'Donnell for that - that's a bizarre career category at: NFL Leaders, Football Records, NFL Leaderboards - Pro-Football-Reference.com Don't know what to make of that group of cats and dogs at the top.

That's actually INT%, not TD/INT ratio.

 

[goheels22002]

The statistic is 100% accurate, the interpretation is flawed. High passer rating != great QB

Wow. A Tony Romo fan! You are an endangered species. If Tony's gonna get over the hump, this may be the year. The Cowboys finally have a defensive coordinator who can take advantage of all that talent and a head coach with some huevos.

But Romo is not even in the same conversation with Brady, Manning, Marino and Montana - sorry.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

A couple of people have also mentioned "who cares?" to this poll. Peyton Manning's neck surgery at age 34 is pretty significant stuff and suggests he's looking at the end.

Maybe new polls are worth posing: Will Peyton Manning pass Dan Marino for #2 all time this year? Will Brady ever pass Fran Tarkenton?

Manning has to get healthy and stay healthy, and that offensive line looked terrible against the Green Bay Packers when the starters were in there last night. 21 more passing TDs could be a challenge for Peyton Manning.

The Patriots sure are built for Brady to catch Tarkenton with the offensive line and receiving corps they have, but that means three more years of elite production.

I despise Brett Favre for all his diva/creepy pervy crap, but his 508 career TDs is just a stunning statistic. Brady won't get within 100 of that.

You're right to point out that every season matters and careers can be ended in a split second in the NFL, so you do want to see a guy like TB maximize every snap and every game. I guess I came across as not being as concerned about the "records" because Brady has already proven everything he ever had to prove, and then some. If you look at the top ten, only Montana has more league championships and only Unitas has as many.

Passing Montana and Unitas on this list is icing on the cake. Passing Tarkenton and moving to number four is like like putting butter cream filling between the layers.

 

[strngplyr]

Wow. A Tony Romo fan! You are an endangered species. If Tony's gonna get over the hump, this may be the year. The Cowboys finally have a defensive coordinator who can take advantage of all that talent and a head coach with some huevos.

But Romo is not even in the same conversation with Brady, Manning, Marino and Montana - sorry.

Point out where I said I was a Tony Romo fan, please.

I'm pretty sure my post was about passer rating, not Tony Romo.

 

[kcusstap]

With the tom's accuracy and a good core of receivers/TE coming back I would have to say it will happen.

 

[jmt57]

That's actually INT%, not TD/INT ratio.

Oops, my bad; good catch CT

Interception percentage, not TD/INT ratio, obviously. The number itself should have been a giveaway.

 

[goheels22002]

Point out where I said I was a Tony Romo fan, please.

I'm pretty sure my post was about passer rating, not Tony Romo.

You said passer rating is 100% accurate. If so, how in the world could it gauge Tony Romo as a better passer than Marino? A better passer than Manning?!? A better passer than Montana ?!?! A better passer than Brady? That statistic is is off substantially somewhere.

Do you think Tony Romo is a Hall of Famer? If so, on the first ballot? All four of those guys are.

 

[Patjew]

30 is a lot? 30 was a lot in the days of Jurgensen, Unitas, and Dawson - it's not a lot these days.

Today I have Brady with 38-46 range in 2011, and a guess of 42.

Brady has only surpassed 30 TDs twice. So yeah, it's alot these days.

 

[bagwell368]

Brady has only surpassed 30 TDs twice. So yeah, it's alot these days.

Let me expound.

BB had a defensive heavy roster in the 2001-2006 years, and favored big tough backs to take the ball into the end zone - as byproduct of that, Brady didn't exceed 30 TD's during those years - but got 28 twice, also 26, 24, and 23.

Since then his 3 complete years he has thrown: 50, 28, 36 - an average of 38. In most sports what a player has done the last 3 years means a lot more then the prior 6 years. But to play along, these 3 big years and the 5 years from above gives a 8 year average of 30.4 TD's for the last 8 years (not inc 2008).

Do we have a better running game then 2007, 2009, and 2010? Yes, many think that just means more TD's for the rushing game, but it also means more time of possession, and that will result in more TD's on the ground and in the air then 2009 and 2010, and could well rival 2007.

Do we have better receivers then last year? I'd say that's an automatic yes. 2009? Outside of Welker's insane season, and Moss's very very good season (on paper), I don't see how 2011 doesn't bury those guys - in particular with the TE's.

So to make a long story short,thanks for the math lesson, but 30 for a healthy Brady isn't any great shakes in 2011.

 

[BaltimorePatsFan]

I'm more concerned about whether he'll tie Joe Montana for Super Bowl victories.

 

[bagwell368]

Let me expound.

BB had a defensive heavy roster in the 2001-2006 years, and favored big tough backs to take the ball into the end zone - as byproduct of that, Brady didn't exceed 30 TD's during those years - but got 28 twice, also 26, 24, and 23.

Since then his 3 complete years he has thrown: 50, 28, 36 - an average of 38. In most sports what a player has done the last 3 years means a lot more then the prior 6 years. But to play along, these 3 big years and the 5 years from above gives a 8 year average of 30.4 TD's for the last 8 years (not inc 2008).

Do we have a better running game then 2007, 2009, and 2010? Yes, many think that just means more TD's for the rushing game, but it also means more time of possession, and that will result in more TD's on the ground and in the air then 2009 and 2010, and could well rival 2007.

Do we have better receivers then last year? I'd say that's an automatic yes. 2009? Outside of Welker's insane season, and Moss's very very good season (on paper), I don't see how 2011 doesn't bury those guys - in particular with the TE's.

So to make a long story short,thanks for the math lesson, but 30 for a healthy Brady isn't any great shakes in 2011.

To recap:

Brady's last 3 complete years he has thrown: 50, 28, 36 - an average of 38.

An 8 year average of 30.4 TD's for the last 8 years (not inc 2008).

Added:

What about the OL, isn't our OL much more of a pass blocking line then a rushing line? 1st and goal from the 7 - I see more passes then runs that get into the endzone.

In fact if Brady gets 30 on the nose I'll be worried about making the playoffs.

 

[jmt57]

What's the all time top 10 Touchdown to game ratio?

Without looking it up I am sure the all-time list with maybe a couple of exceptions (e.g., Favre, Warner) coincides with the active player list; the way games are coached and officiated due to recent rule changes career totals for passing and receiving numbers cannot be compared to current passing and receiving numbers; those all-time career lists are almost meaningless.

I would assume the list you're asking about would have Manning on top, followed by some combination of the two retired players mentioned above, plus Brady, Brees, Rodgers, etc.

 

[BradysBunch12]

I don't care how many TDs he throws for this season. If you look at the last time we won a super bowl, he threw for 3,600 yards, 28 TD, and 14 INT...it's not a great offense that wins championships...it's defense and a well-balanced, timely offense...a combination we haven't had since the last time we won a SB.

My guess, however, is he'll throw for somewhere between 28-31 TDs and 10-12 INT...which will be irrelevant to our SB chances. It's the defense and having a more rounded game plan on offense that's going to take us to the promised land.

 

[bagwell368]

I don't care how many TDs he throws for this season. If you look at the last time we won a super bowl, he threw for 3,600 yards, 28 TD, and 14 INT...it's not a great offense that wins championships...it's defense and a well-balanced, timely offense...a combination we haven't had since the last time we won a SB.

This is not true for all teams, and may be less true since the rule changes then it has ever been before.

Also, our offense looks to be a good deal better then 2004 team.

My guess, however, is he'll throw for somewhere between 28-31 TDs and 10-12 INT...which will be irrelevant to our SB chances. It's the defense and having a more rounded game plan on offense that's going to take us to the promised land.

Our game plan was very balanced in 2007 until Morris got hurt. In today's game the offense predominates, and teams have to score to win, how many 9-6 games are there anymore?

 

[LesPaul]

I only care about how many TD's and INT's Brady throws in the playoffs, and the past 5 years his ratio is terrible.

 

[bagwell368]

I only care about how many TD's and INT's Brady throws in the playoffs, and the past 5 years his ratio is terrible.

15 TD's and 11 Int's with a 4-4 record isn't terrible - better then Manning's career winning% at least.

By the way the topic was TD's in the regular season, so I guess you have nothing to add in this thread..?

 

[Ron Sellers]

While 30 touchdowns is obviously more common than it used to be, it's still fairly uncommon; in other words, I would not assume that it is going to happen.


2010: five players
Brady (36); Manning, Brees (33); Eli, Rivers (30)

2009: four players
Brees (34); Favre, Manning (33); Rodgers (30)

2008: three players
Brees, Rivers (34); Warner (30)

2007: four players
Brady (50); Romo (36); Roethlisberger (32); Manning (31)

2006: one player
Manning (31)

2005: one player
Palmer (32)

2004: four players
Manning (49); Culpepper (39); McNabb (31); Favre (30)

2003: one player
Favre (32)

2002: none
(Brady led league with 28)


The NFL is averaging just four players per year with 30 touchdowns over the last four seasons, and three per year since 2004. To me that's a small enough amount that I would not bet on any one specific player passing for at least 30 touchdowns - even a player as good as Brady.

 

[Ron Sellers]

15 TD's and 11 Int's with a 4-4 record isn't terrible - better then Manning's career winning% at least.

By the way the topic was TD's in the regular season, so I guess you have nothing to add in this thread..?

You should know by now that for the glass half full crowd the only games that count are the final one of a team's season - yet at the same time you are to ignore that by that very definition that means that 97% of all NFL teams will have a horrible, disappointing season each and every year.

 

[bagwell368]

While 30 touchdowns is obviously more common than it used to be, it's still fairly uncommon; in other words, I would not assume that it is going to happen.


2010: five players
Brady (36); Manning, Brees (33); Eli, Rivers (30)

2009: four players
Brees (34); Favre, Manning (33); Rodgers (30)

2008: three players
Brees, Rivers (34); Warner (30)

2007: four players
Brady (50); Romo (36); Roethlisberger (32); Manning (31)

2006: one player
Manning (31)

2005: one player
Palmer (32)

2004: four players
Manning (49); Culpepper (39); McNabb (31); Favre (30)

2003: one player
Favre (32)

2002: none
(Brady led league with 28)


The NFL is averaging just four players per year with 30 touchdowns over the last four seasons, and three per year since 2004. To me that's a small enough amount that I would not bet on any one specific player passing for at least 30 touchdowns - even a player as good as Brady.

Well if everyone is average, then of course the chances of 30 TD's are less then 50/50. But is Brady and the Patriots average? It doesn't appear so, and Brady averaging over 30 TD's per season over the last 8 years ('08 excepted) with some non stellar offenses included seems to auger well for a 30 or greater TD season for a healthy Brady.