Will Pats join in union salute?

[Wolfpack]

Ralph Wilson's Bills and Jacksonville have financial issues that if stressed would cause major problems.

Actually, no they don't. Oh, they may seek greener pastures in LA or Toronto, but they are nowhere near being in danger of actually folding.

It's foolish hubris to believe that anything is invulnerable to disaster. The likellihood is debatable by rational people the complete invulnerability is not.

It's not foolish to see a successful business operating at peak efficiency and conclude they will not be going out of business.

The lion's share of league revenue comes from shared sources (specifically, but not limited to, TV). If any one team was in danger of going out of business, that would mean they were all in danger of going out of business. The very model of the league is that their #1 expense, player salaries, is directly tied into revenues (and yes I know the salary cap is out the window for this year, but I have no doubt their long term model will re-implement the cap).

Do you think the NFL is in danger of folding? You must, because you think it's "hubris" not to.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Not the NFL, but some teams yes could be at risk with long labor impasse.

 

[Wolfpack]

Not the NFL, but some teams yes could be at risk with long labor impasse.

That shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the situation. Nobody is going out of business, nor is anybody in danger of doing so. Each and every single NFL franchise is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. A worst case scenario of some owner being forced to sell his team could happen. A franchise actually folding and going out of business is not in the realm of possibility.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

That shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the situation. Nobody is going out of business, nor is anybody in danger of doing so. Each and every single NFL franchise is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. A worst case scenario of some owner being forced to sell his team could happen. A franchise actually folding and going out of business is not in the realm of possibility.

I defer to your omniscient knowlege of markets & possible futures

 

[lamafist]

There are some here who sound like the Real Estate Brokers and house flippers who said the Prices will always go up. Its a licence to print money. Or that there is long line of bigger suckers we always can sell out to.

Until there weren't.

Is that supposed to mean something? That is one of the more nonsensical attempts at an analogy I've ever heard.

First of all, you act like the housing bubble bursting came as a surprise. LULZ. Not to people who were paying attention. A simple Google search will turn up no shortage of discussion, prediction and handwringing about the coming housing crisis and its causes since the early '00s.

If the NFL's business practices were as transparently unsustainable as the big lenders', then it might make sense to talk about the owners' risk. But they're not.

See, second of all, an NFL franchise is a business, first and foremost, and an asset only in the abstract. It's not a house whose value floats on a national market entirely beyond the influence of its owner, subject to market forces determined by reckless and corrupt trading practices of financial institutions unaware of and apathetic to its existence.

The league is not only the primary agent affecting the market that determines its value, there really aren't any others worth mentioning at the moment. In other words -- it determined its own fate. If there's going to be some huge crisis in the "football-related sports entertainment dollar" market, it will be because of gross mismanagement by the league.

And given the league's recent track record, I wouldn't bet on that.

 

[Wolfpack]

I defer to your omniscient knowlege of markets & possible futures

That is wise. But you don't need to be omniscient to recognize the NFL is the single most successful sports league in the country, and to know that each franchise is worth hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. It's really something that even those with a modicum of knowledge are aware of.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There are some here who sound like the Real Estate Brokers and house flippers who said the Prices will always go up. Its a licence to print money. Or that there is long line of bigger suckers we always can sell out to.

Until there weren't.

No kiddin'.

The players are the product. THe owners are fungible.

The game is the product. The players and the owners are fungible. Fans have no loyalty to either as places like this evidence regularly. As long as my team wins who gives a you know what which overhyped athlele or wealthy ownership group gets me there...

The league is not only the primary agent affecting the market that determines its value, there really aren't any others worth mentioning at the moment. In other words -- it determined its own fate. If there's going to be some huge crisis in the "football-related sports entertainment dollar" market, it will be because of gross mismanagement by the league.

And given the league's recent track record, I wouldn't bet on that.

Neither would I. Hence why we are on the verge of a labor impass now, the gross mismanagement of the negotiation of the CBA of 2006...and now in hindsight a renewed determination by the best and brightest of the owners who were forced into that CBA in order to avoid a work stoppage they were ill prepared to withstand to rectify the mistakes made for expediency sake.

That is wise. But you don't need to be omniscient to recognize the NFL is the single most successful sports league in the country, and to know that each franchise is worth hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. It's really something that even those with a modicum of knowledge are aware of.

Nobody is arguing the success of the last couple of decades in driving league valuations through the roof. What some are able to appreciate is the delicately sustainable balance has been altered of late and that may well effect future growth and sustainability. The Rams recently sold for less than their widely reported valuation. Teams that have changed hands in the recent past did so at tremendous cost to the new ownerships who if they cannot afford to grow their own product or if league growth flattens due to difficult lending markets and inability of the league to invest heavily in new stadiums and technology could find themselves upside down or over leveraged and unable to pay debt service and off field operating expenses (including cash over cap bonus money to attract or retain stars) beyond player salaries which are covered by shared revenue.

What the owners are saying is there are problems with the model. Most stem from the compromise 2006 CBA which scrapped the longstanding designated revenue calculation model and was essentially signed at gunpoint (with guns being aimed by both the union and the poorest performing ownerships). Other issues like rookie contracts and the total inability of teams to recapture any portion of massive signing or roster bonus even when players are unavailable for service due to illegal off field activity because of language arbitrators have ruled insufficiently specific predate 2006 and remain in need of common sense revision.

The NBA is heading for it's own labor showdown because it's experiencing similar kinds of issues surrounding is inability to concurrently control player performance and stabilize cost while remotely providing some semblance of parity.

 

[Triumph]

The Owners have had to say the CBA we signed, was simply too rich, and we can't afford it. The CAP has to at least stabilize. So no more almost automatic raises.

The subsequent news that 11 Teams may have blackouts because they can't sell out their stadiums is ominous. The golden geese (the fans), are being strangled.

Revenues are not growing any more, and may actually be declining. All TV programs evenutally age and lose audiences as crowds just tire of them, and turn their attention elsewhere. It has been a long time but the networks are not healthy, and the bloom may be off the TV football Rose.

With this Union Solidarity stuff, I see major labor turmoil coming up.

The owners are being forced to the position of saying, not only must the CAP be stabilized, it must shrink outright. Step right up, and re-negotiate your existing contract down. That will add a novel meaning to the term "re-negotiate".

That will also go over like a lead baloon. It's the solid citizens who play hard; and earn their money who will be most bitter, about being asked to take a paycut, or lose an anticipated raise. Like... oh say... Logan Mankins. The stupid, criminal, prima donnas won't understand; they never will, until cut. TO sobered up after a few months, when he found that no one wanted him, no antics or not.

I think the 2011 season is becoming very problematical.

Spot on.

But are the owners showing all their cards? The economic times that were in are partly to blame for some of non sell outs. So what happens when the economy turns and money is flowing like wine again? For instance, some NFL stadia cannot secure naming rights. That will obviously change.