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WI Senate power shifts to Dems as Lehman narrowly defeats Wanggaard

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Patters, Jun 6, 2012.

  1. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not the big prize, but a decent consolation prize, should the results stand.

    Senate power shifts to Dems as Lehman narrowly defeats Wanggaard

    Control of the state Senate appeared to have been wrested from Republican control early Wednesday as late results showed former state Sen. John Lehman beating incumbent Sen. Van Wanggaard by less than 1,000 votes.

    With all wards reporting, Lehman came out on top with 36,255 votes to Wanggaard's 35,476 in preliminary returns. It was unclear early Wednesday if there would be a recount of the vote.

    Lehman declared victory, although Wanggaard refused to concede, saying he will review the results.
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2012
  2. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nice... stay tuned for arguments on how a filibuster isn't appropriate at a state level, only at the U.S. senate...
  3. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Of course the WI senate won't be in session till next Jan and there will b yet anothe election for the Senate in Nov, a Pyrrhic victory.
  4. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I reckon... unless they have provisions for calling special sessions

    On the other hand, 18% of Walker's vote apparently said in exit polling they'd be voting Obama in the fall, as of right now.

    So a mix of two things is going on: standard ticket-splitting behavior, and also people who don't agree w/what Walker's up to, but don't believe in recalls. Dems tend to stand on principle like that -- if wrong for Gray Davis, then wrong for Scott Walker, that sort of thing. You see the echo of that in the polling on whether compromise is a good or a bad thing.

    So if your understanding of WI governance is right, the question is, if you get 54% of the vote on a recall, does that mean you can win the general in November?

    PFnV
  5. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The exit polling turned out to be way off the mark, so all that would be taken with a grain of salt.
  6. PatsFanInVa

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    Got the "right" numbers, no pun intended?
  7. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They won't exist until the national pollsters (Gallup & Rasmussen) start releasing state numbers based on likely voters.

    A lot of the other polls are crap because they don't use likely voters (using registered voters or adults instead) and sample sets that are realistic (in terms of R's, D's and Ind's % for the sample)/

    There will be a lot of polling used to try to influence public opinion rather than reflect it.

    The most significent thing I see in the Daily Tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen is that the consistently show Obama at 44-46% support after 3 years people have pretty much decided if they want to have Obama continue as President.

    In May June 2008 I was saying here that Obama would win, he will lose this year.
  8. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

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    Was the blurb I read in the Journal today accurate, that Walker was OK with public employee unions for fire and police, and the police and fire unions had supported him?

    (apologies if this is the wrong thread, but the Scott Walker one was locked, which indicated to me it wasn't worth wading through to see if this had already been discussed -- plus, there wasn't any conversation in a couple days in this one)
  9. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #12 Jersey

    He's right to the extent that when he was trying to eliminate collective barginning he left out the police and fire departments......but I don't recall them "supporting" him at all.

    At least they didn't at the time of the original push to get rid of the unions. At that time they joined the protestors.


    BREAKING: Wisconsin Police Have Joined Protest Inside State Capitol » Rainforest Action Network Blog

    I looked into it a little more and apparently there were a few police associations which did support Walker in the recall election.

    But then again....there's always this as an explanation:


    http://www.channel3000.com/news/Lea...g-Walker/-/1648/8309016/-/h4a4m3/-/index.html
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2012
  10. patsfan13

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    Walker balanced the budget and no teacher laid off and no taxes raised, jobs added.

    Very successful thus far.
  11. PatsFanInVa

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    So in other words, 13, the exit polling did say that 18% who voted against recall said they'd vote Obama in the fall.

    Your complaint is with all exit polling, not with the specific numbers of these exit polls -- indicating that being against the recall does not necessarily even translate to support for the walker agenda; there were a significant number who appeared to be voting against recalls.
  12. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

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    I'm curious what the supposed principle is behind exempting police and fire from the elimination of collective bargaining -- if there is one. I know that in CA there have been problems with benefits for police and firemen, just like for other former state employees.
  13. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Hazardous duty and harder to fill their shoes?
  14. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #12 Jersey

    I think people in general are more sympathetic to police and fire personnel. You may not have a kid in school and you may not use a toll booth or care about the sewer systems in your city/town, but everyone knows they want a policeman or fireman around when they need one - and they all know that eventually they'll probably all need one.

    I think people realize the inherent dangers in police and fire work - and maybe they don't mind so much if they get a perk or two like early retirement - in spite of the occasional horror story about some cop making $200,000 a year with overtime or collecting a double/triple pension, most people know that most cops/fireman make nothing more than the same livable wage they, themselves, make - only cops and firemen risk their lives for the privilege. They also can't be expected to work until 65 or 67 - really, they can't. They don't want to and their bodies won't let them and we really don't want a 67 year old man or woman trying to catch the guys who just raped our daughters or murdered our sons.

    Long story short - public sentiment is fickle - and messing with people that a lot of ordinary citizens still think of as "heroic" isn't a good idea - politically speaking.
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2012
  15. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

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    That's an explanation, and perhaps a defensible one, but not much in the way of principle.

    The supposed reasons for opposing public unions' rights to collective bargaining would seem to apply to fire and police as well.
  16. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

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    I think the bolded part is most pertinent here.

    I agree with much of what you've stated, though there seems to be much more sentiment against both groups these days, partly due to the horror stories (which, sadly, aren't all that rare in CA)

    But as I commented to the poster formerly known as 42, I don't think there's much grounds for eliminating collective bargaining for, say, teachers, while permitting it for police. I do think it's political. Pragmatism wins out over principle, as is often the case.
  17. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #12 Jersey

    It’s true that Walker offered a balanced budget using the cash accounting method. However, using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) accrual accounting methods, there is a $3 billion deficit in each of the next two years.


    Walker did not propose any general tax increases, and he implemented several corporate tax reductions. But his claim that he didn’t raise taxes is not entirely true. The nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau labelled two tax credit reductions as tax increases. One measure reduced the earned income tax credit for people with two or more children, a change projected to net the state an added $56.2 million over two years. Another reduced the homestead tax credit, bringing the state $13.6 million over two years. Walker argued those were spending cuts, not tax increases. But suffice to say, those who got those credits before, and don’t now, probably consider them to be tax increases. Walker also raised tens of millions of dollars by increasing a number of fees.



    “Since the start of the year, Wisconsin has added thousands of new jobs.” – Gov. Scott Walker in a TV ad.

    What’s Left Out: In addition to being governor of Wisconsin this year, Walker was also governor last year. It’s true that Wisconsin has added several thousand net jobs in the first few months of this year. But when you look at Walker’s entire time in office, including last year, Wisconsin has lost 14,200 jobs, and ranks dead last among the states in job creation.



    If you say so.

    FactCheck.org : The Whole Truth in Wisconsin Air Wars
  18. patsfan13

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    Well concerning the exit polls I would refer you too these analysis from Michael Barone the first done before all the ballots were o****ed but after Barrett had conceded:

    Exit poll: WI in play in November | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner




    Of course the final number was & % gap not a 6% gap.

    This could show Romney up a point.

    As far as the public attitude towards the public employee unions:

    Walker changes attitudes on public employee unions | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner


    Combine this with the results of the elections in San Jose and San Deigo:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/u...an-jose-pass-pension-cuts.html?pagewanted=all

  19. PatsWSB47

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    #12 Jersey

    Key people, be they public or private employees often get special treatment and benefits so that the risk of losing them is minimized. They are perceived to be the most valuable and the hardest to replace. That's not going to be the politically correct official position, sure but I do think that's at least part of what's behind it. The other part might be the negative political hit that would result from losing their support.
  20. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

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    Like I said, I agree, but that doesn't fit with the principled stance I've heard from folks on the right when it comes to public employee unions and collective bargaining.

    So once you open that door, the question stops being whether it's "right or wrong" for public employees to have that right, and instead it's which employees are most important -- and that can simply mean which employees are most important to a particular candidate's election / re-election hopes, which supposedly was a big part of the problem in the first place.

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