Why the prevent is not good for this team

[Brady2Welker]

It's harder to pressure with our personnel than one would think. We could bring the house to Manning and it probably wouldn't matter. Look what he did to the Jets defense last year, and they're much better at blitzing than the Patriots.

 

[andrewgarrr]

It's harder to pressure with our personnel than one would think. We could bring the house to Manning and it probably wouldn't matter. Look what he did to the Jets defense last year, and they're much better at blitzing than the Patriots.

I agree. I think personnel has a lot to do with it.

Also, I think the "prevent defense" strategy maintains that the offense put together a half-way decent drive to also eat clock. While the opposing team might score in 150 seconds, the Patriots offense should be eating up at least that amount. I don't think they have been matching up in that regard. It kind of reminds me of that old adage: "The best offense is the best defense". (Which of course isn't necessarily true, but I'm just trying to get the message across).

If you could post the stats of the Patriots drives in between those drives of the opposing offenses that might help prove my point. (Or disprove it...)

 

[AzPatsFan]

I understand the concept of the prevent defense, and the reality is, the last two games, the Pats have played it in the 4th quarter, and they've won the games. Since that's the objective, I guess one could justify its use.

However, the concept, as we all know, is to make the opposing offense take a lot of time off the clock, gaining small chunks of yardage. You trade off yards and even some points for time; in the end, the opponent shouldn't have enough time left. But here are the 4th quarter drives by Pitt and Indy:

Pit
7 plays, 71 yds, 2:09, TD
2 plays, 12 yds, 0:30, INT
5 plays, 53 yds, 1:48, TD
5 plays, 80 yds, 1:24, TD
7 plays, 47 yds, 1:47, time expired

Indy
7 plays, 73 yds, 2:26, TD
7 plays, 73 yds, 2:18, TD
9 plays, 50 yds, 1:48, INT

Ok, the INT's are obviously very nice. But both Pit and Indy absolutely *shredded* the prevent defense. If the concept was to make the other team take a lot of time off the clock, clearly, that objective was not met - not even close. Look at those drives. Not one of them took longer than 2:26. As soon as the Pats went into the soft defense, the other team just ripped down the field.

If the philosophy of going to the soft prevent is to prevent the big plays from the other team, and to eat up the clock, this is not working. You may as well play your regular defense - you know, the one that kept both Indy and Pit under control for the first three quarters of those games. As soon as the Pats went soft, the other offenses went nuts.

Moreover, going to the soft prevent seems, for some strange reason, to impact the entire attitude of the team, because the offense tends to play timid. Even as early as the Cincy game, we saw this kind of thing. Huge lead, offense played crisp early, but tended to really slow down in the 2nd half.

Anyway, my two cents on this. BB knows more football than I could ever dream of, but it seems pretty obvious that the soft prevent is not doing what it's supposed to. May as well play normal defense.

You are totally and completely wrong. The Patriots do play their "normal " defense.

1) We play the Prevent, "Bend-don't-Break" pass defense, the entire game, not just in the 4th Q.

2) It is intrinsic to the Team's Belichickian Theory of Defense. It works too, 8 times out of 10, this season; and innumerable times in other years including in two winning, of the four Superbowl years.

3) The only difference in the waning minutes, is the losing Team goes to a four-down as opposed to the normal three-down Offense, which is tougher to stop.

3) The Offense enters a "'safe mode" style, to not yield a turnover in the late going. Which means sometimes they don't get First downs.

Overall it is the game plan, and it works! 8-2 says so! Style points count for naught. Winning is what counts. Plus it disarms future opponents who under estimate the Pats Defense to their ruin.

 

[AzPatsFan]

You know in reality....pressure on Manning is one of the PRIMARY things that you have to do to get him off his rhythm ...and/or make mistakes. If you give him all day like we did in 2nd half he will obviously torch us...the primary think that brought us a victory in the end....Cunningham's pressure that led to INT....up to that point manning and colts were rolling.....Don't get me wrong pats D schemes confused manning for alot of the game (which he said in PC)...but overall pats need to find way to bring more heat....GO.PATS!

I hear all this complaining about lack of pressure in the 13 games of the Tom & Peyton show. I don't think the Pats ever applied more pressure than this game, despite the lack of a sack. Peyton was forced into 5 errors, more than I've ever seen him make versus the Patriots, and they cashed in, 3 of the 5. All but one, Manning was thrrowing under extreme pressure.

Inviting, (forcing!) the short pass completion underneath the coverage, doesn't allow enough time for the rushers to complete a sack, but it works strategically.

 

[ATippett56]

My only issue with the defense is our LBs. It just seems to me that when dropping back into coverage, they seem confused. I've noticed this in other games too. Im just going to chaulk it up to them being young, and needing more experience.

This is Mayo's and Guyton's third season in the New England Patriots defense. How much better to do expect their pass coverage to improve?

 

[AzPatsFan]

This is Mayo's and Guyton's third season in the New England Patriots defense. How much better to do expect their pass coverage to improve?

A lot! Guyton's improvement is a revelation this year as a third down backer.

Don't forget that Buschi wasn't a regular for another year into his career. I'd say Tedy turned into a pretty good pass defender as an ILB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

A lot! Guyton's improvement is a revelation this year as a third down backer.

Don't forget that Buschi wasn't a regular for another year into his career. I'd say Tedy turned into a pretty good pass defender as an ILB.

This.

Bru has said on many occasions that it took him YEARS to recognize and anticipate routes, checkdowns, tendencies, etc before he was even functional as a coverage LB, let alone a good one.

 

[ATippett56]

This.

Bru has said on many occasions that it took him YEARS to recognize and anticipate routes, checkdowns, tendencies, etc before he was even functional as a coverage LB, let alone a good one.

That's because Bruschi played defensive end in college, so the learning curve was alot steeper. Mayo and Guyton both played linebacker in college.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

This.

Bru has said on many occasions that it took him YEARS to recognize and anticipate routes, checkdowns, tendencies, etc before he was even functional as a coverage LB, let alone a good one.

Actually, this is an interesting comment.

Since it can take so long for a linebacker to become good in coverage, maybe it's better to have a defensive system in which linebackers usually rush the passer (presumably an easier skill to master) and DB's are used in coverage.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That's because Bruschi played defensive end in college, so the learning curve was alot steeper. Mayo and Guyton both played linebacker in college.

Understood but there is a helluva difference between a college passing offense and an NFL one which supports my point why Guyton and Mayo are still learning OTJ.

 

[Deus Irae]

Actually, this is an interesting comment.

Since it can take so long for a linebacker to become good in coverage, maybe it's better to have a defensive system in which linebackers usually rush the passer (presumably an easier skill to master) and DB's are used in coverage.

The team is 8-2, even while the defense is struggling mightily against the pass. When you're dealing with a closed environment the way you are with a 32 team NFL, why would you want to screw with something that's been working for a decade and is still working now?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

That's because Bruschi played defensive end in college, so the learning curve was alot steeper. Mayo and Guyton both played linebacker in college.

Takeo Spikes noted on NFLN that he didn't feel proficient in coverage until well into his 4th year.

Besides, it has to be noted that Indy is not going to get shutout and their big offensive stat games are in losses.

The good thing is that in the San Diego and Indy games, they came up with the big stops when required. Also, these games were close due to the "perfect storm" nature of the game.

Hopefully, this simply part of the maturation process. Speed and athletisicm is the advantage of youth and this situation places a higher premium on experience

Are there any rules of thumb on when to bring pressure in these types of situations?

 

[Metaphors]

On the first TD drive of the quarter, Manning threw for 30 yards, but the real key was giving up a 36-yard run to Brown which took them from the Indy side of the field to the red zone.

The defense was atrocious in the 4th quarter, not making excuses. But when you're playing against an elite QB and a top-notch team, you can't afford to make those types of mistakes.

The stats indicate our 5+ DB package is extremely poor, and that it's even worse outside of the 4th quarter, which is hard to believe. But I think we make a lot more mistakes with the big lead, and need to sharpen the focus and learn how to close out games.

You saved me the trouble of making all these points. Totally agree. On the Brown run, Chung had him squared up in the hole and inexplicably let him slip inside. There is a major difference being at the Colts 48 and the Pats 20 with 9 minutes remaining. Without that domino falling, we have no idea how the rest of the game plays out.

As an aside, Chung looked awfully slow in this game. I'm wondering if he was under the weather as well.

Interview with Bill Belichick on the Big Show this AM:

Did you go to a prevent defense with a 17-point lead?

No. We played the way we played the whole game. … We missed some tackles. He made a great throw there on the middle read for the last touchdown. They had a good play on the pop pass where he faked the run and hit the slot over the middle. They had some good plays. We had some good plays. Luckily, we just had a couple more than they did.

[Emphasis mine.]

I know it goes against the current board group-think, but my eyes agree with what Belichick is saying. The Pats play 2-deep occasionally (the McCourty interception started with 2 safeties deep) and I didn't notice it more in the 4th quarter than at other times. In fact, they would often show 2-deep and quickly bring up the safeties in combo coverage (the 2nd white TD for example). In a prevent, that completion never happens. Same with the Wallace TD in Pittsburgh.

I agree with your perspective that behind each play that looked like the result of a soft prevent, there was a breakdown. On the Wayne completion before the Sanders pick, Chung had Wayne in the slot but fell down. On that play, Manning had to get rid of the ball quickly because he was under a ton of pressure inside. If Chung keeps his feet, who knows what happens.

The most curious thing to me is the perspective like "look what happened when we finally pressured Manning". That rush was no different than what the Pats did the entire quarter. As I mentioned, Manning had multiple bodies in his face on the previous play. The Pats were getting close but a lack of execution in key places kept letting them down. Credit to Cunningham for winning a key individual battle that ended up closing out the game. It wasn't like he didn't try to do the same thing the previous 2 (or 10) drives.

So I don't see anything chronic with the Pats defense...besides being inexperienced. Tighten up the execution and you will see more interceptions/sacks and less TDs when the opponent is forced to come from behind late.

 

[UofApatsfan]

I think you are missing the point though. Even with that happening they ran out of time. If we had played aggressive defense and allowed quick strike plays 2:26 could have been 0:17. Also, did you factor in using time outs? A 2:20 drive using 3 timeouts is different than a 2:20 without any.

I'm pretty sure Indy had 2 or 3 timeouts left at the end of the game, but that 17 second argument makes no sense. If using the regular defense was such a huge risk to give up a 0:17 quick strike, why didn't we see any quick scores from Manning the first three quarters? It seems like they take longer to score against the regular defense than when given a 15 yard cushion to pick apart.

 

[ATippett56]

Are there any rules of thumb on when to bring pressure in these types of situations?

Cunningham utilized as a pass rusher than Arrington!

 

[ivanvamp]

You are totally and completely wrong. The Patriots do play their "normal " defense.

1) We play the Prevent, "Bend-don't-Break" pass defense, the entire game, not just in the 4th Q.

2) It is intrinsic to the Team's Belichickian Theory of Defense. It works too, 8 times out of 10, this season; and innumerable times in other years including in two winning, of the four Superbowl years.

3) The only difference in the waning minutes, is the losing Team goes to a four-down as opposed to the normal three-down Offense, which is tougher to stop.

3) The Offense enters a "'safe mode" style, to not yield a turnover in the late going. Which means sometimes they don't get First downs.

Overall it is the game plan, and it works! 8-2 says so! Style points count for naught. Winning is what counts. Plus it disarms future opponents who under estimate the Pats Defense to their ruin.

I read this and the other post where BB is quoted as saying they were playing the same defense late as they did all game long. I don't have a play by play formation breakdown, nor do I have game film. Based on what I see, I see the corners playing further back, and the Pats rushing fewer guys, late in the game.

Look at the 4th quarter drive charts from the Steelers/Colts games. In both games the Pats did a great job containing the other offense and, just as it *looked* like they were softening up on D, the other teams' offenses just went crazy.

So if they were playing the exact same way they had all game long, why in the world did they all of a sudden go to crap?

 

[Deus Irae]

Last year, this team was losing games even after having late leads. This season, the team has only lost one game where it had a lead at halftime or later, and that was the game they lost to the Jets after having a 4 point lead at halftime.

Does the team need to tighten up the downfield coverage when it goes to a "prevent" type of defense? Yes.

Does the team need to tackle better when it's in a "prevent" type of defense? Yes.


However, a "prevent" type defense has been used on numerous occasions this season, and it's yet to cost the team a game.

 

[Kontradiction]

Last year, this team was losing games even after having late leads. This season, the team has only lost one game where it had a lead at halftime or later, and that was the game they lost to the Jets after having a 4 point lead at halftime.

Does the team need to tighten up the downfield coverage when it goes to a "prevent" type of defense? Yes.

Does the team need to tackle better when it's in a "prevent" type of defense? Yes.


However, a "prevent" type defense has been used on numerous occasions this season, and it's yet to cost the team a game.

That's why, while I would still like to see it shelved against the better quarterbacks in the league, I can't really b!tch about it all that hard. Not hard enough to start multiple threads on it, anyway. I guess I just miss the zero blitzes we used to roll out against guys like Manning that we sort of shelved after the rules changes took place. I will say, though, that if we meet in the playoffs again that I hope Belichick doesn't roll out the prevent look against Manning if we go up by a couple of scores. I hope he decides to give him different looks, and I hope that the coverage is better by then.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's why, while I would still like to see it shelved against the better quarterbacks in the league, I can't really b!tch about it all that hard. Not hard enough to start multiple threads on it, anyway. I guess I just miss the zero blitzes we used to roll out against guys like Manning that we sort of shelved after the rules changes took place. I will say, though, that if we meet in the playoffs again that I hope Belichick doesn't roll out the prevent look against Manning if we go up by a couple of scores. I hope he decides to give him different looks, and I hope that the coverage is better by then.

Unfortunately, the 2010 Patriots don't have a

Law (Coverage/INT CB)
Harrison (Coverage/hit/sack S)
Vrabel (sack OLB)
Bruschi (coverage/sneaky pass rush ILB)
Seymour (Monster, any way you want to use him).

I'm not even sure there's a McGinest (Pass rush DL), unless you're looking at Wright.


That makes blitzing quick readers like Manning and Brees a very, very risky proposition.

 

[Kontradiction]

Unfortunately, the 2010 Patriots don't have a

Law (Coverage/INT CB)
Harrison (Coverage/hit/sack S)
Vrabel (sack OLB)
Bruschi (coverage/sneaky pass rush ILB)
Seymour (Monster, any way you want to use him).

I'm not even sure there's a McGinest (Pass rush DL), unless you're looking at Wright.


That makes blitzing quick readers like Manning and Brees a very, very risky proposition.

I wasn't recommending that we send the heat at Manning and Brees with the personnel we have now. Ultimately, I'd like to see something in between where we send one or two extra rushers at Manning next time instead of four down linemen. We're really lucky that Cunningham was able to beat the RT one on one and change the way Manning threw the ball. Otherwise, you can add one to the loss column and it's the second epic collapse in two years against the Colts.

With that said, though, the "prevent" has not hurt us in getting to 8-2 yet. It came close this last Sunday, but the only statistic that matters in this case is who got the win. Furthermore, Belichick is one of (if not THE) best defensive minds in the history of the game. I'm sure that if there is a next time around, he'll give Manning different looks.