Why the Pats will win

[PonyExpress]

Cincinnati is an immature team coming off an emotional victory, which some of them celebrated to excess (read C. Henry et. al.). Palmer is immobile compared with his former self. The Cinci O-line has been troubled by protection problems. The Cinci defense has been decimated at LB. The front 4 is competent but not exceptional with Smith and Adams. The secondary, while ballhawking, thrives on jumping routes for the big play, a risky tactic born of confidence in their offense's ability to score 24+ points a gain. They have seen the video of the Pats sub-par performances, and the tendency for a let down will be somewhat magnified by a justifiable lack of respect for a struggling opponent, history be damned. Human nature will dictate that. The crowd will be crazed, raucous, a parade of appreciation pre-game for defeating the hated Steelers. The Bengals will come out on an emotional high, and go quickly for the knockout to throw red meat to the lions in the crowd. They are an emotional, fiery group.

The Pats are going to go with the 4-3 in this game. It is their best way to put pressure on Palmer, the key to the game. They will unleash Seymour, Warren, Green, Wilfork and Wright on the inconsistent Cinci O-line and the wobbly Levi Jones. The intent will be to throw off Palmer's timing from the get go. The lack of LBer speed in the 4-3 for the Pats is not a huge concern because Rudi Johnson is a between the tackles runner with limited ability to get to the corners. Whatever the outcome of the game, the Pats will knock Palmer silly. The Cinci receivers will make their plays... but the Cinci run game will be spotty, and Palmer is going to take his punishment. There is a good chance Chris Henry will be BENCHED for this game by Marvin Lewis as a statement to his team about extracurricular activities. Housyourmama and Johnson will score in this game; They will go for a quick strike early, trying to demoralize the Pats' already shaky Dbackfield for a 7-0 lead. Cinci will score in this game... 20-27 points.

When the Pats are on offense, Cinci will first try to cheat to the line of scrimmage a la the Broncos, but even this will be unsuccessful to stop the running game, because the Bengal LBers don't match the Bronco's all-world trio. Watson will have a break out game in the neighborhood of 7 catches/70 yards due to break downs among the unproven Bengal LBers, and I expect Gabriel to make his mark. IMO Brady will break out of his funk with an additional week acclimating to his receivers and I expect Maroney/Dillon to combine for 160+ yards against the Bengals' porous front 7. Ideally, Gostkowski will reassert himself; Even without him the team will emerge with a satisfying 31-24, 28-24 victory.

 

[Lockdown06]

Wilfork, or if we go 4-3 then both the DTs should have a monstrous game this week - the Bengals starting center is out and i think they're starting a young guard in his place.

 

[PonyExpress]

The Bengals are a paper tiger. The euphoria over their pittsburgh victory disguised flaws in their team that will be exposed as the season progresses. (1) They cannot stop the run (2) they have trouble covering Tight Ends (3) Their O[line is inconsistent (4) their QB is gimpy and an injury waiting to happen (5) They have an immature, reckless roster that is set up for another off-field disaster. I've already crossed them off from Super Bowl contention, regardless of the outcome of this game.

 

[Lockdown06]

thats true, but as Bill Simmons mentioned in his column today - imagine if they DID get to the superbowl? Half of their roster would be arrested by gametime.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

The NFL seems to be trying to keep the Pats from playing their type of football...Because that type of football is the kind that won championships. The NFL does not want one team winning annual championships.

If the good guys get flagged for quick penalties....specifically defensive pass interference, or personal fouls such as roughing the passer, then we are in for a long afternoon. If they let us bump the recievers a little and keep them honest, and should we get to Palmer and knock him on his back, then we have a chance. But if we get nit picked for every little thing...Basically we are being told to take the loss and move on.

 

[PonyExpress]

It is crucial that the Pats weather the early storm. I fully expect the Bengals to ride the wave of emotion from their victory over Pitt and the crazed crowd, and rush out to an early lead. The Pats must hang in their, stay mentally strong and not exhibit frustration if early events go against them, especially in the defensive backfield or offensive passing game. This will be a give and take game, and the mentally strong will survive. No moping on the field, etc. Beat the Bengals up physically at the line of scrimmage and above all attack Palmer. Crush the head and the body will die. Maroney will be in his element, and a break out performance is within reason...

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

It is crucial that the Pats weather the early storm. I fully expect the Bengals to ride the wave of emotion from their victory over Pitt and the crazed crowd, and rush out to an early lead. The Pats must hang in their, stay mentally strong and not exhibit frustration if early events go against them, especially in the defensive backfield or offensive passing game. This will be a give and take game, and the mentally strong will survive. No moping on the field, etc. Beat the Bengals up physically at the line of scrimmage and above all attack Palmer. Crush the head and the body will die. Maroney will be in his element, and a break out performance is within reason...

thanks pony...hell I'm ready to take the field after that motivational post.....

 

[I'm Ron Borges?]

Cincinnati is an immature team coming off an emotional victory, which some of them celebrated to excess (read C. Henry et. al.). Palmer is immobile compared with his former self. The Cinci O-line has been troubled by protection problems. The Cinci defense has been decimated at LB. The front 4 is competent but not exceptional with Smith and Adams. The secondary, while ballhawking, thrives on jumping routes for the big play, a risky tactic born of confidence in their offense's ability to score 24+ points a gain. They have seen the video of the Pats sub-par performances, and the tendency for a let down will be somewhat magnified by a justifiable lack of respect for a struggling opponent, history be damned. Human nature will dictate that. The crowd will be crazed, raucous, a parade of appreciation pre-game for defeating the hated Steelers. The Bengals will come out on an emotional high, and go quickly for the knockout to throw red meat to the lions in the crowd. They are an emotional, fiery group.

The Pats are going to go with the 4-3 in this game. It is their best way to put pressure on Palmer, the key to the game. They will unleash Seymour, Warren, Green, Wilfork and Wright on the inconsistent Cinci O-line and the wobbly Levi Jones. The intent will be to throw off Palmer's timing from the get go. The lack of LBer speed in the 4-3 for the Pats is not a huge concern because Rudi Johnson is a between the tackles runner with limited ability to get to the corners. Whatever the outcome of the game, the Pats will knock Palmer silly. The Cinci receivers will make their plays... but the Cinci run game will be spotty, and Palmer is going to take his punishment. There is a good chance Chris Henry will be BENCHED for this game by Marvin Lewis as a statement to his team about extracurricular activities. Housyourmama and Johnson will score in this game; They will go for a quick strike early, trying to demoralize the Pats' already shaky Dbackfield for a 7-0 lead. Cinci will score in this game... 20-27 points.

When the Pats are on offense, Cinci will first try to cheat to the line of scrimmage a la the Broncos, but even this will be unsuccessful to stop the running game, because the Bengal LBers don't match the Bronco's all-world trio. Watson will have a break out game in the neighborhood of 7 catches/70 yards due to break downs among the unproven Bengal LBers, and I expect Gabriel to make his mark. IMO Brady will break out of his funk with an additional week acclimating to his receivers and I expect Maroney/Dillon to combine for 160+ yards against the Bengals' porous front 7. Ideally, Gostkowski will reassert himself; Even without him the team will emerge with a satisfying 31-24, 28-24 victory.

Sure thing. Nice write up but you forgot to mention the part where Ellis Hobbs won't play and Hank Poteat will be in the game. Missed that part of the evaluation, did you?

 

[I'm Ron Borges?]

The Bengals are a paper tiger. The euphoria over their pittsburgh victory disguised flaws in their team that will be exposed as the season progresses. (1) They cannot stop the run (2) they have trouble covering Tight Ends (3) Their O[line is inconsistent (4) their QB is gimpy and an injury waiting to happen (5) They have an immature, reckless roster that is set up for another off-field disaster. I've already crossed them off from Super Bowl contention, regardless of the outcome of this game.

Yeah, those teams with talent have no shot. Better to have a bunch of Heath Evans and get beat by every team with a winning record. Those teams don't get crossed off though?

 

[OldEnglandPatriot]

Pony, I hope you're right about the result, but not the score as I've taken the under at 46.5

I rate the Bengals rather higher than you, but your analysis is very interesting and informative.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Cincinnati is an immature team coming off an emotional victory, which some of them celebrated to excess (read C. Henry et. al.). Palmer is immobile compared with his former self. The Cinci O-line has been troubled by protection problems. The Cinci defense has been decimated at LB. The front 4 is competent but not exceptional with Smith and Adams. The secondary, while ballhawking, thrives on jumping routes for the big play, a risky tactic born of confidence in their offense's ability to score 24+ points a gain. They have seen the video of the Pats sub-par performances, and the tendency for a let down will be somewhat magnified by a justifiable lack of respect for a struggling opponent, history be damned. Human nature will dictate that. The crowd will be crazed, raucous, a parade of appreciation pre-game for defeating the hated Steelers. The Bengals will come out on an emotional high, and go quickly for the knockout to throw red meat to the lions in the crowd. They are an emotional, fiery group.

The Pats are going to go with the 4-3 in this game. It is their best way to put pressure on Palmer, the key to the game. They will unleash Seymour, Warren, Green, Wilfork and Wright on the inconsistent Cinci O-line and the wobbly Levi Jones. The intent will be to throw off Palmer's timing from the get go. The lack of LBer speed in the 4-3 for the Pats is not a huge concern because Rudi Johnson is a between the tackles runner with limited ability to get to the corners. Whatever the outcome of the game, the Pats will knock Palmer silly. The Cinci receivers will make their plays... but the Cinci run game will be spotty, and Palmer is going to take his punishment. There is a good chance Chris Henry will be BENCHED for this game by Marvin Lewis as a statement to his team about extracurricular activities. Housyourmama and Johnson will score in this game; They will go for a quick strike early, trying to demoralize the Pats' already shaky Dbackfield for a 7-0 lead. Cinci will score in this game... 20-27 points.

When the Pats are on offense, Cinci will first try to cheat to the line of scrimmage a la the Broncos, but even this will be unsuccessful to stop the running game, because the Bengal LBers don't match the Bronco's all-world trio. Watson will have a break out game in the neighborhood of 7 catches/70 yards due to break downs among the unproven Bengal LBers, and I expect Gabriel to make his mark. IMO Brady will break out of his funk with an additional week acclimating to his receivers and I expect Maroney/Dillon to combine for 160+ yards against the Bengals' porous front 7. Ideally, Gostkowski will reassert himself; Even without him the team will emerge with a satisfying 31-24, 28-24 victory.

That is great on specifics. I hope you are right. I would put it much more succinct. The Patriots will win because they likey will have better success running the ball and in turn will open up/improve our passing game. On the defensive side, if we stop their run (if we stop most team's running game for that matter) we increase the odds of them committing a big mistake or two. That said, the 4-3 you mention may stop the run better, possibly, but keep in mind taking an agile LB off the field and putting a large but much slower DL on the field also makes our D slower/less athletic. Bottom line is we win this game by not turning the ball over, running the ball well, stopping their run and NOT giving up the big play. The not giving up the big play is the most worrisome of the list. (so much for being succinct).

 

[soxpatsbscs]

Pony, you are well versed in football and have good insight. I would worry about our below average secondary getting torched all game. No way any of our CB's can stop any of their WR's.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Cincinnati is an immature team coming off an emotional victory, which some of them celebrated to excess (read C. Henry et. al.). Palmer is immobile compared with his former self. The Cinci O-line has been troubled by protection problems. The Cinci defense has been decimated at LB. The front 4 is competent but not exceptional with Smith and Adams. The secondary, while ballhawking, thrives on jumping routes for the big play, a risky tactic born of confidence in their offense's ability to score 24+ points a gain. They have seen the video of the Pats sub-par performances, and the tendency for a let down will be somewhat magnified by a justifiable lack of respect for a struggling opponent, history be damned. Human nature will dictate that. The crowd will be crazed, raucous, a parade of appreciation pre-game for defeating the hated Steelers. The Bengals will come out on an emotional high, and go quickly for the knockout to throw red meat to the lions in the crowd. They are an emotional, fiery group.

The Pats are going to go with the 4-3 in this game. It is their best way to put pressure on Palmer, the key to the game. They will unleash Seymour, Warren, Green, Wilfork and Wright on the inconsistent Cinci O-line and the wobbly Levi Jones. The intent will be to throw off Palmer's timing from the get go. The lack of LBer speed in the 4-3 for the Pats is not a huge concern because Rudi Johnson is a between the tackles runner with limited ability to get to the corners. Whatever the outcome of the game, the Pats will knock Palmer silly. The Cinci receivers will make their plays... but the Cinci run game will be spotty, and Palmer is going to take his punishment. There is a good chance Chris Henry will be BENCHED for this game by Marvin Lewis as a statement to his team about extracurricular activities. Housyourmama and Johnson will score in this game; They will go for a quick strike early, trying to demoralize the Pats' already shaky Dbackfield for a 7-0 lead. Cinci will score in this game... 20-27 points.

When the Pats are on offense, Cinci will first try to cheat to the line of scrimmage a la the Broncos, but even this will be unsuccessful to stop the running game, because the Bengal LBers don't match the Bronco's all-world trio. Watson will have a break out game in the neighborhood of 7 catches/70 yards due to break downs among the unproven Bengal LBers, and I expect Gabriel to make his mark. IMO Brady will break out of his funk with an additional week acclimating to his receivers and I expect Maroney/Dillon to combine for 160+ yards against the Bengals' porous front 7. Ideally, Gostkowski will reassert himself; Even without him the team will emerge with a satisfying 31-24, 28-24 victory.

Excellent post! Tried to start this thread yesterday and just finished trying to restart it today. Wish I had read this first! I too, see the running game picking up 150yds on the ground. I see our pass rush having a great day against a makeshift O line and less than mobile Palmer. The two keys to this game seem to be to exploit the soft underbelly of the Cincy pass D and to hit their receivers hard at the line to slow and disrupt them. Brady goes to his short game, the safeties chuck the wide outs and we have a real shot at winning this game. You see Tom trying to air it out early and you see the db's back 5 yds off the line and it could be a long day.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Well, in reponse to the original post, the Steelers did "knock Palmer silly" last week - 6 sacks and many hurries and knock downs - yet he threw for 4 TD's against better corners than we have. And we have not shown anything close to the Pittsburgh pass rush at all. And the Steelers shut down Rudi Johnson for only 47 yds and a 2.5 avg/carry. And Parker and Haynes lit up Cincy for 157yds and 2 TD's.

So the Steelers did 90% of what you prescribed as a winning strategy and still lost, at home, with a better D than we have.

Our only real hope is that Brady and the WR's find themselves and somehow score 35 points w/o turning the ball over because Palmer is going to torch our DB's big time.

 

[PonyExpress]

If you had watched the Pitt/Cin game, you would have observed that Pitt dominated that game but gave it away on 3 egregious unforced errors. You would have seen that Palmer came close to serious injury faced with the reckless Pitt blitz. You discredit Samuel and Hobbs (if he plays) by downgrading them compared with Townsend and Taylor. You fail to take into account the pressure that our front 4 in the 4-3 asserted against a more mobile Pennignton, who barely escaped sacks by a variety of dance moves. You fail to calculate the possible absence of C. Henry from the Bengal lineup. You discount the emotional deficit a less experienced team faces after a climactic victory over a hated rival.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Our only real hope is that Brady and the WR's find themselves and somehow score 35 points w/o turning the ball over because Palmer is going to torch our DB's big time.

That is the prevailing wisdom, but the way to somewhat neutralize the wr's of Cincy is to stall them at the line with safeties who then hand them off to the corners. Combined with an effective pass rush and a qb who cant move to avoid pressure, this could greatly reduce the effectiveness of the passing game.
And yes, Brady has to get in rythm with his receivers. But do it underneath in the soft belly of the D, exploiting the weakness at LB. Forget the long and somewhat long passes until after the bye week. He obviously had no rythm with them in 2001, and mastered the short passing game with the duo he had. The other stuff will come in time, but stick to the short stuff especially this week, and the offense will move the ball.

 

[Patjew]

With Cinci's excellent passing game and our weakened secondary, would it not be better to play a 3-4 and drop LBs into pass coverage?

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

The Bengals are the best team in the AFC IMO and I just don't see how you guys can beat them. It will be close going to the lockerrooms at half, but I think Cincinnati blows it open after that.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

With Cinci's excellent passing game and our weakened secondary, would it not be better to play a 3-4 and drop LBs into pass coverage?

We'll be in a 4-2 nickel, using Warren and Green on run downs and Colvin/Vrabel on pass downs...or the 3-2 dime, or the 3-4 with Davis and Alexander inside, or the 1-4 dime with Sey at NT, or the 5-dime with Colvin and Vrabel playing DE, Wilfork at NG, Warren/Sey at DT, and Harrison/Sanders playing shallow half LB/half S...Oh, I'm so confused - curse you Bell Bilechick! :enranged:

 

[shirtsleeve]

The Bengals are the best team in the AFC IMO and I just don't see how you guys can beat them. It will be close going to the lockerrooms at half, but I think Cincinnati blows it open after that.

Cincy has a very potent offense, although the o-line isnt what it was. Palmer is returning to form, but cannot move like he could. Their d is suspect (er...are suspects? ) and survives off of the big play and turnover. They will give up points rather easily. The Class of the AFC??? No way! A good team on the rise? Ok.