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Why the Giants have virtually no shot to win the Super Bowl

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATRIOTSFANINPA, Jan 23, 2008.

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  1. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    The reason behind the Giants getting virtually no chance to win is based on Super Bowls of the past 37 years regarding Defense allowing points and Offense scoring points as statistics show in the regular season prior to the SB

    If you look at Super Bowls since the 1970 Merger there have only been 8 teams that have won the Super Bowl that have NOT had both the offense and defense BOTH ranked in the top 10 in the regualr season - It is rare when a team does not rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense and wins such as the only teams to do so since the 1970 merger as follows...

    The only 8 teams 37 years to have won the Supr Bowl without being top 10 in offense and defense but has had at least 1 of offense or defense ranked in the top 10

    1976 - Raiders 4th on offense 12th in defense
    1982 - Redskins 12th in offense 1st in defense
    1983 - Raiders 3rd in offense 13th in defense
    1990 - Giants 15th in offense 1st in defense
    2000 - Ravens 14th in offense 1st in defense
    2002 - Bucs 18th in offense 1st in defense
    2003 - Patriots 12th in offense 1st in defense
    2006 - Colts 2nd in offense 23rd in defense

    Now the reason why the Giants need a miracle to win based on these facts is that this year the Giants are NOT in the top 10 in offense OR defense,they are ranked 14th in offense and 17th in defense and have one of the worst combined rankings in Super Bowl history which means the Giants have to do something no other team in NFL history has done before and win with those rankings -

    Thats 0-37 folks - even though its just stats and things can happen,an 0 for 37 stat does not bone well for the G-mens chances next sunday.

    In fact I don't think it will be close and don't forget New England has not had a close game when the temperature was above 50 as thier last blowout was in the final week of October when the temps got a bit colder thus the games got closer.

    Expect a blowout and a boring super bowl next sunday- Boring for non-patriots fans that is...:rocker:
  2. SavioKid

    SavioKid Rookie

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    What are the PATS rankings this year?
  3. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    I think there are a good number of reasons the Patriots should win, and I believe they will, but this is not one of them.

    This factors in games early in the season, which may or may not be completely meaningless when it comes Super Bowl time. Do an analysis of how teams were playing coming down the stretch (including the playoffs) and then present that. I think there is something to the adage "hot at the right time", however I do do also believe superior talent should win out (see 2007 World Series)
  4. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    When you give BB 2 weeks to prepare and you have TB in your team on a beautiful and warm Sunday, you are asking for forgiveness.
  5. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    The patriots rank #1 in offense and 4th in defense points allowed this season meaning they are more than qualified among the majority of SB champions

    If those stats mean anything then the Giants may be one of the worst teams in terms of offense and defense to ever play in Super Bowl history

    This all adds up to smell like blowout city

    The Patriots with those 2 rankings are in the top 3 best ranked of all teams ever as a SB participant.
  6. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    You can say that stats are emaningless or stuff like that but 0 for freaking 37 is something that is hard to ignore

    Its like rolling dice 37 times and not coming up once with the number you pick from 2 to 12
  7. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    I believe the Pats will win the SB by a wide margin. However, when 2 teams face each other in the regular season in a game decided by 7 points or less, and then have a rematch in the SB, the team that lost the regular season game has won the SB rematch 6 out of 7 times. The only exception is the 1986 Broncos, who lost to the NYG by 3 and then lost the Sb 39-20, despite leading at halftime.

    IOW, the NYG gain an advantage by having played the Pats close in the regular season. That advantage mitigates against any other statistical "rules" governing winning and losing the SB.
  8. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    While that stat you posted is interesting, I will take the 0-37 streak over a 6 out of 7 anytime
  9. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    Everybody expected Giants to loose in the last 4 weeks and they proved everybody wrong. Eli suddenly plays better than his brother. Who would figure that.? I guess a collected phone call from his brother, PM, helped him get better.

    BB and TB will remind Giants about pats.
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2008
  10. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Man, that is the last thing in the world that I was saying. My point was that stats accumulated very early on in the season have little bearing on what's going to happen on the field in February.

    Early in the season, the Giants were getting lit up like a Christmas tree, but their defense has substantially improved.

    Early in the season, the Patriots were blowing everyone out, and as the season went on their games got closer.

    I'm not saying I think the Giants are as good as the Pats, because they aren't, and I don't think it close. I'm just trying to point out that looking at rankings for the whole season are almost irrelevant when trying to analytically discuss the matchup. To say that what I said was "stats are meaningless" is the worst possible misinterpretation of my point.
  11. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    I think the Giants have an excellent but under the radar coaching staff,In time even the worst QBs should improve......
  12. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Unless someone can give a viable, scientific explanation for that, I fail to see any "advantage" gained and consider it to be a statistical anomaly based on a small sample size.
  13. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Agreed 100%. If two teams make the Super Bowl, they are both QUALITY teams, regardless of whether they played during the regular season. 7 games is not nearly a large enough sample to say anything definitive about that, and even if you wanted to a far better case would need to be made than simply telling us who won.
  14. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    I agree - I think that when a stat has a large 0 for... its to be respected as something that may be near impossible to do but when you say 6 out of 7 its been done before and is not so remarkable as an 0 for streak that has gone unbeaten for more than 3
    decades
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2008
  15. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Okay, since you're the one who brought up the research in the first place..

    How many other teams which weren't in the top 10 in offense OR defense have ever PLAYED in the Super Bowl? Also, are you just measuring by OYPG and DYPG, or are you factoring in other measures as well, because there are far more efficient numbers by which to measure offensive and defensive success.

    Let's see your numbers.
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2008
  16. Grogan's neck roll

    Grogan's neck roll Rookie

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    Based on what I saw on nfl.com he was just referring to scoring offense and scoring defense.
  17. Absurdly Metro

    Absurdly Metro Rookie

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    I am as biased as the next Pats fan but this is a pretty interesting statistic and shouldn't be discounted. Yes, anything can happen and the Giants have a chance to win but, there must be a reason why NO team has ever won a superbowl (since the merger) without ranking in the top ten in either offense or defense and that only 22% (8 of 37) have won without having had both units ranked in the top ten.

    BTW PFinPA, where did the 2001 team rank? I could've sworn they were not in top ten in either category that year.
  18. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Well, that's not typically how defensive and offensive ranks are calculated, I believe the standard is by yards per game. But there are even better stats than that by which to evaluate efficiency on both sides of the ball (yards per point, for example).

    If we want to have a discussion with stats, I'm MORE than open to it, my issue was that cherry picking stats to make your point is not really worth discussing. I'd be much more interested in seeing how the teams are playing NOW, rather than how they played in September.
  19. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    First off, its offensive points scored and defensive points allowed - and what does it matter what other aspects it involves? - its a stat that spans 37 years regardless of any other stuff - what more do you need and why would it make any difference?

    And as far as any teams not in the top 10 getting into the Super Bowl - WHo gives a crap?

    Its winning it that matters and no other team has EVER done it in NFL History whether they were in it or not.

    Both of your questions are for the most part irrelevant to what was in the OP
  20. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    So you are saying that if we had lost the last game of the season we would have won the superbowl. I wish Brady had known that. He could have thrown a pick or something. Dummy Brady, he was thinking that winning the superbowl depended on how he played in the superbowl. Rats. Well, there's always next year. We'll just have to lose to every team that might be in the superbowl so as to guarantee another Lombardi.
  21. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    My points aren't at all irrelevant just because you think they are. I concede that no team has ever won without a scoring offense or a scoring defense in the top 10, but that doesn't prove anything without looking at the teams closer, I'm sorry.

    If a team is playing well at the end of the season (for any number of reasons), they are a more dangerous foe heading into the postseason, even if that success is NOT reflected in their overall season numbers. This is plainly the case with the Giants, who as I said were a very streaky team this season, but is currently on a hot streak (which there is no denying).

    Furthermore, offensive and defensive points allowed (particularly over a whole season) are far from the most telling statistics when it comes to team quality.
  22. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    thanks for your analysis and wouldn't it be lovely if we could all just enjoy the drinks and grub from the second quarter on. my only issue with what you say is that it doesn't take into account how a team performed in the latter part of the season, where the giants did quite well.
  23. Cramden

    Cramden Rookie

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    The 77 Broncos lost to the Cowboys 14-6 in week 14 and 27-10 in the Super Bowl
  24. Cramden

    Cramden Rookie

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    Never mind. For some reason the 7 points or less didn't register with me.
  25. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    The 2001 Patriots ranked 10th in offense and 17th in defense,They should have been included among the 8 teams unless that defense offense stats regards more than the scoring aspects which could explain why they were not included.
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2008
  26. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    knowing your opponent is only 1/2 and Giants doesn't have another half to finish it.
  27. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    This is the point I'm trying to make with him. The Giants were a better second half team, and are playing their best ball of the season NOW. Scoring statistics for the whole season can't even begin to quantify that, so they're basically useless in prognostication for the Super Bowl.
  28. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    While the Giants were indeed playing well in the latter part of the season so was the Chargers with 10 in a row until they ran into a buzzsaw in Foxboro,Same will be for the Giants fate but with the exception of the stadium
  29. denverpatsfan

    denverpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Giants should have lost by 10. The last TD was in garbage time.

    I look at the comparison between the 85 Pats regular season game against the Bears and the Super Bowl. Pats lost 20-7. I guess that isn't within 10 points close but it's closer than the SB was.
  30. SavioKid

    SavioKid Rookie

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    On a flip side, as with any probability, you can give more weight to the recent years stats. And this shows that 4 out of the last 7 SB winners did beat those odds (non top 10 in both categories):
    2000 - Ravens 14th in offense 1st in defense
    2002 - Bucs 18th in offense 1st in defense
    2003 - Patriots 12th in offense 1st in defense
    2006 - Colts 2nd in offense 23rd in defense

    so, it could say that odds are not unlikely that a team like NYG could win it.

    Plus the playoff field has expanded to allow more of the chance that a team without a top 10 ranking making it in the dance since 1998. Why 1990? Because that was the 1st year expanding to the current 12 team system. So maybe comparing the last 16 SB winners is more realistic for the odds of NYG which would decrease significantly...
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