Why the "cut Colvin in 2008 talk?"

[satz]

A system which the patriots run requiring veterans is not going to cut colvin when he is 31.He has another 3 good years left in him the was BB rotates LB to keep them fresh through the game.

You never know they might pay him ....Can some one point to a veteran LB who can step in and play like in him at 31 in the market and his cost ?...

 

[sebman2112]

Referencing a dead money hit basically just tells you what it costs to let him go... that's not exactly the same thing as reducing the cost of keeping him. It means that letting him go isn't free, and the delta between the two is $5.5M.

I've been beating the drum about Colvin being the next big agenda item for a while now... the $7M/Year AAV for AD is one thing, for Colvin? I don't know. Is that "middle/upper middle" going to be extended to the $7M class, based on money available leaguewide? I think he is due for restructuring, and have toyed with the notion that AD might not be so much an addition as a replacement, in the long haul. Of course, that means we need LBs, just moreso.

By the way, I am very leery of reading too much into sack totals. It's like interceptions for cornerbacks - it definitely correlates with performance, if pressure is what you're there for. And with the Pats, that's even more volatile, since when they are really clicking, the core duties are setting the edge and containing the play (at OLB,) and pressure is going to vary with gameplan. Love Colvin, I say extend him, no problem with that. I am not Colvin-bashing. I am just saying we're getting to the hefty end of his contract.

Maybe Colvin = AD, and I am just starstruck, but I don't think so. Anyway... as soon as this recent Moss info has sorted out, I am going to go back to the cap scatter plots, and see if we have the old-style "curve", or whether we are trending to the "hockey stick..." To me, that's the best indication of whether the fiscal approach of previous years has been jettisoned or modified.

PFnV

I don't just go by Sacks, either. I can't remember the sites that list this stat, but I believe Colvin had more QB pressures than anyone else on the team in '06.

 

[Hoodie]

Let's cut Colvin 'cause we are so deep at LB.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I don't just go by Sacks, either. I can't remember the sites that list this stat, but I believe Colvin had more QB pressures than anyone else on the team in '06.

There is the option of letting him play out about where he is in terms of cap hits. We're looking at downright silly inflation (about $7M a year? I forget,) in the cap now... which means a guy can stay at a pretty consistent AAV without being a drain.

Okay, I started looking at our team's cap distribution and others, including the Colts, at ianwhetstone.com tonight.

Two things - I am going to look back at my original scatter charts, including the 06 numbers... Granted, Miguel does his year at year end, and these charts are September 06 (I originally used Miguel's figures...) but the preliminary results?

Going by cap number per player up to 53, In 06 we had a very similar standard deviation to Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Indy. Standard deviation tells you how "spread out" your structure is. Our SD is slightly higher (thus far) in 07 than in 06, but that is pre-Brady/Moss, and it is also unfair to compare one time period against another just in general, since events like the 6/2 cuts and signings could bias things.

I did a count of some benchmarks, and found that in 9/06, the Pats had 11 guys in the $2M+ club, and 23 guys in the $1M+ club. The Clots had exactly as many millionaires, and had 15 making $2M or more. They also did this with a slightly lower standard deviation. This year, prior to Moss figures and Brady adjustments, we have 21 guys counting over $2M against the cap, and a whopping 35 guys counting over $1M. I haven't run any figures for the Colts.

I thank ianwhetstone.com for the excel workbooks to run the 2006 numbers... getting a Colts snapshot now (from another Colts cap site) will be fun, and I'll pull those numbers and our numbers once the Randy/Tom changes are made.

One thing that's interesting in terms of our own curve, is that traditionally it is a fairly gentle curve once you knock off Brady (many other teams do not have that "outlier" as a QB to start with.) But what's becoming apparent is that the curve is moving into a parabolic shape, still with a healthy midsection, but climbing Bradyward all the way around. Obviously once the numbers reflect this weekend's happenings, the curve itself will be less sharp, and the standard deviation will be smaller. But our middle class is growing and shifting to the north on the chart.

All this to say, $7M ain't what it use to be. It's still up there toward "club" status, but it's certainly not stratospheric.... and will be less so if you restructure him and give him a couple years security in exchange for a little bit of a decrease (?) in the AAV.

I dunno. I am just lost on this stuff lately, and freely admit I am not a real "capologist." I am starting to see why they don't shoot their mouths off more about this stuff.

PFnV

 

[brdmaverick]

Colvin has been our best LB over the past two seasons.

 

[patsfan55]

I completely agree. Also, some Pats fan over on the ESPN forum thinks Colvin isn't really that good, and Vrabel is a better pass rusher......

i guess a lot of you guys dont pay attention to him against the run
while i like rosie, and LOVE his big play ability
he is not very good against the run
not sure if id label him below average there, but hes def not above average against the run
he gets sucked in on almost every run off the edge

 

[Fencer]

I don't like how he's been all of:

1. Mr. Goody-goody religious
2. One of the few major jerks after the SD game
3. One of the biggest cramped-up/couldn't-stay-out-there guys in Indy

He's in my lower half of the team for players I like, even though I like the fact that he tries to share his personality with the press and through them the fans.