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Why the "cut Colvin in 2008 talk?"

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by stinkypete, May 1, 2007.

  1. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    Seriously? WFT is going on? Colvin was the only LB who came up with any big plays in 2006. Vrabel and Seau are solid, but Colvin gets the sacks, the big pick, the forced fumble.

    We labled Colvin a bust too early after his injury in 2003. He's improved every year since he returned. He's lost no speed, athleticism or fire in this time. There's no freaking way we cut Rosevelt Colvin after this season. He is part of our long term plans, and I gaurentee this his loss would be felt significantly more than McGinnest's has been.

    Colvin is a key member of this defense and he will be part of our next 3 superbowl runs.
  2. Remix 6

    Remix 6 Rookie

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    i agree..i think Colvin is the best LB we have besides Thomas. I dont see him getting cut..people are busting on him because his cap
    Last edited: May 1, 2007
  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Colvin isn't going to be cut, he just has a meaty cap number that attracts people. He may be extended to reduce the number but he won't be cut.
  4. Kdo5

    Kdo5 Rookie

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    I'd go Thomas then Vrabel THEN Colvin etc etc. Colvin has been great for us IMO. But Vrabel made 2 picks that were instrumental in sneaking past the Lions.
  5. zippo59

    zippo59 Rookie

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    Makes no sense to me. Colvin is an integral component to the defense.
  6. Kdo5

    Kdo5 Rookie

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    I may be wrong but hasnt Rosie had the most sacks on the team two years in a row? I am pretty sure that he did this year not sure about 2005 but I think so.
  7. The 12th Man

    The 12th Man Rookie

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    Yeah, Rosie is a solid LB for us. No need to bring up this "cut" talk. People who are worried about our cap should keep in mind we only have the best in the business in our FO when it comes to that. Don't sweat it, everything will come together.
  8. SeanBruschi54

    SeanBruschi54 Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    If Colvin likes it here just extend him and everyone is happy. If not he has been a very good to great contributor to this team and at 30-31 he still possesses great speed and stregth.
  9. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Some people need to take a chill... When I mentioned it, I said that Colvin would get an extension or be cut. I don't think he's worth 7.3 million for one season as a cap number. That number needs to be reduced. Hence, the reason I prefaced it with the talk of an extension.
  10. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    I completely agree. Also, some Pats fan over on the ESPN forum thinks Colvin isn't really that good, and Vrabel is a better pass rusher......
  11. SeanBruschi54

    SeanBruschi54 Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Its basically 5.5 million since the rest is dead money.
  12. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Yea, and for what he is that's not to much to pay him. I'd like to restructure his contract or extend him, but I asolutely would not cut him if he doesn't want to take less. Now if for some reason his level of play falls off then we can talk, but if his '07 is simular to his '06 there's no way in hell I'd cut him. Also, BB really likes him.
  13. SeanBruschi54

    SeanBruschi54 Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Very smart player who always seems to have a quick witted answer for something.

    Quick wits usually translates into a good character and crafty player. See Mike Vrabel.

    Money says he stays with a new extension. Unless he really feels he wants a ton of money but i doubt it since its one of the reasons he came here. To win and win often.
  14. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Referencing a dead money hit basically just tells you what it costs to let him go... that's not exactly the same thing as reducing the cost of keeping him. It means that letting him go isn't free, and the delta between the two is $5.5M.

    I've been beating the drum about Colvin being the next big agenda item for a while now... the $7M/Year AAV for AD is one thing, for Colvin? I don't know. Is that "middle/upper middle" going to be extended to the $7M class, based on money available leaguewide? I think he is due for restructuring, and have toyed with the notion that AD might not be so much an addition as a replacement, in the long haul. Of course, that means we need LBs, just moreso.

    By the way, I am very leery of reading too much into sack totals. It's like interceptions for cornerbacks - it definitely correlates with performance, if pressure is what you're there for. And with the Pats, that's even more volatile, since when they are really clicking, the core duties are setting the edge and containing the play (at OLB,) and pressure is going to vary with gameplan. Love Colvin, I say extend him, no problem with that. I am not Colvin-bashing. I am just saying we're getting to the hefty end of his contract.

    Maybe Colvin = AD, and I am just starstruck, but I don't think so. Anyway... as soon as this recent Moss info has sorted out, I am going to go back to the cap scatter plots, and see if we have the old-style "curve", or whether we are trending to the "hockey stick..." To me, that's the best indication of whether the fiscal approach of previous years has been jettisoned or modified.

    PFnV
    Last edited: May 1, 2007
  15. Wotan_the_Wanderer

    Wotan_the_Wanderer Rookie

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    Yes, ideally his cap number is reduced. However, I still think the team can deal with $7.3 M for one year if an extension cannot be reached without cutting the guy. They did it with Law in the past for similar numbers when the cap was lower.
  16. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Law filled the top of the chart for a couple years in terms of cap hit. Even back then, Law was getting more than we're talking about here. It wasn't until they told him to hit the road that Brady began to be compensated like a super bowl QB.

    PFnV
  17. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Why are people in such a hurry to mischaracterize every thread into a "let's cut X" thread?

    I write that Caldwell is getting too much money for a #4 receiver, and that he won't make the 53 man roster unless he takes a pay cut, and everybody tells me I'm an idiot for hating on Caldwell.

    I write that Colvin is a source of cap space in 2008, and everybody think I'm a Colvin hater.

    I like these players. I liked Lawyer Miloy and Deion Branch too. When I say they need to take less money (or in the case of Colvin, merely suggest the possibility), I'm not saying that they are terrible football players.

    I'm begining to doubt the legend of the "Givens won't make the team" thread.
  18. pats63

    pats63 Rookie

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    Rosey isn't going anywhere....
  19. ChoWZa

    ChoWZa Rookie

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    Couple of last year players.
    Brown, Bruschi, Harrison, Colvin(atleast as a patriot), probably Vrabel.

    Colvin too big a cap hit.
  20. ChoWZa

    ChoWZa Rookie

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    No your perfectly right. When I look at the salary cap I see Colvin as a last year type.
  21. satz

    satz Rookie

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    A system which the patriots run requiring veterans is not going to cut colvin when he is 31.He has another 3 good years left in him the was BB rotates LB to keep them fresh through the game.

    You never know they might pay him ....Can some one point to a veteran LB who can step in and play like in him at 31 in the market and his cost ?...
  22. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    I don't just go by Sacks, either. I can't remember the sites that list this stat, but I believe Colvin had more QB pressures than anyone else on the team in '06.
  23. Hoodie

    Hoodie Rookie

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    Let's cut Colvin 'cause we are so deep at LB. ;)
  24. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There is the option of letting him play out about where he is in terms of cap hits. We're looking at downright silly inflation (about $7M a year? I forget,) in the cap now... which means a guy can stay at a pretty consistent AAV without being a drain.

    Okay, I started looking at our team's cap distribution and others, including the Colts, at ianwhetstone.com tonight.

    Two things - I am going to look back at my original scatter charts, including the 06 numbers... Granted, Miguel does his year at year end, and these charts are September 06 (I originally used Miguel's figures...) but the preliminary results?

    Going by cap number per player up to 53, In 06 we had a very similar standard deviation to Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Indy. Standard deviation tells you how "spread out" your structure is. Our SD is slightly higher (thus far) in 07 than in 06, but that is pre-Brady/Moss, and it is also unfair to compare one time period against another just in general, since events like the 6/2 cuts and signings could bias things.

    I did a count of some benchmarks, and found that in 9/06, the Pats had 11 guys in the $2M+ club, and 23 guys in the $1M+ club. The Clots had exactly as many millionaires, and had 15 making $2M or more. They also did this with a slightly lower standard deviation. This year, prior to Moss figures and Brady adjustments, we have 21 guys counting over $2M against the cap, and a whopping 35 guys counting over $1M. I haven't run any figures for the Colts.

    I thank ianwhetstone.com for the excel workbooks to run the 2006 numbers... getting a Colts snapshot now (from another Colts cap site) will be fun, and I'll pull those numbers and our numbers once the Randy/Tom changes are made.

    One thing that's interesting in terms of our own curve, is that traditionally it is a fairly gentle curve once you knock off Brady (many other teams do not have that "outlier" as a QB to start with.) But what's becoming apparent is that the curve is moving into a parabolic shape, still with a healthy midsection, but climbing Bradyward all the way around. Obviously once the numbers reflect this weekend's happenings, the curve itself will be less sharp, and the standard deviation will be smaller. But our middle class is growing and shifting to the north on the chart.

    All this to say, $7M ain't what it use to be. It's still up there toward "club" status, but it's certainly not stratospheric.... and will be less so if you restructure him and give him a couple years security in exchange for a little bit of a decrease (?) in the AAV.

    I dunno. I am just lost on this stuff lately, and freely admit I am not a real "capologist." I am starting to see why they don't shoot their mouths off more about this stuff.

    PFnV
    Last edited: May 2, 2007
  25. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    Colvin has been our best LB over the past two seasons.
  26. patsfan55

    patsfan55 Rookie

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    i guess a lot of you guys dont pay attention to him against the run
    while i like rosie, and LOVE his big play ability
    he is not very good against the run
    not sure if id label him below average there, but hes def not above average against the run
    he gets sucked in on almost every run off the edge
  27. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    I don't like how he's been all of:

    1. Mr. Goody-goody religious
    2. One of the few major jerks after the SD game
    3. One of the biggest cramped-up/couldn't-stay-out-there guys in Indy

    He's in my lower half of the team for players I like, even though I like the fact that he tries to share his personality with the press and through them the fans.

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