Thank you for your response. It is well reasoned, but the problem is that it is not backed up by the facts in this case.
You have mentioned that NE's balance is created by runs in the second half, and compared Indy favorably to this. However, as I said before, this is not the case. I randomly picked two games that both teams won handily, and this was the result:
In the four games that I sampled, Indy is by a wide margin the more pass heavy offense. You absolutely cannot say it is a concern with NE unless you say the same thing about Indy. The problem is, not only do you say this, but you even go as far as saying it is a concern for NE and it is an asset for Indy. That is beyond ridiculous. I think Indy's run game is better than NE's, but using one to say the other is a concern is like me telling you that Indy's passing offense is a concern because NE's has performed better.
With regard to Manning's kneeling, what you ignore is the fact that in four games (Jets, Buffalo, Clev, Dallas) NE has been in position to have Brady kneel, but instead chose to dust a RB off from the bench and have him run it into the line. I'm not even going to bother calculating the impact those 15 rushes fro 31 yards has on the average because we both know it would be at least the .25 yards that Peyton's extra kneels made.
Funny that you mention the Vikings, because not even trying to run is *exactly* how NE beat them last year and Minny never recovered. "Break[ing] that wall down" is the most asinine thing a good team can do. Frankly, Indy would never do that either. They would run to change it up (just like NE did) with little to no success (like NE) but they would move the ball through the air (like NE). Put it this way, Dallas played their base 3-4 defense nearly the entire game and they kept all four LBs near the LOS to stop the run. Along with that, they had a S shaded to Moss' side the entire game, forcing the other S (neither of which being any good a coverage) to protect 3/4 of the field by hmself. Why in hell would a team that is good at both running and passing choose to bang their heads against the wall when they can get Welker or Stallworth in single coverage, possibly with LBs? We know Indy would do the same thing, because they do when they are faced with the same thing. Just look at the TB game, when Indy gave a token effort to run the ball, but passed it twice as much.
Lastly, I never discounted the quality of defenses. In the post that you responded to, I touched on that:
Sooooo, taking into consideration the quality of the defenses faced, Indy still comse out ever so slightly ahead. Again, I'm willing to grant you that Indy's rush O is better, but NE's is still very good. It is not a concern in the least.
Sorry about the length of this, but please respond to this with something other than gut feelings and incorrect notions that I already disputed. Thanks for your time.
Hey O-
Instead of randomly selecting a few games, I took some time to check on the P/R ratio of NE. You chose a couple that were won "handily". For NE, pretty easy, take your pick
. Anyway, I came up with roughly 87 runs for NE in the first half, and 123 passes, with 5 sacks(total dropbacks 128). These numbers may not be exact but they should be close. For Indy, I just got through the first 2 games (not out of convenience to not report facts, just time consuming-is there an easier way?) Anyway, the Colts were 16/16 V. N.O. and 10/19 V. Tennessee. I assume your numbers for Tampa were close. I will look at totaling up all 5 of Indy's games. Just looking at NE's, it would appear to be skewed, but I understand, it is obviously working. I guess one of my points would be that in the past, this might be something that the Colts would get jumped for. "Manning is a stat freak", "you have to be able to run in the post season", "what happens when Manning has an off day, and the pass game gets shut down", etc...,
The kneels were interesting. Brady has taken a knee in two games just before the half. Meanwhile, (in the Tennessee game)Manning is passing (6 straight times) with 1:12 to play in the half, starting at his own 17, with 1 time out(IIRC). They made it all the way to the 4 yard line, but cut the time too close, and gained a FG, giving them a 16-6 halftime lead. So, while TB is kneeling (and his numbers are being removed to help team YPC {btw, I don't think I took out the kneels in the R/P portion, counted it as a run-helps the first half run total, IIRC}), Manning is INCREASING team pass numbers in first half. PM could have taken a knee, and those first half TN numbers would have been 10/13. Now, I understand TB was starting at his own 2 yard line(Cincy game), not sure what Dungy and Co. would have done, my guess is run it a time or two to see what happens. At first and 10 from your own 24, with :46 to play(Dallas game), I know what the Colts would have done there. The opportunities to possibly move the ball and score at the end of the half were passed up by NE, and attempted by the Colts-leading to additional first half passes for Colts, and fewer for NE. The other interseting thing about the kneels is that BB decides to take them in the first half, to protect the ball, and not allow the opponent an opportunity to score on a fluke play, yet in the 4th quarter, instead of protecting the ball in this same manner, he goes with a riskier play, and allows the ball to be handed off, and the runner to subject himself to a possible strip.
On the Vikings, in no way was I suggesting a different game plan, what I was referring to is, down the road, in the playoffs, when running the ball is a must, when you meet that brick wall, (or you anticipate that wall) you have to find a way. Rhodes and Addai did it AT Baltimore (stout run D) to help ice the game, Addai carried it the last 11 yards in the AFCCG, and the combo did it again to help wear down the Bears in the SB. Again, these are all points that our opposition would say about us, in years past, when Manning was lighting up the Scoreboard. In the end, it's what's good for the goose
As for the level of competition, and rush D's, you have faced the 23rd, 25th,29th,30th ranked defenses.
Indy has faced 1,14,19,21, and of course, 32nd. Tampa was 8th at the time we played them, and we all knew Denver sucked. Certainly you might be able to say that about an opponent or two of yours, but my guess is, they were BAD before you played them, and they were BAD after you played them. This week you will get to feast on #31.
Woeful might have been a strong word, but I still don't think you are as balanced (both pct. wise and effectiveness wise) as some might think.
