- Joined
- Aug 3, 2009
- Messages
- 5,744
- Reaction score
- 5,306
Why Super Bowl repeats are so hard to achieve
Really good article from last year written for the Seahawks about the difficulties in repeating. The Seahawks bucked the trend by returning to the Super Bowl, but prior to them, the last Super Bowl champion to even win a play-off game was the 2005 Patriots. Between 8 other champions, they were 0-4 in the play-offs the next year, with 4 missing the play-offs entirely.
It also breaks down each team and why they failed to repeat. A lot of teams lost free agents. Injuries happened. Lots of things could go wrong.
Since the salary cap era, only 4 teams have gone back to the Super Bowl the year after winning it, and only 2 have won back-to-back.
Back-to-back Super Bowl winners in the salary cap era
- *1998 Broncos
- 2004 Patriots
*asterisk for the salary cap violations.
Back-to-Super Bowl after winning once in the salary cap era
- 1997 Packers
- 2014 Seahawks
I couldn't find a common theme between them. Those Packers had Favre in his prime, while the Broncos used Terrell Davis and cheated the salary cap. And there have been some great regular seasons from Super Bowl winners like Green Bay going 15-1 the year after, and though they lost in the first round, it's hard to say they didn't have a good team that year.
But the 2004 Patriots and 2014 Seahawks were of particular interest.
The 2004 Patriots acquired Corey Dillon in the off-season, a big move that changed their offense. They also signed Keith Traylor, an underrated move at the time. They didn't get a huge boost from the draft. Wilfork was probably the biggest impact rookie that season, although he only started 6 games. They lost Law and Poole during the season as well. Brady took a step up that year as did David Givens to take over for a hurting Branch, but Dillon made a huge impact on the run game, pushing the offense from 12th to 4th in points.
Perhaps even more meaningful, the 2014 Seahawks were the first team since the 2005 Patriots to win a play-off game the next year. They also had a rough start to free agency, losing Golden Tate, Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Brandon Browner, Clinton McDonald, and Walter Thurmond. Their offensive line was missing 3 guys who started games in 2013 with Michael Bowie getting waived for being overweight, as well as losing guys like Paul McQuistan and Breno Giacomini. But the young defensive talent continued to improve, as did QB Russell Wilson. They also overcame Lynch's temporary hold-out and the in-season trade of Percy Harvin to make it back to the Super Bowl.
We obviously have lost a few pieces, including a hugely important one in Revis. But last year's Seahawks are a reminder that losing in free agency doesn't guarantee impending doom. They lost 4 defensive starters, their two most dangerous WRs, several other key players, 3 OL starters, and still found a way back to the championship game because their younger players got better. We also have young defensive talent emerging and improving, with another year of experience and another off-season for Jones, Siliga, Hightower, and Collins, as well as bigger roles for Easley and Butler. And unlike the Seahawks, our OL remains mostly intact, and should get even better as Stork and Solder have another year under their belts.
So yes, history is against us repeating. Heck, it's against us even winning a play-off game. And there are key guys who are no longer on the roster. But we have a shot because we have so many young kids who will hopefully continue to grow and mature. You can't even give up on guys like Ryan because Harmon and Wilson went through ups and downs and started trending back up as well. Maybe the opportunity now to play consistently will push Ryan towards a great offseason. Or maybe Butler. Maybe this offseason will be the one where Harmon or Wilson emerge and overtake Chung. Who knows?
But that's why a team like Indy isn't as dangerous as everyone thinks. Luck will improve as will Fleener, but what about the rest of that aging roster? Ditto the Broncos, who have a lot of talent, but not a lot of upside potential. The Bills went big in free agency, but guys like Cassell, McCoy, and Clay are what they are, and have more downside than up. The Jets got Revis with a lot of risk, and an older version of Cromartie, as well as Fitzpatrick to help run the show. They are what they are, and there's not a lot of potential growth.
So much of success relies on the maturation of potential to talent, and we've got lots of potential. Our chances next year are going to rely a lot more on how much we can improve internally than any big signings we make.
Really good article from last year written for the Seahawks about the difficulties in repeating. The Seahawks bucked the trend by returning to the Super Bowl, but prior to them, the last Super Bowl champion to even win a play-off game was the 2005 Patriots. Between 8 other champions, they were 0-4 in the play-offs the next year, with 4 missing the play-offs entirely.
It also breaks down each team and why they failed to repeat. A lot of teams lost free agents. Injuries happened. Lots of things could go wrong.
Since the salary cap era, only 4 teams have gone back to the Super Bowl the year after winning it, and only 2 have won back-to-back.
Back-to-back Super Bowl winners in the salary cap era
- *1998 Broncos
- 2004 Patriots
*asterisk for the salary cap violations.
Back-to-Super Bowl after winning once in the salary cap era
- 1997 Packers
- 2014 Seahawks
I couldn't find a common theme between them. Those Packers had Favre in his prime, while the Broncos used Terrell Davis and cheated the salary cap. And there have been some great regular seasons from Super Bowl winners like Green Bay going 15-1 the year after, and though they lost in the first round, it's hard to say they didn't have a good team that year.
But the 2004 Patriots and 2014 Seahawks were of particular interest.
The 2004 Patriots acquired Corey Dillon in the off-season, a big move that changed their offense. They also signed Keith Traylor, an underrated move at the time. They didn't get a huge boost from the draft. Wilfork was probably the biggest impact rookie that season, although he only started 6 games. They lost Law and Poole during the season as well. Brady took a step up that year as did David Givens to take over for a hurting Branch, but Dillon made a huge impact on the run game, pushing the offense from 12th to 4th in points.
Perhaps even more meaningful, the 2014 Seahawks were the first team since the 2005 Patriots to win a play-off game the next year. They also had a rough start to free agency, losing Golden Tate, Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Brandon Browner, Clinton McDonald, and Walter Thurmond. Their offensive line was missing 3 guys who started games in 2013 with Michael Bowie getting waived for being overweight, as well as losing guys like Paul McQuistan and Breno Giacomini. But the young defensive talent continued to improve, as did QB Russell Wilson. They also overcame Lynch's temporary hold-out and the in-season trade of Percy Harvin to make it back to the Super Bowl.
We obviously have lost a few pieces, including a hugely important one in Revis. But last year's Seahawks are a reminder that losing in free agency doesn't guarantee impending doom. They lost 4 defensive starters, their two most dangerous WRs, several other key players, 3 OL starters, and still found a way back to the championship game because their younger players got better. We also have young defensive talent emerging and improving, with another year of experience and another off-season for Jones, Siliga, Hightower, and Collins, as well as bigger roles for Easley and Butler. And unlike the Seahawks, our OL remains mostly intact, and should get even better as Stork and Solder have another year under their belts.
So yes, history is against us repeating. Heck, it's against us even winning a play-off game. And there are key guys who are no longer on the roster. But we have a shot because we have so many young kids who will hopefully continue to grow and mature. You can't even give up on guys like Ryan because Harmon and Wilson went through ups and downs and started trending back up as well. Maybe the opportunity now to play consistently will push Ryan towards a great offseason. Or maybe Butler. Maybe this offseason will be the one where Harmon or Wilson emerge and overtake Chung. Who knows?
But that's why a team like Indy isn't as dangerous as everyone thinks. Luck will improve as will Fleener, but what about the rest of that aging roster? Ditto the Broncos, who have a lot of talent, but not a lot of upside potential. The Bills went big in free agency, but guys like Cassell, McCoy, and Clay are what they are, and have more downside than up. The Jets got Revis with a lot of risk, and an older version of Cromartie, as well as Fitzpatrick to help run the show. They are what they are, and there's not a lot of potential growth.
So much of success relies on the maturation of potential to talent, and we've got lots of potential. Our chances next year are going to rely a lot more on how much we can improve internally than any big signings we make.
Last edited:
