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Why Should Obama be more worried than McCain??

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Lifer, Aug 10, 2008.

  1. Lifer

    Lifer Banned

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    For all the talk about the media being slanted to Obama there is all this talk lately about how Obama should be so concerned because hes only 5 points up (when you average all the polls).

    Yes, he shouldnt take anything for granted. But if Obama should be worried because he never seems to go higher than 46 to 48, what does that make McCain, who never goes higher than 41 to 43?

    tell me the blue states Obama is about to lose to McCain? While i can tell you 7 or 8 Red States Obama is poised to win.
    Iowa, New Mexico,Colorado,Nevada,Montana,Virginia,Ohio,Missouri,North Carolina,Florida, and Indiana are all vunerable.

    This is Obama's race to lose. And he is no Dukakis.
     
  2. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I think there are two major factors:

    1. Who the VP Candidate is

    2. What crisis is going on at the time elections are occurring? Will oil go down where people "forget" how high it was and will they go back into a state of denial or will oil rise and hit people in the wallet for gas and heat? What happens in Iraq and Afghanstan? What happens with Iran and Israel? What happens with Russia? Does the dollar continue to strengthen? What does the job outlook and unemployment rate look like?

    everything else right now is rhetoric
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2008
  3. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Considering all the problems plaguing the Bush administration and republicans ... he should be up by more and he isn't. I don't really think there's much more he can do ... most of the people agaist him are either from the right or unsure because he is so green as a politician.
     
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    It's just the context with which you take it. Of course you are right, based solely on winning or losing Obama has less to worry about. But, just like a certain football team I hate to mention, he has been such a big favorite that he'll look like a total doofus if he loses. This is the unloseable election for the Democrats and if Obama somehow loses it'll be the political loss that will never be forgotten.
     
  5. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    the bigger question is..... how many people who actually vote are as educated as the posters here(well most of it is right) and how many are hearing the soundbytes and thus vote on misinformation?

    is it 30% educated? more? less?
     
  6. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Oh ... I think many are educated formally ... blinded politically ... that's how Bush won.
     
  7. Lifer

    Lifer Banned

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    As Adlai Stevenson responded when a supporter told him "any voter with any intelligence will vote for you", "Thats not enough, i need a majority"
     
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The whole VP thing is critical, particularly as the whole office has been redefined since Richard has been in power...

    It also seems that while McCain is playing hardball and has delivered quite a few jabs himself or his mouthpieces, Rush et al.. Obama and his minions have been playing nice and they need to develop a harder edge.
     
  9. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Historically speaking, Obama is in a similar position to Kerry, Dukakis, and I believe Gore were in poll wise. Also, there is the differences in polls that ask registered, versus likely voters. Obama's dependence on young voters scares some people. Add in the fact that Obama is by far the "riskier" choice, and you can see why some people are worried about where he's headed. McLame has his own set of problems, which is why this election is so hard to predict. Furthermore, it's not national polls that really matter. It's the states that matter. In that sense, Obama has the edge in the electoral map, but nothing certifiable. It should be a fun couple of months for sure.
     
  10. STFarmy

    STFarmy In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yes, I believe it was James Carville who quipped that there is a term for politicians who rely on the youth vote: "loser." Obama should actually be much farther ahead in the polls given the opinion of Bush all over the country and the relatively easy pass he gets from the media. But he's not. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, as a few here have said. Both have strengths and faults that make this election very very tough to predict.
     
  11. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    It's tough to read the polls. How many additional young people will vote ? Same with black people who could vote a lot more than normal. OTOH, how many people aren't going to vote for a (half) black man but won't admit it to pollsters ? Not trying to make this racist but it is what it is.
     
  12. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    It's not racist to say that cuz it's a genuine factor. There are lots of questions on both sides that make this race hard to predict. The dems have enrolled lots and lots of new voters, will they vote, and are there enough in battleground states to tip the scales in their favor? In a state like Virginia, where there is a sizable black community, will they push Obama over the top? How many of the "independents" that are increasing in size, are pissed off republicans? How dependable is the youth vote? How will VP choices affect specific voting blocks that support either candidate? Will a Romney choice push evangelicals to stay home, and will a non-Clinton choice push women to move toward McLame? Lots of scenario's outside of any surprises, or world incidents, that may arise. I think the fear Obama supporters have is in the fact that it's even close. This is the election that the republicans simply shouldn't win. It being 4-6% in most polls should concern dems.
     

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