Why it's stupid to draft for need right now

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just look at last year. We were wondering if we'd carry seven receivers since they were all "so good"- we ended up cutting Tate and Price. Nobody else was even decent after Branch, so we played with a two-deep WR core all ear. Nobody thought it would make any sense to draft a wide receiver last year, and when we got Ocho, we wondered why it was even necessary.

We were convinced that our secondary was primed and ready to go with a solid safety combination in Chung and Merriweather, elite corners in McCourty and Bodden, and some decent depth. Well, how did that work out? By the time the season started, Meriweather and Sanders were gone, Dowling was injured, Bodden was useless/injured, and it turned out McCourty can't play man coverage.

Yet, last year, we all thought we should address the front 7 at draft time. The front 7 was actually pretty darn good last year, especially with Carter. But even without him, we saw several of our d-linemen step up, the emergence of Ninkovich, and vast improvement from Spikes. Cunningham was the only major disappointment.

My point?

We have $20M in cap space to sign some key players for next season at positions of need. For the draft, these are the types of players we'll need to build the rest of the team around. Draft the best player available, with the exception of quarterback. Who the heck knows where the strengths and weaknesses will be next season.

 

[PatsFan2]

Just look at last year. We were wondering if we'd carry seven receivers since they were all "so good"- we ended up cutting Tate and Price. Nobody else was even decent after Branch, so we played with a two-deep WR core all ear. Nobody thought it would make any sense to draft a wide receiver last year, and when we got Ocho, we wondered why it was even necessary.

We were convinced that our secondary was primed and ready to go with a solid safety combination in Chung and Merriweather, elite corners in McCourty and Bodden, and some decent depth. Well, how did that work out? By the time the season started, Meriweather and Sanders were gone, Dowling was injured, Bodden was useless/injured, and it turned out McCourty can't play man coverage.

Yet, last year, we all thought we should address the front 7 at draft time. The front 7 was actually pretty darn good last year, especially with Carter. But even without him, we saw several of our d-linemen step up, the emergence of Ninkovich, and vast improvement from Spikes. Cunningham was the only major disappointment.

My point?

We have $20M in cap space to sign some key players for next season at positions of need. For the draft, these are the types of players we'll need to build the rest of the team around. Draft the best player available, with the exception of quarterback. Who the heck knows where the strengths and weaknesses will be next season.

A chain is as stong as it's weakest link...our Defense especially pass rush have been this Teams problems since losing McGinest and Vrabel to age. I see your point to a point...but lets say your scenario plays out and the BPA is a TE...i know both myself and others would be pretty pissed if the Patriots Drafted a TE in Rounds 1 or 2. There is alot of holes on our Defense we NEED more complete playes on that side of the ball instead the average Two Down Thumpers.

 

[signbabybrady]

Your point is more directed toward not ignoring a position even if you think it is well stalked rather than dont draft for need.

and you used CB as an example stating we all thought we were good due to Chung and Merriweather and Bodden and McCourty which is an example of BB not ignoring a preceived stalked unit (or maybe he perceived it as bare when we all though it was OK) as he went ahead and drafted Dowling 33 overall. I remember how upset most people were with the pick at the time thinking it wasnt a need and funny how it turned out we could have really used him and he wasnt there either.

I think BB has explained the dont draft for need logic perfectly. If you identify a specific position as your biggest need but there isnt talent at that position but when your up to select and you reach for one of these guys you likely wont fix the problem and will be right back at it again next year.

 

[signbabybrady]

A chain is as stong as it's weakest link...our Defense especially pass rush have been this Teams problems since losing McGinest and Vrabel to age. I see your point to a point...but lets say your scenario plays out and the BPA is a TE...i know both myself and others would be pretty pissed if the Patriots Drafted a TE in Rounds 1 or 2. There is alot of holes on our Defense we NEED more complete playes on that side of the ball instead the average Two Down Thumpers.

Honestly I dont see it as that crazy to draft another TE. Two simple reasons, first if you are going to rely so heavily on TEs it makes it more important to have viable back ups. Think about how backwards the logic was this year our top 4 targets on O were Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, and Branch. We had 3 guys backing up the WR (Edelman, Tiquan, and Chad) we add zero guys backing up the TEs come the end of the season (sure we had Gronk2 on speed dial and ****erson and Mills on the PS).


Second they both will be FA in two seasons and we may not be able to keep both so start grooming the next guy now.

Heck I might even want 4 TEs on the rosted next year when you consider how vastly different the skill sets of Gronk and Hernandez are.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

You could go BPA in the first round or slightly reach for a need that happens to coincides with a BPA ie Solder this season.

2nd round is where I think they should address needs. Only because we really don't have that many picks past the 2nd round.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Of course it makes sense to go for best player available, and it makes the most sense if you can move up or down, within reason, such that the best player available plays one of your positions of greatest need.

 

[Rob0729]

And if you looked at last year and the Pats didn't draft for need, the Pats wouldn't have had Solder and the Pats would have been screwed at RT for most of the year and LT for several games.

Also, I dispute the Pats were all set at WR too. The Pats had a need at WR last year at draft time because I don't think the Pats were convinced that Branch was going to last the season or play at the same level as last year nor felt confident any player on the roster could replace him. That is why Belichick traded for Ochocinco right before training camp.

The fact is that last year's draft was not a great WR draft after the top WRs. If Jonathan Baldwin dropped to the Pats' second first rounder or first second rounder, the Pats might have jumped on him. But most of the WRs draft last year haven't done much after those guys except for Torrey Smith who is basically running go routes.

Also, outside of an edge rusher, I felt the Pats' need for a front seven player was overrated at the time of the draft last year. The Pats really didn't have a pressing need for d-line help (unless you consider a 4-3 DE) although people were all over 3-4 DE prospects on this board.

 

[mgteich]

We didn't have a front seven need?

Then why did Belichick spend considerable resources on Carter, Anderson, Ellis, Haynsworth and Warren. Clearly, we need front seven help.

I suppose some thought that we could get solid production from more than 2 of Deaderick, Love, Brace, Pryor and Wright.

.
Also, outside of an edge rusher, I felt the Pats' need for a front seven player was overrated at the time of the draft last year. The Pats really didn't have a pressing need for d-line help (unless you consider a 4-3 DE) although people were all over 3-4 DE prospects on this board.

 

[ay-yo]

I've always thought need was part of the equation for evaluating a prospect. An over simplified example:

College production: 0-2.5
Combine results: 0-2.5
Interview / intangibles: 0-2.5
Position of need: 0-2.5
Overall grade: sum of above

I don't think any team goes pure BPA or pure need. It's a matter of how you weight the different categories. Then there are other factors like the overall structure of the draft. If there 2 WRs with 1st round grades and 5 WRs with 2nd round grades vs. only 1 FS with a round 1 or 2 grade your decision will obviously be influenced by this.

 

[mgteich]

It would not be unreasonable to have 4 TE's on the roster. This is especially true since Hernandez could be listed as a TE or a WR or an h-back.

As of now, we have Gronk, Hernandez, Edelman, Underwood and Ochocinco as our receiver signed for 2012.

The situation will be much differen come draft time. I certainly would not be shocked if we draft a TE in the late first.

Honestly I dont see it as that crazy to draft another TE. Two simple reasons, first if you are going to rely so heavily on TEs it makes it more important to have viable back ups. Think about how backwards the logic was this year our top 4 targets on O were Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, and Branch. We had 3 guys backing up the WR (Edelman, Tiquan, and Chad) we add zero guys backing up the TEs come the end of the season (sure we had Gronk2 on speed dial and ****erson and Mills on the PS).


Second they both will be FA in two seasons and we may not be able to keep both so start grooming the next guy now.

Heck I might even want 4 TEs on the rosted next year when you consider how vastly different the skill sets of Gronk and Hernandez are.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Just look at last year. We were wondering if we'd carry seven receivers since they were all "so good"- we ended up cutting Tate and Price. Nobody else was even decent after Branch, so we played with a two-deep WR core all ear. Nobody thought it would make any sense to draft a wide receiver last year, and when we got Ocho, we wondered why it was even necessary.

We were convinced that our secondary was primed and ready to go with a solid safety combination in Chung and Merriweather, elite corners in McCourty and Bodden, and some decent depth. Well, how did that work out? By the time the season started, Meriweather and Sanders were gone, Dowling was injured, Bodden was useless/injured, and it turned out McCourty can't play man coverage.

Yet, last year, we all thought we should address the front 7 at draft time. The front 7 was actually pretty darn good last year, especially with Carter. But even without him, we saw several of our d-linemen step up, the emergence of Ninkovich, and vast improvement from Spikes. Cunningham was the only major disappointment.

My point?

We have $20M in cap space to sign some key players for next season at positions of need. For the draft, these are the types of players we'll need to build the rest of the team around. Draft the best player available, with the exception of quarterback. Who the heck knows where the strengths and weaknesses will be next season.

To play devil's advocate, there were some people who identified WR depth as an issue during the offseason last year (I was one of those people). There were also people who identified safety depth as an issue (I was not one of these people).

Just because most people don't foresee an issue doesn't mean that it can't be foreseen.

 

[PatsFan2]

It would not be unreasonable to have 4 TE's on the roster. This is especially true since Hernandez could be listed as a TE or a WR or an h-back.

As of now, we have Gronk, Hernandez, Edelman, Underwood and Ochocinco as our receiver signed for 2012.

The situation will be much differen come draft time. I certainly would not be shocked if we draft a TE in the late first.

mgteich! if you mention the prospects of us Drfating a TE late First Round one more time...i am going to advocate that you get banned.

 

[VrabelJr]

We never draft for need anyway... lol. Our picks will be used on a combination of WR, DE/DT, CB and G/C... not because we need those... but because thats where the talent will be when we pick.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

We never draft for need anyway... lol. Our picks will be used on a combination of WR, DE/DT, CB and G/C... not because we need those... but because thats where the talent will be when we pick.

Chad Jackson. Laurence Maroney. Big-time reaches. Belichick admitted that they were trying to find a running back. Epic fail. Hope they've learned their lesson.

 

[chicowalker]

Honestly I dont see it as that crazy to draft another TE. Two simple reasons, first if you are going to rely so heavily on TEs it makes it more important to have viable back ups. Think about how backwards the logic was this year our top 4 targets on O were Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, and Branch. We had 3 guys backing up the WR (Edelman, Tiquan, and Chad) we add zero guys backing up the TEs come the end of the season (sure we had Gronk2 on speed dial and ****erson and Mills on the PS).


Second they both will be FA in two seasons and we may not be able to keep both so start grooming the next guy now.

Heck I might even want 4 TEs on the rosted next year when you consider how vastly different the skill sets of Gronk and Hernandez are.

big difference, though, b/t simply drafting a TE and drafting one with a high pick

I'd be pretty unhappy about a first rounder going for a TE, unless we've addressed needs on the defense already through free agency

 

[cmasspatsfan]

BB says theres three ways to build a team, draft, free agents and undrafted free agents. When they draft you have to weigh all three approaches and that usually results in them drsfting the BPA in the draft. I would think they're going to fill in the areas of need with free agents that are proven in this league and take their chances in the draft.

 

[mgteich]

I see you are a relatively new poster.

1) I did not advocate drafting a TE in the first round. I only indicated that I would not rule it out or be surprised.

2) I have followed Belichick drafts and offensive preferences since he's been here. Belichick puts a higher value on tight ends that any GM in the league. Get used to it!

3) Being banned for agreeing with our general team approach seems very strange indeed. But then, everyone has his biases.

Personally, I doubt that the BPA will be a tight end when we draft in the first.

mgteich! if you mention the prospects of us Drfating a TE late First Round one more time...i am going to advocate that you get banned.

 

[mgteich]

On this, we all agree.

Last year we added Carter, Anderson, Ellis, Haynsworth, Warren and Ihedigbo in free agency.

Obviously, our free agency signing affect the value of various positions when we pick.

I'd be pretty unhappy about a first rounder going for a TE, unless we've addressed needs on the defense already through free agency

 

[Leemo]

We never draft for need anyway... lol. Our picks will be used on a combination of WR, DE/DT, CB and G/C... not because we need those... but because thats where the talent will be when we pick.

This guy can see in to the future. How the hell do you know who will be available when we pick? You really do spout some rubbish, you called me out over questioning Coples motor/enthusiasm yet now you question it yourself!

Just go jump on some other teams bandwagon please.

 

[VrabelJr]

This guy can see in to the future. How the hell do you know who will be available when we pick? You really do spout some rubbish, you called me out over questioning Coples motor/enthusiasm yet now you question it yourself!

Just go jump on some other teams bandwagon please.

You didn't question his motor/enthusiasm. You called him lazy. Do some analysis and look at what is likely to be available at the end of the first based on position depth and other team's needs.

edit: I'll take this off forum if you want to discuss my fanmanship and overall Football knowledge. Hell, I only played the game for 10 years.