Why is a top FA LB more likely in 2010?

[patsfan-1982]

I think you may be being a tad pessimistic. I admit to some wishful thinking coloring my choices, but I don't think it's quite as bad as all that. BB has shown a tendency to bring in FA DE/OLBs, from Mike Vrabel in 2001 to Roosevelt Colvin in 2003 to Adalius Thomas in 2007 to Derrick Burgess in 2009. He's made some efforts. I don't see us signing Julius Peppers, and Karlos Dansby is a long shot, but Shawne Merriman or Aaron Kampman aren't out of the question. It may not happen, but I don't think it's impossible.

I've given up trying to predict what BB will do, but if he does want to address the pass rush through the draft, this year has as many potential prospects as any. I listed 21 potential guys from the 1st through the 5th round coming out this year in another thread:

- Derrick Morgan*, Georgia Tech. 6'4" 268#. 1st round pick, likely top 15.
- Carlos Dunlap*, Florida. 6'6" 270-270#. Probably 1st round pick, possibly top 15.
- Greg Hardy, Mississippi. 6'5" 265#. 1st/2nd round pick.
- Jason Pierre-Paul*, USF. 6'6" 265#. 1st/2nd round pick.
- Sergio Kindle, Texas. 6'4" 254#. 1st/2nd round pick.
- Jerry Hughes, Texas Tech. 6'3" 257#. 1st/2nd round pick.
- Everson Griffen*, USC. 6'3" 270+#. 1st/2nd round pick.
- Brandon Graham, Michigan. 6'2" 268#. 1st/2nd round pick.
- Eric Norwood, South Carolina. 6', 252#. Likely 2nd round pick.
- Greg Romeus*, Pittsburgh. 6'5" 265#. Likely 2nd round pick.
- Ricky Sapp, Clemson. 6'4" 248#. Likely 2nd round pick.
- Von Miller*, Texas A&M. 6'3" 240#. Likely 2nd round pick.
- Jeremy Beal*, Oklahoma. 6'3" 260#. Likely 2nd round pick.
- Austen Lane, Murray State. 6'6" 260#. 2nd/3rd round pick.
- Jermaine Cunningham, Florida. 6'3" 250#. Likely 3rd round pick.
- Brandon Lang, Troy. 6'4", 250#. 3rd/4th round pick.
- Jason Worilds, Virginia Tech. 6'2" 252#. 3rd/4th round pick.
- George Selvie, USF. 6'4" 245#. 3rd/4th round pick.
- Willie Young, North Carolina. 6'4" 250#. 3rd/4th round pick.
- O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin. 6'2" 248#. 3rd/4th round pick.
- Lindsey Witten, Connecticut. 6'4" 258#. 4th/5th round pick.

He doesn't have to spend a 1st round pick, but he doesn't have to wait until the 6th or 7th round either. There's almost every variety of pass rusher imaginable in that list - speed rushers like Von Miller and Ricky Sapp, tall guys with strength to set the edge like Greg Romeus and Austen Lane, versatile guys like Jeremy Beal and Eric Norwood, physical freaks like Carlos Dunlap and Jason Pierre-Paul, you name it. I don't think BB is so unrealistic as to imagine that he can succeed with a defense which gets no pressure on the QB, and if he wanted to do something about it, he has plenty of options.

Again, I've given up predicting what BB will do. And I plead guilty to wishful thinking. But I think you are being a tad pessimistic, and I wouldn't give up hope.

i agree it's not a most to pick a OLB in the first round, as long as he gets a starter in the 2th 3rd or 4th round

and with seymour goin and wilfork being a ? they may have to use there first round pick on a D line men if they stay in the first round

 

[celticboy04]

We don't need the big name free agents. We need the lunch pail guys that want to come to work to do their jobs. We need the next Bruschi, the next Ted Johnson, and the next Mike Vrabel type of guys to surround Mayo with. With the talent we already have on defense, there is no reason to go out and spend a ton of money on the flashy free agents.

Greetings,

That is what I have been thinking as well. What made this D so great in the days of Willie Mac, Vrabel, Ted Johnson, and Bruschi was that they were hungry players who were often overlooked. They brought it every single game and you knew winning was their number 1 priority. I think the lure of getting big name FA's gets everyone's eye's lit up and their hopes up too high as well. Plus we have seen what happens to talented teams when they get to "Hollywood.

Shalom,
Celticboy04

 

[patsfan-1982]

Greetings,

That is what I have been thinking as well. What made this D so great in the days of Willie Mac, Vrabel, Ted Johnson, and Bruschi was that they were hungry players who were often overlooked. They brought it every single game and you knew winning was their number 1 priority. I think the lure of getting big name FA's gets everyone's eye's lit up and their hopes up too high as well. Plus we have seen what happens to talented teams when they get to "Hollywood.

Shalom,
Celticboy04

Willie McGinest 800 tackels 86 sacks 5 INT's 2TD's

ted johnson 760 tackels 11.5 sacks 1 INT

Tedy Bruschi 1067 tackels 30.5 sacks 12 INT's 4TD's

Mike Vrabel 670 tackels 57 sacks 11 INT's 1 TD


yes they where all blue collar hard workers but they where all so stars that got over looked by the pro bowl every year

haveing 4 hard workers like Tully Banta-Cain, is nice but it's going to take some talent to replace dose guys

 

[cstjohn17]

Willie McGinest 800 tackels 86 sacks 5 INT's 2TD's

ted johnson 760 tackels 11.5 sacks 1 INT

Tedy Bruschi 1067 tackels 30.5 sacks 12 INT's 4TD's

Mike Vrabel 670 tackels 57 sacks 11 INT's 1 TD


yes they where all blue collar hard workers but they where all so stars that got over looked by the pro bowl every year

haveing 4 hard workers like Tully Banta-Cain, is nice but it's going to take some talent to replace dose guys

Lets not forget that they were all great college players as well.
Bruschi- when he left college he was the NCAA record holder for sacks
Vrabel - Ohio State, all time leader in sacks (school has had plenty of top talent)
McGinest - top 5 draft pick, big time stud at USC

A round 1 or 2 draft pick and a top free agent are necessary, the current unit really sucks.

 

[mayoclinic]

We don't need the big name free agents. We need the lunch pail guys that want to come to work to do their jobs. We need the next Bruschi, the next Ted Johnson, and the next Mike Vrabel type of guys to surround Mayo with. With the talent we already have on defense, there is no reason to go out and spend a ton of money on the flashy free agents.

Not sure what you mean by "big name free agents". If you mean a Julius Peppers or a Karlos Dansby, I agree. Shawne Merriman is a big name, but is still recovering from injury and trying to get back to his previous form. Aaron Kampman is coming off an injury as well. Ray Edwards would be fine.

Not sure I see many other pass rushers out there. Do you have some specific options in mind?

I don't care about them being "big names". Hard workers with a motor who can get effective pressure are fine. That's what Derrick Burgess was ostensibly brought in to provide. But they've got to be able to get pressure.

 

[Wretch]

Lets not forget that they were all great college players as well.
Bruschi- when he left college he was the NCAA record holder for sacks
Vrabel - Ohio State, all time leader in sacks (school has had plenty of top talent)
McGinest - top 5 draft pick, big time stud at USC

A round 1 or 2 draft pick and a top free agent are necessary, the current unit really sucks.

Of those players only McGinest was a 1st round pick. Both Vrabel and Bruschi were 3rd rounders.

Johnson was a second rounder

 

[tanked_as_usual]

not sure about big name free agents, but the pats need make huge upgrades to the level of talent and physical ability at OLB.........the guys the pats have now would not make any 3-4 OLB roster spots on many other teams.....they're all a bunch of rejects

 

[mayoclinic]

Of those players only McGinest was a 1st round pick. Both Vrabel and Bruschi were 3rd rounders.

Johnson was a second rounder

You don't need all 1st round picks. Jared Allen was a 4th round ick, Jason Taylor 3rd round pick, LaMarr Woodley a 2nd rounder, Joey Porter a 3rd rounder, James Harrison a FA, Robert Mathis a 5th rounder, Shaun Phillips a 4th round pick, Elvis Dumervil a 4th round pick, Aaron Kampman a 5th rounder, Roosevelt Colvin a 4th rounder, Adalius Thomas a 6th round pick, etc.

What you have to do is consistently draft developmental guys from the 2nd-5th rounds, along with the occasional 1st rounder if you find a stud, and expect that not all of them will pan out. That's what we've done with just about every position other than LB. But Shawn Crable is the only LB drafted in the BB era earlier than the 6th round. That's just not enough effort dedicated to the position. Bruschi and TJ were inherited draft picks; Vrabel, Colvin and AD were FA signings after someone else had largely developed them. The Pats can claim some credit for Vrabes' development, but that's the only case. Otherwise, we have TBC in the 7th round, Pierre Woods as a UDFA, Jeremy Mincey in the 6th round, Justin Rogers in the 6th round, Vince Redd as a UDFA and Darrell Robertson as a UDFA. That's not a whole lot of resources devoted to a critical position.

 

[bigfandan]

I hope they will spend a couple of picks on LBs before end of 4th round. And on top of it bring in at least 2 proven FA starters.

You don't need all 1st round picks. Jared Allen was a 4th round ick, Jason Taylor 3rd round pick, LaMarr Woodley a 2nd rounder, Joey Porter a 3rd rounder, James Harrison a FA, Robert Mathis a 5th rounder, Shaun Phillips a 4th round pick, Elvis Dumervil a 4th round pick, Aaron Kampman a 5th rounder, Roosevelt Colvin a 4th rounder, Adalius Thomas a 6th round pick, etc.
....
Otherwise, we have TBC in the 7th round, Pierre Woods as a UDFA, Jeremy Mincey in the 6th round, Justin Rogers in the 6th round, Vince Redd as a UDFA and Darrell Robertson as a UDFA. That's not a whole lot of resources devoted to a critical position.

 

[Jimke]

You don't need all 1st round picks. Jared Allen was a 4th round ick, Jason Taylor 3rd round pick, LaMarr Woodley a 2nd rounder, Joey Porter a 3rd rounder, James Harrison a FA, Robert Mathis a 5th rounder, Shaun Phillips a 4th round pick, Elvis Dumervil a 4th round pick, Aaron Kampman a 5th rounder, Roosevelt Colvin a 4th rounder, Adalius Thomas a 6th round pick, etc.

What you have to do is consistently draft developmental guys from the 2nd-5th rounds, along with the occasional 1st rounder if you find a stud, and expect that not all of them will pan out. That's what we've done with just about every position other than LB. But Shawn Crable is the only LB drafted in the BB era earlier than the 6th round. That's just not enough effort dedicated to the position. Bruschi and TJ were inherited draft picks; Vrabel, Colvin and AD were FA signings after someone else had largely developed them. The Pats can claim some credit for Vrabes' development, but that's the only case. Otherwise, we have TBC in the 7th round, Pierre Woods as a UDFA, Jeremy Mincey in the 6th round, Justin Rogers in the 6th round, Vince Redd as a UDFA and Darrell Robertson as a UDFA. That's not a whole lot of resources devoted to a critical position.

The question is whether there is anyone in the Patriot's organization who
can project whether a player will be successful playing outside linebacker
in the Patriot's system? So far, the Patriots have dodged the question
by drafting players at other positions.

 

[lamafist]

You make a good point in saying that Belichick was indeed looking for LB help from the examples you stated, but as mgteich said, we could've pursued the draft a little harder. (as most of us wanted)

Although it isn't my place to question him, (BB) I too was a huge Lauranitus supporter as I closely followed his OSU career every game. Many questioned his size and speed, but it just seemed like he possessed the raw instincts needed to be a true 'football' player. We also had the option to get Manauluga or Matthews, which have both played well.

More examples of some decent FA linebackers last year were Bart Scott, Ray Lewis, Michael Boley, Jonathan Vilma, James Farrior, possibly even Crowder. We all know our personal feelings on most of these guys, but it may have improved the team.

Bottom line, I think we just got a bit unlucky with the snubbing of Jason Taylor, the injuries of Crable and McKenzie, and the somewhat poor play of Burgess. When you couple that with AD's questionable performance, and then take into acct the effect of the front 7 with the last minute trade of RDE Seymour, it's not hard to see why we're having pass rush problems.

I too, expect the position to be improved again in the off season but have no idea if it'll come from the draft, FA market, or both. As long as it remains a problem, I suspect Belichick will address it.

Laurantiis, Maualuga, and pretty much all of the FA LBs you mention would all likely be ILBs in the Pats' 3-4 defense, and not a huge part of the pass rush. Even when the Pats were going with 4-3 looks, that would move some ILBs outside, that still wouldn't make them pass rushers except on blitzes.

A real pass-rusher in the NFL needs to be able to go up against OT's one on one, and for that, you usually need some size and power to go along with speed. This is why edge-rushing OLBs in the NFL tend to weigh in closer to 260 to 290, even. It's rare to find a guy at 240 who can defeat block against a guy he's giving up 60 some-odd pounds to.

Clay Matthews has worked out for GB, but he was a pretty big risk -- he didn't have a ton starting experience in college, and there were questions of whether he'd retain his speed when he bulked up to an NFL playing weight.

Meanwhile, the Pats had some serious need of an influx of talent and athleticism in the 2ndary. In the end, it just seems like BB felt like, of the players on the board, there was better value in the DBs. Had the Taylor trade gone through, had Burgess + AD not disappointed, and had Crable stayed healthy, I don't think we're second guessing the decision so much.

Hopefully, now that Jarvis Green is looking healthy for the first time this season, his greater closing-speed than the rest of our DL will force opponents to account for him, and open things up for our dedicated rushers.

 

[SVN]

our FA signings with defensive players hasnt been stellar. they need to draft them. big name signing of FA's isnt helping.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

A real pass-rusher in the NFL needs to be able to go up against OT's one on one, and for that, you usually need some size and power to go along with speed. This is why edge-rushing OLBs in the NFL tend to weigh in closer to 260 to 290, even. It's rare to find a guy at 240 who can defeat block against a guy he's giving up 60 some-odd pounds to.

The colleges produce oodles of these type players year after year.

Why hasn't BB drafted more of these type players? What is he looking for that hardly any of these players can provide?

 

[RobertWeathers]

our FA signings with defensive players hasnt been stellar. they need to draft them. big name signing of FA's isnt helping.

Agreed w/ Bodden being the only good one since 2003. You could argue AD in 07 and part of 08, but obviously has been a pretty poor ROI at this point.

 

[satz]

A real pass-rusher in the NFL needs to be able to go up against OT's one on one, and for that, you usually need some size and power to go along with speed. This is why edge-rushing OLBs in the NFL tend to weigh in closer to 260 to 290, even. It's rare to find a guy at 240 who can defeat block against a guy he's giving up 60 some-odd pounds to.

Not really look at burgess he is listed 260 but from what some reports and zolak say he looks like hs is 220 lbs. smaller than even mathis of the colts. He makes guyton and mayo look huge.

Its not burgess is nto effective he came out of colleage and was fast for 1 yr but going against a tackle got him injured and now he is slower and smaller leading to no Sacks,

I will add this on clay mathews the packers do alot of stunts with their DE to get him in space against a tackle where his speed and atheletism wins over.

 

[lamafist]

The colleges produce oodles of these type players year after year.

Why hasn't BB drafted more of these type players? What is he looking for that hardly any of these players can provide?

Well, during the early part of the BB tenure, McGinest + Vrabel were two high-quality starters, to which he added Colvin in 2003 and Thomas in 2007, when Colvin's foot injury derailed his comeback from his pelvis injury.

It's not like BB hasn't dedicated significant resources to address the OLB position, he just hasn't done it as much through in the early to mid portion of the draft.

And don't try to tell me that trades or FA signings don't work -- Harrison, Vrabel, Moss, and Welker were/are all big-time playmakers for us, Colvin would have been if not for a freak injury, and, to a less certain extent, Morris, Bodden + McGowan all seem like good signings.

Meanwhile, during BB's tenure we've had major areas of need in various years at RB, WR, CB, and S, and a limited supply of draft picks and cap space to address them with. You can't single out one area and say "why aren't we better here?" without thinking about it in the context of what that would take away from other areas.

And looking at the overall quality of the team as a whole over the years, I think you'd have a pretty hard time making a convincing case that our front office hasn't done a pretty damn good job of putting together a consistently top-notch team.

 

[RobertWeathers]

And don't try to tell me that trades or FA signings don't work -- Harrison, Vrabel, Moss, and Welker were/are all big-time playmakers for us, Colvin would have been if not for a freak injury, and, to a less certain extent, Morris, Bodden + McGowan all seem like good signings..

Focusing back on the OLB spot, you can make a case that BB has yet to have a solid ROI on a OLB in the draft or FA.

And looking at the overall quality of the team as a whole over the years, I think you'd have a pretty hard time making a convincing case that our front office hasn't done a pretty damn good job of putting together a consistently top-notch team.

Thats not the arguement. The arguement is being successful in drafting/signing defensive players who have produced at a high-level similar to Bruschi, McGinest, Vrabel and to a lesser extent, Colvin. Quite frankly, I don't think that is possible, which is why the D is in the situation it is in as it relates to the pass rush. That talent and playmaking has not been replenished.

 

[mayoclinic]

The colleges produce oodles of these type players year after year.

Why hasn't BB drafted more of these type players? What is he looking for that hardly any of these players can provide?

Step 1: you have to draft a prospect in order for him to succeed or fail.

Step 2: you have to draft the prospects with the best chance of succeeding in your system.

Step 3: it's not a perfect process, so you have to draft more than one of them until you have an adequate pipeline.

BB has failed at all 3 steps. He hasn't even drafted enough OLB candidates to establish a pipeline, much less picked ones with high chances of succeeding.

Here's the potential 3-4 DE/OLB candidates I can think of in the BB era who were drafted between rounds 1 and 5 and who had anything near the kind of measurables that BB claims to look for:

2000: LaVar Arrington (1-3), John Abraham (1-13), Julian Peterson (1-16), Keith Bullock (1-30), John Engelberger (2-35), Clark Haggans (5-137), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (5-149)

2001: Andre Carter (1-7), Aaron Schobel (2-46), Derrick Burgess (3-63), Carlos Polk (4-112)

2002: Julius Peppers (1-2), Napoleon Harris (1-23), Kalimba Edwards (2-35), Akin Ayodele (3-89), Dennis Johnson (3-98), Alex Brown (4-104), Aaron Kampman (5-156)

2003: Terrell Suggs (1-10), Calvin Pace (1-18), Chris Kelsay (2-48), Antwan Peek (3-57), Robert Mathis (5-138)

2004: Jason Babin (1-27), Karlos Dansby (2-33), Shaun Phillips (4-98), Jared Allen (4-126)

2005: DeMarcus Ware (1-11), Shawne Merriman (1-12), David Pollack (1-17)

2006: AJ Hawk (1-5), Chad Greenway (1-17), Bobby Carpenter (1-18), Manny Lawson (1-22), Mathias Kiwanuka (1-32), Chris Gocong (3-71), Elvis Dumervil (4-126), Ray Edwards (4-127), Rob Ninkovich (5-135), Mark Anderson (5-159)

2007: Gaines Adams (1-4), Jarvis Moss (1-17), Anthony Spencer (1-26), LaMarr Woodley (2-46), Quentin Moses (3-65), Stewart Bradley (3-87), Brian Robison (4-102), Zak DeOssie (4-116), Antwan Barnes (4-134)

2008: Chris Long (1-2), Vernon Gholston (1-6), Lawrence Jackson (1-28), Quentin Groves (2-52), Shawn Crable (3-78), Bruce Davis (3-88), Cliff Avril (3-92), William Hayes (4-103)

2009: Aaron Curry (1-4), Aaron Maybin (1-11), Brian Orapko (1-12), Brian Cushing (1-15), Larry English (1-16), Robert Ayers (1-18), Clay Matthews (1-26), Everette Brown (2-43), Clint Sintim (2-45), Connor Barwin (2-46), David Veikune (2-52), Paul Kruger (2-57), Cody Brown (2-63), Matt Shaughnessy (3-71), Lawrence Sidbury (4-125)

That's 72 prospects between round 1 and 5 over a 9 year period, for an average of 8 per year. The number of potential prospects has been dramatically increasing over recent years, when our need has been greater. During that period we took exactly 1 of those guys, Shawn Crable at #78 in the 3rd round in 2008.

I count 21 potential DE/OLB conversion prospects who grade out between the 1st and 5th rounds for 2010. But it's hard to win the game if we don't even play. We're not even getting to step 1 in the OLB pipeline process.

 

[bigfandan]

Nice research,Mayo, you da man!!
To me, Billy shows a lack of conviction of his ability (or Pats organization's ability) to discern which prospects have the best chance of succeeding. Without a good read on the top of the draft board, he took the safe route, which is trade down and scrap the bottom rounds (4-7 rounds) for "value". So we have a list of players that no one cares about; when the names like Alexander, Mays, Woods, Crable, Redd, Rudd, and Mincy don't work out (and 90% of time they don't work out), no one can fault him.

Most BB fans do not recognize that by chickening out and not drafting a decent pipeline, he has already failed. That is plain and obvious by lack of LB production on the field.

Step 1: you have to draft a prospect in order for him to succeed or fail.

Step 2: you have to draft the prospects with the best chance of succeeding in your system.

Step 3: it's not a perfect process, so you have to draft more than one of them until you have an adequate pipeline.

BB has failed at all 3 steps. He hasn't even drafted enough OLB candidates to establish a pipeline, much less picked ones with high chances of succeeding.

....
I count 21 potential DE/OLB conversion prospects who grade out between the 1st and 5th rounds for 2010. But it's hard to win the game if we don't even play. We're not even getting to step 1 in the OLB pipeline process.

 

[Jimke]

Nice research,Mayo, you da man!!
To me, Billy shows a lack of conviction of his ability (or Pats organization's ability) to discern which prospects have the best chance of succeeding. Without a good read on the top of the draft board, he took the safe route, which is trade down and scrap the bottom rounds (4-7 rounds) for "value". So we have a list of players that no one cares about; when the names like Alexander, Mays, Woods, Crable, Redd, Rudd, and Mincy don't work out (and 90% of time they don't work out), no one can fault him.

Most BB fans do not recognize that by chickening out and not drafting a decent pipeline, he has already failed. That is plain and obvious by lack of LB production on the field.

Like Buddha sitting under the bodhi tree, the posters at patsfans.com

have become enlightened.