Why did the spread move so much today?

[supafly]

In regards to this news, I am absolutely shocked.

As a long time bettor (Ian would like me to remind everyone that it is for entertainment purposes only ) I expected the original line of NE-4.5 to move the other direction all the way down to approx.2 to 2.5 by gametime.

Instead it has gone the other direction.

This is what we refer to as the "sharps" bringing more money to the party and taking the NEP. They are typically regarded as the experts and the big money players.

Whether or not they are correct remains to be seen, but I personally wouldn't give 6 points in a closer game like this, despite my heart pulling for our squad.

 

[supafly]

Those Italians love to bet, and they tip well too.

Seriously, I'm not a gambler, though I've played cards and bet the occasional game, but it blows my mind to think how much legal and illegal money rides on all of these games.

As an Italian bettor I couldn't agree more

In all seriousness, you should take a look at a Google search for the amount of money that changed hands during the simple regular season game of GB/SEA earlier this year on MNF.

As we know it was one of the worst blown calls in NFL history, and likely made some of the important people stand up and take a little more notice as far as the replacement ref situation. I believe that they estimated somewhere in the hundreds of millions of dollars amount.

My online sportsbook actually gave us (those who would have won) all a free bet to try and make up for the mistake, which is incredibly rare in itself...

 

[NSPF]

Common people, the obvious answer is right in front of you!!
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/980513-good-sign-bb-chatty-kathy-mode-yesterdays-presser.html

 

[Triumph]

Doesn't that mean the houses are getting a lot of money put on Houston?

No, all the money is coming in on NE and Vegas needs to make Houston more attractive by giving them more points. If big money comes down on Houston the spread will decrease to slow betting down.

One reason for the big jump could be because of bettors like Floyd Mayweather laying tens of thousands on NE. I read where he won a lot of money earlier this season betting on the Pats.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

"Follow the money." Remember that the whole point of a "spread" is to get the betting split as close to 50--50 as possible between two alternatives.

Spreads move because one side of the bet is attracting too much $$$ support and the House is concerned about being able to cover. The sites I check state that the Spread has moved to Patriots -5 1/2 or -6 in the last 24 hours from Patriots -3 1/2 or -4. That means that the level of money being bet on the Pats to cover the lower Spread made the House uncomfortable and the spread was ticked up to get more people to take the Texans.

Why? Who knows? A number of possible explanations have been offered in the thread and one is as good as another; injuries, weather, motivation...you name it.

The bottom line is that too much money was being put on the Pats at the lower spread; 55% according to an ESPN report earlier today. When you consider that tens--if not hundreds--of millions of dollars will be bet on tonight's game, 55 cents of every dollar on the Patriots is outside an acceptable risk profile for the House.

(In fact, it's not out of the question that the ESPN article could have had something to do with this.)

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Brandon Bolden is worth 3 points!

Regards,
Chris

 

[PatsFanSince74]

In regards to this news, I am absolutely shocked.

As a long time bettor (Ian would like me to remind everyone that it is for entertainment purposes only ) I expected the original line of NE-4.5 to move the other direction all the way down to approx.2 to 2.5 by gametime.

Instead it has gone the other direction.

This is what we refer to as the "sharps" bringing more money to the party and taking the NEP. They are typically regarded as the experts and the big money players.

Whether or not they are correct remains to be seen, but I personally wouldn't give 6 points in a closer game like this, despite my heart pulling for our squad.

You're right. If I had wanted to bet on this game at all and then if I had wanted to bet "Pats," the 3 1/2 points would have been about the limit of my own risk tolerance; going from "winning by a FG+" to "winning by two FG's or a TD without the point" is a big jump...when my hard-earned cash is on the line.

But clearly, a lot of "smart money" disagreed with me. As a fan, I hope they know what they're doing!!!

 

[Ring 6]

Doesn't that mean the houses are getting a lot of money put on Houston?

Other way around. Raising the spread attracts money to the dog

 

[PatriotSeven]

Something was fishy about this spread even when it was -4.5. This makes it even more suspicious. Should have been a 1-1.5 spread tops.

I'll be watching the penalties tonight.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Vegas realized that a broken arm and being listed as inactive is not enough to stop Gronk...

 

[pdangle]

Whatever the cause, a line move this extreme (3 points) in less than 12 hours is almost unheard of except in case of an elite QB injury (with no decent backup). A factor like weather would affect both teams equally.

Conjecturing that it's a fundamental shift (and not just sharp pro money pouring in on a soft line, which I think IS the reason personally), the only possibilities that I could even imagine that could precipitate such a move would be last minute team-wide illness (flu or food sickness) or Schaub injury. It'll be interesting to see if anything comes to light.

I'm going to check out how, if any, the over/under moved to see if that illuminates anything.

 

[drs23]

Something was fishy about this spread even when it was -4.5. This makes it even more suspicious. Should have been a 1-1.5 spread tops.

I'll be watching the penalties tonight.

Excellent point that needed to be brought up.

We'll see.

GO TEXANS!

 

[pdangle]

So, along with the line move against the Texans, we also see a 2.5 point drop in the Over/Under. Now if this isn't related to coincidence or the weather, or an undervalued Pats D, it leads one to believe it was the Texans predicted offensive production that was assumed to be overvalued. And if it's a single injured player (that could cause such a move) on the O side, it could only be Schaub. But that's a lot of if's so don't quote me on it (unless I'm right of course).

Or it could be that the Pats D is ready to clamp down with a masterful BB game plan with important chess pieces Talib and Jones now in the fold. We will soon see...

BTW the line has dropped back down to -5.5. Again, a normal reaction to such a large push one way. There's no way it gets or stays at 6 for long, any higher than that and all the big money that got in at 3.5, 4 and 4.5 would start trying to middle their action.

Whatever the cause, a line move this extreme (3 points) in less than 12 hours is almost unheard of except in case of an elite QB injury (with no decent backup). A factor like weather would affect both teams equally.

Conjecturing that it's a fundamental shift (and not just sharp pro money pouring in on a soft line, which I think IS the reason personally), the only possibilities that I could even imagine that could precipitate such a move would be last minute team-wide illness (flu or food sickness) or Schaub injury. It'll be interesting to see if anything comes to light.

I'm going to check out how, if any, the over/under moved to see if that illuminates anything.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The bottom line is that too much money was being put on the Pats at the lower spread; 55% according to an ESPN report earlier today. When you consider that tens--if not hundreds--of millions of dollars will be bet on tonight's game, 55 cents of every dollar on the Patriots is outside an acceptable risk profile for the House.

Imagine what the bookies were going through in mid-2007.

I remember reading that over 90 percent of the money was going on the Pats winning. . . . and they kept covering, even as the spreads got larger and larger.

I even remember reading an article where someone with the FBI had thanked the Patriots for single-handedly putting a lot of illegal bookies out of business.

 

[ATippett56]

The spread came out last Sunday, Pats -4.5 Apparently it was off, because by Wednesday it was Pats -3, where it stayed all week. The move may have also been because of the revealed injury to Edelman.

Anyone have any guesses?

Ron Brace was deactivated for tonight's game.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Whatever the cause, a line move this extreme (3 points) in less than 12 hours is almost unheard of except in case of an elite QB injury (with no decent backup). A factor like weather would affect both teams equally.

In the first halves of their last three snow games, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 109–0.

 

[crypto]

it was the baby

 

[JoeSixPat]

NE, actually. Lines move to try and entice people to bet on the other side.

If it started Pats –3 and ended up at Pats –6, that means too many people are betting on NE.

My guess is that it's all of the reasons mentioned - but primarily that the weather will allow Brady to throw the ball, plus the fact that Mankins can bolster the line (though my money would not be on Mankins playing a full game) and Chandler's return, all of which had bettors taking the 3 points in droves.