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Why did the spread move so much today?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Dec 10, 2012.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    The spread came out last Sunday, Pats -4.5 Apparently it was off, because by Wednesday it was Pats -3, where it stayed all week. The move may have also been because of the revealed injury to Edelman.

    Right now, in real-time: Pats -6. Moving three points in less than 24 hours? This isn't the old school bookie-era, where something like that is common. In fact, the only reason a spread usually moves that much these days is because of a major injury or revelation. Anyone have any guesses?
  2. dales804

    dales804 Rookie

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    Disable Jersey

    Maybe weather? Thats the only thing really changing/being confirmed that is known now.
  3. QB12

    QB12 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Doesn't that mean the houses are getting a lot of money put on Houston?
  4. PATRIOTSFANINPA

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    #12 Jersey

    The Ravens losing yesterday increases the Pats intensity to win for the #2 seed :cool:
  5. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah, that could be it considering the Texans are a southern, dome team (at least they close the dome in bad weather).
  6. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    i believe the opposite. The spread would be raised in hopes of getting more people to take Houston, I believe.
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Rumor has it that Houston has hired Cam Cameron as their offensive coordinator, effective immediately. :D
  8. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    NE, actually. Lines move to try and entice people to bet on the other side.

    If it started Pats –3 and ended up at Pats –6, that means too many people are betting on NE.
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
  9. Patradomous

    Patradomous Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    Thats a possibility.

    They are looking for more Houston money.Lot of people who bought the Pats at -3.5 will now look to buy Houston to at -6 to win both sides of the bet.
    I can tell you one thing LV hates to get middled.
  10. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    My first question is who is not playing for the Texans?

    Where is this "spread" being posted? If it's in the Northeast, there's a preponderance of action on the Pats and they're trying to balance it out with some new money on the Texans. I bet the line in Houston is less than 6. These things can be regional. If it is in Las Vegas, then some big late money dropped on the Patriots and the casinos are scrambling not to get killed.

    If you can get the Pats giving 3 and take the Texans getting 6 you can catch a great middle if the difference is 4 or 5 points.

    What is the over/under wherever you found the Pats -6?
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
  11. PATRIOTSFANINPA

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    #12 Jersey

    The spread is officially 5.5 ..not 6

    With that being said,I can't remember the last time a team at this late in the season and with the best record in football was an underdog by more than 3 or 4 points.

    The heart says NE.....My wallet as a bettor,if I were to bet would be on Houston with the points.
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
  12. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    It and the bond market started moving overnight when word of Mario Monti's resignation and Silvio Berlusconi's campaign announcement came over the wire.
  13. PATRIOTSFANINPA

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    #12 Jersey

    Maybe Tom will have Vivian in the stands?....he's got to impress the little gal :)
  14. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Correct....
  15. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This site shows a consensus of lines, as well as several of the most popular casino's lines: Vegas Insider - NFL odds

    The reason the line has moved would be due (as mentioned above) on late money being bet on the Patriots. Perhaps that's due to the weather, Houston injuries, or a lot more Pats fans betting with their hearts than Texan fans doing so - who knows.
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
  16. pdangle

    pdangle Rookie

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    After the initial line was set, it got hit by the early betting pros and stablilized pretty quickly. This is pretty normal. Then the "ESPN crowd" bet all week, which meant many small amateur bets and small slow moves. Again pretty normal. And, I'm not surprised the line dropped with all the media hype the Texans were getting. Closer to game time, after all factors were in, right around the end of the late game, the pros hit the line with big money. Obviously they like the Patriots. They saw how the line was trending earlier in the week, so they were just waiting to bet and maximize their value. Once the dam broke so to speak, the odds boards lit up, the rest of the pros (and then their followers) realized speed was of the essence, and they too unloaded on the Pats. This caused the massive cascading effect we witnessed today. In any case, good news for the Pats. The pros like em' the ESPN crowd doesn't. I'm just pissed I didn't bet yesterday :D
  17. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

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    #75 Jersey

    Those Italians love to bet, and they tip well too.

    Seriously, I'm not a gambler, though I've played cards and bet the occasional game, but it blows my mind to think how much legal and illegal money rides on all of these games.
  18. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    The Fiscal Cliff is nothing compared to the economic ramifications of an overturned touchdown tonight!
  19. TriplecHamp

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    #24 Jersey

    Its the opposite, money is pouring in on the Pats.
  20. Thunderkyss

    Thunderkyss Rookie

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    I bet Jerry Jones & Bud Adams wanted to get in on the action.
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