Who's Worth Their 2015 Compensation?

[Miguel]

Please note that $4.5 million of Mayo's $6.25 million is guaranteed for injury. Until he passes a physical, that injury guarantee is in effect.

 

[ausbacker]

Revis $20M - down to $16M with a long term extension
Mayo $7.8M - down to $5M as injuries should push this to an incentive based contract.
Wilfork $7.5M - stay. He's been worth every penny.
Solder $7.4M - stay. Form has improved over the season.
Browner $4.5M - stay. Browner is playing to a high level and affords the team flexibility.
Amendola $4.4M - down to $2M or it's see you later. Return production isn't WR production.
Arrington $3.0M stay. It would appear that Arrington is great value at this price.

 

[Miguel]

I'm pretty sure that mgteich means by compensation cash intake

 

[resdubwhite]

none of them. cut all of the salaries *


* week 4 opinion.

 

[mgteich]

I'm pretty sure that mgteich means by compensation cash intake

When I talk about compensation, I am talking about new money: salary, workout bonus, weight bonus, roster bonus and LTBE bonuses. Dead money is gone. The only choice we have is when to account for it (by declaring a player a June 1 cut, we spread dead money over two years).

My question is always about avoidable money; that is, new money.

 

[resdubwhite]

seriously though. i think there's lots of tough choices to be made this year more so than most.

would be stunned if Someone like Mayo were cut/traded but there are other needs that have to be attended to.

Getting any cap relief for the murderer would be most welcome.

 

[mgteich]

Revis $20M - down to $16M with a long term extension

The cap savings for Revis would be $13M if Revis were to accept a $14M AAV 3 year contract. Even increasing the contract to $16M a year wouldn't change the 2014 cap hit (simply add $3M to the 2016 and 2017 salaries).

The cap hit for Revis is $25M if we pick up his option of paying him $20M for 2015. The dead money is equal to $5M (and is therefore irrelevant).

So, it is right to speak of $20M as you do. Consider a contract with $18M of bonus and salaries of $1M, $9M and $14M. This contract is equal to $14M a year. The 2014 cap hit is $7M ($1M plus $18m/3).

BEFORE - $25M cap hit ($20M plus $5M dead money)
AFTER - $12M cap hit ($1M plus $6M plus $5M)
CAP SAVINGS = 13 MILLION rather than the 4 that you imply by having him go from $20M to $16M.
============
BOTTOM LINE
IMHO, we will not pay Revis $20M. So, since the cap savings is $12M even if the new contracts has an AAV of $16M, I would think that when we look at 2015, we should expect a cap savings of at least $13M, $20M if we can't reach a deal with Revis.

 

[Froob]

They might let McCourty walk if they think the other two guys from Rutgers can do his job.
Maybe revis won't insist on breaking the bank?

Dmac isn't going anywhere. Hes exactly the kind of consistent and mature player we extend. There's no reason to think Harmon (...or Ryan?) could do his job.

 

[ausbacker]

The cap savings for Revis would be $12M if Revis were to accept a $14M AAV 3 year contract. Even increasing the contract to $16M a year wouldn't change the 2014 cap hit (simply add $3M to the 2016 and 2017 salaries).

The cap hit for Revis is $25M if we pick up his option of paying him $20M for 2015. The dead money is equal to $5M (and is therefore irrelevant).

So, it is right to speak of $20M as you do. Consider a contract with $18M of bonus and salaries of $1M, $9M and $14M. This contract is equal to $14M a year. The 2014 cap hit is $7M ($1M plus $18m/3).

BEFORE - $25M cap hit ($20M plus $5M dead money)
AFTER - $12M cap hit ($1M plus $6M plus $5M)
CAP SAVINGS = TWELVE MILLION rather than the 4 that you imply by having him go from $20M to $16M.

Why can't I just speak numbers and let Miguel do all the dirty work?

 

[mgteich]

Why can't I just speak numbers and let Miguel do all the dirty work?

We can. There's just a lot of difference between a savings of $4M and a savings of $13M (my edited total).

 

[mgteich]

Please note that $4.5 million of Mayo's $6.25 million is guaranteed for injury. Until he passes a physical, that injury guarantee is in effect.

Oops!

Thanks for the input. This contract clause make it much more likely that Mayo stays. In order to cut him, he would need to be deemed healthy. I would think that both the team doctor's and his would agree. I think that it is very likely that Mayo will be considered injured well into the off-season. Even if Mayo were on the PUP list, he would be worth the $1.75M of new money.

 

[Froob]

Can't imagine Dola gets a penny over vet minimum. hopefully he'll be a training camp cut because we get some nice depth, unless he magically reverts to at least 2013 form. A Jabar Gaffney type player would be just what the doctor ordered.

 

[jsull87]

If these numbrs are correct then I personally think Amendola and Arrington are players who could be considered on the hot seat.

Revis will have to sign an extension at about $14m per year or he will be gone unfortunately. but that will free up a ton of money. $6m+

Arrington due to - Ryan, Dennard and Butler all playing at a high (enough) level to maybe make us want to keep the $3m more.
Amendola because he simply hasn't lived up to his contract billing.

I think the key to this situation is what happens with Revis.

 

[jsull87]

If these numbrs are correct then I personally think Amendola and Arrington are players who could be considered on the hot seat.

Revis will have to sign an extension at about $14m per year or he will be gone unfortunately. but that will free up a ton of money. $6m+

Arrington due to - Ryan, Dennard and Butler all playing at a high (enough) level to maybe make us want to keep the $3m more.
Amendola because he simply hasn't lived up to his contract billing.

I think the key to this situation is what happens with Revis.

I forgot to add that it's because with the 13-20M we save with him we can legitimately go out and sign:
McCourty, Branch, Ayres, Cassilas, Chung et al or any other FA we might deem more important.

We reach that agreement with Revis and then make the decision to sign those players listed. We then are going into 2015 with an in tact nucleas of a damn good defense. With Mayo to return to it.

 

[kennyb]

Dmac isn't going anywhere. Hes exactly the kind of consistent and mature player we extend. There's no reason to think Harmon (...or Ryan?) could do his job.

I think it depends on price. Everyone is overpriced at some figure.

 

[Marinlik]

The cap savings for Revis would be $13M if Revis were to accept a $14M AAV 3 year contract. Even increasing the contract to $16M a year wouldn't change the 2014 cap hit (simply add $3M to the 2016 and 2017 salaries).

The cap hit for Revis is $25M if we pick up his option of paying him $20M for 2015. The dead money is equal to $5M (and is therefore irrelevant).

So, it is right to speak of $20M as you do. Consider a contract with $18M of bonus and salaries of $1M, $9M and $14M. This contract is equal to $14M a year. The 2014 cap hit is $7M ($1M plus $18m/3).

BEFORE - $25M cap hit ($20M plus $5M dead money)
AFTER - $12M cap hit ($1M plus $6M plus $5M)
CAP SAVINGS = 13 MILLION rather than the 4 that you imply by having him go from $20M to $16M.
============
BOTTOM LINE
IMHO, we will not pay Revis $20M. So, since the cap savings is $12M even if the new contracts has an AAV of $16M, I would think that when we look at 2015, we should expect a cap savings of at least $13M, $20M if we can't reach a deal with Revis.

I'd rather see us sign him to a real 3 year contract instead of a 2 year contract spread over 3 years. I don't think Revis will take some kind of "winning team discount" as some claim, as there probably are winning teams willing to pay him big bucks. But I could see him want a more realistic 3 year $14M AAV contract as it will be harder for him to get a large contract as he gets older.

 

[mgteich]

I'd rather see us sign him to a real 3 year contract instead of a 2 year contract spread over 3 years. I don't think Revis will take some kind of "winning team discount" as some claim, as there probably are winning teams willing to pay him big bucks. But I could see him want a more realistic 3 year $14M AAV contract as it will be harder for him to get a large contract as he gets older.

Miguel has suggested $14M AAV as reasonable. I noted above that even if we give him a bit more, the 2015 cap would not be affected; there would be a $13M cap savings under the structure that I have given.

 

[Marinlik]

Miguel has suggested $14M AAV as reasonable. I noted above that even if we give him a bit more, the 2015 cap would not be affected; there would be a $13M cap savings under the structure that I have given.

I agree that $14M AAV is reasonable. But I see the contract you suggested as a 2 year contract with a cap hit stretched over 3 years because of that last year $20M cap hit. Still $14M AAV for 2 years though. But I'd much rather see him sign a 3 year contract with us where the last year is realistic and not just a cap stretcher.