Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Patters, Oct 27, 2012.
I think it's time for some prognosticating!
This election is all about the economy. Obama has failed, people see that and he will be a one-term president. On top of that, Benghazi-gate is finishing off Obama's chances as well. The cover up and lies are not helping his campaign!
I will take bets from anyone who thinks Romney will win the EC, we can escrow with whoever you want that you find trustworthy. Anything up to $1k.
Put your money where your mouth is, if you are so confident in Romney winning then I'm basically offering you free money.
What you fail to realize is that most people in this country don't know where Libya is, where Benghazi is, or either side of the controversy.
At best they see a he said this he said that.
Issues like this don't matter. It's issues that define character that do - swift boat veterans tarnished Kerry, not some obscure decision that may or may not have happened.
Conversely, Romney's 47% painted his character.
These are the issues that matter to your average American voter.
Anyone that wanted to bet on Romney would be wise to take odds with an offshore sportsbook instead of a straight up bet against you.
I think Obama will win. I dont think we will ever have a one term President. It takes too long to actually get anything done that you must give the President (no matter who it is) 8 years. In these days of hatred and Republicans actually stating thier agenda of making sure they are not partisan, there is no way to get anything done. I will also expect that the same thing will happen if we get a Republican President...the Dems will do everything in there power to block progress.
I would like to see everyone work together to get America back to where it was...after all, that is what politicians are sworn to do. I think they have forgotten that.
ya, but FOX news said...
We went from 10 trillion in debt to 16 trillion in debt. The U-6 unemployment has been around 14.7% for the past 4 years. The GDP growth before Obama took office was at 3.3% and was called a recession by the media. GDP growth is now at 1.3% growth, what is that a depression? A budget has not been passed in 4 years. Obama has a worst record than Jimmy Carter and did Jimmy Carter get re-elected? NO!! I am calling a LANDSLIDE WIN for ROMNEY. Romney will win the Electoral College with 330 Electoral Votes!! Get used to saying President Romney!
romney wins popular but loses electoral
that's what i'm thinking
i honestly wouldn't be surprised if romney won it all though either by shenanigans or just by legitimately winning it
he's a panderer and alot of people like to be told their trees are just the right height
those all have Obama as a favorite though, any sportsbook that is that inaccurate with their lines can't possibly be trustworthy
Uh, that's the point I'm making (duh). If they have Obama as the favorite, then anyone who wants to wager on Romney would be wise to go through them and get $1.50 back for every $1 wagered, instead of an even money bet against you.
could you explain it again?
Romney will win the popular vote by 5-7% and win over 300 EV's as I predicted back in July.
I will go further and say that because of the landslide for the R's they will pick up 5-8 Senate seats.
Who's going to win? Hard to say, but I can tell you who will lose...
Have you even looked at the map lol
Yes I have also looked at the internals of all the polls and have a very good sense of what they are really saying.
so the "internals" of all the polls tell you that what is really going on is that Romney is winning every single swing state?
Could you point me to an example of an internal in a credible state poll that leads you to think Romney will win despite the opposite conclusion of the poll?
You must both be 1) a statistical savant to have one upped all the pollsters and modelers in their erroneous conclusions across the board, 2) have a lot of time on your hands and 3) about to become filthy rich exploiting all the clearly inefficient markets available to you. Congratulations sir.
Just read the same post again, but slower this time.
Again with the U6 unemployment. Oh no, it's been 14.7%... but in the trough of the recession it was north of 20. Obama fixed the mess the pubbies got us into, and the complaint is "He didn't fix it fast enough! Especially when we did everything we could to sabotage the recovery!"
Between the filibuster in the first 2 years to the straight up obstructionism since we had the collective bad judgment to vote in a pubbie House, the GOP has done everything it can in pursuit of its objective, to win in 2012 -- including tanking the chances of the economy to recover as best they could.
I think, and I hope, that we as a nation have the wisdom to "stay the course," as it was always put when there was a pubbie president. This time it's a good idea.
If Obama would guarantee no new economic stimulus', maybe I'd vote for him....but neither one of us will do either of the above.
We don't do cash bets on this site Tyrone.
You're kinda emotional about this, aren't you Tyrone?
I won't be angry no matter who wins....how about you Tyrone?
I wouldn't be angry if Barack Hussein Obama won, but it would be disappointing to know that, in spite of the horrible job he's doing, enough people still voted for him to get him elected. I have more faith in our citizens than that.
I didn't know you were the spokesman for everyone on the site. I'll make sure to run things by you first.
I don't know where you get "emotional" from in my post, but I suppose when you can't combat the substance of it that's the kind of thing you reach for.
I find it hard to believe that someone who resides almost entirely in a political forum of a football site doesn't care who wins the presidential election, but if that's true then I'm sorry you are so apathetic.
Why thank you Tyrone!
I know you can't wager any cash bets on this board...it's against policy. So I don't need to be anyone's spokesperson.
I'm an independent who voted for Barak last time, but not this time.
My honest opinion on Barak and Mitt is that neither are presidential material. So what's really sad to me is the choices Americans have for this election...2 sucky candidates.
Well in the swing states as well as nationally Romney is up by ~3% nationally in the crossover vote, and 10% + among indies, in Ohio for example if Romney is up 13% among independents across 5 different polls from the last week.
Unless the turnout is +7% D in Ohio Romney wins.
Which "Swing State" is Obama over 50% in ? Incumbents under 50% don't tend to fare well with late breaking voters.
Obama's approval rating has been falling like a rock over the past week, as per Gallup another sign of his impending doom, his personal popularity was keeping him afloat that is now crumbling:
Fav UnFav Gap
10/21-23/2012 53 42 11
10/22-24/2012 51 44 7
10/23-25/2012 48 47 1
10/24-26/2012 46 49 -3
The stench of death?
Not sure but this is a real free fall.
Hey 13, the Mrs. posted some of your previous predictions... where did that post go?
It was deleted for being off topic, she didn't issue any prediction (the subject of the thread) and was just baiting the other poster (me). She didn't even address the specifics of my post.
Wat. What does "in the swing states as well as nationally" mean? All you did here was cherry pick the outlier Gallup poll. Up 3% in the crossover vote? lol?
It's almost like polls should have a category for "likely voters"
Nice breakdown of the internals though, I especially like your interesting math, where you basically assert that independents are a large enough group to mean that a 13% gap = 7% D, I'd love to see your work on that one. I don't think you quite understand Party ID.
over 50% what? job approval? All you are doing is cherry picking here to confirm your bias.
Gallup had Bush at 48% job approval at the end of october in 2004, so maybe try looking outside the blogosphere for your talking points.
Presidential Approval Ratings -- George W. Bush
no, she pointed out your lack of credibility when making outlandish predictions. It goes to the heart of whether someone should take you seriously or not. Way to show your true colors though.
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