Who to select #1 overall

[juxtapoz15]

I'm selecting #1 overal in a 12 man league. The idea usually is to select the #1 overall RB. Through the past couple of years I've begun to unsubscribe from that philosophy. First off most of your marquee RBs are usually hurt by the time the league playoffs roll around and secondly the top QBs (Brady, Brees, Rodgers) are scoring a ton more points then top RBs (Foster, McCoy, Rice). Also, we use Yahoo default scoring, except that a QB gets 6 points per TD throw compared to the default 4.

So last year this is how total scoring shook out.

QB
Rodgers-489
Brees-487
Brady-451

RB
Rice-333
McCoy-294
Foster-281

So what are your guys opinions, do you usually take the QB or RB first? I'm afraid if I don't pick up a QB at one (Rodgers probably) in the first that there won't be a decent one remaining when I pick again at #24 and #25.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Brady or Rodgers, whichever makes you happier in the pants.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Hard to argue against picking the top point scorers. Take a QB and then be ready to get creative to fill RB slots - takes a fair bit of research and gut feeling. IE you should definitely spend a pick (or two) on some of the premier backups like Ben Tate, maybe Peyton Hillis... that type of thing. Lots of good RB's end up coming off the waiver wire too, at least in the league I've played in (ie Demarco Murray).

 

[jmt57]

For a very long time I have been an advocate of "value based drafting" (google those words for more info).

Essentially each player has a value based on his projected points as compared to the projected points of the last starter at the same position in your league.

For simplicity let's say you play in a 3-team league with just two positions and use the numbers from the original post. Rodgers would have a value of 38 points (489 minus 451), Brees would be 36 and Brady zero. At RB Rice would be 52 (389-281), McCoy 13 and Foster zero.

In this mini-scenario Rice (52) is more valuable than Rodgers (38), followed by Brees and then McCoy.

Now try it out to see how it works. If you draft Rice, no matter who you have at QB and who the other teams draft you end up with more points (as long as you end up with one of those three QBs). Therefore if you draft Rice you win, no matter what - making him more valuable than any of the quarterbacks, even though he scores fewer points.


Now I don't know if Rice does or does not have the best value in your twelve team league, but the point is that you should probably look beyond simply the total number of points scored. It's the same principal that applies to drafting kickers late (little difference between the best and worst). It has worked very well for me over the years (I have won way more than my fair share of championships, and had only one losing season in any league since the second year I played FF - which was probably about 12 years ago).