Who should have the Patriots taken at 48 instead of Wilson

[Snake Eyes]

I honestly don't think so. He wasn't saying Belichick was infallible; that's obviously nonsense, we all know plenty of mistakes to point to. But it's just as obvious that fallibility is inevitable in the guesswork that is the draft.

So my understanding of what he said was that if he had to have somebody to make a draft pick for the Patriots he'd want BB to be the one to do it, and that any of us who think that substituting our own judgment would produce better rosters overall, over time, are kidding ourselves.

Given that the Patriots just went to the Superbowl with 95% roster turnover from their first championship team, that seems like a pretty fair statement.

If that's what he meant, you said it a lot better, have you ever considered being a writer?

 

[DaBruinz]

No, they don't. But if you believe they are going to a hybrid defense with much more fluidity and movement between positions, then David would be a fit. And as Nick Caserio has noted, the Pats spent 65-70% of their time in sub packages in 2011. I think a player who would be "great" by your admission in 65-70% on the defensive snaps would be worth considering in the second round.

Again, we're just going to disagree (hopefully respectfully) on this one.

Even in the "hybrid" defense, the Pats were lining up with 4 LBers with one of the OLBs putting his hand down at some point.

Also, I didn't say the pick of Hightower made David obsolete. I said that the addition of Hightower made it so David wasn't going to be drafted by them. Also, the Pats aren't going to put Mayo or Hightower on the bench in Sub-packages. Hightower was brought in so that, in the sub-packages, it allows the Pats to rush the passer from any of the 4 LBer positions. It's what made the Pats 3-4 so deadly on the pass rush in 2003 and 2004. Their 4 starting LBers could all rush the passer and the QB didn't know where the rush would be coming from. David doesn't offer that. David is a pure coverage guy in sub-packages.

David reminds me of former TB LB Derrick Brooks. Brooks excelled in the Tampa-2. He's had struggled in a 2-Gap 3-4 that the Pats run.

 

[Off The Grid]

Psst!!

The "34" has plummeted to the bottom of the Depth Chart, my friend!!

Should I infer, then, that you don't believe that Reyes could effectively play the role of an athletic 3-4 DE and 4-3 DT for the NEP?

Why would you infer that, Brother Stone??

My perception of where the Patriots Defense is headed ~ and it's just my opinion, after all!! ~ has nothing to do with my perception of how Reyes would do in our System, or any other.

But, personally, I wasn't very high on the kid.

I'll leave it at that: I hate to be a Binkie Basher!!

 

[mayoclinic]

Personally, I wasn't very high on the kid.

I'll leave it at that: I hate to be a Binkie Basher!!

I personally wasn't high on Reyes either. But a lot of people were. We all have our player preferences.

 

[dryheat44]

So we're delusional if we disagree with BB? Sorry, BB is very fallable, and there's nothing wrong with recognizing that.

No, he's saying that thinking that we're able to make more informed judgements that BB, armed with YouTube highlights, pro day results, The opinions of the Kipers, Buntings, and McShays of the world, and maybe 2-5 games, we're delusional.

And he's right. Listen, Wilson would not have been my choice based on the information I had at hand What I did not have at hand was:

1) Private workout with prospect
2) Interview with prospect
3) Interviews with coaching staff, teammates, opposing coaches, etc
4) School records
5) Police records
6) Medical records
7) Current medical examination
8) Film session Q&A with the prospect
9) Knowledge of what BB wants to do in 2012, from a schematic standpoint
10) Knowledge of which players from the roster in 2011 he considers keepers and which he plans on chucking
11) Knowledge of any discussions of trades and free agency signings of veteran players
12) All-11 tape of every game the player played in college, and several in high school -- which you can't scout DBs without

It is beyond delusional to think that we're right and Belichick's wrong. Ever.

 

[dryheat44]

I don't like this post.....


I LOVE this post; not that it will do anything to enlighten the truly delusional who think they are better talent evaluators/drafters than those who actually do it for a living, as evidenced by some of the posts in this thread.

Disagreeing and discussing is one thing, presenting your disagreement as fact that BB doesn't know what he is doing is arrogant beyond belief.

I remember reading on line after the Vollmer pick that "BB should be locked out of the draft room". That tenor of that post is reminiscent to some of the commentary that I'm reading here.

For anyone reading this, if you had the power to overrule BB at the time the picks were made, and you would willingly exercise that power, then you are the kind of poster I am referring to.

And there's the problem in a nutshell -- We grade Belichick's draft based on how it matches up with whom (insert your favorite internet Draft Expert here) lays out his draft. Even the guys I really respect -- Rang and Mayock, aren't nearly as tuned in as the most successful NFL GMs. Mayock never worked out a prospect. Rang never sat with one and watched game film asking what the prospect was seeing every play. Mayock doesn't know that the (warning -- completely fictional scenario) Texans are planning on cutting 3/4 or their defensive backs on the roster, have been talking to free agent X's agent on the parameters of a deal, and have discussed a trade with Cleveland.

If Belichick, Newsome, Colbert, Reese, Heckert, Loomis, Turner, or whomever you think is a good GM published their draft boards and/or mock drafts, we'd all be stunned.

Whether you want to admit it or not, the reason we think that Peter Konz and Stephon Gilmore are first round talents is because the Kipers tell us they are.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It is beyond delusional to think that we're right and Belichick's wrong. Ever.

I agreed with everything you said up until this point.

Here's how I look at it: BB is going to choose the players that he feels has the greatest chance of improving the team. That doesn't mean he's going to be perfect (obviously, he's not), but in general the better question is "Why did he feel that [X] was the best choice?"

[As I've said before, the only recent pick that I can't at least find some justification for is taking Ron Brace over Connor Barwin.]

 

[Snake Eyes]

No, he's saying that thinking that we're able to make more informed judgements that BB, armed with YouTube highlights, pro day results, The opinions of the Kipers, Buntings, and McShays of the world, and maybe 2-5 games, we're delusional.

And he's right. Listen, Wilson would not have been my choice based on the information I had at hand What I did not have at hand was:

1) Private workout with prospect
2) Interview with prospect
3) Interviews with coaching staff, teammates, opposing coaches, etc
4) School records
5) Police records
6) Medical records
7) Current medical examination
8) Film session Q&A with the prospect
9) Knowledge of what BB wants to do in 2012, from a schematic standpoint
10) Knowledge of which players from the roster in 2011 he considers keepers and which he plans on chucking
11) Knowledge of any discussions of trades and free agency signings of veteran players
12) All-11 tape of every game the player played in college, and several in high school -- which you can't scout DBs without

It is beyond delusional to think that we're right and Belichick's wrong. Ever.

"I LOVE this post; not that it will do anything to enlighten the truly delusional who think they are better talent evaluators/drafters than those who actually do it for a living, as evidenced by some of the posts in this thread.

For anyone reading this, if you had the power to overrule BB at the time the picks were made, and you would willingly exercise that power, then you are the kind of poster I am referring to"

No, this is what he said, whether your interpretation is what he meant is something different.

As for this, "It is beyond delusional to think that we're right and Belichick's wrong. Ever", I couldnt disagree more. Having information is one thing, using it well is another.

 

[dryheat44]

I agreed with everything you said up until this point.

Here's how I look at it: BB is going to choose the players that he feels has the greatest chance of improving the team. That doesn't mean he's going to be perfect (obviously, he's not), but in general the better question is "Why did he feel that [X] was the best choice?"

[As I've said before, the only recent pick that I can't at least find some justification for is taking Ron Brace over Connor Barwin.]

Maybe I could have phrased that better. It's not that Belichick can't make mistakes. He can, and he has. Many.

It's that he's in the best possible position to make the decision.

Maybe on occasion I'm right and he's wrong. In those cases, though, it's a happy co-incidence.

 

[dryheat44]

As for this, "It is beyond delusional to think that we're right and Belichick's wrong. Ever", I couldnt disagree more. Having information is one thing, using it well is another.

Unless you believe that Belichick's MO is to sabotage the Pats from within, wouldn't you believe that he's using the information he has to the best extent possible? For my part, I believe that he wants to win Super Bowls, and I do not believe he's incompetent.

Final word -- It's not only delusional, but arrogant, to think that you could do better, based on absolutely ZERO evidence of such.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Unless you believe that Belichick's MO is to sabotage the Pats from within, wouldn't you believe that he's using the information he has to the best extent possible? For my part, I believe that he wants to win Super Bowls, and I do not believe he's incompetent.

Final word -- It's not only delusional, but arrogant, to think that you could do better, based on absolutely ZERO evidence of such.

Have you ever made a bad decision, even if you wanted to make a good one?

As far as having no evidence, I wanted Barwin, nuff said!

Also, do you think it's a bit arrogant and dismissive to assert that us amateurs cannot reach a conclusion that is better than a professional?

 

[mayoclinic]

It's not only delusional, but arrogant, to think that you could do better, based on absolutely ZERO evidence of such.

I think that the majority of people would agree on some common ground:

1. BB has access to a body of information, expertise, and team-specific knowledge that is not available to the professional draftniks, much less the general public.

2. It would be presumptuous of someone without access to those resources to think that they could do a better job than the Pats, who are consistently among the best drafting teams in the business.

3. To say that BB is an idiot because he picked a player we don't like or the media didn't project is arrogant and often precipitous. Some of our most scorned picks have gone on to become studs, while some of our favorites have gone on to become duds. And we - and most of the media - are all back seat drivers who have never actually had to make a pick.

4. Despite all of that information, expertise and knowledge, even the best in the business make "mistakes" - sometimes whoppers. I'm sure BB would at least privately acknowledge that - that's partly why BB has chosen to diversify in his approach to the draft over the past few years. Eric DeCosta, recently promoted to assistant GM of the Ravens, recently noted that having more draft picks is useful because even for the best drafting teams the draft is mostly luck.

5. Given that, it's not presumptuous to disagree or question with an individual pick. But that disagreement should probably be tempered by the overall success record of the organization.

 

[Off The Grid]

I SWEAR: I'd rather read 10 PAGES of garbage from the morons who think that Mad Bill's an idiot, just because he didn't pick every player in THEIR Mocks...than one PARAGRAPH of genuflecting SEWAGE from SLUGS who are SO incapable of thinking for themselves that they jealously and bitterly LASH OUT at those of us who DO.

Fact ~ Every GM in the NFL knows MORE than we do. No kidding.

Fact ~ "Just Because you know more...doesn't mean you know better." ~ Fanatical Yankee.

Fact ~ Bill The Mad (Genius) has better judgment than any GM in the GALAXY.

Fact ~ Bill The Mad (Geniuis) is human.

Fact ~ Bill The Mad (Genius) makes SMART moves that go bad.

Fact ~ Smart moves that go bad are NOT "Mistakes."

Fact ~ A MISTAKE...as an Error in Judgement.

Fact ~ Even Bill The Mad (Genius) MAKES...MISTAKES. Derrik Burgess says "Hi."

Fact ~ Update: Bill The Mad (Genius) is STILL The Best.

Fact ~ Update: Bill The Mad (Genius) is STILL human.

Fact ~ Fans ARE allowed to voice their disagreement with their GM or Coach's decisions.

Fact ~ Doing so does NOT make them whiny chicken feces ~ though many'f them ARE.

Fact ~ Those who lack the Intelligence and Courage to Think for Themselves are always the first to attack Independent Thinkers.

 

[dryheat44]

Have you ever made a bad decision, even if you wanted to make a good one?

As far as having no evidence, I wanted Barwin, nuff said!

Also, do you think it's a bit arrogant and dismissive to assert that us amateurs cannot reach a conclusion that is better than a professional?

Well my responses are somewhat related. If I understand you correctly, you're claiming, in this one specific case, that the Patriots would have been better off with you making the selection than Belichick, because you would have drafted Barwin. My answer is maybe the Pats would have been better off drafting a workout warrior on a projection early in the second round and maybe not, but unless you are a professional scout, you made that pick based on the scouting combine and Rob Rang's write up about intangibles. Mike Mamula had a much better resume, yet people kill the Eagles 20 years later for the pick. Thus far in their careers, you look to be right. Congrats.

Now, who would you have drafted instead of Vollmer? Gronkowski? Hernandez? Branch? Seymour? Brady?

Funny that nobody beats their chest (except Borges) that they would have drafted David Terrell over Seymour or Player X over Mankins.

If any GM made the right decision all the time, he would have more Super Bowl rings than fingers.

 

[bagwell368]

I was thinking that Peter Konz would have been solid choice. Dominant centers are hard to find and he could also play guard. I guess Koppen must be doing well...

The worst Center draft in years. BB and co. did their due diligence, and made their pick. He was a fast riser who can do a number of things.

Pretty much when Eddie Munster (Mel) doesn't like a Pats pick after round 1, I figure it's a good thing (he went mental on Vollmer's choice).

 

[mayoclinic]

Well my responses are somewhat related. If I understand you correctly, you're claiming, in this one specific case, that the Patriots would have been better off with you making the selection than Belichick, because you would have drafted Barwin. My answer is maybe the Pats would have been better off drafting a workout warrior on a projection early in the second round and maybe not, but unless you are a professional scout, you made that pick based on the scouting combine and Rob Rang's write up about intangibles. Mike Mamula had a much better resume, yet people kill the Eagles 20 years later for the pick. Thus far in their careers, you look to be right. Congrats.

Now, who would you have drafted instead of Vollmer? Gronkowski? Hernandez? Branch? Seymour? Brady?

Funny that nobody beats their chest (except Borges) that they would have drafted David Terrell over Seymour or Player X over Mankins.

If any GM made the right decision all the time, he would have more Super Bowl rings than fingers.

I would have drafted Barwin over Brace any day. And I would have drafted Will Beatty over Sebastian Vollmer.

All in all, I'm content to leave things to BB. I don't agree with all his choices and I feel free to respectfully disagree, but I never forget that he knows infinitely more than I do. And he still makes mistakes.

But, if we're unhappy with BB running our draft, I hear Matt Millen might be available. :bricks:

 

[Snake Eyes]

Well my responses are somewhat related. If I understand you correctly, you're claiming, in this one specific case, that the Patriots would have been better off with you making the selection than Belichick, because you would have drafted Barwin. My answer is maybe the Pats would have been better off drafting a workout warrior on a projection early in the second round and maybe not, but unless you are a professional scout, you made that pick based on the scouting combine and Rob Rang's write up about intangibles. Mike Mamula had a much better resume, yet people kill the Eagles 20 years later for the pick. Thus far in their careers, you look to be right. Congrats.

Now, who would you have drafted instead of Vollmer? Gronkowski? Hernandez? Branch? Seymour? Brady?

Funny that nobody beats their chest (except Borges) that they would have drafted David Terrell over Seymour or Player X over Mankins.

If any GM made the right decision all the time, he would have more Super Bowl rings than fingers.

The question was 'Who should have the Patriots taken at 48 instead of Wilson', and by answering it I apparently made the claim that I'm a better GM than BB, which I never stated. I wanted Barwin, and I certainly didnt have any interest in Wilson at 48 and thought that pick could have been better spent, no more, no less.

 

[The Gr8est]

The question was 'Who should have the Patriots taken at 48 instead of Wilson', and by answering it I apparently made the claim that I'm a better GM than BB, which I never stated. I wanted Barwin, and I certainly didnt have any interest in Wilson at 48 and thought that pick could have been better spent, no more, no less.

The question 'Who should have the Patriots taken at 48 instead of Wilson', is by itself, a statement that BB made a mistake picking Wilson. I think asking that question is arrogant, and suggests that the OP knows better than BB.

Maybe I am taking the words too literally, but I would have no problem with "Who would you have preferred that BB take at 48 instead of Wilson"? That is more of a topic for discussion, than an indictment, which is how I took the OP and how I think it was meant.

Now in 3 years if Wilson fails to impress, then it would be fair to reconsider the question.

Is someone here aware of something that, had BB been privy to this same knowledge, would have caused BB to make a different selection?

 

[The Gr8est]

I agree that there is a middle ground, and if I'm misinterpreting what he's saying than I'll back off, but he did say that 'if we had the power to override BB and did so, that we're the delusional poster he was previously referring to'. But I also might be wrong, so I'll withhyold judgment for now

I AM saying there is a middle ground. BB is certainly NOT infallible, and I hold my breath when he makes his picks, hoping it's someone who I like and that the "experts" agree is a gr8 pick. It gives me a warm, fuzzy feeling when he picks guys like that, and I know that we'll be getting kudos from the media for our gr8 draft, but that is just instant gratification, and I know that BB, and other professionals know far more than we do.

How many people were stunned at the Bruce Irvin pick? Based on reports that have since leaked out it wasn't quite the reach that the mediots suggested, as there were, apparently, other teams who had him rated as highly.

Likewise people who say Tavon Wilson was a reach who would have been available later might want to offer something more substantial than the prevailing mediot/draftnik wisdom.

When BB picks Logan Mankins in the 1st, Terrell Wheatley, Ron Brace, Sebastien Vollmer and Tavon Wilson in the 2nd....well, those picks don't resonate with me as well as others might.

I also loved the picks of Brandon Meriwether and Darius Butler by the way.

The point is though, that at the end of day, even if I am not enthralled at the picks, I will defer to someone with the track record of BB, and wouldn't dream of overruling a BB pick if I had the power. I am in no way qualified to do that, and just because I can offer anecdotal evidence that a player that I liked who BB passed on, turned out better than the player BB took, does not make me more capable than BB to make the picks.

 

[Snake Eyes]

The question 'Who should have the Patriots taken at 48 instead of Wilson', is by itself, a statement that BB made a mistake picking Wilson. I think asking that question is arrogant, and suggests that the OP knows better than BB

No, it means that many of us have our own opinions and enjoy discussing them. I'm sorry if that threatens or bothers you.

Maybe I am taking the words too literally, but I would have no problem with "Who would you have preferred that BB take at 48 instead of Wilson"? That is more of a topic for discussion, than an indictment, which is how I took the OP and how I think it was meant.

Now in 3 years if Wilson fails to impress, then it would be fair to reconsider the question.

Is someone here aware of something that, had BB been privy to this same knowledge, would have caused BB to make a different selection?

Here's the real question, if those of us that bashed the Wilson pick are proven right, will you give proper credit? Just because someone has a ton of info doesnt mean they always use that info the best way possible. Do you think that BB has info that other teams don't, yet there are some GMs that suck really bad, that shows that it's not just having information, it's applying that info well that makes the real difference.