Who is your "safety valve" at #29?

[mayoclinic]

For starters, there are almost never "sure things" in any draft, and there has never been one at pick 29. Secondly, the thread is about who would you take if all of the perceived blue chips are gone, so when people are mentioning Aaron Donald in a trade up, that's not what the thread is asking.

3rd, as Manx said, Jimmie Ward is this draft's best safety. He does everything well and a few things very well. Mayo is advocating playing the 5-2 look that Seattle went to, and it looks to me as if Belichick has decided playing the 4-3 under or something similar to it is the way he's trending. This basically requires two coverage safeties, making people's desire for a head-hunter type who can't cover obsolete.

Hence, Jimmie Ward.

I don't question that Ward is a worthy "safety valve" (pun intended) at 29. My only question is, if you are looking for a rangy ballhawking DB with man coverage ability to pair with Devin McCourty, what does Ward provide that Logan Ryan doesn't already do? They seem like fairly similar players to me. That's not necessarily an argument against Ward at 29, but it's a question.

 

[manxman2601]

I don't question that Ward is a worthy "safety valve" (pun intended) at 29. My only question is, if you are looking for a rangy ballhawking DB with man coverage ability to pair with Devin McCourty, what does Ward provide that Logan Ryan doesn't already do? They seem like fairly similar players to me. That's not necessarily an argument against Ward at 29, but it's a question.

Not trying to be sarcastic, but he's played the position for one. Ryan is a projection at safety whereas we know that Jimmie Ward has the outstanding instincts to play the safety position, a position where instincts are so much more important that at CB.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

I don't question that Ward is a worthy "safety valve" (pun intended) at 29. My only question is, if you are looking for a rangy ballhawking DB with man coverage ability to pair with Devin McCourty, what does Ward provide that Logan Ryan doesn't already do? They seem like fairly similar players to me. That's not necessarily an argument against Ward at 29, but it's a question.

An excellent question Mayo. I'd say for starters that Ward has played safety---certainly not in the NFL, but neither has Ryan. I don't doubt that Ryan could become a fine player there, I'm actually a very big fan of his and thought he had a tremendous rookie season.

Ward is an underrated tackler, the times he plays in the box he is always under control and always takes the proper angle. He goes right through guys thigh pads and brings them to the ground, he's not Meriweather-ing about guys' shoulder pads with his forearms. He has outstanding instincts for the position. Ryan could certainly get there, I just feel that with the roster as currently constructed that Ward would beat out Harmon if drafted and be a day one starter.

Ward is not my preferred option at 29, I'd be happy with them taking him a little lower with a trade down. Hageman and a few others would make me happier. I just wouldn't shed tears if they drafted the best safety in the class and gave Belichick the most talented safety duo he's had since before Geno Wilson forgot how to play.

 

[dryheat44]

This basically requires two coverage safeties, making people's desire for a head-hunter type who can't cover obsolete.

Yeah....we have Patrick Chung to fit that role.

 

[50-yard-line]

That is not in any particular order except to say Fuller would be my top choice, the rest would require some thought.

The Pats have Revis, Browner, Ryan, Dennard and Arrington and you'd take a CB in the first round?

 

[manxman2601]

The Pats have Revis, Browner, Ryan, Dennard and Arrington and you'd take a CB in the first round?

Revis is on a one year contract and Browner is one joint away from a lifetime ban. And Fuller is great and easily worth a first round pick. Wouldn't be disappointed by the pick at all although I think it's less likely now than before. But this thread is about safe bets if the initial targets are gone.

 

[Brady6]

The Pats have Revis, Browner, Ryan, Dennard and Arrington and you'd take a CB in the first round?

I just really like Fuller I think he has potential to be a Revis or Sherman. He might not be a big part of this season but long term he could be a major contributor.

 

[Brady6]

Revis is on a one year contract and Browner is one joint away from a lifetime ban. And Fuller is great and easily worth a first round pick. Wouldn't be disappointed by the pick at all although I think it's less likely now than before. But this thread is about safe bets if the initial targets are gone.

Agreed, although to be honest I would probably take Fuller as my top choice even if some other players who fit a need more were on the board, this is a deep draft so we can fill needs later but to walk away with Fuller at #29 would give this team a true lockdown CB for years to come.

 

[mayoclinic]

An excellent question Mayo. I'd say for starters that Ward has played safety---certainly not in the NFL, but neither has Ryan. I don't doubt that Ryan could become a fine player there, I'm actually a very big fan of his and thought he had a tremendous rookie season.

Ward is an underrated tackler, the times he plays in the box he is always under control and always takes the proper angle. He goes right through guys thigh pads and brings them to the ground, he's not Meriweather-ing about guys' shoulder pads with his forearms. He has outstanding instincts for the position. Ryan could certainly get there, I just feel that with the roster as currently constructed that Ward would beat out Harmon if drafted and be a day one starter.

Ward is not my preferred option at 29, I'd be happy with them taking him a little lower with a trade down. Hageman and a few others would make me happier. I just wouldn't shed tears if they drafted the best safety in the class and gave Belichick the most talented safety duo he's had since before Geno Wilson forgot how to play.

I hadn't overlooked the obvious fact that Ward has played safety in college. But he hasn't played in the NFL, or for the Pats, and it doesn't guarantee success (look at Pat Chung). Ryan hasn't played safety per se, but he has a year of success as a playmaker in the Pats' system, and they are reportedly trying him at safety.

It all depends on who you see Ward potentially replacing. I agree he would be a major upgrade to Harmon as a coverage safety. However, if the Pats are trying to get their 5 best defenders on the field, then Ward would just be competing with Ryan and Dennard most of the time, and I'm not sure he would be that much of an upgrade over either.

Again, I think Ward is worth the 29 pick, and I think it's fully justifiable under the "you can never have too many good DBs" argument, and in terms of long term planning. I wouldn't be upset with it - I think any time you draft a quality player it's not a bad move, and I agree with your overall assessment of Ward. But I can think of other players or areas where I think that there could be a bigger upgrade.

 

[BobDigital]

I am so-so on Fuller at 29. On one hand you are picking him well above value which is always good. One the other hand it is not a real need position and more a "for next year" pick which I think be a mistake.

The only way it makes any kind of sense is if you move Ryan to safety and he plays just as well there if not better than he did CB.

 

[Mark Morse]

Given that all those players are gone including Zach Martin, then I go with Joel Bitonio. Vastly underrated OL. Nobody knows him because he played at Nevada.

I still think BB trades the pick.

May have to move up from 62 to get Bitonio.

 

[captain stone]

Let's see who's available among DT/DE beasts Hageman & Tuitt, interior disruptors Jernigan & Easley,
edge rushers Ealy, Ford & Murphy, and pure LBs Shazier & Van Noy.

Tweeners like Attaochu & Lawrence are too risky here, and Crichton isn't a top-30 physical talent.

Just as Zack Martin is the only OLman, Eric Ebron is the only TE I would consider at 29, but both likely
will be long gone anyway.

I also would strongly consider a small trade-down if some of the above names are still available.
At worst, some of the next-level guys stand a better chance of lasting a bit longer.

 

[Mark Morse]

Let's see who's available among DT/DE beasts Hageman & Tuitt, interior disruptors Jernigan & Easley,
edge rushers Ealy, Ford & Murphy, and pure LBs Shazier & Van Noy.

Tweeners like Attaochu & Lawrence are too risky here, and Crichton isn't a top-30 physical talent.

Just as Zack Martin is the only OLman, Eric Ebron is the only TE I would consider at 29, but both likely
will be long gone anyway.

I also would strongly consider a small trade-down if some of the above names are still available.
At worst, some of the next-level guys stand a better chance of lasting a bit longer.

I have read some awful things about Ebron the last few days ... especially that he doesn't have good practice skills ... doesn't always play up to his ability! TE class has been bashed recently. Some think that Fiedorowicz is the best TE available.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Some think that Fiedorowicz is the best TE available.

Some are saying that, but nobody thinks that. This is just typical smokescreening and posturing before the draft.

 

[ATippett56]

He's a beast!

Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

 

[Avenger]

Some are saying that, but nobody thinks that. This is just typical smokescreening and posturing before the draft.

He's my favorite though and IMHO the best fit for the Pats

 

[Big-T]

Some are saying that, but nobody thinks that. This is just typical smokescreening and posturing before the draft.

With a year of coaching up he will be the best TE from the draft. He's already the best blocker and has great hands, he just needs some refining.

 

[patfanken]

Very interesting exercise Patchick. There have been a lot of good answers, but in the end I'd have to go with Tuitt for the following reasons

1. By this point EVERYONE comes with at least some question marks.

2. I think the Steven Tuitt of 2012 would rank much higher than he did this year. Injuries and added weight caused a perceptible drop in production. So it the Pats are comfortable that Tuitt will return to health, he'd be a steal at 29

3. I think BB is a 3-4 guy at heart and the reason we are in a 4-3 is more about his roster than his philosophy. If Tuitt is the guy the between Siliga at NT and Tuitt as the 3-4 DE and Armstead as the other, the Pats have 3 young pieces of the old 3-4 back in place to go along with the 2 older pieces in Kelly and Wilfolk

4. Since its likely we stay in a 4-3 base for this season, Tuitt's position flexibility would be ideal since he could be a pocket pushing DT like Kelly, and play some DE, especially in run situtations.

5. I DO NOT want Ford or Mosely 29. Both are dropping like stones, and for good reason. Both are excellent college player who aren't going to translate as well in the pros. Of course Ford could be the next James Harrison, and Mosely the next Lavonte David, but not in my eyes.

6. I loved Mayo's 5-2 analysis. Lots of formation flexibility and we have the right talent if we can mget the inside 3 set. Jones and Ninko would be perfect fits as the outside guys. since they can set the edge, rush the pass, and drop back in coverage.

Historical note: The 5-2 was originally perfected by Bud Wilkerson at Oklahoma back in the mid 50's. It was commonly called the "Okie". It was the defense I played in HS, and the one I coached 10 years later. Years later it became known as a 3-4 in the pros.

I'd rather see us back in a 3-4 simply because the biggest value of the scheme is that you can better hide your pass rush strategy than with a 4-3. And bringing this post back full circle, Steven Tuitt would be someone who could get us back to the 3-4

7. Other choices I'd be OK with are Easley, Ealy, and the best TE available

 

[dryheat44]

Very interesting exercise Patchick. There have been a lot of good answers, but in the end I'd have to go with Tuitt for the following reasons

1. By this point EVERYONE comes with at least some question marks.

2. I think the Steven Tuitt of 2012 would rank much higher than he did this year. Injuries and added weight caused a perceptible drop in production. So it the Pats are comfortable that Tuitt will return to health, he'd be a steal at 29

3. I think BB is a 3-4 guy at heart and the reason we are in a 4-3 is more about his roster than his philosophy. If Tuitt is the guy the between Siliga at NT and Tuitt as the 3-4 DE and Armstead as the other, the Pats have 3 young pieces of the old 3-4 back in place to go along with the 2 older pieces in Kelly and Wilfolk

4. Since its likely we stay in a 4-3 base for this season, Tuitt's position flexibility would be ideal since he could be a pocket pushing DT like Kelly, and play some DE, especially in run situtations.

5. I DO NOT want Ford or Mosely 29. Both are dropping like stones, and for good reason. Both are excellent college player who aren't going to translate as well in the pros. Of course Ford could be the next James Harrison, and Mosely the next Lavonte David, but not in my eyes.

6. I loved Mayo's 5-2 analysis. Lots of formation flexibility and we have the right talent if we can mget the inside 3 set. Jones and Ninko would be perfect fits as the outside guys. since they can set the edge, rush the pass, and drop back in coverage.

Historical note: The 5-2 was originally perfected by Bud Wilkerson at Oklahoma back in the mid 50's. It was commonly called the "Okie". It was the defense I played in HS, and the one I coached 10 years later. Years later it became known as a 3-4 in the pros.

I'd rather see us back in a 3-4 simply because the biggest value of the scheme is that you can better hide your pass rush strategy than with a 4-3. And bringing this post back full circle, Steven Tuitt would be someone who could get us back to the 3-4

7. Other choices I'd be OK with are Easley, Ealy, and the best TE available

Good post. I think we'll be in the 4-3 for the foreseeable future for economic reasons. Too many teams are running the 3-4 and the competition and cost for those players has now approached prohibitive levels.

 

[mayoclinic]

6. I loved Mayo's 5-2 analysis. Lots of formation flexibility and we have the right talent if we can mget the inside 3 set. Jones and Ninko would be perfect fits as the outside guys. since they can set the edge, rush the pass, and drop back in coverage.

Historical note: The 5-2 was originally perfected by Bud Wilkerson at Oklahoma back in the mid 50's. It was commonly called the "Okie". It was the defense I played in HS, and the one I coached 10 years later. Years later it became known as a 3-4 in the pros.

I'd rather see us back in a 3-4 simply because the biggest value of the scheme is that you can better hide your pass rush strategy than with a 4-3. And bringing this post back full circle, Steven Tuitt would be someone who could get us back to the 3-4

7. Other choices I'd be OK with are Easley, Ealy, and the best TE available

Thanks, Ken.

To be clear, I think the Pats will run a hybrid - be "multiple", to use BB's term - and the key is the personnel more than the scheme. A 2-gapping 3-4 worked really well with Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Ted Washington, Keith Traylor and Vince Wilfork up front, and with Willie McGinest, Teddy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer. I don't see a 2-gapping 3-4 as the way to go, but I think that the Pats have the personnel (especially if they add 1 or 2 pieces via the draft) to play a more aggressive hybrid front that can morph between a 5-2, 4-3 under (with one tackle becoming the LDE and the original left end standing up) or a 3-4 (with both tackles alongside the DT playing 3-4 DE, and both original ends standing up).

The names aren't as important as having the kind of players that can execute the schemes.

The Pats have perhaps the most talented back 7 in the NFL with Mayo-Hightower-Collins at LB (especially if Collins makes the expected progression and picks up where he left off last year) and Revis-Browner-McCourty-Dennard-Ryan at DB. Sure, we could use depth at LB, a speedy LB/S hybrid, and you can never have enough good DBs; but the DL is where the personnel are more of a question mark, IMO. Wilfork is coming off a major injury and may never be the same, Jones and Ninkovich wore down playing too many snaps, and Kelly (coming off an ACL) plus Armstead-Jones-Vellano just isn't something I'd want to count on filling the two DT/DE roles on either side of the NT to run that kind of a hybrid scheme. Some combination of Aaron Donald, Dominique Easley, Ra'Shede Hageman and Stephon Tuitt would provide a huge boost.

Although I'm not going to give up hope on Aaron Donald until someone else picks him in the draft, I think that a combination of Stephon Tuitt and Dominique Easley would be darn good, and the Pats could quite possibly get both with 29+62 if they are lucky, and if they can move around a bit. That would give the Pats a 5 man base DL that looks like:

Ninkovich/Hightower - Tuitt/Kelly/Armstead - Wilfork/Siliga - Easley/Chr. Jones - Cha. Jones/Buchanan

Tuitt/Kelly/Armstead could play a "3 Tech" role in a 5 man front, or a LDE role in a 4-3 under with Ninkovich/Hightower moving back to LB. And if Chandler Jones stands up in a McGinest kind of "elephant" role then you have a 3-4. That would be a pretty deep and versatile line, with a lot of young talent to develop for the long term.