Which Pats pick is most likely to change hands?

[patman52]

33, IMO, the rest of the league is going to have to night to think about trading up.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Alos look to see in what rounds the Pats are award comp picks in, ( think Watson should land us a 4th rounder) the Pats have a history of moving there pick in a later round when they have an untradeable comp pick backing it up.

Most likely the Pats get none. Watson's contract I think would normally be a late 5/early 6, IIRC, and Crumpler cancels that out.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Most likely the Pats get none. Watson's contract I think would normally be a late 5/early 6, IIRC, and Crumpler cancels that out.

Crumpler's contract is cancelled out by Baker (Seattle 2 ys 2.75 mil). Watson signed a ridiculous 3 year 12 million 6.3 guarenteed contract plus he had a pretty productive year. The Pats will get at least a fifth round comp pick for Watson.

 

[Sciz]

Does Jarvis Green count? He signed a pretty big contract, but was then cut.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Does Jarvis Green count? He signed a pretty big contract, but was then cut.

Good question, he signed for 4 years 20 mil with a 2/5 mil signing bonus but did get cut before the first game, so I would say "no" but AdamJT13 is the blogger who knows this stuff best, he should be out with his predictions in a few weeks and we will see what he says.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good question, he signed for 4 years 20 mil with a 2/5 mil signing bonus but did get cut before the first game, so I would say "no" but AdamJT13 is the blogger who knows this stuff best, he should be out with his predictions in a few weeks and we will see what he says.

According to AdamJT13's past analyses, a player cut that early has never counted.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

That sounds kind of backwards to me. IF the teams are using the 2nd day to evaluate prospects and 'restack' their draft board that means that the 1st day is already over. Therefore how does pick #33 being traded back up into the 1st round happen when that round is by definition already over the day previous?

If a team sitting in the 22-26 range isn't really liking their options that 33 spot is a great place to be. The point is the Patriots use 33 to move another pick into the 1st round, while the round is still taking place, and the team they are dealing with takes 33 and another pick. The move is more palpable in their minds by having dibs on whatever player they want at the start of the 2nd round.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If a team sitting in the 22-26 range isn't really liking their options that 33 spot is a great place to be. The point is the Patriots use 33 to move another pick into the 1st round, while the round is still taking place, and the team they are dealing with takes 33 and another pick. The move is more palpable in their minds by having dibs on whatever player they want at the start of the 2nd round.

I'm not sure I see how this benefits NE. They already have 17 and 28, after all. . . .

 

[WesWelker83]

I see 17 being traded down to 25 where can select Muhammed Wilkerson. I don't see KC taking him at 21 with big money committed to Dorsey and Jackson at DE. At 18 SD takes Jordan or Watt and we get our boy Wilkerson later while picking up a third.

I would love to trade 33 to Washington for their first next year. I think Washington is going to be one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL next year. Washington lost their 2nd Rd pick to get Mcnabb and they could be willing to do something dumb again by trading a future first. If Arizona or Carolina wants to trade their first next yr too for 33 I would take that trade. These three teams all suck and will be bad next year too.

 

[Real World]

Without knowing who's on the board, and how the draft is shaping up, I think #28 will be the pick that gets moved first. The pick that I think is most likely to get traded, is the #33 pick. That one has the sound of a 1st rounder in 2012 + a 2nd this year written all over it. Some team is going to sit in it's draft room overnight, salivating over some guy they had high on their board who is still there at #33 on day 2. I think BB knows that, and will hold it in the hopes of getting a kings randsom for it. That's what I would do.

 

[townes]

#33. although I can see him moving around with any and all of them. If they really like a prospect they could go up a few from #17, if they decide the player they want will be there at #33 they could move the #28, and the most likely one to be moved is the #33, as teams are going to treat it as a mini version of what the #1 used to be, but at much less cost. Some Teams will be wanting that 1 player and the will have all night to play out the scenarios and take the best bid, and I'd be really surprised if they end up taking that pick.

 

[jsull87]

I have to say #33, someone unexpected could fall to 17 and the Pats might scoop him, and #28 is the range they like to pick in. But give BB the entire night to shop a pick, especially if one or more of the QBs are still on the board (Mallett, Capernick, Newton, etc.) and we all know that there are plenty of teams that NEED QBs. I could easily see that pick getting traded.

Alos look to see in what rounds the Pats are award comp picks in, ( think Watson should land us a 4th rounder) the Pats have a history of moving there pick in a later round when they have an untradeable comp pick backing it up.

i never get this with comp picks... why wouldn't watson be a 3rd rounder if it's based on performance? he went 68 catches for 700+ yards and 3 tds. If it's based on contract pretty sure he got a pretty nice one from the browns too

 

[ctpatsfan77]

i never get this with comp picks... why wouldn't watson be a 3rd rounder if it's based on performance? he went 68 catches for 700+ yards and 3 tds. If it's based on contract pretty sure he got a pretty nice one from the browns too

It's based primarily on average annual contract value, not performance (although performance can determine the order of picks within a round, and in some cases can push a pick up/down a round), and a 3rd is as high as they allow.

 

[patsfan-1982]

i think #17 will get trade it down and #28 will get trade it for a #1 next year. and i also think the pats could trade #33 to a team that wants a guy bad on day 2 of the draft

the pats could come out of the first two round of the draft with Mike Pouncey, at #23 and Muhammed Wilkerson, at #60 and a total of three #1's in 2012

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

I'm not sure I see how this benefits NE. They already have 17 and 28, after all. . . .

Yeah 3 picks in the first round isn't that great.

 

[Spiral]

I'd love to see a qb available at 28 or 33, and have the Titans give us a 2011 #2 and a 2012 #1 for it. That pick might turn out to be the golden ticket.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yeah 3 picks in the first round isn't that great.

Not quite my point. My point is simply that I don't see how trading up from 33—with the attendant loss of picks that entails—helps them in the long run more than staying at #33 and/or trading down from there to a needy team.

 

[patfanken]

Not quite my point. My point is simply that I don't see how trading up from 33—with the attendant loss of picks that entails—helps them in the long run more than staying at #33 and/or trading down from there to a needy team.

I think of it as either or. You either keep the 33 and trade the 28, or keep the 28 and trade the 33. You are going to get pretty much the same player (talent wise) at either spot.

The advantage of keeping the 28 is that you can control the kid for an extra year (5 vs 4). The advantage of the 33 is the extra day you get to field offers, so even though the pick is slightly lower, you MIGHT be able to get better value for it because of the full day you have to make the deal. Its like being on the clock for 24 hours

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

Not quite my point. My point is simply that I don't see how trading up from 33—with the attendant loss of picks that entails—helps them in the long run more than staying at #33 and/or trading down from there to a needy team.

Well the cost of grabbing a pick at the 22-26 range is roughly 33 and 76. I think this is a deep draft, especially at where our particular needs are, and knowing that our roster has good depth all the way around the focus shouldn't be so much about getting allot of good prospects but rather a couple really good players. I think 3 first rounders helps accomplish that for us.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Buffalo Bills are going to hold the ket to this puzzle and here's why....

The Bills NEED a QB (desperately) but none of them are rated high enough that the Bills can/will take one at #3 overall. Now if the Bills do not come out of the first round with a QB (either by reaching or trading back or back into the 1st round), then any team looking for a QB is going to have to jump the Bills in the second round. Well guess what pick the Bills have in round two? That's right #34.......

Newton and Gabbert will most likely go in the first round before #28, but teams are going to want to get ahead of the Bills if they are looking to pick up Locker or Mallett. This is where the Pats can capitalize and maybe trade back out of the late first round, or hold out for the overnight and get a king's ransom for #33 (plus screwing division rival Buffalo at the same time).

You figure the following teams MUSt be looking for their starting QB in this draft:
Buffalo
Washington
Minnesota
San Fransico
Arizona
Tennessee

That's alot of teams....