I.M. Fletcher
2nd Team Getting Their First Start
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When you talk about the vaunted defense of the Seahawks, we continue to look at the team through a lens that we recognize. When a team has years of continued success, we have a habit of generalizing success, and missing details when things change along the way.
This is one major change that cannot go unnoticed.
Here are the Defensive line by snap count from last years Super Bowl compared to this years expected snap count based off last week
Michael Bennett Michael Bennett
Chris Clemons Cliff Avril
Brendan Mebane Demarcus Dobbs
Clint McDonald Kevin Williams
Red Bryant Tony McDaniel
Cliff Avril Obrien Schofield
Tony McDaniel Landon Cohen
Some of those names will look familar, which is why there is so much fear attached to the Seahawks defense. Its when you start doing some digging that you realize how flawed this line is right now. They will be STARTING Demarcus Dobbs, who most of you wont know, because he couldnt break through on San Frans D line, even with the injuries and suspensions they had this year. They let him go after 5 games, only for Dobbs to play in 4 of the last 8 games. He is now expected to play the most interior snaps for the defense. That may not sound so bad, as players have a history of sprouting at different times, but Dobbs is not one of them. He recorded 9 tackles, no pressures and no sacks in those 4 games +2 playoff games. If you are wondering if he is just a space eater, hes 15lbs heavier than Ninkovich. Kevin Williams was brought in as a Red Bryant cheap replacement, with the hopes to use him sparingly. Unfortunately, with the injury to Brendan Mebane, he has had to take on far more snaps than expected. While his numbers and production have been solid, its a lot to expect from a 35yr old lineman to carry the interior at this stage of his career.
The team let great backup penetrating Tackle Clint MacDonald go in free agency because of the expected growth from 2013 2nd round pick Jordan Hill. Hill had his breakout in the second half of the season, registering 5.5 sacks in the final 6 regular season games, not coincidentally when the defense began to play like they are feared to be. He unfortunately tore his hamstring in week 17 practice, leaving a gigantic hole in their essential penetrating Tackle role. In a scramble to fill that role, they picked up journeyman Landon Cohen off waivers in week 17, and then played important snaps in both playoff games. It isnt any surprise that both carolina and Green Bay had far more success running the ball than people expected, some believing that it was due to great offensive line work. In reality, this line did not have much room for error, and are now paper thin at a position that is essential for their hyper aggressive defense.
Much is made about the amount of pressure and sacks this defense gets with a 4 man rush, but it hasnt been the same force people have come to know. With the strong mix of Bennett, Clemons and Avril being able to share snaps, they allowed each player to pin their ears back and go full throttle every play. With Clemons gone, and really no one else with pass rushing ability from the END position, they were far less successful pressuring the QB. As an example, Michael Bennett went from playing 60-70% of the snaps, to playing 90% and up this season. That is a significant burden. Some will say Ninko and Jones play in that range, but with the multitude of responsibilities they have, they arent sprinting after the QB every snap.
This is how they ranked last year compared to this year on sack rate %
sack rate % league rank
2013 7.6 7th overall
2014 6.8 14th overall
While they look fairly close, when you factor in the currently injured players, and their sack totals being removed
2014 5.6 28th overall.
So why does any of this matter? They may not have a lot of meat up the middle, but they have one of the great linebacker cores and secondaries around, with speed to burn everywhere. Well, the answer is pretty simple.
Tom Brady. His biggest weakness has always been a pushed pocket. If he cannot step in to his throws, no matter how quickly he likes to get rid of it, he isnt nearly as effective. If a team cant push the pocket, Braddy will beat you in one of two ways. Either he will force teams to turn up their blitzes, which he can constantly pick apart the open area, or he simply has more time to operate, which is equally as dangerous. He was almost created to beat teams that cheat defensively, to punish them for having the wrong personnel.
If you were to guess, how many times has Brady lost to a team that didnt have a tackle with at least 5 sacks in the past 3 years, what would you guess?
Once. Oh, and Brady had one of the all time great performances in that game as well, on a hurricane weather night against San Fran in 2011. So if you are going in to this game worried that Brady will stumble in to a similar fate as Manning last year, RELAX. That defense was other worldly, and are rightfully defending champions. But this team isnt the same force, and certainly not if they are counting on Landon Cohen or Demarcus Dobbs to save the day.
So, apologies for all the words, but i have been dying to talk actual football for 9 days now.
This is one major change that cannot go unnoticed.
Here are the Defensive line by snap count from last years Super Bowl compared to this years expected snap count based off last week
Michael Bennett Michael Bennett
Chris Clemons Cliff Avril
Brendan Mebane Demarcus Dobbs
Clint McDonald Kevin Williams
Red Bryant Tony McDaniel
Cliff Avril Obrien Schofield
Tony McDaniel Landon Cohen
Some of those names will look familar, which is why there is so much fear attached to the Seahawks defense. Its when you start doing some digging that you realize how flawed this line is right now. They will be STARTING Demarcus Dobbs, who most of you wont know, because he couldnt break through on San Frans D line, even with the injuries and suspensions they had this year. They let him go after 5 games, only for Dobbs to play in 4 of the last 8 games. He is now expected to play the most interior snaps for the defense. That may not sound so bad, as players have a history of sprouting at different times, but Dobbs is not one of them. He recorded 9 tackles, no pressures and no sacks in those 4 games +2 playoff games. If you are wondering if he is just a space eater, hes 15lbs heavier than Ninkovich. Kevin Williams was brought in as a Red Bryant cheap replacement, with the hopes to use him sparingly. Unfortunately, with the injury to Brendan Mebane, he has had to take on far more snaps than expected. While his numbers and production have been solid, its a lot to expect from a 35yr old lineman to carry the interior at this stage of his career.
The team let great backup penetrating Tackle Clint MacDonald go in free agency because of the expected growth from 2013 2nd round pick Jordan Hill. Hill had his breakout in the second half of the season, registering 5.5 sacks in the final 6 regular season games, not coincidentally when the defense began to play like they are feared to be. He unfortunately tore his hamstring in week 17 practice, leaving a gigantic hole in their essential penetrating Tackle role. In a scramble to fill that role, they picked up journeyman Landon Cohen off waivers in week 17, and then played important snaps in both playoff games. It isnt any surprise that both carolina and Green Bay had far more success running the ball than people expected, some believing that it was due to great offensive line work. In reality, this line did not have much room for error, and are now paper thin at a position that is essential for their hyper aggressive defense.
Much is made about the amount of pressure and sacks this defense gets with a 4 man rush, but it hasnt been the same force people have come to know. With the strong mix of Bennett, Clemons and Avril being able to share snaps, they allowed each player to pin their ears back and go full throttle every play. With Clemons gone, and really no one else with pass rushing ability from the END position, they were far less successful pressuring the QB. As an example, Michael Bennett went from playing 60-70% of the snaps, to playing 90% and up this season. That is a significant burden. Some will say Ninko and Jones play in that range, but with the multitude of responsibilities they have, they arent sprinting after the QB every snap.
This is how they ranked last year compared to this year on sack rate %
sack rate % league rank
2013 7.6 7th overall
2014 6.8 14th overall
While they look fairly close, when you factor in the currently injured players, and their sack totals being removed
2014 5.6 28th overall.
So why does any of this matter? They may not have a lot of meat up the middle, but they have one of the great linebacker cores and secondaries around, with speed to burn everywhere. Well, the answer is pretty simple.
Tom Brady. His biggest weakness has always been a pushed pocket. If he cannot step in to his throws, no matter how quickly he likes to get rid of it, he isnt nearly as effective. If a team cant push the pocket, Braddy will beat you in one of two ways. Either he will force teams to turn up their blitzes, which he can constantly pick apart the open area, or he simply has more time to operate, which is equally as dangerous. He was almost created to beat teams that cheat defensively, to punish them for having the wrong personnel.
If you were to guess, how many times has Brady lost to a team that didnt have a tackle with at least 5 sacks in the past 3 years, what would you guess?
Once. Oh, and Brady had one of the all time great performances in that game as well, on a hurricane weather night against San Fran in 2011. So if you are going in to this game worried that Brady will stumble in to a similar fate as Manning last year, RELAX. That defense was other worldly, and are rightfully defending champions. But this team isnt the same force, and certainly not if they are counting on Landon Cohen or Demarcus Dobbs to save the day.
So, apologies for all the words, but i have been dying to talk actual football for 9 days now.
