Where to save some cap space

[mayoclinic]

I agree with your comments.

I am amused that everyone sees Gregory as gone. IMHO, he is a fine #3 safety and an OK #2 safety. We have plenty of room on the roster to keep Gregory in addition to adding a young safety. After all, the young safety will be replacing Chung, not Gregory.

I think Gregory's a solid #3 safety. However, (1) I think his deal is too much to pay for a #3 safety, (2) I'm not convinced that he's better than Tavon Wilson will be next year (not as a rookie, but with a 2nd year leap), and (3) I'm not convincd that Wilson is starting material. So that leaves the Pats without a solid starting safety opposite McCourty and with 2 guys stuck as the #3 safety, one of whom is tying up too much cap space. That's not the biggest dilemma we have, but it is something of an issue. But it will most likely sort itself out in the next 7 months, one way or another.

 

[mgteich]

I believe that Belichick likes have three safeties who all get a major number of defensive reps. Obviously, we also need three solid safeties in case of injury. And yes, I would be fine with Wilson starting and Gregory at #3. The total cost of the position doesn't change.

I think Gregory's a solid #3 safety. However, (1) I think his deal is too much to pay for a #3 safety, (2) I'm not convinced that he's better than Tavon Wilson will be next year (not as a rookie, but with a 2nd year leap), and (3) I'm not convincd that Wilson is starting material. So that leaves the Pats without a solid starting safety opposite McCourty and with 2 guys stuck as the #3 safety, one of whom is tying up too much cap space. That's not the biggest dilemma we have, but it is something of an issue. But it will most likely sort itself out in the next 7 months, one way or another.

 

[Brady2Moss]

There was a tremendous dropoff, and that was despite Mankins being a hobbled shell of his normal self. Paying Mankins was smart then, it's smart now, and it would have been smarter if they'd done it the year before they did.

This is ludicrous

 

[ausbacker]

There was a tremendous dropoff, and that was despite Mankins being a hobbled shell of his normal self. Paying Mankins was smart then, it's smart now, and it would have been smarter if they'd done it the year before they did.

Not that I disagree but is this an opinion or have you got facts to back up this claim? I'd be interested to see what the differences were.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I don't think we are in bad cap shape at all. We may not be able to re-sign all 3 of our big free agents but I think we can certainly keep 2 of the 3 (I would try and keep Welker and Talib). I don't think there is any great rush to cut guys, but we could save a good chunk of change if some of these guys don't make the roster out of camp (splits some cap hits over 2 years):
- Gregory $1.35mil
- Fells $1.325mil
- Larson $750k
- Cunningham $630k
- Gostkowski $2.6mil (I know this is controversial but something to consider)

Add in the guys that come off the bottom of the roster when rookies are added and we are in decent cap shape even before re-structuring.

One player that I think is in an interesting position is Brandon Spikes. He is a free agent next season and I think he could be looking for a big payday. If the Pats feel they may not be able to re-sign him next year, and are comfortable with Hightower taking over his role now, he could be an interesting trade candidate. While I would hate to see him go, he should have decent trade value and it could be an opportunity to add more athletecism to our LBers.

Just an idea, but KC has a big hole at ILB in their 3-4. Andy Reid and BB have a good relationship and KC should be able to re-sign him to a long term deal. So maybe Spikes for their 2nd (#44) or more likely their 3rd is possible. I'm not saying I want to do this, just throwing the idea out their because BB has shown he likes to move a guy a year early rather than a year late.

 

[shmessy]

Not that I disagree but is this an opinion or have you got facts to back up this claim? I'd be interested to see what the differences were.

Good call, Aus.

Deus gives opinions out with 100% certitude as if, because it comes out of his mouth, it is automatically true.

Here are the FACTS: Donald Thomas started 7 games for the Patriots in 2012, in those games:
_____________________________________________________________________________________



1) Patriots Record: 6-1 (they were 6-3 in games NOT started by Thomas)


2) Points Scored: 275 (39.3 avg - - this is 4.5 above the 34.8 ppg WITHOUT Thomas starting)

3) Brady
------
-Sacks: 10 (1.43 avg) - - - 17 (1.89 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas
-165/261: (63.2% avg completion) - - - 236/376 (62.8%) in games NOT started by Thomas
-2,111 yds: (301.6 avg) - - 2,716 yds (301.8 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas *** the ONLY data point where the numbers are not higher in Thomas-started games (and it is by a mere 0.2 yds per game)
-TD-INT: 17-2 - - - 17-6 in games NOT started by Thomas

4) Team Rushing
-----------

994yds (142.0 avg) - the 9 games WITHOUT Thomas starting: 1,190 (132.2 avg.)




Mankins turns 31 in a few weeks. Thomas is 27.

Did Mankins play hurt this year? You bet he did. he is one tough SOB - - good for him. He also (unwisely) played very hurt in 2011. That puts alot of negative mileage on a body.


****Deus proclaims there was a "tremendous dropoff" last year from Logan Mankins to Donald Thomas. I call baloney to that ignorant claim. He has his mouth and his certitude. What are listed above are cold, hard FACTS. Mankins is NOT worth the extra $8-9 million per year in cap space over Donald Thomas. Mankins is NOT the 3rd most important cog to the New England Patriots.

Someone, anyone now PLEASE tell me how Logan Mankins is worth $8-9 million more to the New England Patriots than Donald Thomas.

All I ask is for an explanation to that claim.


.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think we are in bad cap shape at all. We may not be able to re-sign all 3 of our big free agents but I think we can certainly keep 2 of the 3 (I would try and keep Welker and Talib). I don't think there is any great rush to cut guys, but we could save a good chunk of change if some of these guys don't make the roster out of camp (splits some cap hits over 2 years):
- Gregory $1.35mil
- Fells $1.325mil
- Larson $750k
- Cunningham $630k
- Gostkowski $2.6mil (I know this is controversial but something to consider)

Add in the guys that come off the bottom of the roster when rookies are added and we are in decent cap shape even before re-structuring.

I think we're in OK but not great cap shape, but we have to be VERY careful about getting too many big money contracts tying up too much of the cap with a flat cap likely for some time. The need for careful and judicious cap management will be painful for everyone, but will generally favor financially prudent teams like the Pats over short-term spenders who get into trouble. But there isn't going to be enough money to go around for everyone, and the Pats will have to pick and choose, and maybe make some painful choices. I don't think it's going to be as painless as you suggest, but that's just my opinion.

 

[JackBauer]

This is ludicrous

Actually, it's spot on. People are comparing Thomas' play to Mankins when the latter might just as well have been rolling up to the line in a mobility scooter. As we saw at the end of the year, when he was healthy, there's simply no comparison between a healthy Mankins and any other OG on the Patriots' roster.

 

[JackBauer]

I thought Cunningham looked pretty good before the suspension and don't see much sense in getting rid of him. I would definitely keep him around.

I think unless Bequette is a complete waste, he should be able to replace Scott. I agree that I'd rather keep Cunningham as he showed at least some ability to generate an inside rush.

 

[borg]

Good call, Aus.

Deus gives opinions out with 100% certitude as if, because it comes out of his mouth, it is automatically true.

Here are the FACTS: Donald Thomas started 7 games for the Patriots in 2012, in those games:
_____________________________________________________________________________________



1) Patriots Record: 6-1 (they were 6-3 in games NOT started by Thomas)


2) Points Scored: 275 (39.3 avg - - this is 4.5 above the 34.8 ppg WITHOUT Thomas starting)

3) Brady
------
-Sacks: 10 (1.43 avg) - - - 17 (1.89 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas
-165/261: (63.2% avg completion) - - - 236/376 (62.8%) in games NOT started by Thomas
-2,111 yds: (301.6 avg) - - 2,716 yds (301.8 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas *** the ONLY data point where the numbers are not higher in Thomas-started games (and it is by a mere 0.2 yds per game)
-TD-INT: 17-2 - - - 17-6 in games NOT started by Thomas

4) Team Rushing
-----------

994yds (142.0 avg) - the 9 games WITHOUT Thomas starting: 1,190 (132.2 avg.)




Mankins turns 31 in a few weeks. Thomas is 27.

Did Mankins play hurt this year? You bet he did. he is one tough SOB - - good for him. He also (unwisely) played very hurt in 2011. That puts alot of negative mileage on a body.


****Deus proclaims there was a "tremendous dropoff" last year from Logan Mankins to Donald Thomas. I call baloney to that ignorant claim. He has his mouth and his certitude. What are listed above are cold, hard FACTS. Mankins is NOT worth the extra $8-9 million per year in cap space over Donald Thomas. Mankins is NOT the 3rd most important cog to the New England Patriots.

Someone, anyone now PLEASE tell me how Logan Mankins is worth $8-9 million more to the New England Patriots than Donald Thomas.

All I ask is for an explanation to that claim.


.

Nicely argued. Be prepared for the ...."I stand by my analysis" counter argument

 

[JackBauer]

Someone, anyone now PLEASE tell me how Logan Mankins is worth $8-9 million more to the New England Patriots than Donald Thomas.

Deus can speak for himself on the broader argument, but the fact is you can find parallel examples on nearly every team in the league.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think unless Bequette is a complete waste, he should be able to replace Scott. I agree that I'd rather keep Cunningham as he showed at least some ability to generate an inside rush.

Right now the DE position, along with the RB position, is the most cost-effective position on the team. The Pats will probably carry 6 players (with some crossover to DT). Right now the top 6 look like:

1. Chandler Jones (signed through 2015/16) - 2013 cap hit $1,857,613
2. Rob Ninkovich (signed through 2013) - 2013 cap hit $2,166,668
3. Armond Armstead (also plays DT; signed through 2015/16) - 2013 cap hit $405,000
4. Jermaine Cunningham (signed through 2013) - 2013 cap hit $960,000
5. Justin Francis (signed thorugh 2014) - 2013 cap hit $482,333
6. Jake Bequette (signed thorugh 2015) - 2013 cap hit $619,950

Those 6 guys add up to a total 2013 cap hit of $6,591,564. That's incredibly cheap. The 4 guys who are on contract for 2014 stay pretty cheap next year, too ($2.2M for Jones, $495K for Armstead, $572K for Francis, $710K for Bequette, or around $4M total). I think the odds are that Cunningham walks after this year. Keeping Ninkovich will cost a bit, but won't break the bank.

The other guys currently on the roster are Marcus Benard ($630K cap hit), Tracy Robertson ($405K cap hit), and Jason Vega (cap hit not yet reported, but probably in the $400-500K range). Any rookie will also have a fairly low cap hit.

So if anyone bumps one of those 6 guys off the roster, unless the Pats sign an outside FA, the overall cost of the DE position should stay extremely low. Keeping the cost of positions like DE and RB down is what allows the Pats to spend at other places.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It was 4Million and it's not been decided upon as far as we know.

EDIT: I know that PWP mentioned that someone said the Pats missed the deadline, but that was never verified with a credible source. And, the Pats filed the paperwork when they went to the league about voiding Fanene's contract, so I'm not sure how they would have "missed the deadline."

The Patriots never went to the league about voiding the contract. Where do you get this stuff. Filing that paperwork to cut him which is all they did had nothing to do with filing a grievance although it would start the clock on their window in which to file one. They used the new terminology failure to disclose, but that's the equivalent of claiming someone was fired with cause.

There are 25 day limits on filing some grievances and 3 year limits on others. Pat's haven't persued any grievance to date. Fanene hasn't either and he could have grieved his 2012 salary.

Next up is he is due the balance of his signing bonus by March 31st. They deferred payment of $1.35M of it although it is already presumed earned and therefore is on the cap as dead cap. If they don't pay him he may well file a grievance. Or if they are determined not to pay him any more cash and take a stab at recouping some of $2.5M in bonus money already paid him they may then proceed to try and recoup something. Or the two sides may decide to settle on a middle ground where he keeps what he got and he doesn't get any more. In which case they would get a cap credit for the deferred bonus money not paid. You also have to actually physically recoup money in order to have it come off the cap. Being awarded the right to recoup it isn't enough, as in the Vick case.

 

[patfanken]

Good call, Aus.

Deus gives opinions out with 100% certitude as if, because it comes out of his mouth, it is automatically true.

Here are the FACTS: Donald Thomas started 7 games for the Patriots in 2012, in those games:
_____________________________________________________________________________________



1) Patriots Record: 6-1 (they were 6-3 in games NOT started by Thomas)


2) Points Scored: 275 (39.3 avg - - this is 4.5 above the 34.8 ppg WITHOUT Thomas starting)

3) Brady
------
-Sacks: 10 (1.43 avg) - - - 17 (1.89 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas
-165/261: (63.2% avg completion) - - - 236/376 (62.8%) in games NOT started by Thomas
-2,111 yds: (301.6 avg) - - 2,716 yds (301.8 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas *** the ONLY data point where the numbers are not higher in Thomas-started games (and it is by a mere 0.2 yds per game)
-TD-INT: 17-2 - - - 17-6 in games NOT started by Thomas

4) Team Rushing
-----------

994yds (142.0 avg) - the 9 games WITHOUT Thomas starting: 1,190 (132.2 avg.)




Mankins turns 31 in a few weeks. Thomas is 27.

Did Mankins play hurt this year? You bet he did. he is one tough SOB - - good for him. He also (unwisely) played very hurt in 2011. That puts alot of negative mileage on a body.


****Deus proclaims there was a "tremendous dropoff" last year from Logan Mankins to Donald Thomas. I call baloney to that ignorant claim. He has his mouth and his certitude. What are listed above are cold, hard FACTS. Mankins is NOT worth the extra $8-9 million per year in cap space over Donald Thomas. Mankins is NOT the 3rd most important cog to the New England Patriots.

Someone, anyone now PLEASE tell me how Logan Mankins is worth $8-9 million more to the New England Patriots than Donald Thomas.

All I ask is for an explanation to that claim.

Great post - You described Deus perfectly. His greatest asset is his absolute certainly that whatever he posts is 100% correct, and anyone who has the temerity to disagree is an idiot...or worse. But I digress from what was even a more enlightening point

The Thomas/Mankins analogy points out a key element in the decision making process teams use to decide who to keep and who to let walk. Despite your stats, I don't think that (when healthy) anyone would claim that Mankins isn't a better OG than Thomas. I think the key point you brought up was, if he was $7-8MM better?

That's a key question that people often don't take into consideration when they are hyping keeping a guy they like. It goes without saying that if Welker walks, his replacement isn't likely to be as good. HOWEVER, will the drop off be more than the 8MM they are likely to save by letting him go and signing another slot guy.

FA is almost a month and a half away - right now that seems like forever. I foresee dozens of threads between then an now speculating on all manner of acquisitions and cuts, and very little in the way of information coming from the Pats. In other words more than 6 weeks of unbridled uninformed prognostication

If there is one thing I'd like to see done before March is Brady extension/reconstruction, and any other contractual retooling, so we will have a clear idea of exactly what kind of room we have to work with.

BTW- a correction - earlier in this thread I said the Jets worked Holmes' 5 year 50MM contract so he only cost $2.4MM against the cap in his first year. I was wrong. I read today that he only cost $1.4MM.....and only $3.6MM in his 2nd year.

 

[Deus Irae]

Good call, Aus.

Deus gives opinions out with 100% certitude as if, because it comes out of his mouth, it is automatically true.

Here are the FACTS: Donald Thomas started 7 games for the Patriots in 2012, in those games:
_____________________________________________________________________________________



1) Patriots Record: 6-1 (they were 6-3 in games NOT started by Thomas)


2) Points Scored: 275 (39.3 avg - - this is 4.5 above the 34.8 ppg WITHOUT Thomas starting)

3) Brady
------
-Sacks: 10 (1.43 avg) - - - 17 (1.89 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas
-165/261: (63.2% avg completion) - - - 236/376 (62.8%) in games NOT started by Thomas
-2,111 yds: (301.6 avg) - - 2,716 yds (301.8 avg) in games NOT started by Thomas *** the ONLY data point where the numbers are not higher in Thomas-started games (and it is by a mere 0.2 yds per game)
-TD-INT: 17-2 - - - 17-6 in games NOT started by Thomas

4) Team Rushing
-----------

994yds (142.0 avg) - the 9 games WITHOUT Thomas starting: 1,190 (132.2 avg.)




Mankins turns 31 in a few weeks. Thomas is 27.

Did Mankins play hurt this year? You bet he did. he is one tough SOB - - good for him. He also (unwisely) played very hurt in 2011. That puts alot of negative mileage on a body.


****Deus proclaims there was a "tremendous dropoff" last year from Logan Mankins to Donald Thomas. I call baloney to that ignorant claim. He has his mouth and his certitude. What are listed above are cold, hard FACTS. Mankins is NOT worth the extra $8-9 million per year in cap space over Donald Thomas. Mankins is NOT the 3rd most important cog to the New England Patriots.

Someone, anyone now PLEASE tell me how Logan Mankins is worth $8-9 million more to the New England Patriots than Donald Thomas.

All I ask is for an explanation to that claim.


.

Teams played when Thomas was starting:

Cardinals (17th in scoring defense)
Bills (26th)
Jets (20th)
Rams (14th)
Colts (21st)
Jets (20th)
Dolphins (7th)


The losses when Mankins was in:

Baltimore (12th)
Seattle (1st)
San Francisco (2nd)

So the toughest defense the Patriots faced with Thomas as the starter was the #7 Dolphins, which was the only top 10 he faced as the starter. The Patriots faced the #1, #2, #4, #7, #9 defenses with Thomas on the bench. But don't worry. Context is irrelevant, right?

 

[mayoclinic]

The Thomas/Mankins analogy points out a key element in the decision making process teams use to decide who to keep and who to let walk. Despite your stats, I don't think that (when healthy) anyone would claim that Mankins isn't a better OG than Thomas. I think the key point you brought up was, if he was $7-8MM better?

Without making any judgments about Mankins' play relative to that of his replacements, I should note that the Pats went 6-0 in the 6 games that Mankins missed this season. In 2010 they went 5-2 in the 7 games that he held out. That's a combined record of 11-2 with Donald Thomas and Dan Connolly (who at the time had started only 4 games in his entire career, all at RG) as our starting LG. So while Mankins may be a significant upgrade over his replacements, the Pats seem to survive in his absence with lesser players at LG. Obviously, that doesn't factor in that he was less than 100% much of this year when he did play, though that wasn't the case in 2010.

 

[patfanken]

Or if they are determined not to pay him any more cash and take a stab at recouping some of $2.5M in bonus money already paid him they may then proceed to try and recoup something. Or the two sides may decide to settle on a middle ground where he keeps what he got and he doesn't get any more. In which case they would get a cap credit for the deferred bonus money not paid. You also have to actually physically recoup money in order to have it come off the cap. Being awarded the right to recoup it isn't enough, as in the Vick case.

I think this is the most likeliest outcome, Mo. The answer to whether Fenene shafted the Pats, or the Pats medical staff wasn't thorough enough will have to wait for BB's memoirs to be published, but it just makes too much sense for the Pats not to just give up on the 2.5 he already has, and get a credit for the rest.

If both sides go the legal route, most of what would be gained by either party would be eaten up in the legal process. As usual, only the lawyers win. I think Fenene would agree, since he already stole $2.5MM from the Pats and any legal battle for the rest will cost him more, relatively speaking, than a deep pocketed multi-billion corporation.

IIRC from the threads on the topic when he was cut, going after the money they already gave him would be pretty murky. I think the Pats would have prove he was hurt prior to the signing, and that would be tough since (IIRC) he practiced a few days and he could claim he got hurt then. That would be hard to disprove.

 

[Ivan]

Sorry, but you cannot make a statistically based argument for things like the run game or pass protection based upon 1 OL and act as if that reflects their individual play. The only way an OL or DL can be judged is by coaches evaluating their performances on game film as it relates to their assignments.

Mankins is an exceptional OL who has been playing hurt the past 2 seasons, when healthy he is as good as they get and worth every penny of wwhat they paid him.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Patsy has it right. The ONLY way for us to save significant money beyond the current 16-18MM we are being told is our current situation, will be to restructure Brady, Mankins, and perhaps Wilfolk (though I think I read once where Wilfolk's deal would be hard to restructure). Since none of them are going to restructure for a penny less than what they have coming, any savings we get THIS year, will be just passed on to the future and must eventually come due.

JM's post shows that we don't have much savings to be garnered in making any cuts. Between the dead money and the replacement costs, any savings would be negligible. The bottom line is that prior to any restructures, we are in decent cap shape. Enough to re-sign some of our own FA's and dip into the vet FA market at a modest level.

If BB chooses to create significant additional cap space with major restructures or extensions with Brady and Mankins, then it tell me that he's committed to a 2 year window for winning a Lombardi or 2 before having to start ANOTHER major rebuild, because money saved now, eventually comes due.

That's not exactly true unless you're talking simple restructures and not extensions. Mankins can be restructured easily because his final season currently has ZERO amortization in it. It's all salary. So they could easily convert some of his salary this season and even next and push it forward with a good chunk of it going into an essentially dummy season (he signed a 7 year deal). Brady and Wilfork don't have enough time or space left for restructure. Extentions however would allow the team to add years into which new money would be amortized, and as long as they don't overshoot the mark on years (I'd only offer Vince 2-3) they should be faced with manageable caps for those players as well as manageable dead cap should they decide to part company with them before the final season on their new deals.

They don't have to do a deal with Wilfork, although it would benefit the cap and perhaps the roster (as opposed to having him in his final season in 2014). They do have to do a deal with Brady because his cap is artificially inflated over the remaining 2 seasons ($21M) due to earlier restructure. If they restructured him again this season he would enter the final season of his existing deal with a $28M cap hit and a $14M dead cap hit all to free up $7M in cap space for one more season. Tacking 4 more years onto his remaining 2 would lower his cap dramatically over the next 6 seasons and take him to 41. If you have to part with him after 5 more seasons his dead cap would be zero pending any future restructures. You can only amortize over 5 seasons, so his deal would then be similar to Mankins with that empty all salary season at the end of the road.

 

[aluminum seats]

Sorry, but you cannot make a statistically based argument for things like the run game or pass protection based upon 1 OL and act as if that reflects their individual play.

Well....that seems a little glib. Yes, there are five guys on the line, but you can certainly analyze how the line performs and extrapolate some things from that.