For the 2013 season, here are some names and numbers to consider:
K Stephen Gostkowski:
- 2013 cap figure: $3,400,000
- cap savings if cut: $1,800,000
- dead money if cut: $1,600,000
OL Dan Connolly:
- 2013 cap figure: $3,333,333
- cap savings if cut: $1,166,666
- dead money if cut: $2,166,667
TE Daniel Fells:
- 2013 cap figure: $1,658,333
- cap savings if cut: $991,166
- dead money if cut: $666,667
ST Matthew Slater:
- 2013 cap figure: $2,266,666
- cap savings if cut: $933,332
- dead money if cut: $1,333,334
C Ryan Wendell:
- 2013 cap figure: $1,015,000
- cap savings if cut: $865,000
- dead money if cut: $150,000
DT Kyle Love:
- 2013 cap figure: $1,100,000
- cap savings if cut: $850,000
- dead money if cut: $250,000
FB Spencer Larsen:
- 2013 cap figure: $875,000
- cap savings if cut: $750,000
- dead money if cut: $125,000
DE Jermaine Cunningham:
- 2013 cap figure: $960,000
- cap savings if cut: $630,000
- dead money if cut: $330,000
DL Brandon Deaderick:
- 2013 cap figure: $640,075
- cap savings if cut: $630,000
- dead money if cut: $10,075
DE Marcus Benard:
- 2013 cap figure: $630,000
- cap savings if cut: $630,000
- dead money if cut: -0-
OL Nick McDonald:
- 2013 cap figure: $630,000
- cap savings if cut: $630,000
- dead money if cut: -0-
S Steve Gregory:
- 2013 cap figure: $2,183,333
- cap savings if cut: $516,666
- dead money if cut: $1,666,667
I think you also need to look at 2014. Here's a few thoughts along the lines of your post:
1. S Steve Gregory.
- Why cut him: He's not really a starter, and with McCourty playing the FS role he's not physical enough for what we need. He's a quality backup, but at a cap hit of $2.183M in 2013 and a whopping $3.18M in 2014 he's overpriced for his role. Also, if we sign or draft another safety, we have a roster crunch with 5 players at the position (McCourty, Gregory, Wilson, Ebner plus the new guy), which may be more than we can carry, so someone may have to go. Wilson and Ebner have more potential and upside. Cutting or trading him saves $0.5M this year and $2.35M in 2014 (I really can't see him lasting beyond this year given his cap hit and the potential savings).
- Why he might stick: a proven veteran presence with good versatility, if we can't find anyone better at reasonable cost in FA.
- Would he have any trade value: probably not, but maybe we good get a late round pick for him as a proven veteran from a team needing safety depth.
2. OG Dan Connolly.
- Why cut him: He's on the wrong side of 30 and had injury problems. He was arguably outplayed by Donald Thomas in 2012, who could be signed for much cheaper. The Pats probably overpaid him, with a cap hit of $3.3M in 2013 and $4M in 2014, which seems high. Cutting him would save $1.16M this year and $3M in 2014.
- Why he might stick: we're think for starting interior linemen, and he's got good positional versatility at guard and center.
- I think the Pats might try and get Connolly to agree to a pay cut or restructure. If they can re-sign Donald Thomas then they have good depth with Thomas, Wendell and Nick McDonald, plus possibly a rookie, which would make Connolly expendable if he's not willing to take a cut.
3. TE Dan Fells
- Why cut him: He was way down the depth chart in 2012, getting bumped by Michael Hoomanawanui, and didn't play anywhere up to his contract. He has a cap hit of $1.66M in 2013 and $2.18M in 2014. Cutting/trading him would save almost $1M this year and $1.85M in 2014. Jake Ballard is a cheaper and probably better replacement (assuming he is healthy), and Michael Hoomanawanui is a RFA and can be signed for less than what cutting Fells would save.
- Why keep him: you can never have too much depth at TE.
- Would he have any trade value: probably not, though maybe we could dupe someone out of a late round pick. He was a decent starter not long ago and is still under 30.
4. K Stephen Gostkowski
- Why cut him: He's due to make premium kicker money in the next 2 years: $3.4M cap hit in 2013 and $3.8M in 2014. That's a lot. While he's good, is he that good? Teams have succeeded recently with rookie kickers. Cutting him would save $1.8M in 2013 and $3M in 2014.
- Why he might stick: he's a proven commodity, he has a big leg, he's good on kickoffs and gets good lift.
- Like Connolly, I think the Pats might try to get Gostkowski to restructure or agree to a pay cut, with the threat of cutting him. They certainly may consider bringing in some competition in training camp. I have a hard time seeing him stick around for 2014 at $3.8M with a savings of $3M unless things drastically change.
Those are the 4 most likely guys. There's always the big money guys who could restructure with extensions, like Brady and Wilfork. The Pats may be able to save some money by converting some of Mankins' bonus money - I'm not enough of a capologist to tackle that one. I don't think Brandon Lloiyd is a candidate - cutting him leaves a huge amount of dead money without a replacement, and he's old enough that I can't see tacking on more years as part of an extension being an option.
Slater is interesting. He has a cap hit of $2.26M this year and almost $2M next year, which is a lot for a STer. But he's been All Pro the past several years, and BB loves him. Maybe he gets an extension with a little cap relief. I can't see him getting cut. It would save about $1M this year and $1.3M next.
I'm not including guys like Larsen, Bernard, McDonald, Cunningham, etc. They're easy. They don't save a ton of money, and they don't have much if any dead money hit. They are either good low cost additions to the roster if they make the team, or small savings if they don't make the team. It's unlikely, for example, that both Cunningham and Benard make the team, so either way we'll save around $630K. Not much, but enough to afford one low budget signing.
The Pats could probably free up $3-4M in 2013 by cutting/trading Gregory and Fells and restructuring or cutting the salaries of Gostkowski and Connolly. I'm guessing all 4 are gone in 2014, which would save $10.2M. That latter number is enough to pay for a decent starting safety, Donald Thomas, Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui, and a kicker.
