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Where Should Hernandez Fit In?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Oct 13, 2012.

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  1. Joker

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    this sounds suspiciously like the madam at the Chicken Ranch out in Nevada...
     
  2. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I have no problem with your numbers. I certainly hope that Branch/Edelman are limited to 25% of the offensive reps. My only nitpick is that I think that 30% for Fells is a bit high.

    This board will go bonkers if Welker is on the field only 75% of the time. As was discussed when Hernandez was injured, Welker's reps are reduced with Hernandez taking many of his reps in the slot. Your answer is about 25% of those reps. You seem to know of a plan to reduce Welker's reps to save him for later in the season. I'm not sure that Welker needs this treatment anymore than Lloyd or Hernandez. Given Gronk's blocking, he needs to be on the field 100% of the time, as befits offensive linemen.

    I did not state what I wanted to do. I stated that I would expect us to run the 3 WR set 40% of the time a reduction of the 60% last week. The open question is how many WR reps Hernandez will get.

    Since you have Fells taking about 1/2 of the 2 TE reps, Hernandez would be in at WR a considerable number of times. Perhaps you believe that we will run the 3 WR set less than 40% of the time.

     
  3. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    Why are we asking where should hernandez fit in? he fits in where he always has since he has been here...


    This isn't like a new FA signing
     
  4. stcjones

    stcjones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    He will "Fit in" exactly where BB wants him to "Fit in." Would expect he will be in there sparingly this week....no use jeapordizing his future health by putting him in the backfield or overutilizing the guy. BB knows best and will utilize him accordingly

     
  5. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    I couldn't agree more with the thought that the game plan was/is to keep Welker fresher, limit his hits and injuries, and utilize some of the other aspects more (such as Edelman at times, the run game, Llyod, the TE's of course) to help the offense become more balanced.

    I also think that something around 75-80% is perfect for Welker's snap count in most games.

    Strangely enough, his average snap count percentage in the first 2 games was 71%, when everyone was having a *****fit about him "being limited" and held back by Belichick and McDaniels.
     
  6. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    I sort of wondered the same exact thing.
     
  7. Reckedtrek

    Reckedtrek 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #95 Jersey

    Gronk has had health issues (hip) the last 2 weeks or so. You guys think they'll still play him 100% of the snaps?
     
  8. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    That's a good point. I suppose it will obviously depend on the severity of that injury, whether or not it has progressed or not, etc.

    That's why Billy B. gets paid the big bucks, right? ;)
     
  9. Joker

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    ...I couldn't possibly fit him in until Monday at the earliest...it's just utter chaos down here at the moment....

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Fencer

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    #12 Jersey

    One of the big points of the Pats' offense is that a 2 TE set can become a 3 WR set just by moving Hernandez around, meaning that the defense can't both defend a 2 TE set and a 3 WR set with their preferred personnel in the respective scenarios.
     
  11. AndyJohnson

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    We will run 3 WRs WAY WAY WAY less than 40% of the time.
     
  12. NordicVoyager

    NordicVoyager Practice Squad Player

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    I think there is a more interesting question that how often will 3 WR be used. That is what percentage of the plays will the Pats use 3 TE? I could see as many as 25 plays together for Gronk, Fells and Hernandez with half being runs and the other half passes. My guess is that Hernandez gets 6-8 targeted passes.
     
  13. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    It's nice to see Belichick's vision of having 3 competant TE's at the same time come true so far, as it has helped with a much more physical approach, and obviously in the running game too. Not only that, but it made a whole lot of people forget about the name (whispers "Brian Waters") as it improved the effectiveness of the line which protects Tom Brady.

    Last season, everyone was amazed at the use of the multiple TE sets, but apparently Belichick wanted to take it even one step further with the 3 TE idea and its usage in many more games. In last year's 2011 SB appearance season, we only had 3 TE's active in the same game 5/19 times, or roughly one-quarter of the total games.

    This year things seem to be a lot different. I wonder if he didn't take the more physical defensive schedule such as BAL, ARZ, SF, STL, SEA, and HOU into account too? Thus proving that all of the "easy schedule" talk was nothing more than noise to ignore...
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2012
  14. UK_Pat37

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    #12 Jersey

    Hernandez hasn't finished a practice all week.

    We could be debating whether or not he suits up as much as how he factors in to this game. My betting is that, if he does play, he'll be monitored very closely and will probably be on a snap count.

    When he does return, just look at previous trends as to how they will use them

    The 3WR sets will rarely be touched and a fully healthy Gronk and Hernandez will see the field at least 90% of the time together, so you can bet safely on 3WR Sets getting no more than about 10% usage. We already know this, so why is the question being asked?
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2012
  15. convertedpatsfan

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    #12 Jersey

    This.

    The flexibility of the personnel lets us move into all sorts of different formations.

    Consider in week 1 when Hernandez was healthy, we ran every single snap with 2 TEs on the field. The 3 WR package was only run on 7 of 67 snaps, and all 7 of those snaps included 2 TEs.

    Hernandez should play as much as possible, and is a much better option than any 3rd WR we currently have.
     
  16. Jimke

    Jimke In the Starting Line-Up

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    The Patriots will use Hernandez's bulk (245 lbs.) to counter
    Seattle's big defensive backs.
     
  17. ctpatsfan77

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    #3 Jersey

    I'm not quite sure what you mean here, but all I'm trying to say is this: The only reason that GRONK is able to stay on the field for nearly every down is that he's not running downfield on every single play.
     
  18. Deus Irae

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    The running game is putting up 200 plus yards with Welker in there. I'd say that the whole "better blocker" thing has been about as thoroughly debunked as possible.
     
  19. Deus Irae

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    You and I were discussing this in another thread. I think I suggested something along the lines of

    90% Gronk
    90% Lloyd
    90% Welker
    90% Hernandez
    That would leave about 40% of the snaps for Edelman/Branch and the TEs to split, plus any time that might come from a personnel package without a true RB.

    That still works for me, and you can fudge some of that 5%+/-.
     
  20. Brady_to_Moss

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    #95 Jersey

    Should i start hernandez in my fantasy league? His role will be limited..but is he better than scott chandler of buffalo?
     
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