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Where is the value in the late 3rd and 4th?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mgteich, Mar 13, 2007.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This assessment could change how we view the first round, at least it should.
    For example, if we believe that there will be many db prospects, especially safeties in the 3rd and 4th, then we can pass on a safety in the first. Ditto for ILB.
  2. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    This is an unusual year . I think that there are four, FOUR, 4, ILBs that can play in the Patriots scheme this draft. Usually there are none. Willis might not be there at 24, but the other three will, and only DeOssie will make the third round. I'd take a pair in the first or trade down in the second to take the second and then take a DB later.
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2007
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't believe there is a "value" spot in the draft for ILB. I'm on record saying there are interesting Safeties who will go undrafted. Of Murphy's top five in the thread Seneschal2 started, only Weddel appeals to me, and part of that is being a second rounder.
  4. Canada's #1 Pats Fan

    Canada's #1 Pats Fan Rookie

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    Of the 4, you list only Willis and Deossie. Who are the other 2 so that I can research them, please.
  5. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Huh, I count 5! Willis, Harris, Siler, Bradley and DeOssie. Is Bradley off your list?

    When it comes to safety and ILB, we could make good use of two of each. So even if it's David Harris in the 1st it could still be DeOssie in the 3rd, if he lasts that long. (Plus DeOssie is a potential OLB, too.) And I'd much, much rather have Eric Weddle AND Will Gulley than just Reggie nelson.
  6. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    My number 1 is David Harris of Michigan 6'2.5" 245# 4.55 who I like as much or more for an ILB, than Patrick Willis Ole Miss 6-2 240 4.50 who is a MLB candidate as well as a ILB.

    Paul Posluzny PSU 6'1.5" 238 4.65 is the safe pick in the first. He will play in the NFL but may not ever be anything but a red chip, very good player.

    Zak DeOssie BU 6-4 250# 4.57 may turn out in three years to be better than all the others but he could bust too. I position in the third round to take him, if there was only one LB drafted before him. He can play both ILB and OLB so he is a two-fer, Mike Vrabel kind of guy...

    In addition to size & speed, these four all have smarts, LB instincts and anticipation, which is critical for a good LB.

    They all can follow Tedy's description of LB play "... I just go to where the hole IS GOING TO BE, and tackle the guy when he gets there..."
  7. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Instincts (you know where the play is going) are great for LBs and most coaches covet guys that have it.

    Anticipation (you think you know where the play is going) is guessing and defensive players that guess too much and get it wrong don't last long. [For defensive players that guess and get it right all/most the time, see above under instincts]

    My old coach used to tell us that instincts are for defensive players and anticipation is for offensive players.
  8. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    DeOssie will probably be a 5th rounder or so. Brown University? Really good competition there. Hard to study game film when he's taking on 250 pound oL-men.
  9. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    The value at safety is really in late round 1, the value at cornerback can be found in round 3. There is also ILB value in the 3rd round.
  10. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    You are so full of garbage.

    DeOssie will go 3rd round, 4th at the lowest.
  11. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    3rd round for an Ivy leaguer? That's difficult to imagine. I thought the 6th round was a bit high for him.

    What are you basing the third round on? ST play? A move to OLB? I'm curious why you think 3rd round?
  12. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    I don't want to speak for DaBruinz, but I have DeOssie as a third rounder based on the scarcity of players like him in the draft. Once Harris goes off the board, I see exactly two players who can man the ILB slots, DeOssie and Bradley. After that, you get to question marks like Bishop (size, instincts), Waters (injury), Culbertson, and Mitchell (character).

    With Cleveland, Hempstead, San Francisco, and Dallas also running a 3-4 full time, and San Diego, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh probably playing it part-time, DeOssie should be highly coveted. Throw in special teams ability and pedigree, and I'll be stunned if he makes it to the second day.
  13. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    I would take DeOssie in the 3rd without having too much doubt. He's got prototypical size/speed for our system, good pedigree, good instincts, and was defensive leader of his football team. BB knows all about this kid's character from personal knowledge. Kid also can play inside or outside. In other words a Vrabel type of player. Those kinds of guys have value for the Pats so for our system a 3rd rounder is not too high for DeOssie. Another team might have him rated different, but who cares about what other teams think?

    PS Thanks for the kudos on the kids ST ability dryheat. I almost forgot another great selling point - the kid can LONGSNAP!! Not a big deal on the surface but how many years have we spent a roster spot on a dedicated longsnapper??
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2007
  14. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    value in the 3rd/4th round could be

    Waters LB Clemson
    Weddle S Utah
    Wendling S Wyoming
    Piscatelli S Oregon State (or Oregon forgot which)
    AJ Davis CB NC State
    Dwayne Wright RB Fresno State
    Johnny Lee Higgins WR UTEP
    Josh Wilson CB Maryland
    Stewart Bradley OLB Nebraska (although someone said he could play ILB he is kind of tall and thin, IIRC)
    David Harris ILB Michigan
  15. Handel

    Handel Rookie

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    Agree in general, but David Harris is gone in round 2.
  16. SamBamsFan

    SamBamsFan Rookie

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    I believe that Weddle, Wilson & Harris will be long gone by pick 91. Dwayne Wright is a 5th rounder IMO.
  17. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Waters? As far as I know he wasn't ready to run at the Combine and did not participate in the Clemson Pro-Day. He bought himself another month (4/3) to get himself ready to be able to run the 40, the cone and shuttle drills as well as the long jump and broad jump.

    Yes, I understand that he was being touted as a potential 1st rounder prior to his ACL tear. However, it was a severe tear and he may not be ready for his private workout. He's a late 2nd day pick right now because of his injury status.

    Except for Davis, Piscatell, Wright, and Wendling, your list has guys who are ALL Day 1 picks and probably top 2 rounds.
  18. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It is a tough crowd, people are a bit feisty, I like it.

    The picks in rounds 3 & 4 will have a big impact on the Patriots overall draft class. Down the road the Round 1 picks should result in two adequate to very good starters and maybe even a pro bowl if we get lucky. The day 2 picks in rounds 6 & 7 are 50/50 to make the roster so rounds 3&4 become important.

    I took a quick look and broke it down by position. Looking for players whose are sliding, are relative unknowns or may be better pros than college players. I tried to leave out guys I thought were appropriately slotted in rounds 3 or 4 or could be picked up in round 5 or 6.

    All players listed by unit in descending order of value (high value, least likely to be available at top of each group). All data from NFL Draft Scout.

    RB
    Pittman, *Antonio Ohio State 2-3 5-11 207 4.40
    Booker, Lorenzo Florida State 3 5-11 191 4.46
    Wynn, DeShawn Florida 3-4 5-11 232 4.47

    WR
    Higgins, Johnnie Lee Texas-El Paso 2-3 6-0 186 4.48
    Allison, Aundrae East Carolina 3 6-0 198 4.39
    Williams, Paul Fresno State 4 6-1 205 4.45 - big bust potential but has all the tools
    Walker, Mike Central Florida 4 6-2 209 4.35

    OT
    Yanda, Marshall Iowa 2-3 6-4 307 5.12
    Free, Doug Northern Illinois 3 6-6 324 5.19
    Marten, James Boston College 3 6-8 309 5.08

    OG
    Ramirez, Manuel Texas Tech 2-3 6-3 326 5.24
    Alleman, Andy Akron 3 6-4 305 5.07

    DE
    Woodley, LaMarr Michigan 2 6-2 266 4.68 - falling fast
    Alama-Francis, Ikaika Hawaii 2 6-5 280 4.78 - falling, coming off injury
    Moses, Quentin Georgia 2-3 6-5 261 - falling fast
    Abiamiri, Victor Notre Dame 3 6-4 267 - I don't think he can play OLB in a 3-4 but could be considered good value
    Bazuin, Dan Central Michigan 3 6-3 266 - I don't think he can play OLB in a 3-4 but could be considered good value
    Atkins, Baraka Miami 3-4 6-5 271 4.69 - I think him, huge potential, good play OLB in limited snaps

    DT
    McBride, Turk Tennessee 2-3 6-3 277 4.81 - could play 3-4 end
    Thomas, Marcus Florida 3 6-3 314 4.96 - would be a steal at 91, not a perfect fit at DE or DT but could take quality snaps at either position
    Pit****, Quinn Ohio State 3-4 6-3 299 4.93 - not a great fit but wasn't he one the top rated DTs? how the mighty have fallen
    Brown, Kareem Miami 4-5 6-4 290 - boom or bust, slow 40 time but plays fast, may be hard to coach - above average starting potential

    ILB
    - none, unless Harris or Bradley falls the rest of them are placed appropriately (Davis, Blades, deOssie all look like 3rd or 4th rounders)

    OLB
    Shaw, Tim Penn State 3-4 6-2 236 4.51 - a bit under rated, might be able to slide inside
    Everett, Earl Florida 3-4 6-3 238 4.73 - falling fast, could play inside

    FS
    Gattis, Josh Wake Forest 2-3 6-1 206 4.51 - unlikely to fall
    Jackson, Tanard Syracuse 3 6-0 200 4.52 - kind of a CB/SS/FS hybird, good player to have on the roster (younger Chad Scott)

    SS
    Weddle, Eric Utah 2-3 5-11 203 4.48 - level of competition is a concern
    Piscitelli, Sabby Oregon State 4-5 6-3 224 4.47 - listed in range 4-5 , seems like good value in round 4

    CB
    Irons, David Auburn 2-3 5-10 190 4.44 - unlikely to fall
    Wilson, Josh Maryland 2-3 5-09 189 4.39 - unlikely to fall
    Brown, Tarell Texas 2-3 5-11 190 4.45 - may fall, off field issues
    Davis, A.J. North Carolina State 3 5-10 193 4.44
    Scott, Kenny Georgia Tech 3-4 6-1 179 4.39 - skinny but has faced good SEC competition , good value in round 4
    Bain, Travarous Hampton 4 6-0 182 4.43 - skinny like Samuel but has natural ability, good value in round 4
    Young, Usama Kent State 7-FA 5-11 196 4.40 - riser of the day, could be on the cusp of day 1 by draft day, could be good value in round 4
  19. SamBamsFan

    SamBamsFan Rookie

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    Nice list. I'd tweak it, but that would just be me splitting hairs. A name you didn't include in my opinion is Jay Moore who I have thought of as a situational DE to be groomed as OLB. His college career and talents remind me of Vrabel (and really, if he winds up to be Vrabel lite, is that such a bad thing?).
  20. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I had my eye on him after some of the post season games but he was very slow at the combine. I have him behind Robison from Texas who I view as a solid round 4 player but not an outstanding value, I see Moore as an ok round 5 pick (I think we will get a 5 in the comps) but he is nothing special, a Mincey type player, maybe a little better.
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