CAR - 50% chance -- If they still had their #33, this would be close to a no-brainer - Fairley at #1, QB at #33. As it stands, who knows? I have my doubts that Rivera would go for Newton if he takes a QB. Gabbert, Locker, Ponder or Mallet seem more reasonable fits. No idea what pressure might be coming from ownership/FO, though.
DEN - 0% -- No reason to go QB over defense, really.
BUF - 20% -- I think they're sticking with Fitzpatrick and will go for front seven help. We might think it's a mistake, but it also may be the way they go nevertheless.
CIN - 80% -- I Carson Palmer really, truly IS done there, they almost HAVE to go for a QB. Again, it seems to me like the odds are against Newton. But it's Jay Gruden in the OC seat now, so who knows? Also, their owner seems like the kind of guy who might take this moment to "force" a particular pick.
ARZ - 40% -- A lot of folks think they desperately need a QB, but I have my doubts that the Cards feel the same. They seem to have a lot of other needs that could be just as well met later in the first (enough that they'll probably be back picking in the top five in 2012 regardless). Good chance, IMHO, they'll try to trade down - possibly to a team that feels they need a QB - IF two QBs are gone by this point.
CLE - 0% -- No.
SF - 30% -- Harbaugh says he's sticking with Alex Smith. They could use DT/NT and a few other things. Unlike the Panthers, they do have a second rounder (#45). Also, Newton doesn't seem right for Harbaugh.
TEN - 50% -- Seems like they would if VY is gone and the ancient-but-venerable Collins is their "starter". OTOH, they have Rusty Smith (who the Pats looked at a lot last year) and Brett Ratliff (who might actually be decent if given a shot). Not as certain as most people think. After their VY 1.0 experience, something tells me they won't go for VY 2.0.
DAL - 0% -- No.
WAS - 50% -- Doesn't seem like they'd think Rex Grossman is their QBOTF. Still, seems to me they could go NT here and draft a QB in the 2nd or trade for somebody. I don't know that Shanahan would be entirely comfortable with Newton, though Snyder might be (if they go QB at all).
HOU - 0%
MIN - 50% -- Another team that could go D-line here and QB in the 2nd. And, again, Newton doesn't seem like a great fit when they already have Joe Webb.
DET - 0% -- However, they'll probably let Stanton walk in FA (whenever that happens). Stanton will then emerge as a very good starter elsewhere while Stafford's body disintegrates with yet more injuries. Because that's just the way things usually go for the Lions.
STL - 0%
MIA - 50% -- No 2nd rounder to fall back on if they don't go QB here. OTOH, by my last count, their non-FA RB corps consists of (FB) Lousaka Polite, (FB) Deon Anderson and Clifton Smith. I know there's been some backlash against the "common wisdom" that they take Ingram here, but it does have to be very tempting for them. OTOH (part deux), ownership wants fannies in the seats. Newton could be just as tempting.
JAX - 50% -- The odd thing is that, though they need help in other areas, they actually could make a grab here for Cam Newton to work behind Garrard. But, they have later picks, too.
That's my take on "QB need/likelihood" for the first 16 picks. After our pick at #17, it seems like only SEA would have any chance at taking a QB - maybe 30%.
