Where are the Turnovers and 3rd Down D ?

[Box_O_Rocks]

Since the NFL banned pass defense, it's pretty much impossible to stop many of those 3rd down possession plays.

Remember, the game changed after the 2003 season. Defensive players can't even look at a receiver wrong once they've left the line of scrimmage. Those slant patterns used to be physical contests with the receiver and defender actually playing football and jockying for position. Now, the only way to defend it is to jump the route -- a sure fire recipe for giving up big play touchdowns.

It is what it is. The name of the game now is to keep those receptions in front of the defense. The rules are the same for both teams. It's pretty much impossible for the other team to stop Brady from completing a 5 yard out or 5 yard slant, too.

Poor NEM, such a slanted world view. Congrats on 1,000 hwc! :eat3:

 

[R_T26]

The passing rules dont seem to be effecting other teams w/ turnovers. When we had law the Pats could rely on one part of the field being shutdown, therefore were able to put more pressure. But last week for example the Pats sent the house on 3rd down, but a coup[le of missed tackles and coles goes in for the TD. Its a matter of the players making the plays.

 

[hwc]

When we had law the Pats could rely on one part of the field being shutdown, therefore were able to put more pressure.

That is selective memory. Bill Belichick has never been a believer in blitz pressure as a base defense. If you watch his coaching carefully, his number one principle is to keep the play in front of the defense, prevent big plays, and force the other team to drive the length of the field, 10 yards at a time. The Pats have never been a big blitzing team. You are forgetting all the times Law bellyached about having to play zone coverage and not being allowed to freelance.

You are remembering big plays in particular down and distance situations and extrapolating those to the overall defensive scheme. But, that's just not the way it was. The 2001 Pats "bend but don't break" defense allowed teams to march up and down the field, almost at will. Inside the 20, you no longer have to protect against the deep ball, so Belichick would start bringing the heat. Those are the turnovers you remember. He still does that. You didn't see it against the Jets because they were almost never in the red zone.

Also, I have noticed that Belichick consistently starts seasons more conservatively on defense and turns up the heat as the season progresses and his defense can handle it. Perhaps the key to Belichick's coaching success is that he understands every year is a new team and every season a dynamic process starting in week one and building to a championship contender team in December. Enjoy it as a process. As long as the Pats are winning games now (ugly, pretty, or in between), count your blessings. If we can split the next two games and finish the opening quarter of the season at 3-1, things will be looking good.

Pay more attention to the building blocks as they (hopefully) fall into place. For example, the ability of the Pats three-headed rotation to run the ball is a huge building block. Likewise, that three TE set with Graham, Watson, and Thomas is a building block. Getting Jackson involved in the passing game is a building block. Effective production from Seau is a building block. Show me a team that is a finished product in September and I'll show you team that is going nowhere in the playoffs.

 

[LA Pats Fan]

I would Say a

SAFETY should be considered a BIG defensive play.

It doesn show up in the stats

 

[Poll]

The problem as I see it is we have switched from a stong DB backfield in 2000-2004 to a strong Front seven 2003-2006. Notice that our two cross over years are when we were the strongest. Through injuries and not wanting/being able to resign our backfield has turned into a small quick group of zone cover type backs. Whether this is by design or not I am not sure. BB may think that the price you now have to pay for good cover corners is not worth the benefit you get from them. But he will always pay for a good front seven as they protect vs run and pass (through pressure), while cover corners only help vs a few recievers. You will notice though that the type of play this small group help eliminate is the long catch. Huge chunks of yards is something BB hates to give up, and will take his chances with what happens most now, and that is passes short and to the flat. These do have a good success rate on 3rd down if you can't get to the QB quickly and if you do not have strong DBs that can check at the line. The zone coverage will also take away INT chances because most of those are thrown deep and we are covering well enough that not alot of QBs are throwing deep. There were a bunch of fumbles in the Bills game, but they picked them all up lol.

IMHO

Nice analysis.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

Nice Post, HWC!

The only thing that you left out as far as keeping the offense in front of you and preventing big plays is the part about BEATING THE SNOT out of WRs every time they catch the ball.

This is what seems to really be missing on our defense. Rodney has yet to lay anybody out like the old days, or the Milloy days for that matter. Geno is still struggling, IMO. Samuels at least is able to lay some wood and get people out of bounds, but he is not causing WRs to have their head on a swivel. Hobbs is doing his job, but I don't think he is striking fear into anybody's heart either.

Go back to the Giants-Bills superbowl, and Belichick was recorded as saying 'Keep hammering those WRs, I want you to hammer them when they catch the ball.'

Until Rodney is 100%, we may have to do without the physical secondary play that has been a trademark of Belichick defenses.

We are not wearing out the WRs or TEs when we tackle them.



Overall, I think the defense will probably tighten up and be pretty good. If Brady can learn the names of all his new WRs, we'll be okay.

 

[captain stone]

+/- Turnovers for Patriots

2003 = + 17
2004 = +9
2005 = -6
2006 = -3

3rd % (Conversions Allowed) for Patriots

2003 = 34.5 %
2004 = 38.8 %
2005 = 42 %
2006 = 48.3 %

(stats from nfl.com)

Anyone notice a problem here ? While the defense is off to a pretty good start as far as run D and getting sacks, the downward trend continues for making big plays on Defense. Turnovers and making stops on 3rd down are the definition of making big plays on Defense.

The D is, and probably will always be solid as long as Belichick is here, but the big game changing plays that were the hallmark of the championship teams seem to have gone missing.

Specifcally the problem seems to be in the defensive backfield as the Patriots are near the top of the league this year in rushing 3rd down conversions and rushing yards allowed. Those 3rd downs are being converted by passing. The Patriots are near the top of the league in sacks so pressure is not the problem.

The Patriots are not causing fumbles or INT's, and turnovers more than anything can determine the outcome of successfull team.

Is this a result of losing Romeo Crennel and personnel changes ? The Patriots D better get this fixed quick as this deficiency has yet to rear it's head, but the long term trend is not good.

I am optimistic about this years team but these stats set off a reason for concern. Maybe the ball just isn't bouncing the right way.

Some possible answers, in no particular order of importance:

No Romeo Crennel

No Ty Law

The inexplicable decline of Eugene Wilson (what the hell has happened to this guy?)

The loss and recovery of Rodney Harrison

Aside from Wilson, Samuel, Hobbs and (possibly) Sanders, no other quality DBs drafted in 7 years

No DBs coach since Mangini became DC in '05

No other big-bodied, big-hitting, TO-causing SS-types, besides Rodney (folks, Artrell Hawkins is not a SS, m'kay?)

A unit-wide amnesia concerning proper tackling technique (incl.: 1st guy wraps up, 2nd guy goes for the TO)

Have all, or even any, of these contributed to the poor TO differential? Maybe. I agree that safeties and 4th down stops should count as TOs. I also agree that this is a 1 year, 2 week trend. TOs may not have been needed to defeat the Bills and Jest, but they probably will be needed to defeat the Donkeys and Bungles. They certainly wouldn't hurt.

 

[PatsFan37]

That is selective memory. Bill Belichick has never been a believer in blitz pressure as a base defense. If you watch his coaching carefully, his number one principle is to keep the play in front of the defense, prevent big plays, and force the other team to drive the length of the field, 10 yards at a time. The Pats have never been a big blitzing team.

While I think you're right in general, IIRC the two big plays in the Jets offensive game came during 3rd and long blitzes -- the immaculate reception (Cotchery) and the immaculate run (Coles). Both times heavy pressure and Pennington responded with excellent passes. Got to hand it to the guy, he looked like Brady in those two moments and his receivers really came through for him.

Pees was sitting on a lead and was looking for a big 3rd down stop and instead, twice, gave the Jets 7 points. Was this a failure to get pressure quickly enough? Or a failure in the secondary? My feeling is the Jets rose to the occasion both times, but I would rather not see the blitz again.

It wasn't the bend-but-don't-break defense that I prefer to see, that is, take away the +10 yd plays and force them to dink their way up the field, counting on time and statistics to work against them.

My feeling is TO's and 3rd-down-stops come from a strong 4-man rush and good coverage. It may simply be difficult to do against Pennington and Coles.