When Brady retires....

[RobertWeathers]

Cassel was probably a one year wonder who was QB for a team just a few months removed from 18-1

I have no idea on how he made the pro bowl this year...I doubt his stats were worthy.

He threw 27 TDs and only 7 picks for a playoff team that in 2010 was expected to do absolutely nothing.

He would not have been in had Brady not broken his foot. Who else in the AFC had a better individual season that was not chosen over MC? Maybe Flacco or Schaub but it's not clear cut.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Felger actually said they should use one of the 1st round picks in the upcoming draft for TB's successor, of course he wanted the Pats to take Tebow last year.
Like Mo says we have Hoyer now unless someone beats him out and BB will draft QB's late in the draft that he can mold into what he wants. The day Tom retires the QB will be on the roster and ready.

Felger also believed that Palmer was a better bet than Brady going forward in 2006...

He was right about Moss, but that was more of a blind angry squirrel kind of thing...

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Cassel? No way.

They will continue to take occasional late-round fliers on QBs.

Note: one thing I can assure you of...the next QB will be MOBILE. The last two QBs they drafted were and I have to assume that successor to the king will be also.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Cassel? No way.

They will continue to take occasional late-round fliers on QBs.

Note: one thing I can assure you of...the next QB will be MOBILE. The last two QBs they drafted were and I have to assume that successor to the king will be also.

The more mobile ones aren't here anymore. They want the guy who can read defenses and remain poised in the pocket and run this offense and only use his legs on rare occasions. They don't want a scrambler because they tend to revert to that norm under pressure.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

The more mobile ones aren't here anymore. They want the guy who can read defenses and remain poised in the pocket and run this offense and only use his legs on rare occasions. They don't want a scrambler because they tend to revert to that norm under pressure.

Ah but look at the last two draftees; they were mobile. Now I should clarify what I mean by mobile; ability to move around in the pocket to avoid the rush.

The Patriots definitely want mobile; look at Cassel and O'Connell.

The wonder if the day of the statues are dwindling...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Ah but look at the last two draftees; they were mobile. Now I should clarify what I mean by mobile; ability to move around in the pocket to avoid the rush.

The Patriots definitely want mobile; look at Cassel and O'Connell.

The wonder if the day of the statues are dwindling...

KOC didn't last past year 1. Gutierrez didn't last much longer in part because they failed to develop the traits that really matter here and tried to rely on their mobility.

 

[Glorystomper]

I want the Pats to pick up Andy Dalton!!!

 

[JoeSixPat]

I know there is still years left in him but when he does retire would any of you consider trading for Cassel ? He played well when he was here.

Or would you pick up a QB in the draft ?

Belichick always drafts QBs - some he hopes turn into tradeable commodities and valuable backups, like Cassel, but that's rare. It comes down to volume - you don't "just pick" your next QB in a draft - it's "volume volume volume" in terms of drafting QBs til you find one that's the real deal

Even with Tom Brady in for the long term Belichick has used a 3rd rounder on a QB so as Brady is a few years older now, I wouldn't be shocked to see a higher pick used at QB

Ryan Mallett’s off field issues -whatever they truly are - is causing his stock to drop out of the first round... maybe even out of the 2nd. That might make him a major value pick for a team with 6 picks in the first 3 roudns. His college numbers are impressive and he's got size and strength - he could also be the next Ryan Leaf.

But that might make the Patriots, playing alongside Brady, out of the spotlight and pressure, the perfect place for him to develop - as opposed to the pressure cooker that Leaf and other rookie QBs can be thrown into.

Regardless - it wouldn't surprise me to see them take a QB high in the draft (1st 3 rounds) this year especially.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Belichick always drafts QBs - some he hopes turn into tradeable commodities and valuable backups, like Cassel, but that's rare. It comes down to volume - you don't "just pick" your next QB in a draft - it's "volume volume volume" in terms of drafting QBs til you find one that's the real deal

Even with Tom Brady in for the long term Belichick has used a 3rd rounder on a QB so as Brady is a few years older now, I wouldn't be shocked to see a higher pick used at QB

Ryan Mallett’s off field issues -whatever they truly are - is causing his stock to drop out of the first round... maybe even out of the 2nd. That might make him a major value pick for a team with 6 picks in the first 3 roudns. His college numbers are impressive and he's got size and strength - he could also be the next Ryan Leaf.

But that might make the Patriots, playing alongside Brady, out of the spotlight and pressure, the perfect place for him to develop - as opposed to the pressure cooker that Leaf and other rookie QBs can be thrown into.

Regardless - it wouldn't surprise me to see them take a QB high in the draft (1st 3 rounds) this year especially.

This year of all years I'd be stunned to see them do that, especially the way KOC washed out and got run over by an UDFA. At that level you need to draft a player who should be viable at least as a backup if not in your system at least in someones...and fourth string on the JETS doesn't count as viable. Even our 3rd rounders are too valuable in a shallow draft as trading chips to move up to secure the players we truly need or to insure we have multiple seconds in 2012. Forget about wasting any of the higher picks on a player who may never see the field here... That's what foolish teams like the Dolphins do...

Hoyer is signed through 2011 and due to be an RFA in 2012. So I think we certainly should consider drafting a QB in the latter rounds if in fact one like McElroy is available in the 4th or later. Unless we have a target QB in mind no one's talking up who is unlikely to be drafted like a Hoyer... But the first 100 picks in a shallow draft are too valuable to waste on a player who will have a hard time ever seeing the field here. We're looking to replace the backup, not the starter at this juncture...

 

[ivanvamp]

Ah but look at the last two draftees; they were mobile. Now I should clarify what I mean by mobile; ability to move around in the pocket to avoid the rush.

The Patriots definitely want mobile; look at Cassel and O'Connell.

The wonder if the day of the statues are dwindling...

New England Patriots - times their QB was sacked
2004 - 26
2005 - 28 (Brady 26, Flutie 1, Davey 1)
2006 - 29 (Brady 26, Cassel 3)
2007 - 21
2008 - 48 (Cassel 47, O'Connell 1)
2009 - 18 (Brady 16, Hoyer 2)
2010 - 25

Tom Brady - times he was sacked
2004 - 26
2005 - 26
2006 - 26
2007 - 21
2008 - 0 (injured)
2009 - 16
2010 - 25
(AVG: 23.3)

Matt Cassel - times he was sacked
2008 - 47
2009 - 42
2010 - 26
(AVG: 38.3)

So the more mobile Cassel gets sacked, on average, far more than Brady does. In 2008, with essentially the same offensive line that Brady had in 2007 and 2009, got sacked 47 times. In 2007 and 2009, Brady got sacked a total of 47 times - in twice the number of games.

Being mobile doesn't necessarily = fewer times sacked.

Michael Vick (the most mobile QB in the history of the NFL):

2004 - 46 sacks
2005 - 33 sacks
2006 - 45 sacks
2010 - 34 sacks (in just 12 games)

Ben Roethlisberger (one of the most mobile QB in the league)

2006 - 46 sacks
2007 - 47 sacks
2008 - 46 sacks
2009 - 50 sacks
2010 - 32 sacks (in just 12 games)

Aaron Rodgers (another highly mobile QB)

2008 - 34 sacks
2009 - 50 sacks
2010 - 31 sacks

All of these guys get sacked at a *far* higher rate than Brady does. Cassel, Vick, Roethlisberger, Rodgers - all are highly mobile QB that also throw the ball well (i.e., they're not just "option" QBs). And they have been on successful teams for the most part. And yet they get sacked a TON.

Brady isn't mobile, but neither were Dan Marino and Peyton Manning, and those two guys hardly ever got sacked. Same with Brady.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

New England Patriots - times their QB was sacked
2004 - 26
2005 - 28 (Brady 26, Flutie 1, Davey 1)
2006 - 29 (Brady 26, Cassel 3)
2007 - 21
2008 - 48 (Cassel 47, O'Connell 1)
2009 - 18 (Brady 16, Hoyer 2)
2010 - 25

Tom Brady - times he was sacked
2004 - 26
2005 - 26
2006 - 26
2007 - 21
2008 - 0 (injured)
2009 - 16
2010 - 25
(AVG: 23.3)

Matt Cassel - times he was sacked
2008 - 47
2009 - 42
2010 - 26
(AVG: 38.3)

So the more mobile Cassel gets sacked, on average, far more than Brady does. In 2008, with essentially the same offensive line that Brady had in 2007 and 2009, got sacked 47 times. In 2007 and 2009, Brady got sacked a total of 47 times - in twice the number of games.

Being mobile doesn't necessarily = fewer times sacked.

Michael Vick (the most mobile QB in the history of the NFL):

2004 - 46 sacks
2005 - 33 sacks
2006 - 45 sacks
2010 - 34 sacks (in just 12 games)

Ben Roethlisberger (one of the most mobile QB in the league)

2006 - 46 sacks
2007 - 47 sacks
2008 - 46 sacks
2009 - 50 sacks
2010 - 32 sacks (in just 12 games)

Aaron Rodgers (another highly mobile QB)

2008 - 34 sacks
2009 - 50 sacks
2010 - 31 sacks

All of these guys get sacked at a *far* higher rate than Brady does. Cassel, Vick, Roethlisberger, Rodgers - all are highly mobile QB that also throw the ball well (i.e., they're not just "option" QBs). And they have been on successful teams for the most part. And yet they get sacked a TON.

Brady isn't mobile, but neither were Dan Marino and Peyton Manning, and those two guys hardly ever got sacked. Same with Brady.

People confuse raw athleticism and being a mobile scrambler at the position with developed agility and awareness and being a deft maneuverer within the pocket. Brady has always made his OL look better than they are because he works at his craft. Ben and others often make theirs look worse...in an effort to make something out of nothing via athleticism they risk making things worse. Those guys are so dependent on their legs and or their big arm that as the injuries pile up they become less effective with age. Guys like Brady can play a lot longer. He even plays better hurt than most of them can because he focuses on his mechanics and adapts to his situation. Still, would be nice to see him better protected over the long haul because as we learned in 2008, **** happens even to the most deft pocket passer in a generation if not ever.

Rogers is liable to be retired in his mid 30's due to concussion issues, and Ben is liable to become a plodding gimp who will still be a load to take down but a lot easier to corral. If Vick is injured at all he becomes a liability.

I thought it was interesting that Rogers commented on what changed after his concussion - when he played noticably better. Said he missed the game while sitting out and began to focus more attention on studying tape in order to help himself avoid similar situations going forward. If he can stick to that and maintain focus and not succomb to the natural inclination on having arrived atop the mountain to simply coast on talent, he might last longer or at least be a lot more effective than his predecessor was despite his longevity....

Brady's greatest asset is probably his focus and determination get better each and every off season by working on the little things in his own game. Which is why replacing him with a first rounder doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Gifted athletes seldom work as diligently at their craft as guys who were not as gifted and had to develop every ounce of talent they had in order to succeed. Talent tends to carry the day at the lower levels of competition (and in fantasies) and egos develop accordingly. I'll take the slightly less talented guy who is driven and gives 110% effort every day. Even our old pal Seymour recently said that is what he would do if he were building a roster.

At this level arm strength and rushing ability are overrated. They can all make all the throws within reason. It's the intangibles that make the real difference. Eli can make all the throws and he can move around, he's just wildly inconsistent. Not sure if it's in him to become accountable for his own persistent shortcomings and work at eliminating them after having the freak good fortune to win a ring. He needs to spend more time working at his craft and less time grousing and shooting cookie commercials. But that bloodline and the contracts and the hype have likely led him to believe he shouldn't have to. Coming out of college he was actually touted by some scouts as the more talented Manning...

 

[seven]

Another vid montage that would be good is Tom moving in the pocket,
feet like a boxer that kid has.
Still jumps rope everyday, I think?
Another lesson learned from Joe.

Nice post on the sacks, ivanvamp.

Is there a Brady prototype in the draft, pocket passer, smart, obsessed with winning, tall, wants to win 7 super bowls, marry a supermodel?

There must be one, somewhere.
The only scrambling I like is with eggs.
Both start with something getting broken.

Stuff in a blender is good too.

Which reminds me about a mayhem making,
defensive monster of a menace.
A guy who just likes to break things.
Lives to break things, and is pretty much incapable of happiness,
until he has broken something.
Then he smiles.

We are going to get one, you know it!
it is a bit like Christmas.

Thanks Mr Kraft.

 

[JoeSixPat]

This year of all years I'd be stunned to see them do that, especially the way KOC washed out and got run over by an UDFA. At that level you need to draft a player who should be viable at least as a backup if not in your system at least in someones...and fourth string on the JETS doesn't count as viable.

I strongly disagree. While Belichick expects production out of everyone he picks - especially third rounders and up, he, better than all of us, know that ultimately it's a crap shoot.

If an undrafted rookie can beat out a 3rd round pick and prove he's the best man on the roster, Belichick doesn't think twice about cutting the 3rd rounder. He's looking for the best guys regardless of where they drafted.

Other coaches/GMs take a very different view and will keep a lesser guy on the roster simply because of pride where they were drafted, like the Jets and Woodhead.

Belichick will cut a drafted guy and keep a Woodhead and not think twice about it.

As far as drafting a QB high in the draft, Belichick knows that where guys like Hoyer or Cassel (or Brady for that matter) has little bearing on their actual prospects in the NFL. But if he sees a guy he thinks is the right person at the right opportunity for Belichick, he'll draft them, regardless of criticism or where everyone else had the prospect ranked.

 

[townes]

Cassel will either be ruined by Haley by then or have survived him to become a QB so valuable the Chief's wouldn't be interested in trading...

Bill will get Tommy's replacement from the same place he got Tommy, day 3 of the draft and developed under Tom in the system.

Generally speaking it's easier to teach the system to a rookie QB who fits the profile than it is to unteach bad habits learned elsewhere to a veteran QB...although he would likely also start kicking the tires on some veteran backups when the time comes.

QB's drafted much earlier tend to be less coachable or adaptable because they have been conditioned to think it's all about their measurables talent. QB's who are playing now will either be too valuable to trade or not worth the price. Situations like the Cassel one are few and far between, and his value was largely tied to having been developed HERE. Remember, Bill's actually kicked a lot of tires over the last decade and only a handful could remotely run this offense. To date that handful were all what scouts would have characterized at best as diamond in the rough potential career NFL backups...

Even Rogers who was a late first round faller and had to muster some real mental toughness to sit for 3 seasons in a nearly no win situation behind the thing that wouldn't leave.

I think the way Brady's extension was done lends itself to one more incremental 2-4 year extension at the mid point of his current deal (2013) at which time BB will also have been extended another 4-5. I don't think Tommy's replacement needs to be on the roster before 2013-14 because I don't think he will see the field much before 2016. I think in the interim Bill would be happy to develop trading chips behind Tom, any of which might provide value as Tom's bachup before becoming the chip that helps replace him without dipping into draft picks better spent in the trenches and in insuring that guy takes over a team that doesn't need the next Tom Brady to be a contender. 'Cause you may never find THAT guy again.

This pretty much covers it. Start thinking back-up for the future in 2014/2015.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Even our 3rd rounders are too valuable in a shallow draft as trading chips to move up to secure the players we truly need or to insure we have multiple seconds in 2012. Forget about wasting any of the higher picks on a player who may never see the field here... That's what foolish teams like the Dolphins do...

Hoyer is signed through 2011 and due to be an RFA in 2012. So I think we certainly should consider drafting a QB in the latter rounds if in fact one like McElroy is available in the 4th or later. Unless we have a target QB in mind no one's talking up who is unlikely to be drafted like a Hoyer... But the first 100 picks in a shallow draft are too valuable to waste on a player who will have a hard time ever seeing the field here. We're looking to replace the backup, not the starter at this juncture...

Brady's 33 now. He'll be 34 at the start of the 2011 season (assuming there is one), signed through the 2014 season and at the startof the 2015 season he'll be 38 years old.

I'm not saying he will be washed up, but I'm saying the Belichick will adopt the thinking that he shouldn't bank on Brady being either healthy or with the same level of skills.

So, assuming we're not all thinking that Hoyer is not just a capable backup but the next franchise QB of the Patriots, I'd say finding a potential QB who you give 1, 2, preferably 3 seasons minimum to adust, develop and learn the system, will be a top priority over the next 4 years.

As 3 years development would be my preference, is giving someone 4 years really such a stretch of the imagination?

So yes, I absolutely see the Patriots looking closely at QBs in the draft - and if someone with high upside that meets Belichick's criteria is available, Belichick will take him. And Belichick wants him knowing other teams deam the guy a 3rd or 4th round pick, Belichick will understand the fundamental rule of the NFL draft:

If there's someone you want, you need to take him before someone else does

Meaning simply, that if everyone deems a guy a 4th round pick and Belichick wants him, he'll use a 3rd round pick to get him, regardless of where others say he "should" have been drafted.

 

[JoeSixPat]

This pretty much covers it. Start thinking back-up for the future in 2014/2015.

Whoa - as much as we all hope Brady is playing at MVP levels at age 40, I don't think anyone, most of all Belichick, would bank on it.

Belichick WILL be looking for Tom's successor over the coming years - don't kid yourself. If Tom is still the man he'll have the job and Belichick will have an excellent backup or tradeable commodity on his hands.

Few are concerned with finding Brian Hoyer's successor - though I suppose even that won't wait til 2015.

The last thing a coach like Belichick would do is wait til 2014/15 to start thinking about someone who might compete with a 38 year old Tom Brady for a starting job. You give a young QB a MINIMUM of 2-3 years... meaning you'd be looking to draft such a player next season at the latest...

So a suggestion that Belichick may be looking for Brady's successor as soon as 4 years out is not a big stretch at all.

In fact there's a QB who comes to mind was drafted in 2005 who didn't start until his 4th season and things generally worked out pretty well - any guesses who that is? I'll give you a hint. He just won the Super Bowl.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I want the Pats to pick up Andy Dalton!!!

Amen, he's mobile enough to roll out well but not so much that he's going to be a runningback with an arm, I think he'll be a pocket passer who uses his legs as an icing on the cake.

 

[tomterrific]

I don't think Belichick is concerned about the future beyond Tom Brady. As long as Brady is there and effective, the window for Super Bowl runs is open, and thats their focus.

He'll get a guy who will have the chance at being a successor, but Brady is 34, not 38. He has plenty of time. But I strongly believe Belichick has hitches his wagon to Brady (same with Brady to Bill's), and both will retire about the same time.

 

[Belichick's Midget Army]

Brady may be 34, but he doesn't look like the kind of QB that would like to play into his 40s. He's a Namath-kind of QB, not a Manning-kind of QB. Always has.

I'm thinking about the possibility of Belichick trading for a 2012 1st round pick thinking about drafting his successor. That should be a better draft class with more NFL ready QBs.

 

[Dirk20]

Brady may be 34, but he doesn't look like the kind of QB that would like to play into his 40s. He's a Namath-kind of QB, not a Manning-kind of QB. Always has.

I'm thinking about the possibility of Belichick trading for a 2012 1st round pick thinking about drafting his successor. That should be a better draft class with more NFL ready QBs.

I respectfully disagree with you good sir. Brady has indeed stated that he would like to play until he is 40 and he also said that he didn't like doing anything else. This is a guy who loves football just as much as Manning does. Whats a Namath kind of qb? Tom Brady is his own man. He is not Joe Namath.

Trading for a pick in 2012 would be all but useless since Brady will probably play until he is 43-45. The 2012 qb you proposed would be about 31-32 by then.
A Manning qb? Whats that? The notion that Brady will be hanging them up anytime soon is just silly. This aint 1978 anymore homey. Modern medicine has progressed and athletes are lasting longer than ever. Plus, NFL rules will probably force qbs to wear flags by 2013. Brady may just play until he is 50!