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What's your election score prediction?

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Real World, Nov 4, 2008.

  1. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    So, the day has finally arrived. It's election day. At this time tomorrow we'll (hopefully) have a winner, and new president. What I want to know from you all, in this thread, is who do you think wins, and by what Electoral College score? Feel free to add in whatever extra tidbits of info (predictions) you see happening.

    My Predictions

    Winner: Brack Obama

    Electoral College Votes: 291 Obama to 247 McCain

    I'm going to go with a little bit of a closer fight than most are predicting. I wouldn't at all be surprised if it's in the 310-320 range for Obama, but I think McCain is going to pull out Ohio & Florida. The latest polls for those two states are 1-3%, or inside the margin of error. If history serves us, that bodes well for McCain. I think he loses Virginia though, and probably Nevada. This scenario just goes to show you how high a mountain John McCain has to climb. Imagine winning Florida and Ohio, and still losing by 20+ EC's. Ohio is the one that is more likely to go Obama though. High concentrations of african americans in certain counties could flip that state from 2004, should they turn out in force.

    I think the Dems fall just shy of the fillibuster proof majority they need in the senate, but come very, very close.

    I think Question 1 loses. (I want it to win - voting YES)
    I think Question 2 loses. (I want it to win - voting YES)
    I think Question 3 loses. (I want it to lose - voting NO) :D

    I think John Murtha lives to regret his comments. If he wins, it'll be by the skin of his teeth. People simply don't like to be called racists.

    Shaheen wins in NH.
    Dole loses in NC.
    Franken might upset Coleman in IL. High Obama turnout could propel him over the top. If Obama supporters figure it's in the bag for him in IL, then Coleman wins. This race could decide the filibuster in the Senate.

    What say you?
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  2. Lifer

    Lifer Banned

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    The trends have certainly gone Obama's direction since the 30 minute ad last Wednesday.

    Im going with Obama 52, McCain 45, others 3

    Electoral Vote: I sure see lots of African-Americans and young faces in those long lines. In North Carolina, I saw a figure
    that over 400,000 of the newly 800,000 registered voters had already voted as of sunday. The ground game and the enthusiam
    gap can be overestimated either.

    Im going with Obama 353, McCain 185. All the Kerry States, plus the usual 5, Virginia,Iowa,N.Mexico,Colorado,Nevada, and
    I think Ohio, Florida,and North Carolina as well. The most interesting state could be the first one tonight, Indiana.

    Obama has more organization there, and the turnout in Gary and Indianapolis will tell the story. Indian,Virginia, and Pennsylvania
    are the 3 states to watch early.

    Missouri is also very interesting as Kansas City and St.Louis could tip it. Riding around KC,MO saturday every lawn seemed to have
    an Obama sign and he has 25,000 volunteers working the state.

    If there is a tidal wave across the country tonight, Indiana,Missouri, Montana, and yes, Georgia could be surprises.
    that would be a best case of 391. But i'll go with the 353.

    of special interest to me having lived in South Carolina is how close it gets there. 30% African-American population
    and Columbia, Myrtle Beach, and Charleston are not as Right Wing as it used to be. Obama could make it close
  3. scout

    scout Rookie

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    #15 Jersey

    Good thread RW.
    Obama wins electoral college 291. Wins record popular vote count. Senate falls short of fillibuster proof by two and D dominates house with picking up 25 seats.
  4. sdaniels7114

    sdaniels7114 Rookie

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    I predict that Real World will never learn to check the Stickey threads;)

    Fox will call the race for Obama about 5 seconds after the polls close in California.
  5. tatepatsfan

    tatepatsfan Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I'm going with Obama around 370 electoral votes (I think he is going to win the Kerry states, plus IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, NC, MO, OH, FL, MT, and ND), and between 52 and 53% of the popular vote. Dems clinch 59 in the Senate, and Georgia will go to a runoff, so we won't know if there is a filibuster-proof majority tonight or not.
  6. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Interesting mention of the popular vote. Will he top Bush's record of 62+ million? I think that's a distinct possibility. I think we could possibly even see a situation where turnout is so high, that both McCain & Obama break the 2004 elections, record totals. Early voting, and youths finally showing up, would probably be responsible for either happening.

    Hmmm...whats the popular vote going to be? I haven't really considered that. Bush got 51% to Kerry's 48% in 2004. I think Obama is going to so carry the urban vote, that he's going to win by a very large margin. We could see a copy of the 2000 election, where the popular vote was not indicitive of the EC tally. I stress could. I'm going to go with 52.6% to 46.4% with 1% other.
  7. weswelker#83

    weswelker#83 Rookie

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    Hi real word , i voted this morning :

    1-Yes
    2-Yes
    3-No
  8. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Wes, I knew breathing in all those Logan fumes couldn't kill all you brain cells. :D Welcome to the Real World pal. ;)

    Seriously, that's exactly how I'm voting wes. Good show mate!
  9. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    You know, I posted this, and them when I went to the mainboard, I saw the sticky, and said "dang did some mod think my thread was so good they made it a sticky", only to realize I was 4 days too late with my idea. Doh! :ugh:

    My threads better though, since i made it. :p
  10. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Networks are talking about calling the election BEFORE CA closes which sucks as there's other issues here to be voted on and voters shouldn't be discouraged from going to the polls even though CA is decided.

    Hard to believe the (R) ace in the hole is Lieberman should the Dems get real close to 60.
  11. scout

    scout Rookie

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    #15 Jersey

    How is Lieberman the ace in the hole? If Leiberman decides to vote with the Repub. on either too many issues or too crucial of an issue, he can kiss his committee membership goodbye, and that is something he'll never do. It's always about numero uno.
  12. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    I just voted for Barr & Root. Sounds more like a pestacide company, than it does a presidential ticket. At least those suckers will get one vote in Massachusetts. yippee! :americaflag:

    I actually took some extra time in the booth tonight. The last choice I made was for president. I looked at McCain/Palin, and tried to see if I could convince myself to do it. I couldn't. I then looked at Obama/Biden to try the same, and I just couldn't do it. So while I was tempted to darken Cynthia McKinney out of protest, I opted to give the Libertarian Party my support. Whomever wins, I hope they're the best ever. Lord knows we need them to be.

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