What's with the sudden panic over the offense?

[TheBostonStraggler]

I certainly understand the concern, especially since we'll have lost all 5 of Brady's top targets should Gronk start on PUP. That changeover alone will merit consideration of concern for many.

I am not worried about the change of WR1 or WR2, and the production of the RB passes should be able to be replicated to some degree too. Hell, we actually should be able to improve upon the WR3 and WR4 positions this year who only received 21 and 16 catches respectively.

My main concern would be the ability to utilize our offense as effectively without changing too many aspects, and still being able to run hurry up on 25% of the snaps. That normally meant keeping versatile personnel on the field (the loss of #81 concerns me), while taking advantage of mismatches against the opposing defense.

Belichick will have to decide how/what he feels most comfortable with in the upcoming months, and I'd have to imagine that we'll be beating dead horses with talks of trade for another WR, replacement for the "joker/move" TE, or just switching up the style and scheme altogether more.

I can understand the concern too. It was their prior to AH and even more so that he will never be a part of the Patriots offense again.

With that said, the Patriots have shown resiliency and the ability to win as changes occurred: We have BB and we have TFB. Most important part in tact! We appear to have a OL that is one of the better in the league. Another important part, check! We appear to be stacked at RB better than we have been in quite a few years, even the backfield pass game has a lot promise! We do have arguably the best TE in the game who will, hopefully, be here for most of the season. We have a receiver, DA, who has shown the ability to catch a lot of passes and looks to be on the upswing of his career. We have a few veterans who know what they're doing and are work ethic kind of guys. But is the receiving group good to go? Nnnnoooo. But given the point by point measure of it, given the history, given TFB, given BB, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Patriots can tailor there roadmap to victory to achieve those victories. As a team they have won more with, arguably, less.

 

[patsfan13]

Huge downgrades at WR/TE
Downgrade at RB

But we'll read all about Brady declining if the offense suffers.

Huge downgrade at TE? Remains to be seen certainly a downgrade, no doubt.

Downgrade at WR? More talent overall but very young are these guys smart to get up the learning curve quickly? Well AH and Gronk quickly grasped the O why not one or more of the new (draftees) Amendola show indications of being able to get in sync with Brady.

RB? Don't see the downgrade Vareen will be better than Woody this year.

My prediction is that this O will be top 3 in the NFL in scoring, if things break right it will be better by the time the playoffs roll around that than the group last year.

 

[ivanvamp]

Huge downgrades at WR/TE
Downgrade at RB

But we'll read all about Brady declining if the offense suffers.

What's the downgrade at RB? Woodhead to Washington?

 

[ivanvamp]

If the Patriots were to enter the season as is the offense would be a significant downgrade from last season.

Last year the Patriots scored 557 points. That's 34.8 points per game. The next best offense (Denver) scored 481, for an average of 30.1 points per game.

Here were the top 5 scoring teams in the NFL:

1. NE - 557 (34.8/g)
2. Den - 481 (30.1/g)
3. NO - 461 (28.8/g)
4. Was - 436 (27.3/g)
5. NYG - 429 (26.8/g)

Do we think that the Patriots' offense will lose 76 points (nearly 11 touchdowns) due to the roster changes? They'd have to lose 128 points (8 per game...more than a touchdown a game) in order to fall out of the top 5 in scoring.

So they can afford, really, to have a pretty significant dropoff and still be an elite offense.

This season will likely come down to how much the defense has improved. If they can get into the top 5 in scoring D (they were 9th in the NFL last year in scoring D, and would take an improvement of just 2.1 points per game to get into the top 5), they will once again be a dominant team.

And I, for one, think the D can improve that much.

 

[patsfaninpa]

To me the key is the health of Gronk and Amendola. If they're healthy, the offense is still going to be pretty damn good. If not, a lot more games are in question.

Even though our offense was great when clicking. A couple of defenses did figure out how to slow us down. Mainly, Baltimore and NYG. The middle of the field did get too crowded with; Gronk, Welker and Hernandez. If we line up two outside the numbers receivers. I'd guess Dobson and Jones/Boyce. Even if only one is effective, it creates more room in the middle of the field for Gronk and Amendola. Edelman and Ballard provide pretty good depth for Gronk and Amendola. Shane Vereen is a heckuva receiver too. There just wasn't any PT for him with Woodhead and all of the other slot receivers. We caught a glimpse of his abilities in the Houston playoff game. We're going to see a lot more this season.

Still stunned a NFL player could do that. Especially one with the contract AHern signed. But, it is what it is. For those downplaying how good he could be when healthy. Re-watch Super Bowl 46. After Tom Brady, he may have been our best player that night. I think the extensions we gave Gronk and AHern last summer put the writing on the wall for Welker. I think there is evidence BB/McDaniel wanted to re-tool the offense a little. Now, we'll see what they had in mind without the security blanket of a guy like Welker around.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

2 Rbs capable of 1000+ yards
Slot receiver who's capable of 1000+ yards
The GOAT at QB
One of the best offensive lines in the game
The best TE in the game

Sure there's inexperienced WRs but everyone starts somewhere don't they? Until we actually see what they're like in an actual game then there's no reason to panic about something we don't know about yet, it isn't even TC yet!

Don't sleep on special teams either - Edelman is the best punt returner in franchise history and Leon Washington is one of the best kick returners in league history, giving Brady shorter fields to work with will go a long way to helping the offense out if they are struggling.

2012 saw the Patriots run a "two TE" offense that never had both TE's on the field and healthy at the same time.

Currently, the Patriots have:

Best QB in the league
Best OL in the league
Best RB by committee in the league.

The best TE in the league will be back.

There will also be the added advantage of zero film on what the offense will look like.

What people forget is 2006 was still a top ten offense.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

To me the key is the health of Gronk and Amendola. If they're healthy, the offense is still going to be pretty damn good. If not, a lot more games are in question.

Even though our offense was great when clicking. A couple of defenses did figure out how to slow us down. Mainly, Baltimore and NYG. The middle of the field did get too crowded with; Gronk, Welker and Hernandez. If we line up two outside the numbers receivers. I'd guess Dobson and Jones/Boyce. Even if only one is effective, it creates more room in the middle of the field for Gronk and Amendola. Edelman and Ballard provide pretty good depth for Gronk and Amendola. Shane Vereen is a heckuva receiver too. There just wasn't any PT for him with Woodhead and all of the other slot receivers. We caught a glimpse of his abilities in the Houston playoff game. We're going to see a lot more this season.

Still stunned a NFL player could do that. Especially one with the contract AHern signed. But, it is what it is. For those downplaying how good he could be when healthy. Re-watch Super Bowl 46. After Tom Brady, he may have been our best player that night. I think the extensions we gave Gronk and AHern last summer put the writing on the wall for Welker. I think there is evidence BB/McDaniel wanted to re-tool the offense a little. Now, we'll see what they had in mind without the security blanket of a guy like Welker around.

Nothing was ever "figured out".

Why does this nonsense keep getting repeated?

The "figuring out" happened against the lesser version with Gronk hurt.

Why is it so hard to comprehend the simple fact that a unit will not be as good without it's best player?

 

[mgteich]

Do I think that we could lose a touchdown a game with our losing of Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd and Woodhead? Yes.

Perhaps, the issue of it being difficult to learn the patriots offense is simply a myth and the rookies and JAG's will have no trouble being productive. Perhaps losing the best slot receiver in the league and one of the best TE's simply makes no difference; after all, it was Brady and the system that made these players, and Brady and the system are in place.

Do we think that the Patriots' offense will lose 76 points (nearly 11 touchdowns) due to the roster changes? They'd have to lose 128 points (8 per game...more than a touchdown a game) in order to fall out of the top 5 in scoring.

 

[neuronet]

How could someone pretend to not understand the worry? Our WR corps has been gutted. We are going from proven weapons to unproven weapons, who have to learn the system for the first time, for the positions where it is hardest to learn the system (i.e., WR, TE).

Given what has happened the past two months, I don't understand how a thoughtful person would come away without concerns.

 

[Nunchucks]

How could someone pretend to not understand the worry? Our WR corps has been gutted. We are going from proven weapons to unproven weapons, who have to learn the system for the first time, for the positions where it is hardest to learn the system (i.e., WR, TE).

Given what has happened the past two months, I don't understand how a thoughtful person would come away without concerns.

Meh, the game moves on, no need to wring your hands and fret just yet. Lets see what training camp brings. Why worry about this stuff?

I am just as excited for this season as I have been for any season, they will figure it out, you are giving yourself anxiety for no reason.

 

[50-yard-line]

I'm not sure why people who want to defend the team keep telling me how I can look at things when the data runs against them. Of course I can look at it like that. It's perfectly valid data to look at. Furthermore, as I've pointed out elsewhere, Lloyd had a higher YPC than either Jenkins or Jones last season. And the notion that they have "a lot more potential depth" is absurd.

It's not about "defending the team," but more about a reminder that the difference will be net, not gross. Brady's still going to throw those passes - it's just a matter of completion % and YPC and touchdowns. What's the NET loss going to be?

There will probably be some fall-off, particularly early, but I stand by my assertion that there's a lot more potential depth this year than last. The dropoff after Welker and Lloyd was...the Abyss.

Jenkins, Jones, Hawkins and the two rookies are all more talented and physically gifted than anything the Pats had at WR3, 4 and 5. That matters.

 

[Mack Herron]

Here are the first downs produced by receivers no longer present and returning (assuming all the Gronk question marks are nonexistent):

Welker 72
Lloyd 50
Hernandez 27
Woodhead 22
Branch 10

Here is what they return:

Gronk 45
Edelman 12
Vereen 6
Hooman 4
Fells 3
Ridley 2

 

[mgteich]

I agree that the rookies and the JAGs are likely to be better than our #3/#4/#5 last year. Also Ballard is likely to be better than our #3 TE from last last. So, we have improved depth at WR.

Amendola is likely to be an improvement over Lloyd as a #2 WR, or not.

Note that all this is speculation. These players need to learn the patriot system, a difficult problem for many in the past.
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Depth is NOT the issue. We lost our #1 WR and our #2 TE and replacement them with rookies and/or JAG's.

I

Jenkins, Jones, Hawkins and the two rookies are all more talented and physically gifted than anything the Pats had at WR3, 4 and 5. That matters.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Nothing was ever "figured out".

Why does this nonsense keep getting repeated?

The "figuring out" happened against the lesser version with Gronk hurt.

Why is it so hard to comprehend the simple fact that a unit will not be as good without it's best player?

They Giants beat us at home that year and shut us out in the first half. The Ravens were leading when Gronk got hurt. We scored on that drive. But, weren't exactly marching up and down the field in the 2011 AFCCG.

 

[ivanvamp]

Do I think that we could lose a touchdown a game with our losing of Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd and Woodhead? Yes.

If they lost a TD a game from last year they'd *STILL* be a top-5 offense. They're that good.

Perhaps, the issue of it being difficult to learn the patriots offense is simply a myth and the rookies and JAG's will have no trouble being productive. Perhaps losing the best slot receiver in the league and one of the best TE's simply makes no difference; after all, it was Brady and the system that made these players, and Brady and the system are in place.

It won't likely make *no* difference. I see a drop off for sure (though they might surprise me). But look at this:

Hernandez played in games 1,2,6,7,11,12,13,14,15,16. That's 10 games. During those games, the Patriots averaged 30.3 ppg and 416.0 ypg. They went 7-3 in those games.

Hernandez did not play in games 3,4,5,8,9,10. That's 6 games. During those games, the Patriots averaged 42.3 ppg and 447.7 ypg. They went 5-1 in those games.

Now I'm *NOT* saying that the team is better off on the field without Hernandez. What I *am* saying is that they don't really seem to have had much of a problem scoring points without him.

 

[JMC00]

They ran a 4 WR set only 4 times all last year. I expect that number to be up significantly this season.

 

[UofApatsfan]

Right, I have a ton of confidence with our coach who lost his last 20 games in Denver, and then ran the worst offense in the entire league in St. Louis despite Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson.

We'll see how well all these tons of ex-Rams and ex-Broncos do that were brought over here now that Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez are now out.

I was a big McDaniels hater at the beginning of last season (the Ravens game when Woodhead got 15 carries in particular) but I think he got a lot better as the season went on. Even the Ravens game he had a lot of great play calls the caught the defense over pursuing but were just poorly executed.

 

[Guts]

Hernandez played in games 1,2,6,7,11,12,13,14,15,16. That's 10 games. During those games, the Patriots averaged 30.3 ppg and 416.0 ypg. They went 7-3 in those games.

Hernandez did not play in games 3,4,5,8,9,10. That's 6 games. During those games, the Patriots averaged 42.3 ppg and 447.7 ypg. They went 5-1 in those games.

Now I'm *NOT* saying that the team is better off on the field without Hernandez. What I *am* saying is that they don't really seem to have had much of a problem scoring points without him.

But the big difference is they had Welker during those games Patriots don't have the luxury of old reliable Wes anymore, I felt when Welker left we would be fine because we had Hernandez and Gronk but no more Hernandez so I can see why people are panicking but in the end as long as 12 is under center Patriots always have a shot

 

[ivanvamp]

But the big difference is they had Welker during those games Patriots don't have the luxury of old reliable Wes anymore, I felt when Welker left we would be fine because we had Hernandez and Gronk but no more Hernandez so I can see why people are panicking but in the end as long as 12 is under center Patriots always have a shot

I understand these games were without Welker. But they scored more points in games without Hernandez than they did with him. That's the point. With pretty much everything else the same, they put up more points without AH. That tells me that whatever the offense was going to look like with him this year, it'll be roughly the same without him, production-wise.

 

[mgteich]

Is that because our wide receivers are so experienced in the offense?

They ran a 4 WR set only 4 times all last year. I expect that number to be up significantly this season.