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Whatifsports.com simulation of Ravens-Pats

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ivanvamp, Jan 16, 2013.

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  1. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp In the Starting Line-Up

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    I ran the Pats-Ravens matchup through whatifsports.com's simulator 10 times, using the following weather conditions: 40 degrees, medium wind. Here were the 10 outcomes:

    Game 1: Bal 41, NE 27 - Pats thoroughly dominated; Rice has 109 on the ground, Smith has 83 in the air.

    Game 2: Bal 27, NE 24 - Ravens win on FG in OT; huge game from Flacco (350 yds).

    Game 3: NE 6, Bal 3 - Defensive struggle; Flacco held to 7-20 for 121 yds.

    Game 4: Bal 27, NE 20 - Flacco 16-20, 220, 3 td, 1 int; Smith 106 receiving yards and a TD.

    Game 5: NE 31, Bal 12 - Welker has two long end-around TDs of 79 and 72 yds, plus a 17-yd TD reception.

    Game 6: Bal 31, NE 28 - Rice 18 yd TD run with 16 seconds left for the comeback win.

    Game 7: Bal 37, NE 24 - Suggs with 4 sacks; Rice with 120 rushing yds.

    Game 8: NE 16, Bal 10 - Arrington with 3 INT.

    Game 9: NE 31, Bal 23 - Pats come back from 23-21 deficit with 10 straight in 4th quarter; Brady with 276 yds passing, 3 td, 0 int.

    Game 10: NE 34, Bal 21 - Brady with 205 yds passing and 3 td; Flacco also with a big game (221 yds, 3 td, 0 int).

    So 10 games played, here are the final numbers:

    Team Stats:
    Points Per Game: NE 24.1, Bal 23.2
    Rush Yds Per Game: NE 142.3, Bal 143.8
    Pass Yds Per Game: NE 223.8, Bal 206.8
    1st Downs Per Game: NE 18.5, Bal 18.9

    Individual Stats (total):
    Passing
    - Brady: 147-249 (59.0%), 2357 yds, 16 td, 6 int, 102.1 rating
    - Flacco: 153-239 (64.0%), 2155 yds, 15 td, 8 int, 99.9 rating

    Rushing
    - Ridley: 180-623 (3.5), 1 td
    - Woodhead: 60-289 (4.8), 5 td
    - Vereen: 42-196 (4.7), 1 td
    - Welker: 8-154 (19.3), 2 td
    - Rice: 163-835 (5.1), 7 td
    - Pierce: 79-294 (3.7), 2 td

    Receiving
    - Woodhead: 12-189 (15.8), 4 td
    - Vereen: 4-105 (26.3)
    - Welker: 52-743 (14.3), 6 td
    - Lloyd: 36-717 (19.9), 6 td
    - Branch: 14-222 (15.9), 1 td
    - Hernandez: 25-330 (13.2)
    - Rice: 23-240 (10.4)
    - Leach: 8-104 (13.0), 1 td
    - Smith: 29-556 (19.2), 4 td
    - Boldin: 40-559 (13.9), 4 td
    - Jones: 18-254 (13.9), 3 td
    - Pitta: 29-352 (12.1), 3 td

    So whatifsports.com projects this game to be incredibly close and very, very evenly matched.

    For whatever that's worth (nothing, really).
     
  2. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    just simulate it in madden on your xbox...same thing
     
  3. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp In the Starting Line-Up

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    If I had an xbox......
     
  4. chasa

    chasa In the Starting Line-Up

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    #87 Jersey

    woodhead is out for the playoffs.

    Also no way flacco averages 65%passing. career, hes barely over 60, and for 2012 hes under 60%
     
  5. PatsDeb

    PatsDeb PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'll go with Door No. 10, please!
     
  6. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    No he isn't
     
  7. chasa

    chasa In the Starting Line-Up

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    hes going to play with a broken thumb?
     
  8. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp In the Starting Line-Up

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    Joe Flacco's career games vs. the Patriots:

    1/10/10 - 4-10, 34 yds, 0 td, 1 int (in their 33-14 romp)
    10/17/10 - 27-35, 285 yds, 2 td, 0 int
    1/22/12 - 22-36, 306 yds, 2 td, 1 int
    9/23/12 - 28-39, 382 yds, 3 td, 1 int

    TOTALS - 81-120 (67.5%), 1007 yds, 7 td, 3 int, 102.3 rating

    So yes, it's not at all difficult to think that he could complete 65% of his passes on Sunday.
     
  9. PlainOldEd

    PlainOldEd Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    #95 Jersey

    He was at prctice today with a brace on his thumb. Where did you hear that it was definitely broken?
     
  10. Steve:Section 102

    Steve:Section 102 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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  11. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    :rofl:


    There are some way screwed up simulations there (a 6-3 game? NFW), but this one takes the cake.
     
  12. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    Try simulating games that have already happened and check the results. The Pats typically lose (sometimes huge) to the Texans and the Ravens almost always get blown out by the Broncos.
     
  13. kkpat

    kkpat Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Did you ever run simulation of Texans game or 49ers games?

    Did it ever come as a blow out?

    If we fumble twice and throws picks twice just like 49ers game, we may be blown apart. May be. After watching how came back against 49ers after fumbles, picks that were bizarre like a screen pass bounces into the hands of defender and see how we came back against them, I have a lot of confidence in this team.
     
  14. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yep. 10 games isn't enough to really get a feel for it. USA Today and ESPN tend to run their simulations millions of times. I just don't have time for that so ten will have to do.
     
  15. PatsDeb

    PatsDeb PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, get us another 10, will you?
     
  16. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He's practicing today. I doubt he will miss the game.
     
  17. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    BTW, I agree with Whatifsports.com. I think the Pats win convincingly unless Brady telegraphs his snap count like Manning did and the Pats turtle like the Broncos did.
     
  18. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    According to these simulations, we should all be ready to call 911.
     
  19. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick In the Starting Line-Up

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    #32 Jersey

    I don't like how the first three Patriot's victories in the simulations include the most unlikely outcomes.

    1.) 6-3, really? do we REALLY see a 6-3 game, nuff said
    2.) Welker not one but TWO 70+ yard rushing TDs, really?
    3.) Arrington 3 picks? really, ARRINGTON?!?!?!
     
  20. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Yeah, that was the simulation they played in a hurricane, each team tried 20 FGs, Pats were 2-20, Baltimore was 1-20.
     
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