WhatIfSports.com say Patriots to go 13-3 in 2008

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20080610

Interesting site and prognosis of the AFC East,close to what I think will happen but maybe give the Bills a bit closer to the top than the 4 game gap they post

I like the pummeling of Denver in week 7 - about time we crushed the Broncos and will hopefully come close to accuracy.

 

[ScottieC]

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20080610

Interesting site and prognosis of the AFC East,close to what I think will happen but maybe give the Bills a bit closer to the top than the 4 game gap they post

I like the pummeling of Denver in week 7 - about time we crushed the Broncos and will hopefully come close to accuracy.

Interesting, Thanks for posting!!

I like it, I'm a homer.

 

[signbabybrady]

13-3

We will do better than that. Seems like everyone wants to hate on the Pats.












(sarcasim)

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Actually, the computer predicts that the Patriots are the favorites in every game. The odds of victory range from a low of 52% (@IND) to 98% (v. KC); the Pats are given odds of <75% in four of 16 games (@SD, BUF, @IND, PIT), and >90% in four games (KC, MIA, JEST, @MIA). [Rather oddly, the algorithm predicts a higher likelihood of success on the road for MIA and BUF than at home.]

 

[jmt57]

I'll be interested to see what their analysis is for the other divisions. They've got the Browns finishing one game ahead of the Steelers in the AFC North.

 

[Ring 6]

I dont understand it. The projected schedule has them at 15-0-1 where does 13-3 come from?

I guess its fun to look at, but its all a matter of what they input.

Example: If my life expectancy is a miximum 80 more years, that gives me a 0.003425 chance of dying each day for the next 50 years. If you run a computer program with that formula 50,000,000 times, you will conclude that I will live exactly 40 more years. It is statistically correct, but that wont help me if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, or if I have a deadly disease that I, and the life expectancy prediction doesnt know about.

 

[blackglass3]

I would like to see what they predicted for the Super Bowl.

 

[BadMoFo]

Biased media, we're going 16-0 and they know it.

 

[jmt57]

I dont understand it. The projected schedule has them at 15-0-1 where does 13-3 come from?

I guess its fun to look at, but its all a matter of what they input.

Example: If my life expectancy is a miximum 80 more years, that gives me a 0.003425 chance of dying each day for the next 50 years. If you run a computer program with that formula 50,000,000 times, you will conclude that I will live exactly 40 more years. It is statistically correct, but that wont help me if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, or if I have a deadly disease that I, and the life expectancy prediction doesnt know about.

I think it's based on the idea that if you have ten games, and your probability of winning each one of those games is 60%, then your expected record would be 6-4 - even though you are favored to win all ten of those games.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

I agree as well....

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Bingo (ten characters).

I checked, and that does appear to be how they're doing it. Another way of looking at it is this--the average probability of the Pats winning a game is, according to their stats, 0.797; 0.797 x 16 games = 12.75 (i.e., 13) wins.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I remember a quote from Parcels. You want to win all the games you should win; and 50% of the tough games on the road.

A tough road game is against a playoff opponent and away. I don't remember what he said about tough Home games, ie playing playoff opponents at home. I presume he expects to win at least two thirds of those, in the ideal.

That would mean one victory out of the two playoff road games; and at least one victory against the two playoff opponents at home, but with a chance to lose one more.

Toss in a once a season stinker upset loss, and you are sitting at two, and possibly three losses.
So 13-3 is not at all an unreasonable or improbable SWAG.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

I remember a quote from Parcels. You want to win all the games you should win; and 50% of the tough games on the road.

A tough road game is against a playoff opponent and away. I don't remember what he said about tough Home games, ie playing playoff opponents at home. I presume he expects to win at least two thirds of those, in the ideal.

That would mean one victory out of the two playoff road games; and at least one victory against the two playoff opponents at home, but with a chance to lose one more.

Toss in a once a season stinker upset loss, and you are sitting at two, and possibly three losses.
So 13-3 is not at all an unreasonable or improbable SWAG.

Good analysis.

I will be very happy with a 13-3 record.....seeing we are going to win the final game in February!!

 

[hambone1818]

It is interesting, and I like the strength/weakness analysis. However, any algorithm that gives the Patriots a lower win probability at home than on the road against two separate teams is flawed (imo).

That said, I think 13-3 is the record I'd give them...14-2 might sound about right, too, and I don't see them going any worse than 12-4, but 13-3 is probably the safe pick.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Most Exploitable Weakness: Run Defense - Pressure on Brady was a concern in the Super Bowl, but that should be an anomaly. Even with Mayo, the biggest weakness of this team is actually its run defense. Teams were behind and having to throw the ball so much last season that the Patriots' 4.4 yards per carry allowed were not as exploited as they could have been.

Does everyone agree with this?

 

[bradmahn]

Does everyone agree with this?

No.

10char

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Does everyone agree with this?

Look at a a breakdown of ypc by quarter . If a team is behind by 3 TD and they have to pass, you play pass defense and occasionally you give up the 10 yard draw play which skews the running average.

First quarter Pats allowed 103 rushes/372 yds--------3.6 yards per carry
( If you take out Leon Washington's 49 yard run on a freaky formation in the second Jet game it drops to 3.18 ypc)
Rest of the game 269 rushes allowed for 1292 yds-----------4.7 ypc

Above is based on quick and dirty math....

 

[hambone1818]

Look at a a breakdown of ypc by quarter . If a team is behind by 3 TD and they have to pass, you play pass defense and occasionally you give up the 10 yard draw play which skews the running average.

First quarter Pats allowed 103 rushes/372 yds--------3.6 yards per carry
( If you take out Leon Washington's 49 yard run on a freaky formation in the second Jet game it drops to 3.18 ypc)
Rest of the game 269 rushes allowed for 1292 yds-----------4.7 ypc

Above is based on quick and dirty math....

Exactly correct, and while it was clearly something that we saw throughout the year, seeing the stats back up our perception is nice.

The Pats last year played entire halves in pass formations, there is absolutely no reason to worry about their pass defense.

 

[JoePats]

Does everyone agree with this?

No. Provided Vince is healthy the run defense should be fine, especially since the LBs will be deeper this year. Im much more concerned with the coverage and to a far lesser extent the pass rush, than the run defense.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Knock on wood - PATRIOT64 started a new thread about run defense.