I certainly do not want to just cut WW free. It does boil down to whether he will take shorter money.
The Pats got themselves into this situation by turning a big part of their offense over to a guy that lines up right next to the tackle and is exposed to a lot of physical play because of it. That used to be a compromise that the Pats could convince themselves that they could afford because when Gronk was out they could argue to themselves that they could move Welker into the top spot in Brady's progressions and still be "effective".
That is not the case now and maybe it never was the case. But concentrating on now and the future:
- Look at how often WW gets creamed now. Small guys live in this league by being difficult to hit cleanly. That is a skill...talent. That is not some matter of luck. You are either quick enough as a smallish guy to avoid the direct...get hammered licks or you are not. Wes no longer is. If you are watching the games you cannot miss how much more often Wes gets his clock cleaned now. This was true in the regular season as well.
- WW has also gotten slower and slower with time...what a surprise...a guy that is not exactly a long legged thoroughbred getting slower with age
- because of a combination of factors....age being one of them WW no longer makes big plays for this team in anything like the numbers that would support big contract numbers for him. Watching him "try" to stretch out for a ball yesterday was painful. So he makes a zillion catches in the regular season...that is like having a seasonal perspective on bend but don't break. Wes gets his catches in the regular season but in crunch time, he can be handled.
Hernandez can be handled when Gronk is not there. Lloyd can be handled no matter who is there!
So I want to see WW stay here. But if he is going to demand a contract that prevents the Pats from finding there way to a more realistic threat on the outside then I would reluctantly have to say that it is not an issue of WW being a bum or anything like that. They simply won't be able to afford him when they are already committed to Gronk and Hernandez. Now you could argue about turning over so much offense to a guy that is exposed to as much physical play as a TE without really being able to afford to be without him in the heat of post season competition....that is probably a legit argument. But that horse has already left the barn.
I would still prefer WW to Lloyd. I simply do not think Lloyd will ever be the answer here. TB does not have the confidence in Lloyd that he has in WW. Lloyd as it turns out does not even stretch the field from sideline to sideline. Lloyd does not get open with the frequency of a WW and the preponderance of Lloyd's catches are catches on the way to the ground. All of that turns Lloyd into a luxury that the Pats cannot afford to have. Welker is a luxury at the wrong price but if Welker can be signed for money that fits with the other team elements that they need then I would want them to keep Welker.
In fact, if McD is the guy that convinced the Pats to bring Lloyd here then that to me says more about McD than it says about Lloyd or Welker. Lloyd has shown me nothing that would have suggested to me that he was the guy we were looking for here.
We need a guy that is enough of an athlete that he can go get the ball....almost the other end of the problem we have with our DB's who also with one exception, Talib are simply not athletic enough. As I said earlier, when Gronk is out the Pats are missing their most potent offensive threat AND the only Pat's receiver I have seen of late that can make catches consistently on balls that are not thrown right into his sweet spot. Welker has to get the ball right on the numbers and he is dropping those as well. Hernandez does not stretch out for the ball like Gronk does. Lloyd's sweet spot is about 12" off the ground as he is going down and that is basically where he catches the ball. So much for YAC and Lloyd. Receivers do not have to be HOF receivers to be able to catch balls that are not thrown into some tight circle. But you better be able to make some catches on balls that are not perfectly thrown if you want to be considered a great receiver.
Oddly enough, thought about a certain way...we have the same problem on offense as we have on defense. Other than Gronk who will always be more exposed to injury than we will be comfortable with because he is a TE we have nobody that can go get the ball...nobody that presents that kind of athletic problem for the opponent. On defense except for Talib, we have nobody in the secondary that can compete athletically with the kinds of guys they have to cover.
Finally refusing to understand how damaging that drop by Welker was yesterday on the ball thrown right to him that would have converted on third down, is a refusal to understand the significance of momentum and belief in what you are doing is to a football team. Welker's drop proved to the Ravens that their defensive strategy for this game, pounding the Pats that handle the ball on offense, was sound and they were headed in the right direction yesterday. To say nothing of the momentum boost a defense gets from just making a third down conversion in a big spot like that and getting off the field. I would trade bushel barrels of Welker grabs for that one catch because when that ball slipped through his hands all the momentum went to the Ravens. I even think that drop was a double momentum whammy. The Pats have seen that drop before from Wes and I think it took the wind out of their sails in this situation. Momentum and belief in their defensive strategy went through the ceiling for the Ravens and they never looked back on either side of the ball after that.
