What is your take on the Denver-SF trade?

[bosfan]

There is a post on the fan forum but not a lot of input from the more serious analytical types that are usually found picking their noses here in the Draft Forum. My take is we have a better offer in our pocket otherwise we would made that deal which I'm sure was also made to us.

 

[BelichickFan]

I doubt we have a better offer, more likely we have a few guys in mind (or maybe just one) who we REALLY want who has a good chance to be there at #21 but not at #37. Also it's really dangerous trading down this early because you don't know who will slide down. Imagine if we had done that two years ago only to see Wilfork there out the pick we traded out of.

 

[shakadave]

My take on the Denver-SF trade is that Denver is now picking in some really nice spots. 15 is right before a run of talent goes off the board. Then they're high in the 2nd round, where some very nice talent is still there. Let's hope they make stupid picks.

 

[stinkypete]

For the Pats: I'm not convinced we're interested in moving up in round 1. The only way this happens is if there's somebody that BB covets. It usually isn't in the team's nature to lock in on a player like that. I think we'll be moving up in rounds 2 and 3, and that we'll come out of day 1 with 4 rock solid players.

For the Niners: It tells me that they're after Vernon Davis at #6. The Niners desperately need a playmaker and major depth on both sides of the ball. #22 is a good place to find solid linebackers and defensive backs. It won't be as good a spot for offensive skill positions. My guess is that they take Davis at #6 and the best defensive player available at #22.

For the Broncos: It's time to give Denver's front office credit. They've drafted brilliantly the past few years. Every year they deal in round 1 and every year they come out on top. They took 2 low 1st round picks they didn't want and turned them into a mid 1st (where they'll still be elite talent there), an early 2nd and a 3rd. They could be loaded.

 

[patchick]

My take on the Denver-SF trade is that Denver is now picking in some really nice spots. 15 is right before a run of talent goes off the board. Then they're high in the 2nd round, where some very nice talent is still there. Let's hope they make stupid picks.

Agreed...that deal looks much more attractive to Denver, given their extra round 1 selection. The curious thing is SF's strategy. They must have some kind of grand plan to be pulling the trigger this early.

 

[mgteich]

I think that this is an equal trade that will benefit Denver, because SF doesn't have a clue.

 

[nickw308810]

I think this trade hurts us because it will be tough to trade down since San Francisco will be looking at drafting the same type of defensive players as we will. If we wanted to trade down for a Carpenter or a Wimbley it might not be so easy since the niners could easily take one of those guys.

 

[Boston Tim]

I'm not certain that they would have offered the deal to the Pats. The trade chart shows that the points on this deal are exactly even. The Pats would have required a mid 6th rounder to make the deal even. That being said, I'm not a fan of the value chart and I have doubts that BB would constrain himself if he felt that the deal was good enough based on his own non-chart reasoning.

I like the way each team (San Fran and Denver) has aggressively positioned itself for the draft based on what seems to be pre-set draft strategies. But what these deals don't allow for is flexibility, which is a BB/Pioli requirement (i.e. having picks spread throughout the rounds to ensure that any spot is reachable.) For example, there is no guarantee that Denver will be able to find a trade partner to get back into the late first round if someone they love happens to drop. They would have to surrender a high 2007 pick, which hampers them next year.

Just for fun, I'll guess that this year San Fran and Denver will each follow an aggressive "player-targeted" approach (based on their pre-draft movements) while BB/Pioli will follow a more conservative "value grouping" approach (based on their current spread of picks.) What is interesting is that the Pats seemed to follow a "player-targeted" approach last year and the year before, but followed a "value grouping" approach 3 years ago. I wonder what it is about a particular draft class that makes them choose one or the other (assuming that I am right, of course...)

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

At #6 SF can grab a playmaker, depending on who goes off the board before them they could have: Hawk, Davis, Huff, Ngata, Fergusen may even drop to them.

At #22 they get a LT, Winston Justice may be gone, but Eric Winston and Darryn Colledge might interest them, they may have been eyeing Mankins at 33 last year and they can't be happy with a Bill's castoff at LT.

Further, they could trade out of #6 on draft day if the right offer comes along, for example: with Oakland sitting at #7, teams like Arizona, Minnesota, and maybe even Detroit might consider moving ahead to grab a QB.

As for Denver, This trade moves them back into the third round and positions them nicely in the first three rounds.