What is the celing for this defense?

[cstjohn17]

Not a great start, 27.3 PPG, 379 yards per game. Coming into the year I was hopeful they would be average (in the 19-20 PPG) range.

2010 NFL Team Total Stats - National Football League - ESPN


Interested in thoughts on how things will shake out. My expectations have been lowered to below average (20-22 PPG). I am just not sure how they get there.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

If this defense finished the 2010 season in the top 5 of scoring defenses, they will have exceeded my expectations. I certainly expect them to finish better than #16 (half). 17 or worse and we probably don't make the playoffs or get an early exit.

 

[resdubwhite]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

I'm hoping the floor has been found. then we can start thinking about the ceiling.

 

[sbpatfan]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

The only sample sizes worse than three is two and one.

 

[borg]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

Considering that offensively challenged teams have lit this D up, I can't really expect this group to be more effective vs some of the higher powered offenses that the Pats will face.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

What's with the 1-start hate? I thought this was a good, optimistic thread!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

The only sample sizes worse than three is two and one.

Statistically speaking.

The floor/ceiling question is perhaps a bit premature in the sense of the 2010 defense being unsettled:
-- McCourty is holding down one CB slot through three games, but the other slot remains to be claimed.
-- RDE has shifted between two DL, apparently with no clear master.
-- LDE is also unclaimed, though Brace does appear to have the inside track.
-- OLB is completely unsettled as young Mr. Cunningham is working into the mix and TBC is seeing a shifting of his assignments.
-- Safety is also in transition with Meriweather's self-described and apparent struggles.


Some of the sub-roles seem to have been determined (Wilhite, Pryor), but primary "starters" are still in contention. With no clear baseline for whom NE is using in the various roles and packages, I'm content to observe.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

What's with the 1-start hate? I thought this was a good, optimistic thread!

It is what it is, someone's self selected role in society; which we recognize, and having accounted for it, get back to the real purpose of the interweb, flame wars. :snob:

 

[Sicilian]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

Try not to think of the ceiling in terms of overall PPG allowed this season. Try to think of it in terms of how well can they be playing by the last month of the season. I think the offense can keep us in the hunt until then, so if the D can gel and play average or slightly above by December, that will work fine.

With so many question marks and young players, if we answer 1 question every two weeks we're in good shape. So far I think we've determined Brace can be effective at LE (reasonably so anyway).

We thought we'd answered the question to safety next to Meriweather with Chung's quick start, but now it seems Meriweather is questionable so that position is still up in the air.

OLB is still a question mark, though Cunningham looks like he has some skills. Hell, even Crable played a few downs, so who knows what's going to shake down.

Finally, the last big question is corner opposite McCourty.

Look for one of these question to take more shape after the Miami game, for better or for worse.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

What's with the 1-start hate? I thought this was a good, optimistic thread!

Someone else didn't think so. If you thought it was good, rate it 5 stars. The ratings reflect what people who cared to vote thought about the thread. It isn't necessariliy a conspiracy of hate. It is theoretically possible, you know, that someone might ... gasp ... not think the way you or I do. Sounds crazy, yes, but it just might be true.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

Someone else didn't think so. If you thought it was good, rate it 5 stars. The ratings reflect what people who cared to vote thought about the thread. It isn't necessariliy a conspiracy of hate. It is theoretically possible, you know, that someone might ... gasp ... not think the way you or I do. Sounds crazy, yes, but it just might be true.

Improbable, you all think the way I do - befuddled and opinionated.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

Try not to think of the ceiling in terms of overall PPG allowed this season. Try to think of it in terms of how well can they be playing by the last month of the season. I think the offense can keep us in the hunt until then, so if the D can gel and play average or slightly above by December, that will work fine.

Exactly. The Pats started on fire in 2002, and didn't make the playoffs.

But in 2001, they lost to the Dolphins week 4, giving up 30 points that could easily have been 90 (this was the gameBB buried the game ball and didn't show film of the game). The Pats started 1-3.

The defense gelled, peaking in January.

See also, the track of the Giants' D in 2007.

It's not how you start, but how you finish, and being super-hot in September is not always the best thing for a team.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

Re: What is the celing ofr this defense?

My ceiling is becoming a very good bend but don't break defense by the end of the year. Here are the things that need to happen for the ceiling to be reached.

1. A corner opposite McCourty needs to emerge, with so many young options I think it's probable we see improvement as the year goes on. Maybe Arrington shows he's a legit NFL starter. Maybe Wheatley comes back and plays better than he did in 08, maybe Butler comes back and shows the promise that made him starter to begin the season or maybe Wilhite finally learns how to make a play on the ball.

2. Cunningham or Crable (unlikely) emerge as a force at the outside linebacker spot. If one of those two can get consistent pressure to go along with solid play from TBC, the corners will have to cover for less time and end up looking better. That or we can consistently rush 4 and drop enough guys into coverage to stop teams from passing it.

3. Spikes and Mayo start to bury pass catchers across the middle. One overlooked aspect of the great defenses of yesteryear was the hitting. When an opponent would catch a pass in the middle Brian Cox or Bruschi would hit them so hard no one would want to go across the middle. As of now I feel like receivers and tight ends are finding soft spots in our zone then gaining yards instead of getting killed like they should be.

4. Merriweather ends up getting it, Chung improves his pass coverage. These two guys have the athleticism to blanket the field when teams pass and deliver haymakers when the other team runs. Having two extremely athletic safeties makes it very difficult on offenses provided they know where they need to be and what they need to do.

5. Brace continues his improvement, Warren becomes more familiar with the 3-4 base defense. A 3-4 defense begins with the front 3. If they can occupy blockers and stand their ground or push the defenders back the linebackers will make plays all game. If they can collapse the pocket then we don't have to blitz and our corners will have more help in coverage.

The ceiling of this defense is, athletic, fast, hard hitting, and knows exactly where they are supposed to be at all times. The most lacking area now has to do with knowledge. This facet should improve as the season progresses.