What does this draft tell us about the roster?

[Ochmed Jones]

I do think he's a CB, but let's see. I assume he's insurance against Bodden and competition for Arrington and Butler. But he does have the versatility that BB values in DBs. Ras-I could certainly go to FS... or, for that matter, so could Bodden. But, I think BB isn't too worried about having too many options in the secondary. Training camp will illuminate exactly what we've drafted.

Bodden to FS is an intriguing idea that I had not thought of,but makes some sense. Good Point.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Once again count on patchick to put forward the only intelligent question asked today.

Back in January I advanced the theory that DL was not going to be a draft priority for the Pats going forward, despite the DL having many top prospects in this draft and there seemingly being a chance to significantly upgrade the base 3-4.

Naturally I (and many others) assumed the Pats would instead try to find a DE/OLB player, but that player is notoriously difficult to find at a draft slot that maximizes value. So no surprise the Pats didn't make a pick there.

Naturally I (and many others) assumed the Pats would not go DB, but perhaps we misevaluated just how far out the door Meriweather is, the health of Leigh Bodden and/or, as patchick mentioned, the skills of Darius Butler. Anyways, it's a passing league.

I would like to note that each of the Pats' first three picks, OT Sodder, CB/S Dowling and RB Vereen, each project as 3-down players if the Pats hit on them. That seems to be the Pats' modus operandi at the top of drafts, and why I felt DL, or a pure sub-rusher, would not be taken.

I would not at all be surprised if the Pats threw another DL into the mix as a late draft choice, though you would expect OLB or OG flyers if they are available tomorrow, as there seems to be less depth there.

I think the two runningbacks selected were less about BJGE than they were about Sammy Morris's role and adding depth.

Funny how it's the more knowledgeable posters like patchick who always go back and check their assumptions. How many draft picks did you get right this time, 3 out of 5?

To sum up; most of us got it mostly wrong once again.

Excellant post. The more I marinate over today's picks, the more this post makes sense.

I am totally good on the RB picks. It's not about Ellis either. It as about the old guys behind him........ We needed to get much younger at this position. We did, in a major way.

Everyone though we were crazy taking 2 TE's last year too

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Excellant post. The more I marinate over today's picks, the more this post makes sense.

I am totally good on the RB picks. It's not about Ellis either. It as about the old guys behind him........ We needed to get much younger at this position. We did, in a major way.

Everyone though we were crazy taking 2 TE's last year too

And with Vereen, we added a ton of speed.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

And with Vereen, we added a ton of speed.

and that too ......

 

[Ochmed Jones]

and that too ......

Should be an interesting training camp to see how the carries shake out. I would feel better about the running game if Mankins is signed long term and we pick up an OG on day 3.

 

[Metaphors]

Obviously Belichick likes the 14-2 2010 squad. Returning just about everyone on the depth chart except Light and Neal (though this was Connolly at the end of the year). If Light returns on a 1-year deal and the team stays relatively healthy in 2011, the Pats can win without this draft class. So what does this draft class tell us?

- Belichick wants tackles that can survive on an island. Vollmer rarely needs help. With some coaching, Solder could reach that level as well. A risk at #17 but the upside is a relaxed Brady in the pocket with his eyes downfield scanning the maximum number of receivers.

- Belichick wants more big plays in the running game. BJGE and Woodhead were steady and dependable but rarely broke anything in the 2nd level. Maroney was mercilessly derided around here but he was a sweet runner once he got into space. The hope is that Vereen has that kind of ability without the vision and decision-making issues.

- Belichick wasn't happy that 3rd and 1.5 yds was a passing situation. Ridley specializes in getting tough yards in short yardage and goal line situations while still fitting a tailback profile.

- Belichick wasn't thrilled with the ability of the secondary to get the defense off the field (turnovers and 3rd down). The blame shifts between the CBs and safeties depending on matchups. Is Dowling a CB or S? Hopefully opposing QBs will be asking themselves that question before the snap.

- Belichick is content with the receivers and DL. Likely means Wright will recover, Deaderick isn't too much of a butthead, Warren is motivated, Stroud still has something in the tank and Price/Tate can threaten downfield. Sounds OK to me.

- Belichick thinks the interior OL is in reasonable shape. Once Boling goes (he won't be there in round 5), the OG pickings are slim. This is a vote of confidence for Connolly, Ohrnberger and (to a lesser degree) Austin. With plenty of centers still on the board, I fully expect Koppen 2.0 to be drafted tomorrow.

- Belichick didn't see the answer to the pass rush issues in this draft class. Since he knows the Pats need to deliver more pressure and there are likely 2 open spots at OLB on the roster, he must be thinking about trades or free agency at that position.

- Belichick found the talent cliff in this draft class around #75. At that point, why not go for a luxury pick (Mallett) or start turning picks into future assets?

- Belichick is prepared for the consequences of a lockout through the summer. Conversion projects would be difficult to pull off without camp/practice time. Solder may need some time so Light on a one year deal is still a possibility. Dowling shouldn't be pushed too quickly with plenty of DB candidates under contract (less so in 2012). The RBs can be brought in gradually behind BJGE and Woodhead. Mallett is on a multi-year plan.

The real question isn't whether or not this draft class made the Pats better on paper now or even when the season opens. A better question is whether or not this team will be better when it counts. That means winning the division, getting homefield and winning the Super Bowl. With the labor situation and an uncertain set of CBA rules to come, we will have to wait and see if the plan is a good one.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Funny how it's the more knowledgeable posters like patchick who always go back and check their assumptions. How many draft picks did you get right this time, 3 out of 5?

FWIW, some of us wanted Nate Solder as soon as we heard about his size and speed a year or two ago.

 

[supafly]

FWIW, some of us wanted Nate Solder as soon as we heard about his size and speed a year or two ago.

And some of us had the earlier high picks targeting QB, RB, and OL--and saw the obvious bigger picture with re-loading on offense...and a little thing called 'BPA.'

 

[ctpatsfan77]

- Belichick wants more big plays in the running game. BJGE and Woodhead were steady and dependable but rarely broke anything in the 2nd level. Maroney was mercilessly derided around here but he was a sweet runner once he got into space. The hope is that Vereen has that kind of ability without the vision and decision-making issues.

I'm not sure how far "the second level" is, but (A) almost no RB gets 20+ yards rushing more than ~5% of the time, and (B) Woodhead, at least, averaged 5.6 YPC, which was third among backs averaging 5+ carries a game.

 

[AzPatsFan]

A draft with an unexpected shape tends to point to fan misperceptions about the existing roster. For instance, a 1st-round CB in 2010 wouldn't have been any surprise at all if we hadn't all been penciling in Darius Butler as a starter. So let's read these tea leaves! Here's some conclusions I'm tempted to draw:

- No, despite his solid numbers LawFirm is not seen as a feature back by the team.

- The DL weakness at the end of last season reflected the incredible rash of injuries at the position more than a lack of talent. Add Ty Warren, Marcus Stroud, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor and (hopefully) Mike Wright to the mix and subtract Gerard Warren; even without a draft pick, the projected DL bears little resemblance to the one that lined up in the playoffs.

Hand the man the prize.

We have 9 DLs with some level of productivity, and you usually keep 5-7 linemen. There was never a NEED for a 5 technique 3-4 DE, (but it wouldn't be a bad idea).

In our best year we seldom carried more than 3 OLBs. Last year we started 2 new ones, Ninko, and Cunningham and spotted TBC, a former starter. The results were not spectacular, but they were not hopeless either.

OTOH, BB decided we needed some new RBs, another development QB, a little more depth at CB, and some young starting capability on the Oline. Every one of those needs was addressed.

Perhaps most Pats fans misread the Team needs, that BB diagnosed.

 

[fester]

- Belichick found the talent cliff in this draft class around #75. At that point, why not go for a luxury pick (Mallett) or start turning picks into future assets?

That is what most amazed me about the Raiders trade, not the pushing of a pick into 2012, but the opening of a 64 slot gap between picks (#74 and #138), the equivalent of two full rounds going with a pick. If there was enough guys on the board that made the Patriots late 3rd/mid 4th value grouping, I could have seen a 2011 3rd for a 2011 7th and 2012 3rd deal as standard operating procedure but the 2011 3rd and 4th being pushed forward was surprising and illuminating.

I guess it is telling us that the Patriots see this draft as a bit better than 2007 but not by a whole lot once the draft moves past the end of the second day.

 

[State]

FWIW, some of us wanted Nate Solder as soon as we heard about his size and speed a year or two ago.

He needs more lower body strength and reportedly (I've never seen him play) need to play lower, according to some draftniks like Kiper. Correctable problems if he's willing to work.

I think he is and he's obviously intelligent besides being incredibly gifted with size and athleticism.

But I've also come across something that's troubling. He doesn't have a nasty side like Mankins and Light...and like Danny Watkins that would have been a perfect Patriots fit.

Could someone find me the video of him burying people, pancaking them? I saw Jake Long do that multiple times every freakin' game when he played in college.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well, that was an interesting evening.

-- Ras-I Dowling (profile): A solid pick-up when no trades materialized. 6' 1 3/8", 198, 4.4/40 -- Dowling's profile paints a big play making CB in the McCourty mould. Entering Brandon Meriweather's contract season, the addition of another big CB, as big as Meriweather himself, makes you think of the three big CBs - all 5' 11" or better, 195-200 - and consider BB's argument that having four CBs on the field is a necessary response to 3-4-5 wide offensive formations. Perhaps in 2012 veteran Leigh Bodden, entering what will be his 10th season, may be asked to move to FS, or Dowling himself, considered a bit straight line in his play, will be moved to FS where his 6' 1" frame and impressive jumping ability will be helpful in covering the giants popular in NFL receiving corps.

-- Shane Vereen (profile): A durable and highly productive third down RB, exactly as Coach Fears specified at the draft party the other evening. 5' 10", 210, 4.49/40 -- Quicker than fast, Vereen contributes in the run, return, and passing games, and looks to be a fine addition to a thinning backfield awaiting Green-Ellis' signed RFA tender with the three elder statesman all unlikely to return. Much like Kevin Faulk, Vereen's one area of concern coming out of school as a junior is ball security when making a move in the open field.

-- Stevan Ridley (profile): An SEC breakout performer who elected to leave school early. 5' 11 1/4", 225, 4.65/40 -- For all his youth, Ridley is a team captain who earned his way on Special Teams before winning a more active role in the offense. Fellow fans who follow the SEC report he was often used to control the clock and preserve late leads, moving the chains despite opponents stacking the box to stop him. He possesses good vision, surprising burst into the hole, and is credited in his profile as strong in blitz p/u. Ridley reads like the perfect Patriot big back whose contribution on passing downs will limit teams from keying on him in the run game.

-- Ryan Mallett (profile): An strong-armed, pocket passer in the Drew Bledsoe style. 6' 6 3/4", 253, 5.37/40 -- Mike Mayock claims Mallett is his number one QB in terms of talent and the best pure passer in the class. The son of a coach, Mallett is reputed to be very intelligent and strong in board drills with the coaches who examined him before the draft. Mallett slipped due to maturity and off-field concerns. New England's strong locker room and the example of Tom Brady are expected to be an excellent environment to permit him to mature into the leadership role his talent has created for him.

Combined with the first round draft of OT Nate Solder, NE has focused this draft on rebuilding an aging offense which was highly productive in 2010, but has melted down in the playoffs the past two seasons.

A tip of the hat to Metaphors for coming closest to this point I observed early this morning before nodding off at the keyboard.

Yet another item of note; on day two BB specifically drafted for players who can quickly contribute despite the expectation of a shortened offseason for player development:
-- Dowling grew up in the Al Groh defense at Virginia, a version of the same one BB runs in New England.
-- As RBs, Vereen and Ridley are more likely to contribute quickly with minimal lead time.
-- A reserve QB, Mallett is a clipboard holding intern not expected to contribute much early.

 

[bucky]

You have a point, to a certain degree.

I agree Green-Ellis is definitely upgradeable even though he really fumbles.

However on the defensive side of the ball. I do not share your belief. No one can convince me that Wilkerson is NOT an upgrade over Deaderick, G Warren, Brace or Stroud.

Deaderick is actually a very talented player. If (and it's a big if) his personal issues get resolved, he can be a 3 down DL for this team.

And in the case of Sheard, can anybody here say with a straight face that he is not capable of starting over TBC or Ninkovich or Moore from day one.

Now this is really a stretch. How can you, or anybody, make such a statement considering Sheard has played almost his entire college career out of a 3 point stance and was drafted by a 4-3 team. Sheard is a similar collegiate player to Cunnigham - but would be 1 year behind him in terms of adjusting to the 34.

 

[bucky]

Yet another item of note; on day two BB specifically drafted for players who can quickly contribute despite the expectation of a shortened offseason for player development:
-- Dowling grew up in the Al Groh defense at Virginia, a version of the same one BB runs in New England.
-- As RBs, Vereen and Ridley are more likely to contribute quickly with minimal lead time.
-- A reserve QB, Mallett is a clipboard holding intern not expected to contribute much early.

I think this is a very nice observation. Another observation - a more simplistic one - is that BB chose players in round 3 that he knew would make the team (given there are only 2 RBs on the roster). Clearly, there were no OL or OLB prospects on the board that graded out like players guaranteed to make the team. I still expect something to happen at these positions on day 3.

 

[patchick]

Lots of good food for thought here...

The one inference that I think we can draw is that the Patriots don't see a future for Matt Light.

Yep, it does look that way. And with a position like LT, you don't want to wait until your QB is getting clobbered to say "huh, I guess we should draft a tackle next year."

No one can convince me that Wilkerson is NOT an upgrade over Deaderick, G Warren, Brace or Stroud.

This is a case of BB falling in love with the acquiring future picks and ignoring immediate needs.

And in the case of Sheard, can anybody here say with a straight face that he is not capable of starting over TBC or Ninkovich or Moore from day one.

I think BB's pride and stubbornness have left their fingerprints all over this draft.

Hey, I'm not trying to convince you. :confused2: I was all for grabbing both Wilkerson and Sheard. I'm just trying to read the tea leaves -- and "pride and stubbornness" in focusing on future picks doesn't make sense to me as an interpretation. BB could have easily traded #28 AND taken Wilkerson if he wanted to. The teams at 26 & 27 were trying like mad to trade down; 33 + 90 would have easily done the trick.

 

[everlong]

My conclusions are that Morris is out and Faulk is at best one more season. Light is likely gone unless they think he can move to guard.

I think Dowling and Bodden will both see time at FS in training camp.

Certainly it's hard to argue with the value they got with any of their picks but I look at the weaknesses coming into the draft and I wonder how is the front 7 any better? Assuming Ty Warren returns to form they are instantly better there. Cunningham and Spikes with another year in the system should make them better. But when you have a 27-24 lead in the 4th quarter who's going to push the pocket inside or out? This was the 25th ranked defense for a reason. I find it hard to believe that all of the DE and OLBs prospects they passed on couldn't have added something the existing cast does not. Sure Ninkovich might be a better all around OLB right now than insert your favorite here but in those situations a specialist who can come in and cause the other team to account for him could be invaluable.

I think with the new rules the bend but don't break is antiquated. With the volume of sub-packages the Pats are in to begin with it just doesn't make sense not to have somebody, anybody, who can pin their ears back and make an impact play.

They still need to address RG and C on day two. Apparently they are also fine with the current set of WRs and are not going after a vertical threat. I haven't looked at who's left but maybe they can pick up the OLB pass rushing specialist today.

I certainly don't think anybody saw OT, CB, 2 RB and QB as being the picks from the first two days.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Certainly it's hard to argue with the value they got with any of their picks but I look at the weaknesses coming into the draft and I wonder how is the front 7 any better? Assuming Ty Warren returns to form they are instantly better there. Cunningham and Spikes with another year in the system should make them better. But when you have a 27-24 lead in the 4th quarter who's going to push the pocket inside or out? This was the 25th ranked defense for a reason. I find it hard to believe that all of the DE and OLBs prospects they passed on couldn't have added something the existing cast does not. Sure Ninkovich might be a better all around OLB right now than insert your favorite here but in those situations a specialist who can come in and cause the other team to account for him could be invaluable.

Yet it appears you have correctly answered your own question by noting how time, and a return to health, is working to create the experience a young unit needs to be an elite unit. You do argue for a "specialist" to create pressure in a narrow window, but as we often see, players get injured and someone else must attempt to fill the role. We know NE favors players who only "specialize" in being terrific football players capable of executing any assignment at a fairly high level - it's been a jack-of-all-trades program ever since Coach Belichick shook Bob Kraft's hand. CB Troy Brown says it works. FB Russ Hochstein says it works. QB Matt Cassel says it works. Plug and play the New England Patriots' Way. Works for me.

I think with the new rules the bend but don't break is antiquated. With the volume of sub-packages the Pats are in to begin with it just doesn't make sense not to have somebody, anybody, who can pin their ears back and make an impact play.

I disagree. Not only does it still work, but I enjoy rooting for a team where Joe Schmoe, subbing in for an injured fan favorite, is making the same plays as Mr. FF. Consistency, and it only gets better with experience and practice. The youngest secondary, second youngest defense, patience my friend.

They still need to address RG and C on day two. Apparently they are also fine with the current set of WRs and are not going after a vertical threat. I haven't looked at who's left but maybe they can pick up the OLB pass rushing specialist today.

The trade maneuvers which have given NE two fifths, a sixth, and a seventh for today actually work better for RG and C as I scored the better "NE fits" for this draft. Solder was the only OL I saw for NE in rounds one and two - there were others I liked, but for NE they needed to go in round three or later. The meat of the interior OL pool begins in round five to my thinking, should be fun.

 

[bucky]

My conclusions are that Morris is out and Faulk is at best one more season. Light is likely gone unless they think he can move to guard.

I think Light will probably be back. I would keep Light at LT for 1 more year and move him to LG for another year or 2. What's interesting about the Solder pick is that they seem to like Vollmer better at RT. I would have thought he can easily transition to LT.

The Dowling pick seems to indicate that Merriweather may not be around much longer, which is perfectly fine by me.

And alas, it would appear that the Kevin Faulk era is over.

 

[Seneschal2]

A draft with an unexpected shape tends to point to fan misperceptions about the existing roster.

Regardless of the draft's configuration, the process of perceiving will ALWAYS be susceptible to restrictions.

Pre-draft, the fans are never privy to the true performance evaluations, health statuses, and contract considerations of ANY roster player. Handicapped -- we are.

So let's read these tea leaves! Here's some conclusions I'm tempted to draw:

- No, despite his solid numbers LawFirm is not seen as a feature back by the team.

My opinion for some time now, even though he's solid. I would like to give credit to all the fans who predicted the RB position did not need to be addressed until after round one. As we know, several RB options were available.

- The DL weakness at the end of last season reflected the incredible rash of injuries at the position more than a lack of talent. Add Ty Warren, Marcus Stroud, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor and (hopefully) Mike Wright to the mix and subtract Gerard Warren; even without a draft pick, the projected DL bears little resemblance to the one that lined up in the playoffs.

Warren specifically, IMHO was undervalued throughout the season. A player with Warren's skills will complement Vince more than anyone else on the roster. There was a void seen with these eyes throughout the season, as BB worked mightily with the hand he was dealt. And as I alluded to earlier, this fan wasn't privy to the health status of both Warren and Wright, leading to a speculative prediction of BB double-dipping at the position. I guess their health is A-OK.