What does this draft tell us about the roster?

[patchick]

A draft with an unexpected shape tends to point to fan misperceptions about the existing roster. For instance, a 1st-round CB in 2010 wouldn't have been any surprise at all if we hadn't all been penciling in Darius Butler as a starter. So let's read these tea leaves! Here's some conclusions I'm tempted to draw:

- No, despite his solid numbers LawFirm is not seen as a feature back by the team.

- The DL weakness at the end of last season reflected the incredible rash of injuries at the position more than a lack of talent. Add Ty Warren, Marcus Stroud, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor and (hopefully) Mike Wright to the mix and subtract Gerard Warren; even without a draft pick, the projected DL bears little resemblance to the one that lined up in the playoffs.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

You have a point, to a certain degree.

I agree Green-Ellis is definitely upgradeable even though he really fumbles.

However on the defensive side of the ball. I do not share your belief. No one can convince me that Wilkerson is NOT an upgrade over Deaderick, G Warren, Brace or Stroud.

This is a case of BB falling in love with the acquiring future picks and ignoring immediate needs.

And in the case of Sheard, can anybody here say with a straight face that he is not capable of starting over TBC or Ninkovich or Moore from day one.

I think BB's pride and stubbornness have left their fingerprints all over this draft.

And it starts with all the draftniks saying we need defensive front seven players and BB saying, "I am going to show them!"

The next thing you know is all we have on defense is an often injured joke named Dowling and the Jets have two powerful D Line players each capable of roasting Koppen and/or Connelly at will.

No wonder Ryan keeps needling BB, only good things come to the Jets from it.

 

[manxman2601]

When you look at who of the front 7 possibilities in this draft that the Patriots had in for a private workout (Cam Jordan, Wilkerson, Bailey, Reed, Ellis), BB obviously didn't feel that they offered much in the way of an upgrade to what the Pats already have. It's not as though it's a failure in judgement or scouting, the Pats had a close look at these guys and obviously didn't like what they saw.

 

[silenthuntr7]

I like your DL point...I didn't feel that it was as big a need as people were making it out to be.

Other points:

-With the amount of secondary contracts expiring this year, could Dowling be a future FS?
-BB feels more confident in the guards than we thought. Perhaps Ohrnberger and/or Wendell are ready, or they're prepared to unload the brinks truck for Mankins.
-The staff see Cunningham as a 8-10 year solution at OLB.
-We're keeping 5RBs again.
-BB has an OLB target in FA, methinks.

 

[WeezyFbaby]

Ya... Im sure BB listens to the media heads and says "Ill show them" get real this board is almost unbearable with the freak out fans.

RELAX.

You dont win 3 superbowls and lead the league in winning percentage for a decade with an idiot running the helms.

Your getting two all pro players back on defense with warren and bodden add to this free agency still to come and another year of experience for cunningham, mcourty, spikes, butler, arrington, brace and chung.

This defence is going to be incredible sooner before later. Add in Dowling who i think was the second best corner in this draft and TB on the other side of the ball good god look out.

this team was 14-2 not 2-14 you add depth and long term support to ensure you stay with the elite, you add free agents for current years and push yourself over the top.

If the Pats first game was tomorrow i would be VERY confident with this roster.

 

[manxman2601]

You have a point, to a certain degree.

I agree Green-Ellis is definitely upgradeable even though he really fumbles.

However on the defensive side of the ball. I do not share your belief. No one can convince me that Wilkerson is NOT an upgrade over Deaderick, G Warren, Brace or Stroud.

This is a case of BB falling in love with the acquiring future picks and ignoring immediate needs.

And in the case of Sheard, can anybody here say with a straight face that he is not capable of starting over TBC or Ninkovich or Moore from day one.

I think BB's pride and stubbornness have left their fingerprints all over this draft.

And it starts with all the draftniks saying we need defensive front seven players and BB saying, "I am going to show them!"

The next thing you know is all we have on defense is an often injured joke named Dowling and the Jets have two powerful D Line players each capable of roasting Koppen and/or Connelly at will.

No wonder Ryan keeps needling BB, only good things come to the Jets from it.

I'm not sure one of the best head coaches in the history of the league behaves like a seven year old in the playground.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I like your DL point...I didn't feel that it was as big a need as people were making it out to be.

Other points:

-With the amount of secondary contracts expiring this year, could Dowling be a future FS?
-BB feels more confident in the guards than we thought. Perhaps Ohrnberger and/or Wendell are ready, or they're prepared to unload the brinks truck for Mankins.
-The staff see Cunningham as a 8-10 year solution at OLB.
-We're keeping 5RBs again.
-BB has an OLB target in FA, methinks.

I think you are correct. Dowling probably moving over to safety, if BB can get him off the trainer's table.

What FA could BB be looking at for OLB? Wouldn't that FA be much more expensive than Sheard in the second round?

 

[jeffbiologist]

The way I see it is that they were on a cost cutting mission. Light, a popular and successful LT is a FA and instead of stepping up and letting him retire a Patriot they drafted his replacement. Light wont move inside, we cant sit #17 pick, something has to give and the fact he was a players rep cant be overlooked. We have to have vets like Light on this team because you want to have role models that these young players aspire to. Not everyone can relate to TB. The Dowling pick isnt a direct shot at Butler, it may well be one at Bodden though. Coming off injury we dont know how he will come back and he is on the books making serious $$. Making these positions cheaper allows more "cap" room going into Free Agency. I have no problems with either the Mallett or the RBs taken, again the RBs will be lowering the RB cost. 1 RB position open means it may be the incubent who takes the least $$ who keeps his job. No G to me means they are happy with Connolly at one of the G spots and that Kaczur may be in play at the other...still. Which only undervalues that position right? So in conclusion I see the draft as clearing wood, dead or alive, and making way for what has to be a big $$ FA in the front 7. We can only hope.

 

[Triumph]

That BB is fed up with Butler and that he belongs working at Burger King.

That NE now has one the youngest RB stables in the NFL instead of old retreads that never seem to work out as of late.

That Free Agency will bring a pass rusher.

 

[mgteich]

SOME THOUGHTS

RUNNING BACK
I conclude that Green-Ellis doesn't even have a contract. He'll play this year, but there is no guarantee of his signing a long-tern deal.

I conclude that having the oldest three running backs in the league because we can't secure RB's in the draft had to stop.

Belichick thought that he didn't have to jump on Ingram. He ended up with Vareen and a 2012 1st instead. Looking abck, I'm sure he's fine with how it worked out.

CORNER
I have no conclusions since we didn't draft a corner. Dowling could play nickel if needed.
But we are fine at corner with Bodden, McCourty, Arrington, Butler and Wilhite. Perhaps we can afford to carry only four corners, with Dowling available.

SAFETY
We have two safeties in their contract year. We needed a safety.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE
I conclude that Light and Kaczur aren't the future. Besides VOllmer is only signed through 2012.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN
As has been the case for many years, Belichick likes what we have more than posters do.
We have a young defense. We will add Ty Warren, Stroud, Bodden, and Dowling.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

You dont win 3 superbowls and lead the league in winning percentage for a decade with an idiot running the helms.

You don't win 3 SB without a bunch of defensive leaders leftover from the Parcells days.

Since the Parcells defensive leaders left, just how many SB's has BB won with his group of draftees and free agents?

The point is BB's constant ignoring of the OLB position and constant trading into the future is potentially costing us championships in the present.

 

[unoriginal]

Once again count on patchick to put forward the only intelligent question asked today.

Back in January I advanced the theory that DL was not going to be a draft priority for the Pats going forward, despite the DL having many top prospects in this draft and there seemingly being a chance to significantly upgrade the base 3-4.

Naturally I (and many others) assumed the Pats would instead try to find a DE/OLB player, but that player is notoriously difficult to find at a draft slot that maximizes value. So no surprise the Pats didn't make a pick there.

Naturally I (and many others) assumed the Pats would not go DB, but perhaps we misevaluated just how far out the door Meriweather is, the health of Leigh Bodden and/or, as patchick mentioned, the skills of Darius Butler. Anyways, it's a passing league.

I would like to note that each of the Pats' first three picks, OT Sodder, CB/S Dowling and RB Vereen, each project as 3-down players if the Pats hit on them. That seems to be the Pats' modus operandi at the top of drafts, and why I felt DL, or a pure sub-rusher, would not be taken.

I would not at all be surprised if the Pats threw another DL into the mix as a late draft choice, though you would expect OLB or OG flyers if they are available tomorrow, as there seems to be less depth there.

I think the two runningbacks selected were less about BJGE than they were about Sammy Morris's role and adding depth.

Funny how it's the more knowledgeable posters like patchick who always go back and check their assumptions. How many draft picks did you get right this time, 3 out of 5?

To sum up; most of us got it mostly wrong once again.

 

[ayjackson]

When you look at who of the front 7 possibilities in this draft that the Patriots had in for a private workout (Cam Jordan, Wilkerson, Bailey, Reed, Ellis), BB obviously didn't feel that they offered much in the way of an upgrade to what the Pats already have. It's not as though it's a failure in judgement or scouting, the Pats had a close look at these guys and obviously didn't like what they saw.

What???? Are you saying the Pats may know what they're doing and have more information and knowledge to draw upon compared to the average fan.

C'mon people, it's fine to be disappointed that they didn't draft a player you liked, but how anybody can pass judgement on the draft and management after three rounds and after a dozen some-odd years is mind boggling.

 

[rookBoston]

Disagree that this is a vote of no confidence in Green-Ellis, or a diminishing role. What I understand in drafting two RBs is that Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Fred Taylor are at the end of their careers.

Overall, what this draft tells me is that BB is pretty satisfied with his young 14-2 team.

He adds a difference maker in the secondary which should put Bulter on alert. And, other than that, what he's done is replaced a lot of veterans with kids that have good character, athleticism and smarts, invested a pick in a developmental QB that he can hopefully flip in a few years, and pushed more draft value into 2011 so he can do the same thing next year too.

How can any Pats fan be surprised? He is nothing if not consistent.

 

[Mike the Brit]

A draft with an unexpected shape tends to point to fan misperceptions about the existing roster. For instance, a 1st-round CB in 2010 wouldn't have been any surprise at all if we hadn't all been penciling in Darius Butler as a starter. So let's read these tea leaves! Here's some conclusions I'm tempted to draw:

- No, despite his solid numbers LawFirm is not seen as a feature back by the team.

- The DL weakness at the end of last season reflected the incredible rash of injuries at the position more than a lack of talent. Add Ty Warren, Marcus Stroud, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor and (hopefully) Mike Wright to the mix and subtract Gerard Warren; even without a draft pick, the projected DL bears little resemblance to the one that lined up in the playoffs.

The one inference that I think we can draw is that the Patriots don't see a future for Matt Light. I'm emotionally invested here, since I love and admire Light, but the message I get is that they can't see Light being a Patriot for more than a couple of years, at most (unless they're really planning to let him end his career as a guard).

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Disagree that this is a vote of no confidence in Green-Ellis, or a diminishing role. What I understand in drafting two RBs is that Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Fred Taylor are at the end of their careers.

Overall, what this draft tells me is that BB is pretty satisfied with his young 14-2 team.

He adds a difference maker in the secondary which should put Bulter on alert. And, other than that, what he's done is replaced a lot of veterans with kids that have good character, athleticism and smarts, invested a pick in a developmental QB that he can hopefully flip in a few years, and pushed more draft value into 2011 so he can do the same thing next year too.

How can any Pats fan be surprised? He is nothing if not consistent.

Butler or Merriweather? I am thinking Dowling is a safety and Merriweather needs to step it up big time.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

A draft with an unexpected shape tends to point to fan misperceptions about the existing roster. For instance, a 1st-round CB in 2010 wouldn't have been any surprise at all if we hadn't all been penciling in Darius Butler as a starter. So let's read these tea leaves! Here's some conclusions I'm tempted to draw:

- No, despite his solid numbers LawFirm is not seen as a feature back by the team.

- The DL weakness at the end of last season reflected the incredible rash of injuries at the position more than a lack of talent. Add Ty Warren, Marcus Stroud, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor and (hopefully) Mike Wright to the mix and subtract Gerard Warren; even without a draft pick, the projected DL bears little resemblance to the one that lined up in the playoffs.

Asked....

SOME THOUGHTS

RUNNING BACK
I conclude that Green-Ellis doesn't even have a contract. He'll play this year, but there is no guarantee of his signing a long-tern deal.

I conclude that having the oldest three running backs in the league because we can't secure RB's in the draft had to stop.

Belichick thought that he didn't have to jump on Ingram. He ended up with Vareen and a 2012 1st instead. Looking abck, I'm sure he's fine with how it worked out.

CORNER
I have no conclusions since we didn't draft a corner. Dowling could play nickel if needed.
But we are fine at corner with Bodden, McCourty, Arrington, Butler and Wilhite. Perhaps we can afford to carry only four corners, with Dowling available.

SAFETY
We have two safeties in their contract year. We needed a safety.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE
I conclude that Light and Kaczur aren't the future. Besides VOllmer is only signed through 2012.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN
As has been the case for many years, Belichick likes what we have more than posters do.
We have a young defense. We will add Ty Warren, Stroud, Bodden, and Dowling.

Answered....

I agree. I think the RB picks have more to do with restocking depth through the draft then through FA, which hasn't exactly worked out great for us in a few years.

I think the Dowling pick was nothing more then a value pick..... Hey, here's this guy at 33, we're not drawing the action with thought we were at this pick. Let's take a flyer on him, and best case..... he makes Bodden (and his $$ expendable), and worst case.... gives us a breathing body at a position that notoriously we chew through over the course of a season.

DL..... what mg said.... I think BB feels pretty comfortable with what we have and that last years issues were related to injuries.

 

[mgteich]

Meriweather and Sanders are in their contract years. There is no reason to believe that they would both be back in 2012. We needed to develop a safety.

I don't expect Dowling to be a major contributer as a rookie. The situation is similar to when Chung was drafted.

Butler or Merriweather? I am thinking Dowling is a safety and Merriweather needs to step it up big time.

 

[rookBoston]

Butler or Merriweather? I am thinking Dowling is a safety and Merriweather needs to step it up big time.

I do think he's a CB, but let's see. I assume he's insurance against Bodden and competition for Arrington and Butler. But he does have the versatility that BB values in DBs. Ras-I could certainly go to FS... or, for that matter, so could Bodden. But, I think BB isn't too worried about having too many options in the secondary. Training camp will illuminate exactly what we've drafted.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Meriweather and Sanders are in their contract years. There is no reason to believe that they would both be back in 2012. We needed to develop a safety.

I don't expect Dowling to be a major contributer as a rookie. The situation is similar to when Chung was drafted.

I think safety in the Pats defense has more pre-snap calls to make and responsibilities than playing CB. I can see why it would take a rookie an extra year to learn it all.

I am hoping for a huge season out of Chung.