The dictionary defines "favorite" as "a competitor judged most likely to win." That said, most analysts consider the Patriots to be favorites to win the Super Bowl since their odds are higher than any other team. Most simulations have the Patriots winning the Super Bowl in 20-25% of simulations. When forecasting the season using really smart computers, the Patriots ultimately fail to win it all in 75-80% of simulations, the lowest percentage in the NFL. If the Patriots were to have a 20-25% chance of winning a given football game, they would likely be be a 10+ point underdog. In other words, the Patriots chances of winning the Super Bowl is roughly equivalent to the Bills beating the Patriots tonight. In a simulation of "The Patriots vs. The Field" (where the field is the other 31 teams), the Patriots are not likely to win. Does anyone really think they should be called "favorites" to win the Super Bowl? Personally I consider a team to be "favored" if their odds are better than 50%. I'm tired of hearing about how we are the "favorites." Bottom line is, every team is the underdog going into the season. Just a thought about expectations.... Another interesting note. When Tom Brady went down after game 1 last season, the Patriots went from winning the Super Bowl in 30% of simulations to winning it 5-6% of simulations. When Richard Seymour was traded last week, the simulations were barely changed. So much for the idea that Seymour is the "Brady of the defense." The two players that are far and away the most valuable are Brady and Moss. Welker would be third, and then it's a gigantic dropoff.