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What chance did/do you gave/give the Patriots in each SB

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATSNUTme, Jan 29, 2012.

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  1. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Here are the chances that I gave/give the Patriots to win each of the SB's that they played and will play this Sunday.

    1986 Bears- about a 10% chance. Had hope and prayers but gave them no chance. Even "Berry the Bears" did nothing for me.
    1996- This one I gave the about a 40% chance based on the "Parcells factor" (over rated)
    2001- Really thought less than 25% chance. I was hoping that they would not get blown out and become the Bills or the Vikings. Gave them a punchers chance, as they say in boxing
    2003- Certainly in this one I gave them 65% or better to win it. But never expected an offensive shootout in the 4th quarter.
    2004- High confidence 75-80%. There was little doubt in my mind.
    2007- Extremely high confidence that the Patriot would win in a blowout-90-95%- enough said.:(
    2012- I have this in my head as 50-50. It could be a blowout by either team. it could be a high scoring shootout or low scoring nail biter. I just don't have a feel for this game at all.

    OK, lets see some others. If you say that you can't remember, you are either lying or have had head trauma.:D
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  2. Bella*chick

    Bella*chick Addicted to the light

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    #12 Jersey

    That is basically the same as I felt about each game.
     
  3. PatsGirl2011

    PatsGirl2011 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Hmm...
    2001-I just prayed...hehe
    2003-Lil nervous especially Carolina was a hot and young team.
    2004-No doubt
    In 2007- I was 50/50. Never was confident going into the game especially since the Pats were not playing well at all in prior games.
    2012- I am about 65/35-Think they should win if they protect Brady
     
  4. letekro

    letekro In the Starting Line-Up

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    86 - 0.0%

    96 - 40%

    01 - 50%

    03 - 65%

    04 - 80%

    07 - 95%

    11 - 45%
     
  5. Harry Yelreh

    Harry Yelreh On the Roster

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    '85: 0%
    '96: 25%
    '01: 50%
    '03: 80%
    '04: 90%
    '07: 90%
    '11: 51% (and rising)
     
  6. oldskool138

    oldskool138 In the Starting Line-Up

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    #75 Jersey

    96 - 40%
    01 - 40%
    03 - 65%
    04 - 75%
    07 - 95%
    11 - 50%
     
  7. Jangles

    Jangles PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't know

    I saw a poster earlier say how the giants have been playing over their heads and their level of success cannot continue.

    I feel like we're in the same boat. Yeah the offense can be great, but it's not invincible. Especially with Gronk hurt. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him on the IR as a game day decision, only to hold him out.

    I also don't know if our defense has actually improved, or if they just feasted on an overmatched Tebow, and Joe Flacco. Eli is a good to great QB, with a pretty solid receiving corps. I hate to be the negative Nancy, but I don't feel good about this game at all. I'd say I'm giving them a 20% chance. I truly think Gronk will be too injured to do much, and I think or defense is going to look like the same unit from the first 16 games.

    I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong on all of that though.
     
  8. FortressX

    FortressX On the Game Day Roster

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    #87 Jersey

    Good = 50% - 80% of winning
    Excellent = 80% - 100% of winning.

    85 - Good
    96 - Excellent
    2001 - Good
    2003 - Good
    2004 - Excellent
    2007 - Excellent
    2011 - Good
     
  9. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Here's how I felt going into each

    85 - 05%

    96 - 50%

    01 - 60%

    03 - 99%

    04 - 99%
    I was living in Las Vegas at the time and I recall saying to a
    poker dealer there is no team in the NFC that can beat them.
    He wasn't as convinced.

    07 - 99%

    11 - 75%
    I don't see them letting this one get away. But,
    I'll give Eli the luck factor and 25% chance.
     
  10. strngplyr

    strngplyr In the Starting Line-Up

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    I don't like rating my confidence or predicting who wins normally, but I feel pretty confident about this game. I also feel the "calmest" I've ever been before a SB. I think this will be another 3 point game, like all our other SB's in the BB/TB era. But, I feel confident.
     
  11. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #91 Jersey

    50/50 I'd give the same odds to the Giants too.
     
  12. Dragda

    Dragda Yes, it's really me... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #93 Jersey

    I was young and dumb enough in SB XX that I thought we had a chance.

    I was mature enough in each that follow that I didn't expect anything.
     
  13. BoTown

    BoTown In the Starting Line-Up

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    SB XXXI - Felt good, not great. Definitely could feel Green Bay was superior, hoped for an upset. Disappointed but hardly surprised at final result.

    SB XXXVI - Supremely confident. Felt destined to win despite the underdog tag. Kept remembering how close their earlier contest against the Rams was. Felt dread when Rams tied late, felt very confident when Pats elected not to kneel. Jubilant that I witnessed a Boston sports title for the first time in my life, as I was too young for the Bird era Celtics.

    SB XXXVIII - Thought it was a given. Felt Pats were simply better than Panthers. Game was closer than I imagined. Wasn't too nervous when Panthers took late lead. Brady magic, Vinatieri FG, just as expected.

    SB XXXIX - Confident from AFC playoff performance and figured we'd shut Freddie Mitchell up (we did :D). Slightly concerned that Eagles were evenly matched. Eagles lack of clock management eased my worries. Pats win close as expected.

    SB XLII - Nervous wreck. Hated the media hitjob, wanted the Pats to win to spite all the haters. More nervous about Walsh/Tomase story being a distraction. Talked myself into Pats blowout but felt something was wrong, Giants had "the look". Relieved when Moss scored the TD, terrified when I saw how much time was left in the game. I don't want to talk about what happened afterward.

    SB XLVI - Feels like 2001 again. Giants big favorite amongst media and public, despite deceptive vegas line. Everyone on Giants side a little too cokcy. Feel like Brady is going to have the game of his life. Feels like a Pats win is meant to be, against what my logical side thinks.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 29, 2012
  14. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    vs Bears: I was so caught up with the Squish the Fish euphoria of the Pats making it to the Super Bowl that I actually convinced myself the Pats were a team of destiny, everyone was overrating the Bears and underrating the Pats and that the Pats would win that game. I'd say I was foolishly about 70% confident.

    vs Packers: If I recall correctly the Pats were about a 13 or 14 point underdog which I thought was way too high, but I did feel Green Bay was definitely the better team. I suppose I'd put my confidence in the Pats winning around 25%

    vs Rams: After appearing in two Super Bowls and losing both by a combined total of fifty points, all I was hoping for was that they have a respectable showing and not get blown out. 10%

    vs Panthers: Coming off a 14-2 season, with a team experienced in playing the big game against a Carolina team that was probably only the 4th best team in the NFC, I had no doubt the Pats would win. 90%

    vs Eagles: Another 14-2 season with an offense that was significantly better than the previous year. Even though the Eagles were better than the Panthers I was still very confident the Pats would win. 90%

    vs Giants: There was so much pressure to go 19-0, plus all the distractions from what seemed like a new allegation on a daily basis. Brady in the walking boot and the team not playing nearly as well down the stretch (Eagles, Ravens, Jets and then Giants) were troublesome. I was obviously elated that the Pats beat the Chargers in the AFCCG, but even that win seemed to be more difficult than it should have been. 60%

    vs Giants II: While I can find plenty of reasons why the Giants could win this game, I see just as many counterpoints for why the Pats should win. 55%
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  15. Sparetire

    Sparetire Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    #24 Jersey

    86 - i dont know was too little
    97- 40%
    01 - 30%
    03 - 60%
    04 - 70%
    07 - 90%
    2012 - 45%
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  16. PatsDeb

    PatsDeb PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    1985 - thought we had no chance, but hoped we could keep it close. Ha.
    1997 - 50/50 thought we could win with Parcels
    2001 - Just happy to be there. Didn't have a clue how we'd do.
    2003 - Thought we'd win in a blowout. Turned into a back-and-forth shoot out that almost gave me a heart attack.
    2004 - Confident we would win, but no longer thinking about a superbowl blowout (see above)
    2007 - Sure we would win. Devastated when we didn't.
    2011 - Back to 50/50. Playoff losses since 2007 no longer have me going into games sure we will win.

    It feels like we should win. God, I hope we do!! GO PATS!!
     
  17. Poker

    Poker Practice Squad Player

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    The reality of all those games, certainly since free agency/parity:

    All were probably really close to 50/50: No NFL game is 90/10 or 85/15 ever between 2 teams. By the time the 2 final teams get to the super bowl, it's very close to a coin flip. The media gyrates to extremes, but if the teams played 20 times, it would be 9-11 wins each.
     
  18. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    1985 It really sucked that after waiting all those years, we end up facing what may have been the best team ever. Deep down maybe 10%
    1996 Definitely bought into the Parcells 'you get us there and I'll make sure we win it' line and thought we had a decent chance to win. Probabyl convinced myself it was 50/50. If I knew the Tuna had already checked out I would have put it at the same 10%.
    2001 I truly believed in that team. I really expected a win, but would not have been shocked by a loss, so maybe 60%
    2003 90%. After beating Tenn and Indy, facing Carolina seemed like an easy win.
    2004. 80%. 8-0 in the playoffs outweighed Gay, Brown and Moreland in the secondary. Believing McNab was the most overrated QB in the NFL helped too.
    2007 110%. The thought that it was possible we could lose that game was never a realistic possibility to me until the clock was 0:00. Literally "wait can that actually happen?"
    2011 Very confident. I'd say 75%. I'm not buying into that because the 2007 Giant defensive line dominated the 2007 Patriot OL in one game, it means that it will happen whenever these teams meet after that.
     
  19. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Similar here. Previous Super Bowls for me fall into two categories basically:

    XX: Nice life bonus if they win
    XXX: Nice life bonus if they win
    XXXVI: Nice life bonus if they win
    XXVIII: Relieved if they win
    XXXIX: Relieved if they win
    XLII: Relieved if they win
    XLVI: Nice life bonus if they win. (Though I have to say this one straddles the line of the two categories more than the others).
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  20. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    If the OL does it's job then the chances go up a lot.
     
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