Welcome to PatsFans.com

What chance did/do you gave/give the Patriots in each SB

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATSNUTme, Jan 29, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,133
    Likes Received:
    27
    Ratings:
    +30 / 0 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    Here are the chances that I gave/give the Patriots to win each of the SB's that they played and will play this Sunday.

    1986 Bears- about a 10% chance. Had hope and prayers but gave them no chance. Even "Berry the Bears" did nothing for me.
    1996- This one I gave the about a 40% chance based on the "Parcells factor" (over rated)
    2001- Really thought less than 25% chance. I was hoping that they would not get blown out and become the Bills or the Vikings. Gave them a punchers chance, as they say in boxing
    2003- Certainly in this one I gave them 65% or better to win it. But never expected an offensive shootout in the 4th quarter.
    2004- High confidence 75-80%. There was little doubt in my mind.
    2007- Extremely high confidence that the Patriot would win in a blowout-90-95%- enough said.:(
    2012- I have this in my head as 50-50. It could be a blowout by either team. it could be a high scoring shootout or low scoring nail biter. I just don't have a feel for this game at all.

    OK, lets see some others. If you say that you can't remember, you are either lying or have had head trauma.:D
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  2. Bella*chick

    Bella*chick Addicted to the light

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,107
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    That is basically the same as I felt about each game.
  3. PatsGirl2011

    PatsGirl2011 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2011
    Messages:
    913
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Hmm...
    2001-I just prayed...hehe
    2003-Lil nervous especially Carolina was a hot and young team.
    2004-No doubt
    In 2007- I was 50/50. Never was confident going into the game especially since the Pats were not playing well at all in prior games.
    2012- I am about 65/35-Think they should win if they protect Brady
  4. letekro

    letekro Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2005
    Messages:
    4,153
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    86 - 0.0%

    96 - 40%

    01 - 50%

    03 - 65%

    04 - 80%

    07 - 95%

    11 - 45%
  5. Harry Yelreh

    Harry Yelreh Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2008
    Messages:
    87
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    '85: 0%
    '96: 25%
    '01: 50%
    '03: 80%
    '04: 90%
    '07: 90%
    '11: 51% (and rising)
  6. oldskool138

    oldskool138 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    2,719
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    96 - 40%
    01 - 40%
    03 - 65%
    04 - 75%
    07 - 95%
    11 - 50%
  7. Jangles

    Jangles PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    2,490
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    I don't know

    I saw a poster earlier say how the giants have been playing over their heads and their level of success cannot continue.

    I feel like we're in the same boat. Yeah the offense can be great, but it's not invincible. Especially with Gronk hurt. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him on the IR as a game day decision, only to hold him out.

    I also don't know if our defense has actually improved, or if they just feasted on an overmatched Tebow, and Joe Flacco. Eli is a good to great QB, with a pretty solid receiving corps. I hate to be the negative Nancy, but I don't feel good about this game at all. I'd say I'm giving them a 20% chance. I truly think Gronk will be too injured to do much, and I think or defense is going to look like the same unit from the first 16 games.

    I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong on all of that though.
  8. FortressX

    FortressX Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2007
    Messages:
    486
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Good = 50% - 80% of winning
    Excellent = 80% - 100% of winning.

    85 - Good
    96 - Excellent
    2001 - Good
    2003 - Good
    2004 - Excellent
    2007 - Excellent
    2011 - Good
  9. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2004
    Messages:
    9,005
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +15 / 0 / -0

    #12 Jersey

    Here's how I felt going into each

    85 - 05%

    96 - 50%

    01 - 60%

    03 - 99%

    04 - 99%
    I was living in Las Vegas at the time and I recall saying to a
    poker dealer there is no team in the NFC that can beat them.
    He wasn't as convinced.

    07 - 99%

    11 - 75%
    I don't see them letting this one get away. But,
    I'll give Eli the luck factor and 25% chance.
  10. strngplyr

    strngplyr Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,087
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    I don't like rating my confidence or predicting who wins normally, but I feel pretty confident about this game. I also feel the "calmest" I've ever been before a SB. I think this will be another 3 point game, like all our other SB's in the BB/TB era. But, I feel confident.
  11. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2006
    Messages:
    17,226
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    50/50 I'd give the same odds to the Giants too.
  12. Dragda

    Dragda Yes, it's really me... PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2006
    Messages:
    1,339
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    #93 Jersey

    I was young and dumb enough in SB XX that I thought we had a chance.

    I was mature enough in each that follow that I didn't expect anything.
  13. BoTown

    BoTown Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2005
    Messages:
    3,586
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    SB XXXI - Felt good, not great. Definitely could feel Green Bay was superior, hoped for an upset. Disappointed but hardly surprised at final result.

    SB XXXVI - Supremely confident. Felt destined to win despite the underdog tag. Kept remembering how close their earlier contest against the Rams was. Felt dread when Rams tied late, felt very confident when Pats elected not to kneel. Jubilant that I witnessed a Boston sports title for the first time in my life, as I was too young for the Bird era Celtics.

    SB XXXVIII - Thought it was a given. Felt Pats were simply better than Panthers. Game was closer than I imagined. Wasn't too nervous when Panthers took late lead. Brady magic, Vinatieri FG, just as expected.

    SB XXXIX - Confident from AFC playoff performance and figured we'd shut Freddie Mitchell up (we did :D). Slightly concerned that Eagles were evenly matched. Eagles lack of clock management eased my worries. Pats win close as expected.

    SB XLII - Nervous wreck. Hated the media hitjob, wanted the Pats to win to spite all the haters. More nervous about Walsh/Tomase story being a distraction. Talked myself into Pats blowout but felt something was wrong, Giants had "the look". Relieved when Moss scored the TD, terrified when I saw how much time was left in the game. I don't want to talk about what happened afterward.

    SB XLVI - Feels like 2001 again. Giants big favorite amongst media and public, despite deceptive vegas line. Everyone on Giants side a little too cokcy. Feel like Brady is going to have the game of his life. Feels like a Pats win is meant to be, against what my logical side thinks.
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 29, 2012
  14. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2005
    Messages:
    12,964
    Likes Received:
    23
    Ratings:
    +31 / 0 / -0

    vs Bears: I was so caught up with the Squish the Fish euphoria of the Pats making it to the Super Bowl that I actually convinced myself the Pats were a team of destiny, everyone was overrating the Bears and underrating the Pats and that the Pats would win that game. I'd say I was foolishly about 70% confident.

    vs Packers: If I recall correctly the Pats were about a 13 or 14 point underdog which I thought was way too high, but I did feel Green Bay was definitely the better team. I suppose I'd put my confidence in the Pats winning around 25%

    vs Rams: After appearing in two Super Bowls and losing both by a combined total of fifty points, all I was hoping for was that they have a respectable showing and not get blown out. 10%

    vs Panthers: Coming off a 14-2 season, with a team experienced in playing the big game against a Carolina team that was probably only the 4th best team in the NFC, I had no doubt the Pats would win. 90%

    vs Eagles: Another 14-2 season with an offense that was significantly better than the previous year. Even though the Eagles were better than the Panthers I was still very confident the Pats would win. 90%

    vs Giants: There was so much pressure to go 19-0, plus all the distractions from what seemed like a new allegation on a daily basis. Brady in the walking boot and the team not playing nearly as well down the stretch (Eagles, Ravens, Jets and then Giants) were troublesome. I was obviously elated that the Pats beat the Chargers in the AFCCG, but even that win seemed to be more difficult than it should have been. 60%

    vs Giants II: While I can find plenty of reasons why the Giants could win this game, I see just as many counterpoints for why the Pats should win. 55%
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  15. Sparetire

    Sparetire Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2011
    Messages:
    605
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    #24 Jersey

    86 - i dont know was too little
    97- 40%
    01 - 30%
    03 - 60%
    04 - 70%
    07 - 90%
    2012 - 45%
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  16. PatsDeb

    PatsDeb PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2005
    Messages:
    4,987
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +16 / 0 / -1

    1985 - thought we had no chance, but hoped we could keep it close. Ha.
    1997 - 50/50 thought we could win with Parcels
    2001 - Just happy to be there. Didn't have a clue how we'd do.
    2003 - Thought we'd win in a blowout. Turned into a back-and-forth shoot out that almost gave me a heart attack.
    2004 - Confident we would win, but no longer thinking about a superbowl blowout (see above)
    2007 - Sure we would win. Devastated when we didn't.
    2011 - Back to 50/50. Playoff losses since 2007 no longer have me going into games sure we will win.

    It feels like we should win. God, I hope we do!! GO PATS!!
  17. Poker

    Poker Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2007
    Messages:
    164
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    The reality of all those games, certainly since free agency/parity:

    All were probably really close to 50/50: No NFL game is 90/10 or 85/15 ever between 2 teams. By the time the 2 final teams get to the super bowl, it's very close to a coin flip. The media gyrates to extremes, but if the teams played 20 times, it would be 9-11 wins each.
  18. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    21,851
    Likes Received:
    13
    Ratings:
    +21 / 0 / -1

    1985 It really sucked that after waiting all those years, we end up facing what may have been the best team ever. Deep down maybe 10%
    1996 Definitely bought into the Parcells 'you get us there and I'll make sure we win it' line and thought we had a decent chance to win. Probabyl convinced myself it was 50/50. If I knew the Tuna had already checked out I would have put it at the same 10%.
    2001 I truly believed in that team. I really expected a win, but would not have been shocked by a loss, so maybe 60%
    2003 90%. After beating Tenn and Indy, facing Carolina seemed like an easy win.
    2004. 80%. 8-0 in the playoffs outweighed Gay, Brown and Moreland in the secondary. Believing McNab was the most overrated QB in the NFL helped too.
    2007 110%. The thought that it was possible we could lose that game was never a realistic possibility to me until the clock was 0:00. Literally "wait can that actually happen?"
    2011 Very confident. I'd say 75%. I'm not buying into that because the 2007 Giant defensive line dominated the 2007 Patriot OL in one game, it means that it will happen whenever these teams meet after that.
  19. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,962
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    #70 Jersey

    Similar here. Previous Super Bowls for me fall into two categories basically:

    XX: Nice life bonus if they win
    XXX: Nice life bonus if they win
    XXXVI: Nice life bonus if they win
    XXVIII: Relieved if they win
    XXXIX: Relieved if they win
    XLII: Relieved if they win
    XLVI: Nice life bonus if they win. (Though I have to say this one straddles the line of the two categories more than the others).
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  20. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,133
    Likes Received:
    27
    Ratings:
    +30 / 0 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    If the OL does it's job then the chances go up a lot.
  21. ensoul

    ensoul Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    716
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    1986 Bears-I was around back then but I did not follow football as I was young. So I have no idea.

    1996-Didn't think they had a chance. I made a very small bet (10.00 lol) against them.

    2001- 0% chance to be honest. I did not think they had a shot.

    2003- Very confident. 90% chance I could not see them losing.

    2004- Same as 2003.

    2007- 50% chance. I had a horrible feeling about this game. The pats were not playing as well as they had been and Brady was pretty awful against the changes who they barely beat even with LT out.

    2012-As much as I hate to say this I give them about 30% chance of winning. My joy was quickly turned to dismay when the Giants won their game.
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  22. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2007
    Messages:
    2,670
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    1985 - 0% - no chance to win that game barring an absolute miracle
    1996 - 25% - GB was great, but I thought the Pats had a shot in that game
    2001 - 35% - StL was great, but there was some magic that Pats' team had
    2003 - 85% - I was super confident that game
    2004 - 80% - surprisingly, I was less confident...felt like Philly was a very good team that could give us trouble even though this was a great Pats team
    2007 - 60% - Very strange view, probably. I thought the Pats would win, but I had a very strong feeling that it was going to be a dogfight. Eli worried me even in that game and I thought the Giants' D would give us problems.
    2011 - 50% - Crapshoot. Could go either way.
  23. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    86 - (irrelevant, 4 yrs old)

    96 - 30%

    01 - 10%

    03- 95%

    04- 90%

    07 - 99%

    11 - 50%
  24. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    9,806
    Likes Received:
    9
    Ratings:
    +13 / 0 / -1

    Bears: Less than 50-50. They were a juggernaut and not to be denied. We were happy to be there.

    Packers. 50-50, until Parcells turned the week before into a Parcellian drama. By game day I felt we were going to lose. I'd say that Parcells was a selfish bastard, but he'd just take it as a compliment.

    Rams. Against all odds, better than 50-50; after the snow bowl, I felt that they were a team of destiny. I'll never forget what Dick Stockton (lived down the hall from us in our building) said to me at the elevator as he left for New Orleans. "If the Pats come out and hit them in the the mouth, they'll win the game." The rest is history.

    Panthers. Better than 50-50. I just felt we were the better team.

    Eagles. Better than 50-50. Again. I just felt we were the better team and that Donovan wouldn't come through in the clutch. I was right.

    Giants I. Better than 50-50, but not by a lot. I didn't like what I had seen over the last few weeks of the Regular Season. Felt the pressure was way too high with the "perfect season" hype. Got an ugly, sinking feeling when the Tomass article turned the week before the game into Spygate-palooza, but I still thought we were the better team. By game day, it was 50.001--49.999.

    Giants II. As of this morning. 50-50 just about on the nose. I'll see how it goes the rest of this week and how I feel on Sunday morning. The only thing I'll say now is that I don't think the game's gonna be close. Right now, one way or the other, I feel that one of the teams will win going away; I just don't know which one.
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  25. borg

    borg Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2004
    Messages:
    3,712
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    85 -100%

    96 - 100%

    01 - 100%

    03 - 100%

    04 - 100%

    07 - 100%

    11 -100%
  26. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,133
    Likes Received:
    27
    Ratings:
    +30 / 0 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    [​IMG]:D
  27. yopats

    yopats Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2007
    Messages:
    463
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I'm not going to give a % chance etc.. but what I will say is that I like all the trends that are leading up to this game where it comes down these trends.

    • to BB and staff preparing for a team (4) times yes I am including McDaniels as well.
    • This team fights.. BB rebuilt the makeup of this team after 07 and it showed this year with all the come from behind victory's
    • BB's re-focusing on Defense now that Josh is back..
    • Tom Brady didn't play up to his standards in the AFCG and you know he is coming out on a mission
    • Tom Brady in a DOME enough said..
    • This is the perfect enviorment as well for the Pats pretty much undedogs from all the national media and the Giants have been extremely chatty.. as well as being in Indy it's a road game
    • Battle of the trenches .. I like our O-line and D-line in this game they both have something to proove..
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  28. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2005
    Messages:
    22,515
    Likes Received:
    75
    Ratings:
    +86 / 0 / -0

    Disable Jersey

    Major pats homo here...

    Bears...33% I saw Pats as underdogs, greatest SB comeback evan by the Bayiz down 3-0

    Pack...33% confident of our chances until I saw the thousand yard stare in The Tuner's eyes emerging from the tunnel and KNEW right then and there that he had no great game plan prepared and was indeed off to his new job mentally

    Rams...40% based on us playing them close earlier in the year and a whipping of the Squealers

    Panthers...66.7% having seen TFB in action for several seasons and the D as a force

    Eagles...90% more of above; was surprised at how well the Eagles did

    Gints 2007...75% and falling; I did not like the way the season ended with the better DCs showing how to hit & bracket Moss and Welker. Was off the media and missed the Thomasse scandal

    Giants 2100...60% because OL is in good form, offense has a running threat and more than 2 people who are pass catching threats; this outlook will plummet upon bad news about Gronk
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  29. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    9,679
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    86 - N/A, too young to have watched or remembered, at least
    96 - Wasn't old enough yet to consider the game objectively, so near 100%. Just assumed victory.
    01 - The whole postseason felt like a pretty magical ride, so honestly, my general approach to the game was that I was just excited to see them play again, and thought they could win. 60%
    03 - 80%. I knew by then how special that team was. I had little doubt.
    04 - 100%. Literally never even entered my mind that they could lose, not leading up to it, not during it, never.
    07 - 70%. I took the average. It would be near 100% leading up to it, but once the Tomase thing hit, I think my entire view changed and suddenly doubt - and ambivalence, sadly - crept in as a result of that smear campaign. It was the final straw of the witch hunt, and it did me in - and I feared perhaps some of the staff/player might have a similar reaction.
    11 - 60%. This one oughta be tough. If not for what happened in 07, the number would be higher. But there are some demons to be exorcised this upcoming weekend, for sure.
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  30. JerseyDevil26

    JerseyDevil26 Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2010
    Messages:
    154
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Seems I'm one of the few that thought we had a better than 50/50 chance in SB XXXI to beat the Packers. Damn that Desmond Howard. What could have been....
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page