What Bill Belichick did to the Vikings...

[ivanvamp]

Friends, since 2000, the Patriots have had the third-worst average drafting position in the NFL, but have somehow managed to pick players that have accumulated the most combined all-pro and pro-bowl seasons, won the most Super Bowls, had the winningest record, and accumulated the second-most career AV (a metric developed by pro-football-reference.com that measures each players' value) in the entire league.

In other words, frickin' Bill Belichick knows what he is doing.

 

[Nunchucks]

I am not a big fan of the trade, especially if the Patriots do not move up in the 2nd round. They basically have traded out of the first two rounds. Their two 2nd round picks might as well be early 3rd round picks.

I would have preferred that they target an impact player in the first round, whether that be a CB, a WR, a S, or a DL...Instead, they are going to let about 55 players go off the board without making a pick, that is concerning (if they do not trade up). Accumulating players is great, but IMO the Patriots do not have a lot of space on their roster for rookies, and I would prefer that space taken up with the best player possible, not just a value guy.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

History will tell, Hoping the Pats grab one of Woods/Hunter/Patton in the 2nd.

exactly, it all depends on who we draft today.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

In other words, frickin' Bill Belichick knows what he is doing.

the pats have produced the most pro bowlers in the past 10 years out of any teams. however, belichick has whiffed plenty of times in the draft. 2006-2009 produced almost nothing.

 

[ivanvamp]

the pats have produced the most pro bowlers in the past 10 years out of any teams. however, belichick has whiffed plenty of times in the draft. 2006-2009 produced almost nothing.

Definitely. He's accumulated the 2nd most picks in the NFL from 2000-2012, which means his broader strategy seems to be playing the odds. In a world where it really is a bit of a crapshoot, accumulating more picks gives him a better chance of finding real talent. Since each team has the same roster size, more picks necessarily means more swings and misses, but for BB it has also meant more home runs as well.

I think the overall success of the franchise since 2000 speaks to the efficacy of this strategy.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

The extra picks are good, but the second rounder is way too far down. Hopefully, if the team sees that there's a run about to be made on WR's, they can package something together to move back up.

I'd be cool with them moving one of the 2's or 3's into the 2014 1st or 2nd round

 

[Froob]

I don't really like this right now, 20 spots is quite a fall. But, we have ammunition to move up. I'll wait and see what we do today. Would hate to see Patterson become a stud and see pats pick a bunch of meh players similar to 09. Would look like a great trade if we move up and grab woods or allen and still have plenty of picks left.

 

[ivanvamp]

I am not a big fan of the trade, especially if the Patriots do not move up in the 2nd round. They basically have traded out of the first two rounds. Their two 2nd round picks might as well be early 3rd round picks.

I would have preferred that they target an impact player in the first round, whether that be a CB, a WR, a S, or a DL...Instead, they are going to let about 55 players go off the board without making a pick, that is concerning (if they do not trade up). Accumulating players is great, but IMO the Patriots do not have a lot of space on their roster for rookies, and I would prefer that space taken up with the best player possible, not just a value guy.

We'll see how it all shakes out. But most "experts" have evaluated this draft thusly: after the first 10 players, the talent really is very similar across the board for the next 50 picks or so. So you're just as likely to find a quality player at 55 as you are at 29.

Now who knows if that's true. But if it is, then BB just kept the same number of picks in that range, but also added a 3rd, a 4th, and a 7th. With those extra picks, he now has ammo to either add players he likes with those picks, trade up for someone he *really* likes, trade down if he thinks someone else he likes will still be there later, or even trade out to add additional picks for the future.

Now the conventional wisdom on this draft may not be true, and it's almost certain that someone BB *could* have had (but didn't get) with the 29th pick will turn out to be a very good NFL player. And there will be much handwringing if/when that happens.

Nonetheless, this is a pretty good strategic move by BB.

 

[Blackluck]

We have drafted six defensive backs in round one or two in the past six years. Our secondary should be the best in the league - yet we still had to trade for an oft-injured CB from another team whose pass defense ranked 31. It's as if we draft the same ****astic CB every year without ever changing however it is we're judging defensive back talent. Of course, our defensive woes are also due from our historic, steadfast refusal to draft pass rushers (until we finally selected Jones.) And now our receiving corps is in the same situation. Repeatedly taking players based solely on cone and shuttle times hasn't exactly worked out so well.

And this trade isn't in any way, shape or form reaming the Vikings. It's delusional to think otherwise. It's a fair trade, but it's a trade we were almost forced to make because of prior poor personel decisions. Now we have to hope that our late second and third round receivers don't turn out like every other receiver we've drafted in the past ten years, and the requisite defensive back we take is actually capable of covering more than a stationary fencepost.

 

[Nunchucks]

So, I just saw that Elam was available at the Patriots pick. Wow, that would have completely fixed the safety problem for a long time. That is unfortunate.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I like the trade, but this is really bill's fault in the first place giving up picks for ocho and fat albert.....if those deals didn't happen they could have made their selection yesterday.

 

[lurker1965]

@espn_nfcnblog: If you go by the traditional draft trade chart, the Vikings-Patriots trade was basically a wash. 649.5 points to 640.

It was the only one. All other trade ups were cheap.

It's like a house worth $100,000 then the real estate market collapses and everything in that neighborhood is selling for $80,000. BB managed to convince the Vikes it was worth $100,049.50.

(I'm using round numbers before anybody wonders when houses were that cheap.)

 

[lurker1965]

I like the trade, but this is really bill's fault in the first place giving up picks for ocho and fat albert.....if those deals didn't happen they could have made their selection yesterday.

Who new Ocho and fat albert sucked? I mean other than Cincy and the Redskins.

 

[bagwell368]

I like the trade, but this is really bill's fault in the first place giving up picks for ocho and fat albert.....if those deals didn't happen they could have made their selection yesterday.

Albert was a real shot in the dark, which didn't cost much in resources.

Ocho was a major bummer.

The art of being a GM in the NFL is so difficult that even the best GM's such as BB might have a success rate ratio of 54/46% (or whatever it is). Toss in BB's excellent results w/ FA's, UDFA's, trades, and knowing when not to pay current players, and his rate goes up higher.

You could always submit your resume if you like.

 

[bagwell368]

It was the only one. All other trade ups were cheap.

It's like a house worth $100,000 then the real estate market collapses and everything in that neighborhood is selling for $80,000. BB managed to convince the Vikes it was worth $100,049.50.

(I'm using round numbers before anybody wonders when houses were that cheap.)

My draft pick calc says it's a +19% deal for us. 1019 > 853.

 

[upstater1]

All depends what is done with those picks.

The 7th rounder has a good chance of not even making the team.

Our 1st was swapped for the 2nd.


So all we really got was a 3rd and 4th, in an already weak draft class.

What it allows Belichick to do is take flyers on guys like Keenan Allen and Honey Badger Mathieu, if he can.

More picks allows more risk.

Both of those guys might be considered first rounders had they come out last year.

 

[yukon cornelius]

It won't matter much if BB drafts this year's Chad Jackson, Darius Butler, Bethel Johnson and Maroney. He still needs to to pick wise...

if the pats HAD drafted patterson, he would have been this year's version of chad jackson


football-dumb wide receivers who run lousy routes do not succeed on this team......do you all not pay attention to this team at all?

NOT again falling for the glamorous WR pick in the 1st round and trading down, raping the Vikes for 4 picks in a value-heavy draft, was a tremendous move......honestly, one of the better moves of the first round

depending on how things shake out, the pats have the ability to move up to get one of their guys, especially if there's a run on WR or CB

i expect we're going to see a good run of QB's going in the top of the 2nd round.....might even see some teams maneuvering to move up to take one

there's plenty of talent left to get the WR/DB they want......they can stand pat and take advantage of the value-deep numbers in 2-4, or, if things start to run on them, they have the ability to move up

honestly, BB just took the driver's seat in rounds 2-7.....he's now got bullets to load up on bodies, or to continue to maneuver and get what he wants


absolutely love it

 

[Synovia]

Depends on what "trade value chart" you're using. I use this one and according to it, we totally fleeced the Vikings:

The Draft Value Chart: Right or Wrong? » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive

In (2009?2010?) they significantly decreased the money that high first rounders get, making those picks drastically more valuable. The old Jimmy Johnson chart reflects that a whole lot better than the PFR chart.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Like I said in the other thread, on paper it's a great value for us but for this particular case you don't know it's a steal for us until we see how this draft class plays out and it proves that the mid round players are worth giving up a chance to get someone at 29.

There's always the possibility that Minny nabbed one of the great players still available at 29 and by the time we pick in the late 2nd round there's a severe dropoff in performance, in which case they'd have robbed us. You can't evaluate these things until they play out.

 

[BadMoFo]

It was the only one. All other trade ups were cheap.

It's like a house worth $100,000 then the real estate market collapses and everything in that neighborhood is selling for $80,000. BB managed to convince the Vikes it was worth $100,049.50.

(I'm using round numbers before anybody wonders when houses were that cheap.)

Actually, the Dolphins made out the best in trades yesterday. Don't like the player they took, but they destroyed the Raiders in that trade.

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 21m

The way one source put it, Dolphins believe they got the third pick for "half price." Draft value chart says Dolphins 2200, Raiders 1680.

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 16m

Conversely, the Bills-Rams trade was remarkably even by the value chart ... Bills' haul equaled 1,642.6 points, Rams' was 1,635.