Wes Welker, Hall of Famer ?

[BSR]

21 wide receivers in the hall of fame currently. I expect Moss to be first ballet. TO and Harrison will also get strong consideration.

I am wondering about TO though - the guy has all the stats but he was also a consistent team cancer. Do voters take that into consideration? The guy had awesome stats and a great receiver on the field but he killed lockerrooms left and right wherever he went!

A lot of those guys are actually Ends not WR, which is why I missed them. Regardless, they are the least represented group other than Tight Ends. That being said, I think we will see them start to catch up in numbers as more players from the passing era become eligible.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Tim Brown is an interesting comparison, as a top WR who also excelled in the return game, making him second only to Jerry Rice in all-purpose yards among wide receivers with 19,679.

In 16 years Brown had an impressive 4555 yards in returns.
In 10 years Wes has already amassed 6,366 yards in returns. There has been no dramatic revolution of rules favoring returns. If anything, it is harder now. No wedges, better kickers, moving the kickoff up, point of emphasis on illegal blocks, etc.

Wes is probably unlikely to keep returning a lot of kicks at this stage of his career, so lets freeze him after this year at, say, 6,500 yards, conservatively for sure.

Three more productive years at WR based on his last 5, and two years of half production, puts Wes in the ballpark of 950 catches (Tim had 1094) and 12,500 yards (Tim had 14,934), and 19,000 all-purpose yards (Tim has 19,679). Wes would be third all-time among wide receivers for all-purpose yards, though, by a wide margin. Tim scored way more points (632, vs. 237 so far for Wes)

Advantage Tim, admittedly, in many areas, mainly due to the humble first three years of Wes, without a WR role at the time.

But...

100 catches seasons? 1 for Tim, 5 for Wes so far (projecting this year as a lock)

Super Bowls? Tim got there once. 1 catch, 9 yards.. yikes
Wes? Twice, 18 catches for 163 yards.

Tim's teams over 16 years went 127-129 in the regular season.... yikes. Lots of yards and catches on bad to average teams...
Wes? 86-48.

----
bottom line, Tim obviously has a big advantage right now in many important areas, but if you project Wes continuing at his pace for 3 1/2 more years, the gap gets narrower and Wes has a big lead in some areas: return yards, 100 catch seasons, winning, postseason excellence, and actually defining a position on the field-- slot receiver-- that had been relegated to a role of tertiary importance.

He is by no means a lock, but IF he keeps it up, he will make a very strong case.

Tim Brown should be in there, Chris Carter should be in there, and WR is a tougher "in" than are many positions.

Obviously winning rings would help. Lesser players with many titles have made it in over statistically superior players who always watched the postseason from their couch.

 

[Ivan]

That's a load of nonsense. There are some unbelievable receivers not in the HOF. Like Cris Carter, Tim Brown, Gary Clark, Harold Carmichael, Henry Ellard, Andre Reed, Drew Pearson, and Cliff Branch.

Before we say that Welker's stats blow those guys' out of the water, just remember that QBs back in the day used to consider 3,000 yards to be a really good year. Now the top QBs throw around 5,000 yards. So obviously the #s for receivers is going to be way up there.

I love Welker and hope he makes it, and I think he might, but to suggest that "only a complete moron" would think that he might not make it is ludicrous.

I never said that only a moron wouldn't think he will make it, I said that only a moron would think he isn't trending that way. Welker's production year after year is HIF worthy but he will have to maintain it for another 5 years, which won't be an easy feat by any means. If he does he should get in, but given the backlog at WR it will still be a tough battle.

 

[coolguy]

Tim Brown is an interesting comparison, as a top WR who also excelled in the return game, making him second only to Jerry Rice in all-purpose yards among wide receivers with 19,679.

In 16 years Brown had an impressive 4555 yards in returns.
In 10 years Wes has already amassed 6,366 yards in returns. There has been no dramatic revolution of rules favoring returns. If anything, it is harder now. No wedges, better kickers, moving the kickoff up, point of emphasis on illegal blocks, etc.

Wes is probably unlikely to keep returning a lot of kicks at this stage of his career, so lets freeze him after this year at, say, 6,500 yards, conservatively for sure.

Three more productive years at WR based on his last 5, and two years of half production, puts Wes in the ballpark of 950 catches (Tim had 1094) and 12,500 yards (Tim had 14,934), and 19,000 all-purpose yards (Tim has 19,679). Wes would be third all-time among wide receivers for all-purpose yards, though, by a wide margin. Tim scored way more points (632, vs. 237 so far for Wes)

Advantage Tim, admittedly, in many areas, mainly due to the humble first three years of Wes, without a WR role at the time.

But...

100 catches seasons? 1 for Tim, 5 for Wes so far (projecting this year as a lock)

Super Bowls? Tim got there once. 1 catch, 9 yards.. yikes
Wes? Twice, 18 catches for 163 yards.

Tim's teams over 16 years went 127-129 in the regular season.... yikes. Lots of yards and catches on bad to average teams...
Wes? 86-48.

----
bottom line, Tim obviously has a big advantage right now in many important areas, but if you project Wes continuing at his pace for 3 1/2 more years, the gap gets narrower and Wes has a big lead in some areas: return yards, 100 catch seasons, winning, postseason excellence, and actually defining a position on the field-- slot receiver-- that had been relegated to a role of tertiary importance.

He is by no means a lock, but IF he keeps it up, he will make a very strong case.

Tim Brown should be in there, Chris Carter should be in there, and WR is a tougher "in" than are many positions.

Obviously winning rings would help. Lesser players with many titles have made it in over statistically superior players who always watched the postseason from their couch.

1- look at every qb tim brown had throwing to him, now compare them to brady

2That tampa defense tim face was one of the greatest of all time and oakland refused to change their plays.

3 wes is viewed as a patriot/brady system receiver and bill doesn't value him as nothing more.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Every QB throwing to Tim Brown stacks up quite well vs. Matt Cassell, for sure.

 

[Steve102]

IMO, it's very difficult to compare today's receivers with one's already enshrined, given the offensive explosion of the last few years. Last year alone, there were what, 3 QB's over 5000 yards? Someone has to catch the balls thrown and get all the yardage. To me, if I voted, I would look at intangible things like dominance. Is Welker dominant, along the likes of Fitzgerald, Megatron, or Moss in his prime? I don't think so. I realize that puts a big 'ole target on me and my post from all the WW lovers. Does he make DC's game plan against him? You betchya.

The guy I would most compare him to would be Steve Largent. Not the fastest, not the biggest, but the guy got it done for a long time. I would say what will decide WW's worthiness for a bust in Canton will be not what he's done, but what he does from here on out. If he moves on to another team and stays productive as a top tier receiver, and plays into his late 30's then I would say yes, he's headed for Canton. If he leaves here and becomes a 50 catch guy for some also-ran team, then I would say voters will say it was A) all TB12 or B) the system.

 

[BSR]

Tim Brown is an interesting comparison, as a top WR who also excelled in the return game, making him second only to Jerry Rice in all-purpose yards among wide receivers with 19,679.

Only two things: I'd be surprised if Tim Brown was voted in anytime soon and I don't think return yards are valued very highly for the HOF. Its not like they don't count but I don't think there is much emphasis put on them.

I certainly hope that Welker produces the stats here in New England to make a run at the Hall.

 

[goheels22002]

Welker will have as many receptions as Michael Irvin by the end of this season.

He's definitely in the conversation.

 

[IllegalContact]

I don't know, but he's catching his targets at a 95% percent clip this year.....that's absurd

 

[dhill]

Hrd to argue against it if he has 2-3 more good years

 

[Yehoodi]

The biggest difference between Welker and Owens is that Welkers hasn't been a locker room disaster.

I don't know if Welker will be a hall of famer, but he is one of the most impressive players I have seen. I mean, the hits he takes and then just goes up again and continues. Like the hard hit in the Seattle game and three plays laters he takes the first down. He is a team guy and will do whatever he can to put the team in a position to win.

yah but he likes to stick it to his coach . . . :singing:

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He probably needs another 2-3 100+ catch or close to it seasons to have a legit shot, but he's already been mentioned as inching into the conversation by national mediot voters like King as a guy approaching contention by virtue of elevating the significance of slot receivers and resetting the bar. Really would benefit him to remain with Tom, although that's become debatable after the way they approached this season intent on moving away from him. As a FA he could pick his spots and likely wouldn't go to a crap team for a few dollars more. Guarantee you guys like Manning (either) or Rogers or Ryan would welcome him. He has a fondness for Colorado...got married there.

Palm Beach Pats Fan has a better grasp of what the voters look at then many of you. It's not just yards or even TD's that can be empty stats absent context. It's impact (which encompasses winning) and where you ranked among your peers and how consistently over time. And the level against which as well as at which you consistently competed. And they won't simply compare him to outside or deep threat phenoms, that's apples and oranges, although aside from scoring opportunities he matches up well with the phenoms of his day.

He's a missed catch/ring away from already being a solid eventual contender.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

He will get in when Brady retires (5 more years?)

 

[Yehoodi]

another problem is that he does not have a ring yet . . . which might hurt him some . . . there are only 21 WRs in the HOF in the "modern era" and only 2-5 from each decade . . . we will have to see how things go . . . if he keeps going and has a few more 100 catch seasons, the "#'s of 100 catch seasons" will help write his bio in Canton . . .

but there is a log jam at WR with a few guys recently retiring with mucho numbers . . .

also as molewis said, he being the premeire slot reciever helps and if the NFL starts to tend in that direction a lot, then he might be viewed as a key cog in changing the way people looks at how they run their offense . . .

kind of like how Kellen Winslow help redefined the TE position . . .

 

[Teapot]

Brandon Lloyd , Julian Edelman or Josh McDaniels are better options

 

[jbb9s]

Super Bowls? Tim got there once. 1 catch, 9 yards.. yikes
Wes? Twice, 18 catches for 163 yards.

Sometimes its more about the catches you don't make. Speaking of SB receivers, Branch is one of the best of all time. MVP and most catches in two consecutive SBs is impressive.

 

[patsfan-1982]

everyone says he's a system guy if not for Bady he would not be puting up dose type of numbers for that reason alone if he ever gets in it will be when he's a old man in he's late 50's or 60's


i think welker sould be in the HOF he's 6 years in new england so far maybe the best 6 years by a WR ever but when you look at he's number as a whole he is not even on the same planet with some of the WR's that are not even in the HOF + no rings so far and he's not a big TD guy

 

[thenepatsrule]

ALL Hail Welker

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

To me, if I voted, I would look at intangible things like dominance. Is Welker dominant, along the likes of Fitzgerald, Megatron, or Moss in his prime? I don't think so. I realize that puts a big 'ole target on me and my post from all the WW lovers. Does he make DC's game plan against him? You betchya.

I'm interested in this argument, as it's the type of thing that talking heads would yell at each other over. How does one define dominance in a WR?

I wish I had time to dig up stats and put some meat into this post. I think you're onto something though. Voters will use a loose term like "dominant" to ask whether Welker was as good as or better than the best during his career. It's a hurdle for him to overcome that he's being compared to physical freaks like Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss. Some voters may also handicap him for playing with Brady during his productive years, despite this same handicap not willingly/equally being applied to other HOF pass catchers.

HOF pass catchers who played post 1980 (arbitrary date, sorry)
Michael Irvin* (Aikmen)
Charlie Joiner* (Fouts)
Steve Largent (Dan Krieg = S'hawks R.O.H.)
James Lofton* (Kelly late in career, Lynn ****ey - Packers HOF QB early in career)
Art Monk
Jerry Rice* (Montana, Young)
Lynn Swann* (Bradshaw)
(Ends)
Dave Casper
Ozzie Newsome
Shannon Sharpe*(Elway)
Kellen Winslow* (Fouts)

... sorry for any omissions / errors there.

 

[SyN65]

He has no chance. He doesn't have the receptions, yards, and not even close for TD's.