Reiss on the Welker situation:
1. Clarity on state of negotiations. Welker's remarks make it clear that he didn't sign the franchise tag because momentum had built in contract talks. At first, one might have read it as the negotiations taking a downward turn after Welker signed the franchise tag, which would have really stung Welker. But this seemed to be a general comment about the state of negotiations since the 2011 season. Some important context there from a timing standpoint.
The Pats put a value on every player in the organization. Sometimes that valuation is at odds with the player's perception and/or with what the market will pay. The Pats tend to be fairly inflexible, for better or worse. One can argue that this caused the team to lose Asante Samuel and Deion Branch, and possibly cost as a SB or two. One can also argue that those players got overpaid by other teams and under-produced for those teams. Both were traded for relatively little before their contracts expired.
The Pats' valuation of Welker was certainly based on a number of considerations, including the market, his age, his fit in the system, his rapport with Brady, his loyalty and personality, the potential replacements if he were to leave, and how a long term deal for him would impact retaining other players. Personally I doubt the missed reception in the SB had anything to do with it. The Pats aren't that nearsighted. But I do suspect that the Pats' valuation wasn't affected that much by the fact that the FA WR market went crazy. Just because other teams chose to overspend ridiculously on WRs doesn't mean that the Pats should do so.
I also think that the Pats love Welker, and would love to keep him. He's a perfect Patriot. It's not personal. But they are going to value their salary structure and the cap above individual "loyalty" to a player, and they will never pay based on past performance. One can argue that Welker was a bargain for 5 years at $17M. However, at the time people thought the Pats were overpaying terribly for a diminutive slot receiver without great speed.
2. Welker's public approach. The Patriots generally prefer to keep negotiations private. Welker has taken a different approach. This isn't likely to help him at the negotiating table.
I've addressed this before. Going public with dissatisfaction won't get Welker anywhere. He's doing it much more diplomatically than Logan Mankins did, but the Pats don't respond to strong arm tactics in any form.
3. Projecting team's point of view. In attempting to think from a team perspective, a few factors that could be driving the decision-making process are the NFL's projected flat salary cap over the next few years, coupled with star tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez having contracts that expire after the 2013 season. Safety Patrick Chung and offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer, two other higher-end players, have deals that expire after 2012. The Patriots seem willing to extend a bit for the 31-year-old Welker, but it appears clear they have an end point and aren't budging far from it because of these factors.
I've also addressed this before. Unlike several posters on this board, it seems that Reiss DOES believe that a long term deal for Welker could have contract implications for Gronkowski and Hernandez. Particularly Hernandez, IMHO. Jermichael Finley tried to argue that he should be compensated as a WR because Green Bay often used him split out as a WR. Hernandez could make a similar argument. A long term deal for Welker (> 2 years) could cut in to the money that the Pats have allocated to the TE and WR positions and into their willingness to pony up for Gronk and AHern.
4. Welker's final year in New England? If the Patriots placed the franchise tag on Welker next year, it would be at $11.4 million. That is a 20 percent increase from this year's tag figure of $9.5 million. Considering that Tom Brady's cap number next year will be around $22 million, the Patriots would have about 28 percent of their cap tied up in two players, which makes one think a '13 tag for Welker is unlikely and he will hit the open market (unless Brady's deal is tweaked, which is always a possibility). That makes it a stronger possibility that this could be Welker's final season in New England.
The Pats aren't "disloyal" to their high end players. As I've argued earlier, they generally pay their core players well. But they aren't going to break the bank for anyone, and they pay more attention to the salary structure of the back end of the roster than most teams. No player helps your team much if they are injured, and injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. It's poor business strategy under the salary cap to squander a disproportionate amount of your cap space on a few top players.
5. Negotiations can be harsh. A $9.5 million payday is significant, so Welker won't get sympathy from many. At the same time, his comments expose the hard edge that can be part of negotiations. Welker has done a lot for the Patriots over the last five years, and in many ways, has been the heart and soul of the team. There is a part of this that could make one say, "Welker deserves better." But business is business and the Patriots have had past success with their approach. Even quarterback Tom Brady's negotiation with the team wasn't easy. Neither were Vince Wilfork's and Logan Mankins' negotiations.
If he plays out the 2012 season under his franchise tag, Welker will have made $26.5M over the past 6 years with the Pats. He shouldn't qualify for food stamps any time soon. He may not have hit the jackpot the way some players have who deserved it much less, but he hasn't exactly suffered.
Sharing some Welker thoughts - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
Does Welker "deserve" to be paid more than $8M/year? Based on past performance, and based on what other lesser receivers have gotten in free agency, of course he does. It's ridiculous that Pierre Garcon should get paid more than Welker. But from the perspective of the salary cap, his role with the team, market compensation for a 31 year old slot receiver, and how a long term deal might affect other players, it's not so obvious that that is the best move for the team.
You can view the Pats' stance as a "slap in the face" and an insult to a loyal and deserving player. You can view it is being penny poor and pound foolish. Or you can view it is prudent and disciplined management under the salary cap that is unrelated to how members of the organization personally feel about Welker. It's not clear right now what the "right" answer is.
