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The annoying thing about talking about the franchise tag is that there are two different scenarios.
(1) Using the franchise tag to "buy time" to negotiate (as they did with Wilfork).
(2) Using the franchise tag as a prelude to a trade or to keep a player for an extra year (as they did with Cassel/Asante).
I cannot see (2) happening, but I can believe they would resort to (1) if absolutely necessary. That said, Welker has said he's not solely in it for the money, and I can't really see him wanting to go anywhere else.
I agree with you, and think that option 2 is not likely. But the only way I could even see option 1 playing out is if they couldn't reach a preliminary deal, and if Welker really wants to stay here for "fair" money, that shouldn't be a problem.
Option 1 (paying him 10-11 million under the tag, or whatever it is) is not a choice the Pats want, and it's likely not a choice that Welker wants either. I don't think it will be the greatest of signs if option 1 plays out, but then again--it did work with Wilfork and Mankins, but with that said, either one of them were happy with the initial back and forth.
I'm hoping for a nice smooth offer/counter offer, with a compromise in the middle, but that's in a perfect world. Regardless, I still think that they should have just tried hard to re-up him. It's not like we don't know what we're getting, or if he's back from injury etc. Like I said, I do believe that waiting is going to cost them..and it may be more significant than they even realize. By Welker continuing to tear it up, he will not take what he would have a month ago. At least his agent will not take that.