Wes Welker - A Deion Branch clone?

[tombonneau]

He has average agility? Damn that is so far off its amazing. How the hell do you explain the 4.6 YAC he averaged last season? LUCK? Give me a break. Welker is extremely quick and very good on punt returns and kick returns when he actually has some blocking. Something he hasn't had in Miami.

Your BS claims regarding his kick return and punt return abilities show you to not have a clue on this subject. The Phins blocking schemes on special teams were atrocious. But just ignore that why don't you. Shows how truly smart you are.

As for Welker's size, how do you figure its below average? He's 5'9 and 195 lbs. BTW, Welker ran a 4.65 40 at his Pro-Day and a 4.01 in the 20 yard shuttle. So, while Welker isn't Hobbs fast, he's actually slightly quicker than Hobbs who ran a 4.08 in the 20 yard shuttle.

You keep going on about his 4.6 YAC ... I'm curious, how does that compare to other slot WRs?

I know Welker avg. like 10ypc last year, it just doesn't seem that impressive to me that a guy catches a 5-6 yd slant and picks up another 4-5 yards. Maybe it is impressive compared to other WRs who average 10ypc, I don't know.

To me, that just seems about average for what a guy should be doing on one of those plays. Maybe I'm off though.

Where do you get your yac data from?

 

[Remix 6]

Let's see. I over-rate players because I feel that Cassel is as good as Schaub and feel the Pats might be able to get a 1st or 2nd round pick? I over-rate players because I look at all the factors that go into kick returns and punt returns, particularly facts you choose to ignore?

Yes, I have watched Welker play. Numerous times. Its why I wanted him for the Pats and started talking about him long before the season ended and before free agency started.

Agility is the lateral movement. Welker is very good at stopping and changing directions. While a 30" vertical isn't great, we're not talking his vertical. We're talking about a guy who was getting 4.6 YAC on average after each pass. In an offense where they averaged just over 6 yards per attempt.

5'9 and 195 lbs is undersized if you look at it just from his height. It may not be tall, but he's built. And that helps him go over the middle.

OH, one last thing. I don't know if ANYONE is Dante Hall quick. Hall ran a 3.86 20 yard shuttle and a 6.82 3 cone.

if u feel Cassell is worth a 1..i wonder what Jarvis Green or Mike Wright are worth..they proved a ton more. Force the team to give us 3 first rounders

He averaged 10.3 ypc..meaning hes catching 6 yard passes..thats not saying much. He ran underneath defenses with quick curls, outs or ran under and across to the other side of the field. we already have guys who can take quick passes and get small gains. with a little room..they too can get 4-5 after catch(Caldwell and Gaffney)

 

[DaBruinz]

if u feel Cassell is worth a 1..i wonder what Jarvis Green or Mike Wright are worth..they proved a ton more. Force the team to give us 3 first rounders

He averaged 10.3 ypc..meaning hes catching 6 yard passes..thats not saying much. He ran underneath defenses with quick curls, outs or ran under and across to the other side of the field. we already have guys who can take quick passes and get small gains. with a little room..they too can get 4-5 after catch(Caldwell and Gaffney)

You really should do your homework before mentioning other players.

Caldwell had 221 yards on his 61 catches. That is less than 4 yards per catch. OH, Caldwell was also running routes on the outside more than over the middle, so it was more one on one. Caldwell has never been a big YAC guy.

Gaffney had 29 YAC on his 11 receptions. That is less than 3 YAC. Gaffney has NEVER been a big YAC guy.

Welker had 285 YAC on his 67 receptions. That is 5.7 YPC and 4.6 YAC. As I have said previously, 45% of his yards came AFTER catching the ball.

Of the current receivers, only Stallworth had more YAC than Welker. Stallworth had 218 YAC on his 38 receptions or 5.7 YAC. But Stallworth also averaged 19.1 YPC. Again, because of the types of routes he was running.

 

[Remix 6]

You really should do your homework before mentioning other players.

Caldwell had 221 yards on his 61 catches. That is less than 4 yards per catch. OH, Caldwell was also running routes on the outside more than over the middle, so it was more one on one. Caldwell has never been a big YAC guy.

Gaffney had 29 YAC on his 11 receptions. That is less than 3 YAC. Gaffney has NEVER been a big YAC guy.

Welker had 285 YAC on his 67 receptions. That is 5.7 YPC and 4.6 YAC. As I have said previously, 45% of his yards came AFTER catching the ball.

Of the current receivers, only Stallworth had more YAC than Welker. Stallworth had 218 YAC on his 38 receptions or 5.7 YAC. But Stallworth also averaged 19.1 YPC. Again, because of the types of routes he was running.

i said if we put him in the same situation as Welker they can. and where do u get your stats from.

 

[DaBruinz]

You keep going on about his 4.6 YAC ... I'm curious, how does that compare to other slot WRs?

I know Welker avg. like 10ypc last year, it just doesn't seem that impressive to me that a guy catches a 5-6 yd slant and picks up another 4-5 yards. Maybe it is impressive compared to other WRs who average 10ypc, I don't know.

To me, that just seems about average for what a guy should be doing on one of those plays. Maybe I'm off though.

Where do you get your yac data from?

Kevin Curtis with the Rams only averaged 3.1 YAC
Bobby Engram with the Seahawks averaged just 2.95, but it was an injury plagued year. At his BEST, he was at 5.7 YPC.

You have to remember that people weren't respecting the Phins passing game and were stacking the box with an extra defender and that defender was, most assuredly, picking Welker up at times.

Troy Brown, in his BEST year as a #3 with Shawn Jefferson and Terry Glenn averaged almost 7 YAC. We could see Welker put up similar numbers to that because teams won't be stacking the box against the Pats and because of the threats at TE and WR.

 

[DaBruinz]

i said if we put him in the same situation as Welker they can. and where do u get your stats from.

I don't believe they can. Sorry.

I've posted several times where I get my stats from. SI.COM. Who gets them from Stats.com

 

[tombonneau]

I don't believe they can. Sorry.

I've posted several times where I get my stats from. SI.COM. Who gets them from Stats.com

Ok, I went in and sorted players by YAC to get the top 50 YAC. Then I simply divided the their total YAC by # of receptions to derive the avg. # of yards they got after each catch.

I then removed the RBs as the pretty much composed the top 15 or so.

Rank	Player	Team	G	Rec	Yds	YAC	avg yac	Avg	Lg	TD	1st	Trgt
1	Chris*Cooley	WAS	16	57	734	419	7.35	12.9	66	6	33	94
2	Santonio*Holmes	PIT	16	49	824	345	7.04	16.8	67	2	41	86
3	Michael*Pittman	TB	16	47	405	307	6.53	8.6	25	0	15	76
4	L.J.*Smith	PHI	15	50	611	320	6.40	12.2	65	5	29	80
5	Greg*Jennings	GB	14	45	632	281	6.24	14	75	3	30	105
6	Anquan*Boldin	ARI	16	83	1203	504	6.07	14.5	64	4	53	152
7	Donald*Driver	GB	16	92	1295	541	5.88	14.1	82	8	53	172
8	Mark*Clayton	BAL	16	67	939	384	5.73	14	87	5	42	113
9	Steve*Smith	CAR	14	83	1166	474	5.71	14	72	8	51	139
10	Reggie*Williams	JAC	16	52	616	286	5.50	11.8	48	4	28	92
11	Marques*Colston	NO	13	70	1038	376	5.37	14.8	86	8	51	115
12	Braylon*Edwards	CLE	16	61	884	325	5.33	14.5	75	6	38	124
13	Marty*Booker	MIA	14	55	747	286	5.20	13.6	52	6	36	90
14	Javon*Walker	DEN	16	69	1084	350	5.07	15.7	83	8	53	126
15	Randy*McMichael	MIA	16	62	640	313	5.05	10.3	24	3	35	96
16	Hines*Ward	PIT	14	74	975	359	4.85	13.2	70	6	50	126
17	Joey*Galloway	TB	16	62	1057	296	4.77	17	64	7	44	141
18	Terrell*Owens	DAL	16	85	1180	400	4.71	13.9	56	13	62	152
19	Jerricho*Cotchery	NYJ	16	82	961	373	4.55	11.7	71	6	53	125
20	Antonio*Gates	SD	16	71	924	322	4.54	13	57	9	49	120
21	Lee*Evans	BUF	16	82	1292	370	4.51	15.8	83	8	53	137
22	Andre*Johnson	HOU	16	103	1147	460	4.47	11.1	53	5	55	164
23	Wes*Welker	MIA	16	67	687	285	4.25	10.3	38	1	33	100
24	Tony*Gonzalez	KC	15	73	900	302	4.14	12.3	57	5	54	103
25	Terry*Glenn	DAL	15	70	1047	288	4.11	15	54	6	47	110
26	Isaac*Bruce	STL	16	74	1098	299	4.04	14.8	45	3	54	126
27	Kellen*Winslow	CLE	16	89	875	354	3.98	9.8	40	3	42	119
28	Roy*Williams	DET	16	82	1310	316	3.85	16	60	7	66	151
29	T.J.*Houshmandzadeh	CIN	14	90	1081	343	3.81	12	40	9	58	132
30	Chad*Johnson	CIN	16	87	1369	329	3.78	15.7	74	7	66	152
31	Laveranues*Coles	NYJ	16	91	1098	315	3.46	12.1	58	6	52	151
32	Marvin*Harrison	IND	16	95	1366	301	3.17	14.4	68	12	78	148
33	Torry*Holt	STL	16	93	1188	280	3.01	12.8	67	10	67	179
34	Mike*Furrey	DET	16	98	1086	271	2.77	11.1	31	6	54	146

Not sure what formula you are using to get 4.6 avg YAC for Welker, according to my calcs he's only 4.25.

When you look at the other slot WRs on that list, there's really only:

Jennings
Ward (maybe)
Cotchery
Furrey
Glenn

So he's behind two and ahead of two. It certainly doesn't strike me as an overly impressive number.

I then did the same thing, only this time sorting the top 50 by # of receptions to see if more slot WRs showed up:

Rank	Player	Team	G	Rec	Yds	YAC	avg yac	Avg	Lg	TD	1st	Trgt
1	Chris*Cooley	WAS	16	57	734	419	7.35	12.9	66	6	33	94
2	Anquan*Boldin	ARI	16	83	1203	504	6.07	14.5	64	4	53	152
3	Donald*Driver	GB	16	92	1295	541	5.88	14.1	82	8	53	172
4	Mark*Clayton	BAL	16	67	939	384	5.73	14	87	5	42	113
5	Steve*Smith	CAR	14	83	1166	474	5.71	14	72	8	51	139
6	Marques*Colston	NO	13	70	1038	376	5.37	14.8	86	8	51	115
7	Braylon*Edwards	CLE	16	61	884	325	5.33	14.5	75	6	38	124
8	Javon*Walker	DEN	16	69	1084	350	5.07	15.7	83	8	53	126
9	Randy*McMichael	MIA	16	62	640	313	5.05	10.3	24	3	35	96
10	Hines*Ward	PIT	14	74	975	359	4.85	13.2	70	6	50	126
11	Joey*Galloway	TB	16	62	1057	296	4.77	17	64	7	44	141
12	Terrell*Owens	DAL	16	85	1180	400	4.71	13.9	56	13	62	152
13	Jerricho*Cotchery	NYJ	16	82	961	373	4.55	11.7	71	6	53	125
14	Antonio*Gates	SD	16	71	924	322	4.54	13	57	9	49	120
15	Lee*Evans	BUF	16	82	1292	370	4.51	15.8	83	8	53	137
16	Andre*Johnson	HOU	16	103	1147	460	4.47	11.1	53	5	55	164
17	Arnaz*Battle	SF	16	59	686	263	4.46	11.6	56	3	36	85
18	Wes*Welker	MIA	16	67	687	285	4.25	10.3	38	1	33	100
19	Tony*Gonzalez	KC	15	73	900	302	4.14	12.3	57	5	54	103
20	Jason*Witten	DAL	16	64	754	264	4.13	11.8	42	1	37	92
21	Terry*Glenn	DAL	15	70	1047	288	4.11	15	54	6	47	110
22	Isaac*Bruce	STL	16	74	1098	299	4.04	14.8	45	3	54	126
23	Darrell*Jackson	SEA	13	63	956	252	4.00	15.2	72	10	44	112
24	Kellen*Winslow	CLE	16	89	875	354	3.98	9.8	40	3	42	119
25	Eric*Moulds	HOU	16	57	557	226	3.96	9.8	29	1	33	78
26	Roy*Williams	DET	16	82	1310	316	3.85	16	60	7	66	151
27	T.J.*Houshmandzadeh	CIN	14	90	1081	343	3.81	12	40	9	58	132
28	Chad*Johnson	CIN	16	87	1369	329	3.78	15.7	74	7	66	152
29	Plaxico*Burress	NYG	15	63	988	233	3.70	15.7	55	10	44	121
30	Todd*Heap	BAL	16	73	765	267	3.66	10.5	30	6	40	115
31	Reche*Caldwell	NE	16	61	760	221	3.62	12.5	62	4	41	102
32	Travis*Taylor	MIN	16	57	651	206	3.61	11.4	36	3	29	87
33	Laveranues*Coles	NYJ	16	91	1098	315	3.46	12.1	58	6	52	151
34	Ronald*Curry	OAK	16	62	727	209	3.37	11.7	39	1	40	89
35	Chris*Chambers	MIA	16	59	677	195	3.31	11.5	46	4	36	154
36	Larry*Fitzgerald	ARI	13	69	946	223	3.23	13.7	57	6	52	111
37	Marvin*Harrison	IND	16	95	1366	301	3.17	14.4	68	12	78	148
38	Keyshawn*Johnson	CAR	16	70	815	220	3.14	11.6	40	4	42	128
39	Muhsin*Muhammad	CHI	16	60	863	188	3.13	14.4	40	5	45	117
40	Torry*Holt	STL	16	93	1188	280	3.01	12.8	67	10	67	179
41	Jeremy*Shockey	NYG	15	66	623	197	2.98	9.4	25	7	37	115
42	Mike*Furrey	DET	16	98	1086	271	2.77	11.1	31	6	54	146
43	Reggie*Wayne	IND	16	86	1310	215	2.50	15.2	51	9	72	137
44	Derrick*Mason	BAL	16	68	750	160	2.35	11	38	2	45	112

The only other slot WR to show up is Battle, who is a bit better (and who I actually like a lot).

So basically, I'm not sure how this shows Welker has an amazing avg YAC. If anything, it shows him to have an average YAC avg.

 

[Remix 6]

Jennings
Ward (maybe)
Cotchery
Furrey
Glenn

all of those guys are starters

Driver-Jennings for Packers
Ward-Washington i think for Steelers
Coles-Cotchery for Jets
Williams-Furrey for Lions
Owens-Glenn for Cowboys

unless u meant #2 guys

 

[tombonneau]

Jennings
Ward (maybe)
Cotchery
Furrey
Glenn

all of those guys are starters

Driver-Jennings for Packers
Ward-Washington i think for Steelers
Coles-Cotchery for Jets
Williams-Furrey for Lions
Owens-Glenn for Cowboys

unless u meant #2 guys

I meant guys who work the underneath slot vs. vertical. Without access to more than the top 50, it's going to be tough to determine the yac of pure #3 WR slot guys like az-hakim or whoever.

 

[tombonneau]

The only other real relevant to slice the data, I sorted by guys who average 10-12 ypc, just bc those are folks who are in Welker's range. There are only about 15 guys who averaged that ypc in the top 50, so its not a strong sample size.

Still, Welker comes out looking better as he ranks 5.

Rank	Player	AvYAC	Rec	Yds	YAC	Avg	Lg	TD	1st	Trgt
1	Randy*McMichael	5.05	62	640	313	10.3	24	3	35	96
2	JCotchery	4.55	82	961	373	11.7	71	6	53	125
3	Andre*Johnson	4.47	103	1147	460	11.1	53	5	55	164
4	Arnaz*Battle	4.46	59	686	263	11.6	56	3	36	85
5	Wes*Welker	4.25	67	687	285	10.3	38	1	33	100
6	Jason*Witten	4.13	64	754	264	11.8	42	1	37	92
7	Kellen*Winslow	3.98	89	875	354	9.8	40	3	42	119
8	Eric*Moulds	3.96	57	557	226	9.8	29	1	33	78
9	Todd*Heap	3.66	73	765	267	10.5	30	6	40	115
10	Travis*Taylor	3.61	57	651	206	11.4	36	3	29	87
11	Ronald*Curry	3.37	62	727	209	11.7	39	1	40	89
12	Chris*Chambers	3.31	59	677	195	11.5	46	4	36	154
13	Keyshawn*Johnson	3.14	70	815	220	11.6	40	4	42	128
14	Jeremy*Shockey	2.98	66	623	197	9.4	25	7	37	115
15	Mike*Furrey	2.77	98	1086	271	11.1	31	6	54	146
16	Derrick*Mason	2.35	68	750	160	11	38	2	45	112

 

[zarakotas5]

Hmm. Deion Branch clone? No.

Welker is his own, throw-back style guy.

If every play was a home-run, teams would score 80 points. Bull-dozing RB's getting 4 yards would be obsolete.

Comparisons to Troy Brown are more realistic. Go back and look at some of the stats Troy put up in the Bledsoe era.

Then, go back and watch film on Welker. Not just against the Pats. See what he does receiving the ball. Then, look at what he might have done HAD HE BEEN TROWN TO by a better QB.

If anyone actually reads this and actually does so before responding, objectively, the second round pick is more easily forgotten.

 

[patsfan-1982]

welker is more of a troy brown now not a deion branch he is a ST guy and 3rd down WR if he hes more then 30rec this yer i will jump out of my bed lol hes just a kick returner punt returner noting more

 

[DaBruinz]

Not sure what formula you are using to get 4.6 avg YAC for Welker, according to my calcs he's only 4.25.

I screwed up. I was using 61 instead of 67 for the receptions. The 4.25 is correct. Still is pretty good when you consider the team he played for last year.

 

[DaBruinz]

Jennings
Ward (maybe)
Cotchery
Furrey
Glenn

I meant guys who work the underneath slot vs. vertical. Without access to more than the top 50, it's going to be tough to determine the yac of pure #3 WR slot guys like az-hakim or whoever.

On SI.COM, I use the player's individual pages.

Also, as Remix pointed out, all the guys you mentioned are starters. Welker wasn't. Even Arnez Battle was a starter with the 49ers. But with a name like Battle, you'd better be tough

 

[AzPatsFan]

As Pioli has said over and over, "...its all about building a Team, not collecting stars...".

If you have the deep threats (Moss Stallworth, maybe Kelley, Jackson), the intermediate receivers (Caldwell, Gaffney), the TE catchers (Watson, Thomas) you still need the short slot outlet guys (Troy, Faulk, Welker, occasionally Brady).

But Troy is a shadow of what he was; Faulk is on the field for 3rd & longs only; so they needed a Troy replacement, hence signing Welker.

Team Building! Not star collecting...:rocker:

 

[DC_TXTECH]

Hello guys, as you might have guessed from my name I go to Texas Tech and I follow football as closely as I can. I was lucky enough to catch Welker's last three seasons in Lubbock and I have most likely watched him play live more than anyone else on this board. Most people seem to be very optimistic about Welker on this board and I could not agree more.

I don't really want to get into comparisons because I really only get to watch 3 or 4 patriot games a year and can't say whether Welker is the next Branch or Brown. But what he may have in common with Brown is the fact that he is able to increase his level of play in the big game. Most of the Pat's games I watched were playoff games and it seemed like Brown always performed well when it mattered the most. Wes didn't get a chance to play any playoff games in Miami, and I would say the biggest games he has played were against the division rival, almost perrenial SB champion, Patriots. Not to my surprise he played well against your team.

I know it is cliche but, you can't measure a man's heart. Welker was named the Oklahoma player of the year in high school, by several publications. His dream school was not surprisingly OU. OU passed on him because he was small and not that fast. If I remember correctly, the only reason he got a scholarship to Texas Tech was because another WR never showed up for camp. I read a poster using Welker's tangibles as an argument to his mediocrity earlier in this thread and all I could do was shake my head. He wasn't big or fast enough for college ball, then he wasn't big or fast enough to get drafted, now he is not big or fast enough to be more than above average. No offense to the person who posted that, I could see myself doing the same thing. The fact remains that he has yet to be proven wrong and the undoubted best front office in the league seems to agree.

As much as I hate to admit it our instate rival, UT, beats Tech on a rather consistent basis. In my 6 years as a TT fan we have beaten UT once. The sole proponent of the win was a man named Wes Welker. What is more impressive is the fact that that group of DB's from UT that year were amazing, including #5 overall Quentin Jammer and Nathan Vasher who somehow fell to the fourth round. Griffen and Huff were also on that team but I don't think they started at the time. All we did was throw the ball to Welker, and I will never forget after Wes broke like 5 tackles I looked up and it said on the scoreboard, "Welker is unstoppable". For that night it was true. You hear people saying that some players have, "it". IMHO that is true of Wes Welker. Although I am sure that ya'll (yes we say ya'll here) have already looked up any highlight you could find on Welker, here is a link to a college highlight film.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=or9nXE-T1KM

Now from a more football view and less of a homer basis, look at Welker's situation. He came into the league undrafted and has WORKED his way up to being a slot/KR/PR/ and eventually was traded for a second round pick. Picking up 67 receptions and 687 yards in the slot last year was great, my Texans have never gotten that kind of production from their #2 and Miami's QB situation was practically the same as Houston's last year.

Moss is going to get doubled A LOT. He definitely did in Oakland. Stallworth is so fast you have to keep track of him. As we saw last year, he is deadly on playaction. Some would say that Wes is "only" a slot receiver. IMHO he is "exactly" what a slot should be. He could be a #2 on a lot of teams. For the most part he is too short to be a number one. People like their tall receivers but with his abilities you want to get him the ball. That is why when you have a guy like Wes you run more 3 wide sets than you normally might. If you are in a situation where you have Randy Moss and Dante Stallworth on the outside. Then the best #3 you could have is Wes Welker IMO. Oh yeah, he also returns kicks pretty good.

Someone mentioned that Wes can't take it to the house. Do you realize that Wes set the record for kick returns for a TD in college (which was broken the next year I believe.) I realize people are faster in the NFL and yadayadayada, but if he could do it against OU, UT, and NEB, then I am pretty sure he can do it in the pros. Perhaps the Dolphins do have terrible blocking on Sp. teams. I'm not sure, but I would bet money he has at least 1 TD on returns this year.

Let me say that as a TT fan I am partial to bias, as everyone is. However, I am really not the type to sign up for a message board just to make one post. Actually, the only other time I have done it was when I got on the San Diego message board to tell them how lucky they were to pick Welker up as a free agent in 04, they cut him a couple of weeks later. I felt that it was important to let ya'll know that you just caught lightening in a bottle and I think it was well worth a second.

Basically, my point is that when the Pat's inevitably make the playoffs, watch out for a guy named Wes.

Sorry the post is so long, hopefully I could give you guys a little insight into what I have seen from the man.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Sorry the post is so long, hopefully I could give you guys a little insight into what I have seen from the man.

Informative posts like this are ALWAYS welcome. :rocker: :rocker: :rocker:

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Glad to see some here get it. If you are predicting 75 catches close to 1000 yards and a Super Bowl MVP for Welker, you have to be on some serious drugs. I'd say about 40 catches for 500 yards and 0 or 1 TDs for Welker.

Hmmm . . . you sure about that, Aqua? His predictions seem just a bit more on-target than yours!

 

[chrisjnelson]

As a Dolphins fan, I stand by everything I've ever said about Wes. He's a fine slot receiver, but he's nothing more. Of course he's going to excel when he's on an offense with so many great weapons and a team that is insanely good. Anyone would. He still doesn't possess many great abilities. Most of the time he caught passes against us today no one was covering him. He's simply nothing special and is easily replaceable. Anyone would excel in that role for the Pats because the team is so good.

 

[Nordy]

Hmmm . . . you sure about that, Aqua? His predictions seem just a bit more on-target than yours!

We're only seven games in and Welker has already exceed Aquaboy's predictions along with five, count em FIVE, TDs