Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by betterthanthealternative, Dec 16, 2009.
Week 14 power index.
Week 14 power index - Boston.com
Yeah, we're definantly better than the Colts.
After Reiss left the Globe got all homer
Breer tried to say today he's not a homer. Lies! All Lies!
Surely surprising, but...better than the alternative
Well to be fair for three quarters we were. Then for one quarter we really, really, REALLY were not...
I want Albert R. Breer to compile some formula to make me a better wide receiver than Wes Welker. I'm pretty sure he could do it.
You've never dropped a pass or fumbled the ball in your whole NFL career. Clearly you're more reliable than Wes at least.
Welcome to the wonderful world of statistics. Applying a standard formula to those variables, I am sure Breer is correct. The Pats are 5th in the NFL in points scored and 7th in points given up. They probably rank pretty high in first downs as well.
Whether the formula is a realistic indicator of how good a team is represents an entirely different question.
Seems to me that Kevin Faulk has a perfect lifetime passer rating in the NFL and that Mike Vrabel has a perfect reception/TD record.
I can rank teams, too!
PS: I went with reverse-alphabetical order!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
St Louis Rams
San Francisco 9ers
San Diego Chargers
New York Jets
New York Giants
New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers
"If you're not first, you're last."
The Pats also rank #4 in total team efficiency over at FootballOutsiders.com, using their DVOA metric.
They actually rank 3rd behind the Colts and Eagles, and ahead of the Saints, in weighted DVOA, where the games at the beginning of the season start to be counted less.
In fact, just about any statistical metric will rank the Pats pretty high up -- for example, the Pats rank 4th in point differential.
It's hard for fans to see past the W-L record, the only "stat" that will determine whether the Pats make the playoffs or not, but we need to realize that the record is only 13 data points.
Outside of the debacle against the Saints in NO, our 4 losses have been by an average of 3 points. Meanwhile, teams like the Colts have largely squeaked by against some mediocre teams.
This might not matter when it comes to deciding playoff seeding, but how a team plays during the thousand-some snaps over the season is a better predictor of how they're going to play than the relative scores at 13 intervals along that way.
The Pats are certain not a "great" team this year, but they are a "good" one, at least relative to the rest of the teams in the league this season.
I trust ESPN ranking us 9th way more than that
The Patriots are number 4 in my heart and number 1 in my loins. ~<3
The ranking is probably pretty accurate for what it ranks.
If you add up all the plays each team has had this season, making all of them exactly equal to each other, then the Pats have had the 4th best season so far.
If you weight those plays for their contribution to deciding a win or a loss we come in somewhere around tied for 8th.
Ironically if we could have made 2 of those plays that mattered most, we'd be 4th in w/l % too.
Pretty safe to say that the quality the Colts, Saints, Vikings, Chargers have had that results in them succeeding on game deciding plays is more valuable than us succeeding more in the ones that don't decide games.
Let's not forget we had a 3 possession lead against an undefeated team in their stadium while playing undermanned. We've hit some serious roadbumps since then - but on paper, this team is just as talented as any other team. Just as the Saints & Colts may have perfect records, their teams are far from perfect.
The idea that we're going to be one and done in the playoffs, just doesn't fly to me. Anything can happen.
There's only 4 teams I think are clearly ahead of us right now - Colts, Saints, Chargers, Vikings. Not saying we are definately a top 5 team, but every other team aside from those 4 you can make a case for us being ahead.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness
I don't know if they have a special quality that got them the wins. As easy as it is to find defining plays late in close games, any number of things earlier in games can sway the w/l statistic as well. Whatever the case may be, this team is capable of playing some good football, and we can only hope they are able to put it together for 60 minutes accross multiple games going into the playoffs.
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