Were NFL defenses catching up to the tricky 2007 Pats?

[Shockt327]

It's a GREAT point. The 01-04 Colts put up huge points but the Pats figured them out, and we shut them down every time in the playoffs.
The 2001 Rams were one of the best offenses ever, but we shut them down in the Superbowl.

Those offenses were historically great, but their coordinators stubbornly ran the same stuff, and most of the time they were simply too good to be stopped. That is, except when it mattered.

I wouldn't go that far. The Rams floundered because Kurt Warner broke his thumb and because their D wasn't as good. Martz still had good years with Bulger.

The Colts pre-2004 were no different than they are now. What made them so brilliant in 2004 was A) Reggie Wayne's emergence as being possibly one of the best in the NFL. B) Playing 9 games against passing D's ranked 20th or worse (and he threw 35 TDs against them).

Their philosophy hasn't really changed, though I've heard quite a bit about what you can't do against them.

 

[Deus Irae]

Alleged "factors."

I'm still having a hard time believing that TFB, a QB who is one of the greatest bad weather QBs of all time -- a guy who threw 50+ passes and completed 60% of them, in the Snow Bowl -- became a 47.7% passer because of the wind. And a 51% passer cause of the Jets. Also, the Jets game wasn't even that bad. Once the game got started, the field was clear and is had turned to rain.

Also, if you want to run an analysis on what bad weather does to Brady - you don't just delete the two games. Maybe you try to figure out how bad weather affects Brady by comparing how bad his drop due to the weather. Maybe then you can do a "weather adjusted" analysis. But you don't just delete games.

If you want to treat them as outliers that a different story, one I've already covered....

Anyone who watched the Ravens game could see how the wind affected throws, especially deep outs. Some people besides myself happened to notice:

2. The wind has plagued Brady thus far. On a throw to Moss in the endzone and a deep ball to Moss near the end of the half, Brady’s throws were off target largely because of the wind. Kyle Boller has had some problems too but Brady’s two throws most effected by the wind were two huge plays

Why the Patriots and Ravens are Tied

Rather than put in a bunch of links, I'll just pull some quotes for you....

That lead was extended when Mason converted a fourth down with a tough, 12-yard catch through traffic in Patriots territory. The swirling winds led Billilck to go for it instead of having Matt Stover try a 40-yard field goal, and Mason's grab allowed Stover to try from 29 instead.

6:08 -- It looked like the wind played a major factor in a Brady pass intended for Randy Moss in the end zone. Moss juggled the ball and couldn't get both feet in bounds when he gained control. But Corey Ivy was whistled for a penalty on the play to give New England a first down. The replay was not shown here.

0:00 -- The Patriots are content to run the clock out. I really didn't think I'd be writing that tonight. The teams go into halftime tied. Great effort by the Ravens in the first half. The wind has been a major factor. On the Patriots' last possession, Brady was looking deep for Moss. Now either Brady underthrew his wide receiver (which you never really see with him) or the wind slowed the ball down. Reed got there just in time to break it up for an incompletion.

As for the Jets game:

Aided by wind and rain, the Jets turned an expected blowout into a close game, but lost, 20-10, to a Patriots team that is now two victories from the first undefeated N.F.L. regular season in 35 years.

"When you have elements like this you want to play great defense and run the ball," Brady said.

Maroney had a season high in carries.... hmmm....

"The ball was slippery, but I thought I had it pinned in time," McCareins said. "Obviously not."

Two plays after the block, Maroney scored on a 1-yard run with 1:05 left in the half and the Patriots led 17-7. And more snow sailed from the stands.

That made up for the Patriots' own botched punt midway through the second quarter. Chris Hanson bobbled the snap and by the time he kicked, David Bowens was inches away and blocked the ball. Bowens scooped it up and ran 26 yards for a touchdown, cutting the lead to 10-7.

"I don't like playing in this weather," Patriots linebacker Junior Seau said. "I'm a surfer."

Neither Brady, nor the Jets' offense, scored a touchdown during the game. But the wind had no effect.

I know what an outlier is, and it doesn't apply.

Also, you seem to ignore the Dolphins second game, where Brady and company changed the way the were playing in the second half in an attempt to get Moss/Brady the TD records.

 

[efin98]

I wouldn't go that far. The Rams floundered because Kurt Warner broke his thumb and because their D wasn't as good. Martz still had good years with Bulger.

Warner broke his finger in '02. They had the 11th ranked passing defense, 3rd ranked rushing defense with the 7th ranked defense overall that year in 2001.

Sure looks like their D wasn't as good...

 

[maverick4]

I wouldn't go that far. The Rams floundered because Kurt Warner broke his thumb and because their D wasn't as good. Martz still had good years with Bulger.

The Colts pre-2004 were no different than they are now. What made them so brilliant in 2004 was A) Reggie Wayne's emergence as being possibly one of the best in the NFL. B) Playing 9 games against passing D's ranked 20th or worse (and he threw 35 TDs against them).

Their philosophy hasn't really changed, though I've heard quite a bit about what you can't do against them.

The Rams lost because Martz stubbornly kept passing against us even though we played nickel and dime almost all game. We also shut down Faulk by chipping him. I would call that being caught up by the Pats, in the big game.

The Colts had an explosive offense long before Wayne showed up, and yet would get stopped every year by the Pats. Manning routinely choked and threw interceptions against our defense, because as you said yourself, the Colts didn't change philosophy or schemes and just relied on out-executing against the defense.

Similarly, the 2007 Pats offense was explosive, but teams caught up to us, and we didn't adjust when it mattered.

 

[unoriginal]

Great points. What did you think of the San Diego game, BTW?

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...486-offensive-line-play-jaguars-chargers.html

I seem to remember them making an effort to occasionally blitz the ILBs as opposed to just sending Merriman off the edge - which didn't work. Seems like that had a bit more success with it, though I'm going off memory here.

Occasionally is pretty close, yes. I would use the term "rarely." Cottrell played contain-style defense and his long-armed defensive backs nearly made it work out.

 

[Shockt327]

Did the wind have an effect on the passing game? Sure, I'll buy that. Especially the deep attack. Does that fully explain his 76.3 and 51.5 QB ratings? Not buying it. Brady's history certainly doesn't back that up. Here are his career stats in all types of weather - the drop off isn't nearly as prevalent as it was in those two games.

So sure, the wind made him worse. It didn't make him that much worse.

[/IMG]

 

[Deus Irae]

Did the wind have an effect on the passing game? Sure, I'll buy that. Especially the deep attack. Does that fully explain his 76.3 and 51.5 QB ratings? Not buying it. Brady's history certainly doesn't back that up. Here are his career stats in all types of weather - the drop off isn't nearly as prevalent as it was in those two games.

So sure, the wind made him worse. It didn't make him that much worse.

[/IMG]

You can "not buy it" all you want. It happened. It had a significant effect. Neither your chart nor your argument make a damned bit of difference, because they are noting trends rather than focusing on the specifics of the games.

But, you know this.

 

[efin98]

Did the wind have an effect on the passing game? Sure, I'll buy that. Especially the deep attack. Does that fully explain his 76.3 and 51.5 QB ratings? Not buying it. Brady's history certainly doesn't back that up. Here are his career stats in all types of weather - the drop off isn't nearly as prevalent as it was in those two games.

So sure, the wind made him worse. It didn't make him that much worse.

Regular season only or including the playoffs?

 

[Shockt327]

The Rams lost because Martz stubbornly kept passing against us even though we played nickel and dime almost all game. We also shut down Faulk by chipping him. I would call that being caught up by the Pats, in the big game.

I was talking about why they fell off after SB 36. Though I agree with you assessment of that particular game.

The Colts had an explosive offense long before Wayne showed up,

They were really good. I wouldn't call them "explosive" at least not to the degree they were in 2004. It was when Wayne emerged that their offense became really great. Having two brilliant WRs limits what you can and cannot do against them.

and yet would get stopped every year by the Pats. Manning routinely choked and threw interceptions against our defense, because as you said yourself, the Colts didn't change philosophy or schemes and just relied on out-executing against the defense.

Partially. Manning made poor decisions in those games. But it was also because that system relies heavily on him making the call at the line of scrimmage. Belichick is a master at nuanced defensive alignments. He made Manning think he was seeing something that wasn't there.

I'd counter, by saying Manning is a much better decision maker than he was in 2004. Which is probably why he's had such a good record against us since 2005. In fact - to back up the point I've been making through this thread - I recall Manning being interviewed where he talks about how one of the reason why he beat us in 2006 playoffs was because he knew the Jets had the same defense we did. He payed particular attention to how Brady attacked the Jets offense that year - and what looks Brady simply decided to check down or dump off against.

In that 2006 AFC Championship game, Manning had quite a bit of success checking down to Addai and Clark. Both had monster games that day. I'd say that another example of proper gameplanning. And if one of you says "blueprint" I'm going to flip...

(I wish I actually bought that friggin magazine)

Did they have to change their whole offense to win in 2006? No. It's pretty rare to see them deviate from the same formations and schemes they've been using for years. Is it as potent as 2004? No. Is it still difficult to defend? You bet. But they took the overall themes of another teams gameplan and adapted it to fit their own offense. It's not like they went out their and copied the Patriots.

Similarly, the 2007 Pats offense was explosive, but teams caught up to us, and we didn't adjust when it mattered.

To an extent...

 

[Shockt327]

You can "not buy it" all you want. It happened. It had a significant effect. Neither your chart nor your argument make a damned bit of difference, because they are noting trends rather than focusing on the specifics of the games.

But, you know this.

I'll take a career of stats to note his play in poor weather over the argument of "it happened" and "you know this" any day of the week. Especially, coming from someone who has thrown out almost every excuse in the book to explain what happened toward the end of 07 instead of giving the other team/coaches their due credit...

 

[Shockt327]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...486-offensive-line-play-jaguars-chargers.html



Occasionally is pretty close, yes. I would use the term "rarely." Cottrell played contain-style defense and his long-armed defensive backs nearly made it work out.

Awesome. Do you remember much about the two Jets games that year? I seem to remember Mangini being ultra conservative in that week 1 game - and paying dearly for it. If I remember alot of vanilla cover 2 looks. The second time around he seemed to be more aggressive. It looked like he his LBs and maybe even a safety hover around the LOS to threaten the blitz - so you never really knew if he was going to drop back or come at you. And he made the Pats actually respect the blitz by doing it occasionally. (I imagine) this made the protection reads/adjustments a bit difficult.

 

[eom]

plz don't try to inject any facts into this, deus --- in his hazy memory of 2007 those two games were merely a "light rain" having no impact on the games played.
maybe some players would disagree, but they don't know wtf they're talking about, and he can back that up w/a graph.

look, shock is not an idiot ---- he full well knows the ****ty weather games will tend to cluster in the back half of the season, he knows that entering the playoffs pits you against the best in the nfl, by definition, but he'd rather attribute these things to his voodoo 'trend' which seems to consist entirely of the superbowl.
myself, I think that's a little dishonest to manipulate the stats that way.
if he wants to include garbage data points in his small sample sizes, that's up to him, but I'm not doing it because I'm actually looking for a meaningful result.

also, shock --- I think you mentioned something in these last few posts about the pats being forced into becoming a 'one dimensional' team in the last 5, or so, games.
I've already seen your memory's a little hazy on that year, but would the second to last game of the year be one of those?
or did the trend just hop over that one?
wait.....I know --- we were one dimensional, but the one dimension was running the ball.

ps

hmmm....I'm gonna have to take a look at this sammy morris theory tomorrow....

 

[Deus Irae]

I'll take a career of stats to note his play in poor weather over the argument of "it happened" and "you know this" any day of the week. Especially, coming from someone who has thrown out almost every excuse in the book to explain what happened toward the end of 07 instead of giving the other team/coaches their due credit...

I'm not throwing out excuses, I'm pointing out realities. Here's another one....

141/8=17.6
118/8=14.75

That's the difference in the average defensive ranking of the opponents from the first half of the season to the second, and that's even giving the Chargers the full credit of their #5 ranking despite the fact that they were struggling (38, 31, 30 points allowed in games 2-4) to start the season.

So, better defensive opponents, worse weather and a half a game playing 'bombs away' in pursuit of the TD record. Even before the season started, people expected that the team would do better in the first half than the second because of the way the schedule had set up and the likelihood of weather affecting the games.

But none of that matters, because you've got a chart which you think can explain weather, even though rain is not the same each time it rains, wind is not the same each time it's windy and snow is not the same each time it snows.

Brilliant!



P.S. Don't watch this past season's game in Buffalo, especially the kick attempts. I wouldn't want you to lose your ignorance of how wind is not always the same, no matter how your chart categorizes it.

 

[eom]

Awesome. Do you remember much about the two Jets games that year? I seem to remember Mangini being ultra conservative in that week 1 game - and paying dearly for it. If I remember alot of vanilla cover 2 looks. The second time around he seemed to be more aggressive. It looked like he his LBs and maybe even a safety hover around the LOS to threaten the blitz - so you never really knew if he was going to drop back or come at you. And he made the Pats actually respect the blitz by doing it occasionally. (I imagine) this made the protection reads/adjustments a bit difficult.

the rain game he used that muddle huddle bull****.

you know, I linked you to unoriginal's breakdowns and told you to read them abbout 6 times already.

 

[Deus Irae]

Shockt327, whatever you do, don't click this link. It actually implies that wind can sometimes be an enormous factor in a football game, and that sometimes it can be worse than other times!

Patriots Get Windy Win In Buffalo


The shame of it is that people can make a cogent argument on either side of this issue but, although I personally find the "blueprint theory" and its supporting arguments to be the weaker side (something I think Matt Cassel demonstrated this season, in fact), by doing the same things you accused eom of doing, and also by refusing to admit to the obvious with regards to the weather and the like, you undermine your own credibility in this debate.

 

[Shockt327]

I'm not throwing out excuses, I'm pointing out realities. Here's another one....

141/8=17.6
118/8=14.75

That's the difference in the average defensive ranking of the opponents from the first half of the season to the second, and that's even giving the Chargers the full credit of their #5 ranking despite the fact that they were struggling (38, 31, 30 points allowed in games 2-4) to start the season.

I always thought their schedule was pretty evenly spread out, and eom agreed in his post. But I'll take a look anyhow.

I don't agree with the method you chose to compare the defenses; though I do like the idea. I usually use defensive passer rating when talking about how strong a defense is against the pass. Using overall defense, or passing yards or passing TDs can be misleading if a defense has a poor rushing attack and teams simply choose to attack that. Passer rating evens the playing field IMO. I'm also going to include the full 19 game schedule; with Philly as the beginning of the 2nd half.

So the first 10 games - 80.53 defensive passer rating

Back 9 - 81.36 defensive passer rating.

So, no I don't think they played defenses that were harder to throw against. And I don't think their schedule was particularly back-loaded either.

But none of that matters, because you've got a chart which you think can explain weather, even though rain is not the same each time it rains, wind is not the same each time it's windy and snow is not the same each time it snows.

Brilliant!

As opposed to what? Completely ignoring the idea that defenses - even ones that they already faced - simply played them tougher in the latter half? I already told you that I have no problem with the idea that weather had an effect. We just don't agree on how bad that effect was. I'm certainly not going to claim it is the only reason - or even the biggest reason - why Brady was off target in those games.

P.S. Don't watch this past season's game in Buffalo, especially the kick attempts. I wouldn't want you to lose your ignorance of how wind is not always the same, no matter how your chart categorizes it.

Yet you are making it sound as if it was one of the windiest games ever because you have a quote from Logan Mankins (which could be hyperbole on his part) and a few people on a message board? Even if you are correct, I've seen Brady play in horrid conditions quite a bit. I've never seen it hurt his accuracy that badly. And I'm still not buying the argument over the weather in the Jets game. It wasn't that bad.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Anyone who doesn't think that wind can drastically alter how games are played clearly didn't see the Week 17 win in Buffalo.

 

[Shockt327]

Shockt327, whatever you do, don't click this link. It actually implies that wind can sometimes be an enormous factor in a football game, and that sometimes it can be worse than other times!

Patriots Get Windy Win In Buffalo


The shame of it is that people can make a cogent argument on either side of this issue but, although I personally find the "blueprint theory" and its supporting arguments to be the weaker side (something I think Matt Cassel demonstrated this season, in fact), by doing the same things you accused eom of doing, and also by refusing to admit to the obvious with regards to the weather and the like, you undermine your own credibility in this debate.

Except I've never once dismissed the idea that the weather played a role. Or the idea that the Giants were had a great D line. I don't cherry pick stats, or use black and white reasoning, or strawman arguments.

I'm sure the weather it limited their ability to go deep. It sure that been the case in alot of bad weather games. But it's never been that bad for Brady.

Also, if the weather made conditions so unbearable for throwing; why didn't it stop an awful QB like Kyle friggin Boller from throwing with efficiency all over the field? He consistently threw over the middle and even a couple passes deep. He threw at a high percentage too - which is saying something because he is usually so god awful.

What ever you do, don't click this link! It will ruin your unthrowable wind theory! (See I can be a jerk too).

NFL Videos: Week 13: Kyle Boller highlights

 

[Sicilian]

I've seen Brady play in horrid conditions quite a bit. I've never seen it hurt his accuracy that badly. And I'm still not buying the argument over the weather in the Jets game. It wasn't that bad.

I'm sure he's been effective, but I'm willing to bet the farm his numbers don't look as good in bad weather games. Better than the other guy? Sure. Better than his usual? Absolutely not, and I bet it's not even close.

 

[Shockt327]

I'm sure he's been effective, but I'm willing to bet the farm his numbers don't look as good in bad weather games. Better than the other guy? Sure. Better than his usual? Absolutely not, and I bet it's not even close.

I think you may have lost the farm. I already posted this on the previous page. Brady's number do indeed look solid in bad weather. There is a reasonable dropoff, but certainly not to to the degree that we saw in the Jets/ Ravens game. Certainly not enough to explain why he could only complete around 50% of his passes, or post 76.3 and 51.5 QB ratings.

If we take Kyle Boller's success into consideration. I'd say that pretty much puts the weather theory in its proper prospective....as does the fact that Chad Pennington outplayed Brady - going 25/38 against a much better defense. I also think Pennington's 38 attempts blows a hole in the idea that the Patriots simply couldn't pass due to the conditions. We've seen Brady dink and dunk his way to many wins, yet, it didn't work this time. He was horribly inefficient. If they were indeed forced to run the ball, it was more because of the Jets D, than the conditions. Even still, Brady threw 27 passes in the Jets game and 38 against Baltimore; so I think both Brady and Belichick felt confident about their ability to pass despite the weather.