NO! I forget the thread and the poster, but some guy on here's claiming our 2009 offense can't be as good as that of 2007 because he's got some graph of the offensive output declining as a result of the nfl getting all this film on us throughout the year, and thwarting our schemes --- culminating, of course, w/the unmentionable game. I've actually heard this crock of **** from a few other people, so I promised I'd enlighten him --- but I forgot the thread. so, here it is........ (that's how my original post started out, but I lost it after typing a ton of stuff, so here's the short version I want to focus on 2007, because that's really what everybody talks about, but just as I was about to post this up I thought I'd sample a bit of the surrounding years out of curiousity --- as a kind of crude anecdotal baseline. I just looked real quick and didn't subtract out defensive scoring, weather games, etc on these: final 6 games of 2006 - ~33 ppg final 6 games of 2008 - ~32 ppg I took the last chunk of games from both years so the nfl could get lots of film and adjust their defenses accordingly. forget belichick adjusting on his end in 2009 for a minute, this post is just about 2007, and whether the nfl was slowing us down towards the end. everyone already knows the hurdles they had to overcome last year --- cassel starting, all rb's going down, offensive line, defense, 16(?) guys on IR, etc, yet after all that, and all that film on us, the offense did surprisingly well at the end of the year, finishing off w/about 32 ppg --- pretty much the same as they had 2 years before, in the gabriel/caldwell days. now, on to the 'surprise' offense of 2007. we had replaced the aforementioned doug gabriel and reche caldwell with moss and welker, and the nutty theory some people like to fwd around like a virus laden chain e-mail is that we surprised the league, but they caught on to our tricks at the end. I'll present the data game by game (not anymore) and look at it in arbitrary chunks. note -- I've subtracted out defense/special teams scoring, done some minor rounding, and I believe the passing yardages have been adjusted down for sacks. also, I will examine both points per game, passing yardage, and opponent, to try to get a more complete picture. ok, these first 5 games are when the league had the least film on us, and when the element of surprise should have been greatest. so, let's average this chunk and see how it looks. weeks 1-5 32 ppg / 273 pypg / opponents gave up 22 ppg for a +45% scoring average over defense right here, you might want to refer back to the 2006 and 2008 ppg #'s above for perspective. now things are starting to heat up, and these next 4 weeks are probably the games that a lot of people have stuck in their head from that year. three 40 pointers. blending these 4 games into our previous 5, we get the following 9 game averages to start off the year: weeks 1-9 35.5 ppg / 296 pypg / opponents gave up 21.3 ppg for a +67% scoring average over defense bye week followed by back half of the season....... garbage in = garbage out the baltimore game was described by mankins(??), or whoever it was, as the windiest game he had ever played in, and that jets game was played on the slip n slide at waterworld. subtracting out the 2 extreme weather games (jets and baltimore) you get a 'final five' game average that looks like this: final 'five' games 36 ppg / 339 pypg / opponents gave up 21.4 ppg for a +68% scoring over average. note: strength of opponent, ppg average, and % scoring over defense average are all extremely similar between the front nine and back 'five' games, while the back five boast about 40 extra yards through the air on average. heading into the playoffs: weeks 1-5 32 ppg / 273 pypg / opponents gave up 22 ppg for a +45% scoring average over defense weeks 1-9 35.5 ppg / 296 pypg / opponents gave up 21.3 ppg for a +67% scoring average over defense final 'five' games 36 ppg / 339 pypg / opponents gave up 21.4 ppg for a +68% scoring over average. JAX game - 31-20 / 258 pyds / 19 ppg (10th) +63% this wasn't an average taken over a half dozen games against mediocre defenses, it was a single game against 'pats buster' 10th ranked defense jacksonville. despite this, they managed to score right inline w/the first 5 game 'surprise!' chunk of the season, as well as the final 6 game averages of '06 and 'o8, incidentally -- and the +63% scoring over defense average was nearly identical to both the front nine and back five. SD game - 21-12 / 198 pyds / 18 ppg (5th) +17% as we get deeper into the playoffs, we naturally face better teams --- this time another 'pats buster' in the 5th ranked defense san diego chargers. maybe all this film study is starting to pay off because at first glance the 5th ranked defense has held us to only 21 on that frigid new england field. but what you might remember (or not...) is that we ran the ball 20(!) times in the second half, eating over 21 of the 30 minutes, and culminating in an awesome 9 min drive where we essentially sat on the ball and put the game away. sitting on the ball for 21 min doesn't run the score up, but it wins the game, and is what I'd call offensive dominance. superbowl - our offensive line got run over by their defensive line. period. that's it. they hurt us w/their inside blitzing, but they didn't blitz a lot, like philly likes to do. the baltimore overload attack is a style of THEIR defense, not the rest of the nfl's. if other teams had the coaching or talent to replicate philly or baltimore, or the line to emulate the giants, they'd ALREADY BE DOING IT. this entire supposed trend consists of nothing more than a couple extreme weather games and a single game against the giants where they RAN US OVER. if that's what you're so concerned about heading into next year, then you're more worried than I am. CROCK!!