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Well, it's Patriots week for us! Complete Broncos Breakdown

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by RYObroncosfan, Oct 1, 2012.

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  1. RYObroncosfan

    RYObroncosfan Rookie

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    Good to be back here, after last season I'm much happier seeing my Broncos take on the Pats with an actual quarterback playing the position. I had a feeling we could've been competitive last year, but deep down knew you guys were far and away the better team.

    This year is something totally different, with the Peyton-Brady rivalry taking new form with Manning growing from a Colt to a Bronco (I didn't make that up, don't blame me for the corniness).

    I've been to one game in Denver and caught all the others on TV, and living in MA, I've caught all the Pats games as well. I'll go ahead and break down the Broncos for you, and as always, feel free to ask me anything, agree, disagree or just dismiss me as a Broncos fan and move on. :cool:

    Peyton

    Obviously, QB is the most important position, and without question Peyton had the most hype (good/bad, can play/can't play) heading into the season.

    I watched him progress during pre-season, and then each week has been something a little different during the season. The first quarter of that Falcons game was an aberration, no other way to describe it. There were important things to take away from it however, namely that he's not the QB he once was.

    If you watched him recover the rest of that game, or have seen him since, you may not be willing to dismiss him as a washed up old-timer quite yet. The Steelers performance was very encouraging and analysts were quick to overreact and declare him the same MVP winning QB he once was, and then were just as quick to mark him done after Atlanta.

    While the truth is somewhere in between, I'm telling you it is closer to what he once was. Similar to how Brady isn't the same QB he once was but is still dominant, I think Peyton will be back at that point the second half of the season.

    He was very solid against the Texans but his numbers were hampered a bit by dropped passes, miscommunications, etc. The Raiders suck, but he was pretty close to perfect yesterday. A few really well-thrown balls, a lot of vintage Peyton throws and a dominating performance.

    Overall
    --The velocity is down, but I'm not overly concerned. He's still a top 10 QB in the NFL, if not borderline top 5.

    The Running Game

    McGahee has been surprisingly impressive this season. He's finding the holes and hitting them hard, breaking off big runs and picking up big first downs. Last game was probably his best, and as long as he's healthy he's a solid running back. Not elite, but he gets the job done.

    Knowshon Moreno has been relegated to the bench. A few too many mistakes and he's pretty much considered a bust at this point in his career.

    Lance Ball gets a little playing time, he's not much to worry about aside from the occasional 10 yard catch or five yard run.

    Look for Hillman to get a few more carries this game. He was a popular late round fantasy pick, especially in keeper leagues because Denver drafted him to be the younger speedy back to counter McGahee. He was hurt the first few games, saw limited action against the Texans, but looked good last week. He showed the flashes of speed Denver drafted him for, and as he gets healthier, he'll likely become the official #2. Watch out for him on screens and especially in the open field.

    The O-Line

    Our starting center was hurt last week, but you'll be familiar with his replace, Dan Koppen. Koppen seemed a little rusty last week, but overall did a better than expected job. The rest of the o-line is probably slightly above average.

    Tight Ends

    Our tight ends aren't great, but so far Manning has been able to find them and utilize them almost as much as they were utilized all of last season combined. No scary names, but don't be surprised if Manning finds one of them in the end zone.

    D-Line

    We've been able to get more pressure than we have in the past few years, but the D-Line overall is still a bit of a weakness. Derek Wolfe, our high round draft pick, has looked promising, but overall we just haven't been getting consistent pressure and it starts with the line.

    LB

    We really need DJ Williams back from suspension, our LBs haven't been great. Von is still a monster, but I'm sure the Pats will focus enough attention his way to limit his productivity. He'll impact plays for sure, but the rest of our LBs won't.

    Secondary

    Tracy Porter is really hit and miss. He takes a lot of risk, and playing opposite Champ, he sees a lot of action. He's had a few NEAR picks, a pick six, and a few whiffs that have led to big plays for the offense.

    Champ, regardless of how old it may seem he is, is still a top-tier CB. He's a particularly good tackler for a CB and is above-average in coverage. He's definitely lost a few steps though as he's gotten older.

    Our safeties aren't anything special.

    We're an old team, no doubt about it. Our window for a super bowl run is...this year or next year, then we start over. I predicted a 2-3 start for us going into the season, followed by an 8-3 or 9-2 finish. I'm still standing by that.

    The beginning of our schedule is absolutely brutal. Already played the Texans and Falcons. Beat the Steelers. Got a break with the Raiders, but then we play you guys, the Chargers, the Saints, etc. Granted the Saints aren't nearly as intimidating as they are on paper, but our schedule eases up a whole lot after the bye week. I truly believe we're a good team, and it's almost entirely because of Peyton. He'll keep us in the game, even if he does throw an ill-advised INT.

    What to expect

    Having watched both teams a lot, I do like Denver's chances in this one. We'll probably be down at the half, but I see us fighting back and it finishing in the same classic fashion NFL fans have come to see from these two QBs the last 10 years. If you're gambling...we play really poorly in the first half (at least we have all season), and not in terms of overall offense, but in scoring offense. We've settled for far too many field goals in the first half, before capitalizing in the second half with TDs. I'm taking the Pats first half line no matter what the spread is, but I'm taking Denver to win.

    Denver 34
    New England 31

    Here's too hoping for a good, injury-free game :eat2:
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2012
  2. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The thread title suggestion that Denver will have a complete breakdown doesn't jive with your prediction. :confused:
  3. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Welcome back and thanks for your breakdown.

    I don't know why but I think it will be a lower scoring game than you predict and certainly a different winner.

    Elvis and Von do give me concern against our young OT's.
  4. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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  5. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    This game has got Jeckll and Hyde written all over it. To be honest I haven't follows the broncos so I don't know much but from box scores and the game vs Atlanta. It looks like both teams have had some ups and downs but I like are team better of course. Pats are a couple of bad calls from being 4-0 but that's the breaks. We are 2-2 and it tastes awful.

    This Pats team has kind of teased us with a running game lately and I think it will be a real good test to see where they are at or if it is a farce. I guess the game plan will dictate that. For the life of me I don't know why welker hasn't been involved but buffalo was a good sign hopefully that he will be utilized to the fullest. Lloyd also seems yo be coming on which is a good sign.Gronk is Gronk, even a bad game for him like last week is better than most te's when its said and done. Basically it 's Gronk smash every week.

    Defense is improved in the front 7. Especially against the run. Cb 's are improved Imo but the safety play is a disaster. Needs to get fixed and I'm not sure of the solution.

    Not be arrogant but I think we take this game handily. Don't think they have a problem stopping the run and from what I saw from Peyton his velocity is a issue. Pats aren't susceptible to short dumps and slants. They are jelly soft 15 to 25 yards in the middle of the field and its embarrassing. I just question Manning's arm and if he can get it in there before the window close.
  6. Nitro

    Nitro Rookie

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    Not sure if serious?

    2011 NE 16 401 611 65.6 5,235
    Projected 2012 yards.. 4908

    For comparison, the mvp/record setting moss year.
    2007 NE 16 398 578 68.9 4,806

    Completion percentage has hovered at 65% for years now. and this year is 65.6%

    I'm going to go get high right now and try to figure out what you are seeing.
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2012
  7. RYObroncosfan

    RYObroncosfan Rookie

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    I'm not really sure where I lost you...

    "Similar to how Brady isn't the same QB he once was but is still dominant"

    You can't possibly believe that 35 year-old Brady is the exact same QB 28 year-old Brady was. I said he was still dominant, because he is, but unless you're watching different Patriots games than I am, you'll notice there's a few more throws every now and then from him that we never would've seen in the past.

    If stats told the whole story than Peyton's #'s right now would suggest that he hasn't lost a step either. A career 64.9% completion % is at 64.7% this season, a career 7.6 yards per attempt is at...7.6 this year. He's averaged a little over 30 touchdowns a season, and is on pace for 32 this year. You get my point.

    Neither are the same QB they were pre-injury and in their prime, but they're no slouch at all at this stage of their career, either. We'll see how Peyton holds up throughout the season to see if they are exactly similar, for now Brady gets the edge...but my point was that they are both dominant QBs who have aged a little.
  8. cmc0605

    cmc0605 Rookie

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    For convenience, this is a re-post of my message in the other thread. It's pretty much consistent with the analysis in the opening post. Sorry for the annoying "our" and "we" descriptions referring to the Broncos.


    -Concerning Peyton Manning, there's very little indication that his arm is a problem anymore. His three interceptions against Atlanta were a consequence of poor reads, not poor throws, and he's made a few impressive deep throws or throws into tight windows. More problematic might be whether he has a solid enough chemistry with his receivers. Thomas and Decker have become one of the better young WR tandems in the NFL, but have flashes of making bonehead plays (dropping wide open catches, fumbling, etc). Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme, the old Colt targets, have become the "clutch" options (the guy Manning goes to on, say, 3rd and 5).

    - Concerning our defense, it is fairly inconsistent, but we do have plenty of star players. We've upgraded the secondary with Tracy Porter at CB and Mike Adams at safety since last year, and it helps us that Aaron Hernandez won't be around. Rahim Moore (the other safety) is a liability. Champ is still doing what Champ does...it's true that he lost a step, and gives up some 10-15 yard passes once in a while, but if you watch Denver games you will see that teams still only challenge him maybe 2-3 times a game, and none of the plays are usually game-changing (like big touchdowns over his head, etc). He might not intercept every other pass going his way anymore, but he still is avoided and should be in the discussion of top 5 CBs...and is still one of the best tackling defensive backs in the NFL. Look to see Tracy Porter and Chris Harris' name quite a bit.

    I suspect Brady will have a very solid stat line against us, particularly with intermediate throws and screens, but it shouldn't be like the blowouts last year...both because the defense is better, but also because we no longer have a joke QB who can't stay on the field.

    - Our pass rush is inconsistent, which might seem odd given that we have two pro bowl pass rushers on our squad. Von Miller is a beast, and Elvis Dumervil is very good at getting sacks, but it's been tough getting consistent pressure. We might have the best pass rush in the league when up by a few scores, but that will be tough to do against your team...the first half pressure has been tamed somewhat by quick passes.

    - One of the largest problems is our ability to "follow through." There have been a lot of would-be stops on the running back in the backfield, that ended up turning into a 4-5 yard gains. Too many destroying the offense on first and second down, and then giving up a first down on 3rd and 15. Too many "almost sacks" and too many great drives that end in field goals. These things, I suspect, will decide our fate against you guys this week.
  9. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Welcome back RYObroncosfan, good to hear from you again.

    cmc0605:
    :welcome:


    Thanks much to both of you for your detailed thoughts and analysis - it's very much appreciated.
  10. Creative Username

    Creative Username Rookie

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    What's the spread in this game? Are we favoured or are the Broncos?
    Just interesting info for me to get through the week 'till sunday
  11. RYObroncosfan

    RYObroncosfan Rookie

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    Initial spread is a little high I thought, but it's the Pats -7 with action leaning slightly towards Denver.

    I'm going to guess it closes around Pats -6/-6.5
  12. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Pats Oline has played great past 2 weeks and i expect them to give brady plenty of time again....which will translate into brady exploiting that D just like in the playoffs last year. Just stop manning on a few drives and we should be good. Our run D is good so they won't be running all over us
  13. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That was my reaction also.

    Brady is better, stronger and actually more nimble than ever before.
  14. Kid~Brady

    Kid~Brady Rookie

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    Lol, Manning can do the same thing and will if we can't generate any pressure.
  15. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    this isn't the manning of old...still rusty and not on same page as his WRs
  16. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Pats opened as 7½ point favorites but it's down to 7, I guess based on people being impressed with Denver's 37-6 beatdown of Oakland. That number seems to be a bit high to me, I would think it would drop at least another point.

    Vegas Insider | NFL Odds
  17. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    I honestly think he's better than he was as a 28 year old. He's more accurate now. Really, you're talking about 2006? Brady has upped his game by a lot. He wasn't this good in his younger years. He is carrying the team now.

    Since you're a Broncos fan, your post perplexes me. John Elway was a mile better post 35 than he was in his late 20s. In his late 20s, Elway used to drill the ball into the ground on out patterns constantly. The guy couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. And then suddenly, post 35, he became the best QB in football.
  18. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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  19. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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  20. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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    Nice try.

    Patriots 38 :D

    Broncos 28 :(
  21. Zeus

    Zeus PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Brady is a better player right now than he was seven years ago, mostly because his understanding of the game allows the Patriots offense to do things most other teams wouldn't even dream of trying.
  22. MoneyFX

    MoneyFX Rookie

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    Good ol' fashioned shootout like we all were used to seeing in the early-mid 2000s with the Colts and Pats. Brady and Peyton throw 3 TDs each. Patriots go up big early and Broncos make a comeback. Peyton forces and makes a critical mistake late in the game. Patriots use the running game to put the game away.

    Patriots 33
    Broncos 27
  23. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    I am guessing a lower scoring game then most here think

    Winning team will score about 27 IMO
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2012
  24. CityOfChampions

    CityOfChampions Rookie

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    Says who? Brady still looks like the best QB in the league to me. :cool:
  25. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'd take Rodgers over him today, and there's a few guys I'd take over him if I was building a team for the future, but Brady's decline has been barely noticeable. Manning's decline could be seen even in 2010, and while he's still a good QB, he's far off of what he used to be. Brady didn't exactly light the world on fire to start 2009, though, so it could just be a matter of shaking off the rust still.
  26. RYObroncosfan

    RYObroncosfan Rookie

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    I'll concede to this. I do think it's 3/4 shaking off rust, 1/4 losing a little bit of what he once had.

    Anyway, no need to nit pick, my main point was that Brady is still a dominant QB and I think Peyton is too. So Brady hasn't lost anything, fine. ;)
  27. PATS16N0

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    Your prediction is a joke.

    Bill Belichick and Tom Brady used to hand Manning his ass back to him and leave him with the patented Peyton pouty-face on the sideline on a regular basis.

    Manning didn't get his first win against Brady until once in the 2005 season and then once in the 2006 season which was the season that the Patriots completely stripped their team of virtually all of its offense until the next season which Brady made Manning one of his 16-0 victims.

    Everything beyond that is a wash because Brady was injured and then rehabilitating his injury in 2009.

    Bottom line is: Brady owns Peyton. Belichick owns Peyton Manning.

    We absolutely humiliated you last year in the post season in record shattering fashion. I don't think you bringing in a broken down Peyton as some sort of quarterback mercenary is going to help you in the slightest.

    My prediction: Brady torches the Denver defense and Peyton throws 3 interceptions.

    Total blow out.
  28. PATS16N0

    PATS16N0 Rookie

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    Rodgers hasn't done squat this season. He had one stand out year last year after the lock out noticeably hurt defenses all around the league. It was no coincidence that two quarterbacks (Brees and Brady) both broke Marino's passing record last year, the same year Rodgers played well. As the season went on, Rodgers got less and less impressive, in a few games just outright stunk, then went one and done in the post season.

    This year his over rated Packers got dominated by the Niners, couldn't even blow out the Bears at home who gave them every opportunity to do so, lost to Seattle and just barely got past the now 0-4 Saints after a missed field goal that had Rodgers jumping around on the sidelines like a cheer leader.

    Brady > Rodgers.

    By far.

    The talking head media that proclaimed Rodgers the second coming and the Packers a guarantee for the Superbowl are the same cast of characters that called Sanchez an elite quarterback in 2010. Rodgers is the anti-Brady for the Patriot hating NY media. Don't believe the hype.

    He's good. He's no GOAT.
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2012
  29. CityOfChampions

    CityOfChampions Rookie

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    Then you should change your username :p. Rodgers is good, but Brady is still better. I wouldn't mind if Brady could run like Rodgers, but that's about it. Besides last year Rodgers has done nothing to impress me much. Brady has been great for a decade now. Assuming you've watched most of the Packers games this year, you think Rodgers looks better than Brady? A lot of his throws are way off target.

    2012 season:
    Rodgers 7 TD's, 3 INT, 1064 YD's, 95.7 RAT.
    Brady 7 TD's, 1 INT, 1227 YD's, 102.4 RAT.

    Imagine if we weren't forcing a balance offense so much - Brady would have how many more TD's???
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2012
  30. cmc0605

    cmc0605 Rookie

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    Your absolute confidence is misplaced, and last I checked Denver is the only team with a winning record against NE in the Belichick-Brady era. I'm not using that as an argument though. Sure you owned us last year, and you may very well win again this week, but the arguments that Brady owns Manning (as if Brady were a linebacker or something) or that Belichick owns Manning are just as useless lines of thought as the Denver vs. NE statistic...it's ultimately irrelevant, and the surrounding teams are entirely different.

    One notable difference is that the NE defense is not what it used to be back in the Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Seymour, Ty Law, etc type days. Another is that you will see much different type of receivers than back in the old Colt days. Rather than mugging the small guys like Marvin Harrison and blitzing Manning, you'll have to try that on a guy like Demaryius Thomas, someone as big and as hard to bring down as a Brandon Marshall type player. Still another is that we have a better running game that what Manning used.

    Regarding the comparisons to last year, NE most certainly did own the Broncos. However, very few people thought Denver should be in that game in the first place. We shouldn't have been, and Denver fans had a false sense of confidence owing to some absurd victories and help from a poor division. This is not the case this year. I'm not convinced we're super bowl ready yet, but we've lost by a combined 12 points to Houston and Atlanta...two super bowl quality teams. This team is not a pushover. Expect a good fight, win or lose.

    The other discussions on whether Manning or Brady have slowed down is rather beside the point, IMO. Both QBs still have the ability to tear apart a secondary. Both QBs know the game inside and out. Expect it to be close. Manning has never been someone with high mobility or a cannon arm in the first place.
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2012
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