Well it looks like the Colts cap management...

[patchick]

If a team was going to make a run at David, a 2nd round pick as opposed to a 4th round pick was not going to stop them.

Wow, that's a pretty big assumption that I don't agree with. A 2nd-round pick vs. a 4th is huge -- by the standard draft pick the Saints' 2nd rounder is worth 6 times more! The Jets might well have offered Gay a contract if the compensation were only a 4th, and the Colts wouldn't be getting much criticism at all if they'd picked up a 2nd in the process.

Looking around the league, almost every player who was expected to be a real contributor to his team was tendered at at least the 2nd-round level. David is a glaring exception. It was a strange decision if they wanted to keep him; and if they didn't want to keep him, what was their plan?

 

[Rob0729]

Doss-Blew out knee, game 6, never returned, signed for a mil.IF they valued him THAT much, they would have signed him.

Harper-injured and left game after 1 quarter versus Pats. Tried to go in SB, couldn't. If there is ONE guy I'd like to have back though, it's him.

David-Once HARPER was gone, it WOULD have been nice to make more of an attempt to keep a starter. I guess for another $500,000 grand, the could have upped the ante to a second rounder and made it more difficult for another team to sign him.

June-As a team, these guys finally DID put it together as a TEAM. I think it had more to do with the D-LINE changing their upfield rush on every down, AND Sanders' return. June was abysmal in many regular season games. Even the playoffs (AFCCG and SB) yielded some breakdowns (Dillon 4th down jaunt, 11 yard td, T.Jones 52 yarder).

Reagor gone before the Donks game.

Simon didn't play all year.

Stokely has been a ghost since '05. Has not played many games, so last year, they did it without him.

Rhodes would also be nice to have, but so would have Edge. I think they are effective splitting time. I think the Colts like Dorsey, but perhaps they'll take a RB with a 3rd round pick.

All in all, regardless of how poor the D was, a starter IS a starter, I get that. Of those mentioned, Harper, David and June are the missing starters. They have guys who last year saw plenty of action that will move to those starting spots. Depth is hurt, but obviously, they will have to draft for those spots.

What starter that the Colts lost would you want for your NEW ENGLAND team?

Year in and year out, it's replenishing through the draft for the most part. If they stumble and pick a bust, it hurts. But Polian doesn't just wake up on draft day and say, oh ****, what do we do now? He thinks things through,knows what is on the horizon, and does what he can to plan long term. It remains to be seen how good/bad the defense is next year. IMO, they will NOT play every game like a playoff game, BUT, I don't think you'll see any 375 yard rushing days either. Once again, they'll rely on the offense to put up more points than the opponents.

I think you are sugar coating things a bit. Yes, Polian does a good job drafting, but he doesn't have a full arsenal of draft picks this year since he lost the second round pick for Booger McFarland.

 

[He Ban Me]

I think you are sugar coating things a bit. Yes, Polian does a good job drafting, but he doesn't have a full arsenal of draft picks this year since he lost the second round pick for Booger McFarland.

Not having the second hurts for sure, but I wouldn't do it any different (except maybe offering a 3rd rounder for Booger). The Bucs had the leverage, so 2nd round is what it was, we have to live with that. The SB victory dictates that it was a good move. I DO like the fact that we have, in addition to our 1st rounder, a 3,3,4,4,5,5. Plenty of opportunity to pick up some quality contributors.

 

[Pat_Nasty]

NO, by MY theory, I wouldn't be screaming at you that the sky is falling if you lost Reche. He is REPLACEABLE, that's the point. If you lost your TOP TWO receivers, I wouldn't say the sky is falling, I'd say DAMN, they might actually improve at those positions. Believe me, I WANT the PATS to have Reche and Gaffney and Dillon on their team. Just as you might want us to have guys like David and June(well, maybe not June, he seems to be Brady's favorite receiver )

True, David is replaceable, as are Harper, June, Reagor, Simon, Doss, etc. None of the Colts' losses were truly exceptional players.

Still, as replaceable as they might be, you still need to actually replace them -- if David gets away, the Colts are down to Hayden and Jackson -- last year's backups -- at CB and Bethea and Sanders at S... and pretty much zero depth behind them. Considering the Colts' cap situation, these guys will either be replaced by rookies or bottom-of-the-barrel FAs.

And the secondary might not even be the Colts' biggest area of need on defense. With need for contributors on the defensive line and at linebacker, too, the Colts just don't have enough draft picks to replace all these "replaceable" players.

 

[He Ban Me]

True, David is replaceable, as are Harper, June, Reagor, Simon, Doss, etc. None of the Colts' losses were truly exceptional players.

Still, as replaceable as they might be, you still need to actually replace them -- if David gets away, the Colts are down to Hayden and Jackson -- last year's backups -- at CB and Bethea and Sanders at S... and pretty much zero depth behind them. Considering the Colts' cap situation, these guys will either be replaced by rookies or bottom-of-the-barrel FAs.

And the secondary might not even be the Colts' biggest area of need on defense. With need for contributors on the defensive line and at linebacker, too, the Colts just don't have enough draft picks to replace all these "replaceable" players.

I agree, bodies are bodies, and starters are starters. As far as the starting line up goes, I am comfortable with it (given the current Colt philosophy of stacking the offense).
Depth will be the issue. Against the stronger defensive teams, Colts may struggle. I still think they repeat as South champs and at minimum, get a homefield playoff game. After that, they will have to bring it all together like last season.

 

[spacecrime]

If a team was going to make a run at David, a 2nd round pick as opposed to a 4th round pick was not going to stop them.

JMO

Polian doesn't share your opinion, or he would have tendered David with a second round pick. Now he only gets a fourth round pick when David is signed.

 

[Rob0729]

Not having the second hurts for sure, but I wouldn't do it any different (except maybe offering a 3rd rounder for Booger). The Bucs had the leverage, so 2nd round is what it was, we have to live with that. The SB victory dictates that it was a good move. I DO like the fact that we have, in addition to our 1st rounder, a 3,3,4,4,5,5. Plenty of opportunity to pick up some quality contributors.

Yeah, but you lost like 4-6 starters/solid contributors. You can't rely on more than a couple second day picks to pan out. If you two or three players who are solid contributors/starters right away in any given draft; you had a great draft in today's NFL.

Despite the Super Bowl win, I feel the Colts were a worse team last year than the year before. Last season unlike many other seasons, they got better in the playoffs rather than trailing off. But overall, the Colts were significantly weaker especially on defense. I think this year they are even weaker yet again.

You can't lose 4-6 starters/solid contributors and then expect to replace them in one draft. The Colts might, but there are no guarantees.

 

[spacecrime]

This is not a big deal. The cap is no big deal. They are just going to reload in the draft. All the rookies will be big time contributers.

ha ha. good point. the time to reload in the draft for losing Harper, David, June, etc was last year. Except for RBs, FBs and top ten picks, don't count on rookies to contribute.

We all get lucky with late round picks once in a while, but for every pick in rounds three though seven that contribute as a rookie, there are many more that take a year before they contribute.

If you need a player for this year, look to free agency. If you anticipate a need for next year, use a day one draft pick this year. Looking for backups, depth, and future needs, take a flyer on a second day pick.

 

[He Ban Me]

Yeah, but you lost like 4-6 starters/solid contributors. You can't rely on more than a couple second day picks to pan out. If you two or three players who are solid contributors/starters right away in any given draft; you had a great draft in today's NFL.

Despite the Super Bowl win, I feel the Colts were a worse team last year than the year before. Last season unlike many other seasons, they got better in the playoffs rather than trailing off. But overall, the Colts were significantly weaker especially on defense. I think this year they are even weaker yet again.

You can't lose 4-6 starters/solid contributors and then expect to replace them in one draft. The Colts might, but there are no guarantees.

Doss, Reagor, and Simon were really NOT solid contributors, as they didn't even play half the season, let alone the playoffs. Regardless, yes, they are bodies that have to be replaced. In the end, Polian is not wearing a blindfold, he sees these things coming, and has done a pretty decent job keeping the Colts in the top tier. There's simply little room for error in the draft.

 

[37Harrison]

To me, this isn't really a story about cap management in matching the contract; it's pretty easy to structure a hard-to-match contract. I think the big story is tendering a valued RFA strangely low.

By all appearances they were counting on David to take over Harper's starting job. How do you tender a starter lower than the Pats tendered Randall Gay? The FA well is dry at CB and they already had some other pressing draft needs way down at #31. I don't get it.

I believe they tendered him so low because they wouldn't have been able to pay him what a 2nd round tender demands. Think about it, they aren't stupid, they now what each tender they offer will net them if another team matches/beats the colts offer and sign their guy. If they could've tendered him to get a 2nd they would have but then teams would know that the Colts wouldn't be able to pay him and just waited for the colts to release him or watch it blow up in their face. At least this way they will get something in return. This to me shows cap management problems. You can't offer something to someone if you don't have it.

 

[sebman2112]

may have bit them in the ass this time. From PFT:

SAINTS MAKE A PLAY FOR DAVID

Adam Schefter of NFL Network reports that the New Orleans Saints will sign Colts restricted free agent cornerback Jason David to an offer sheet.

The sheet will be signed on Thursday afternoon and presented to the Colts. Indy will have until next Thursday, April 26, to match the offer.

Schefter reports that the package is frontloaded, making it hard for the cap-heavy Colts to match (unless, say, Peyton Manning gives up some of his jack). Also, Schefter says it is expected to be the most lucrative offer sheet of the 2007 offseason.

If the Colts don't match, they'll get the Saints' fourth-round pick. New Orleans already has two others.

The Colts could have tendered David at a higher level to dissuade the Saints or anyone else from making an offer. If Indy doesn't match the offer, the Colts will have lost both starting cornerbacks since Super Bowl XLI. Nick Harper previously signed with the Titans. Harper started 15 regular season games in 2006, and David started in 16 of them.

Maybe Reggie Wayne can play both ways.

Finally, the deadline for signing restricted free agents is tomorrow, April 20.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm

So they will need to damage future cap structure to keep a guy like Jason David or lose yet another starter on defense. They have only the 32nd pick in the first two rounds in a poor CB draft to begin with. They couldn't get a deal done with Freeney and have resigned themselves to let him play for the franchise tender so his situation will be a problem next year.

Yes, Polian has done a very good job up until this point in keeping his team competitive. I wonder if his overpaying for offensive star talent will start to catch up with him. It sure looks like it is this season at least.

The Colts don't have a second round pick. They have one first, 2 thirds (95&98), 2 fourths (131&136), 2 fifths (169&173), 1 seventh (242).

If they get the Saints fourth they would then have three fourth round picks.

 

[sebman2112]

Wow, that's a pretty big assumption that I don't agree with. A 2nd-round pick vs. a 4th is huge -- by the standard draft pick the Saints' 2nd rounder is worth 6 times more! The Jets might well have offered Gay a contract if the compensation were only a 4th, and the Colts wouldn't be getting much criticism at all if they'd picked up a 2nd in the process.

Looking around the league, almost every player who was expected to be a real contributor to his team was tendered at at least the 2nd-round level. David is a glaring exception. It was a strange decision if they wanted to keep him; and if they didn't want to keep him, what was their plan?

The Colts cap space before all the contract restrutures was down to something like 2M, so that might be the reason they didn't extend the higher tender?

 

[He Ban Me]

The Colts cap space before all the contract restrutures was down to something like 2M, so that might be the reason they didn't extend the higher tender?

I think they were down to 3mil. I think the Simon situation being unresolved, as well as Freeney, might have contributed to their being hamstrung.

My hope is that those get resolved, the draft well defensively, and they sign Barlow.

 

[Gon_Trevil]

They're not going to reload just through this draft. They have some previous high picks (Marlin Jackson, for one) that were on the bench and will now have a chance to start.

 

[sebman2112]

They're not going to reload just through this draft. They have some previous high picks (Marlin Jackson, for one) that were on the bench and will now have a chance to start.

Marlin Jackson actually started a little last year. Problem is they expected to have Marlin Jackson and Jason David as their two startes, but now David will likely be gone. Doss's departure doesn't hurt except for depth, because Bathea was playing good down the stretch, and they obviously have Bob Sanders. As I said though it will really hurt their depth, and I think they are beig hit especially hard at LB.

 

[coltsfan]

may have bit them in the ass this time. From PFT:

SAINTS MAKE A PLAY FOR DAVID

Adam Schefter of NFL Network reports that the New Orleans Saints will sign Colts restricted free agent cornerback Jason David to an offer sheet.

The sheet will be signed on Thursday afternoon and presented to the Colts. Indy will have until next Thursday, April 26, to match the offer.

Schefter reports that the package is frontloaded, making it hard for the cap-heavy Colts to match (unless, say, Peyton Manning gives up some of his jack). Also, Schefter says it is expected to be the most lucrative offer sheet of the 2007 offseason.

If the Colts don't match, they'll get the Saints' fourth-round pick. New Orleans already has two others.

The Colts could have tendered David at a higher level to dissuade the Saints or anyone else from making an offer. If Indy doesn't match the offer, the Colts will have lost both starting cornerbacks since Super Bowl XLI. Nick Harper previously signed with the Titans. Harper started 15 regular season games in 2006, and David started in 16 of them.

Maybe Reggie Wayne can play both ways.

Finally, the deadline for signing restricted free agents is tomorrow, April 20.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm

So they will need to damage future cap structure to keep a guy like Jason David or lose yet another starter on defense. They have only the 32nd pick in the first two rounds in a poor CB draft to begin with. They couldn't get a deal done with Freeney and have resigned themselves to let him play for the franchise tender so his situation will be a problem next year.

Yes, Polian has done a very good job up until this point in keeping his team competitive. I wonder if his overpaying for offensive star talent will start to catch up with him. It sure looks like it is this season at least.

Where do you get the fact that they have resigned themselves to let him play with the tender? I still think that there's a good shot that he's re-signed before training camp.

Overpaying offensive talent? LOL. Look at some of the contracts out there this offseason, and we'll see who's overpaying. I'd much rather overpay for hall of famers than mediocrity.

Polian made a move that is biting him in the @ss now by not giving David the 2nd round tender, but that had little to do with the cap. We're talking about a difference of $450K, here which is easily affordable.

 

[coltsfan]

Doss-Blew out knee, game 6, never returned, signed for a mil.IF they valued him THAT much, they would have signed him.

Harper-injured and left game after 1 quarter versus Pats. Tried to go in SB, couldn't. If there is ONE guy I'd like to have back though, it's him.

David-Once HARPER was gone, it WOULD have been nice to make more of an attempt to keep a starter. I guess for another $500,000 grand, the could have upped the ante to a second rounder and made it more difficult for another team to sign him.

June-As a team, these guys finally DID put it together as a TEAM. I think it had more to do with the D-LINE changing their upfield rush on every down, AND Sanders' return. June was abysmal in many regular season games. Even the playoffs (AFCCG and SB) yielded some breakdowns (Dillon 4th down jaunt, 11 yard td, T.Jones 52 yarder).

Reagor gone before the Donks game.

Simon didn't play all year.

Stokely has been a ghost since '05. Has not played many games, so last year, they did it without him.

Rhodes would also be nice to have, but so would have Edge. I think they are effective splitting time. I think the Colts like Dorsey, but perhaps they'll take a RB with a 3rd round pick.

All in all, regardless of how poor the D was, a starter IS a starter, I get that. Of those mentioned, Harper, David and June are the missing starters. They have guys who last year saw plenty of action that will move to those starting spots. Depth is hurt, but obviously, they will have to draft for those spots.

What starter that the Colts lost would you want for your NEW ENGLAND team?

Year in and year out, it's replenishing through the draft for the most part. If they stumble and pick a bust, it hurts. But Polian doesn't just wake up on draft day and say, oh ****, what do we do now? He thinks things through,knows what is on the horizon, and does what he can to plan long term. It remains to be seen how good/bad the defense is next year. IMO, they will NOT play every game like a playoff game, BUT, I don't think you'll see any 375 yard rushing days either. Once again, they'll rely on the offense to put up more points than the opponents.

Excellent post. As you said, Harper was the biggest loss from an ability standpoint and the David move may have been a mistake just b/c we could have kept him for only $450K more.

You would think David was some great player though based on all of these posts. Pat fans must not have watched closely the last two years, but it seemed to me that Brady specifically attacked David (and with a lot of success) in those games.

 

[coltsfan]

Looking around the league, almost every player who was expected to be a real contributor to his team was tendered at at least the 2nd-round level. David is a glaring exception. It was a strange decision if they wanted to keep him; and if they didn't want to keep him, what was their plan?

I disagree with Miguel in this case b/c I don't think a team would have given up a 2nd round pick for David.

I don't know, I agree with you that this decision may come back to bite the Colts in the butt. If it was a high 4th round pick, I would be happier than with a low one. I think it all depends on Marlin Jackson. If he can be a decent starting CB, then the move will turn out to be fine. I'm just not convinced that Jackson isn't a better safety than corner.

 

[Rob0729]

Where do you get the fact that they have resigned themselves to let him play with the tender? I still think that there's a good shot that he's re-signed before training camp.

Overpaying offensive talent? LOL. Look at some of the contracts out there this offseason, and we'll see who's overpaying. I'd much rather overpay for hall of famers than mediocrity.

Polian made a move that is biting him in the @ss now by not giving David the 2nd round tender, but that had little to do with the cap. We're talking about a difference of $450K, here which is easily affordable.

From USAToday:
Colts president Bill Polian now expects Dwight Freeney to play this season under the one-year, $9.4 million franchise tender.

"Right now, they're frozen," Polian said regarding long-term contract talks with Freeney. "We made an offer prior to free agency and the agent chose not to respond to it. There is still time to get a deal done, the deadline is July 15, so we'll just have to wait and see what happens."

http://usatoday.sandboxplus.com/2005/news/content/clubhouse_home.asp?sport=NFL&majteam=IND

Tell me when Marvin Harrison starts to break down due to age and still is one of the highest paid WRs with a lot of dead money and multiple years to go if Polian didn't over pay for him. In the next couple of years, he will still be paid like a Hall of Famer and be an average to mediocre player. You can then pay for Hall of Fame mediocrity.

Personally, I would rather have a bunch of solid players than a handful of Hall of Famers and a bunch of JAGs. I think the Colts were lucky they pulled their defense together when they did and I don't think they can expect to do that year after year.

Polian did make a cap mistake because it made it easy for the Saints to make an offer to David that the Colts couldn't match without any poison pills. Also, the Colts lost three starters on defense and one on offense and no cap to get more than veteran minimum players in to replace them or at the very least provide insurance if the rookies that Polian drafted doesn't pan out.

 

[coltsfan]

Still, as replaceable as they might be, you still need to actually replace them -- if David gets away, the Colts are down to Hayden and Jackson -- last year's backups -- at CB and Bethea and Sanders at S... and pretty much zero depth behind them. Considering the Colts' cap situation, these guys will either be replaced by rookies or bottom-of-the-barrel FAs.

No, the Colts also have last year's 2nd round pick, Tim Jennings, at CB. And the 4th round pick from '05, Matt Giordano, at safety. I agree with you that the depth is still lacking, but just wanted to point out those two guys. I thought Jennings was pretty good in college at Georgia, and we'll see what he can do now that he's over his injury. Giordano has actually played pretty well whenever he's been on the field.